Chicago Bears

Five Keys to the Packers Returning to the Playoffs

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 01:40:34 +0000

On ESPN's NFL Live Monday, June 29, 2009, both analysts (Cris Carter and James Hasty) said Green Bay was the non-playoff team from 2008 most likely to make the playoffs in 2009. There are few times a 6-10 team can enter the next season as a team that is widely considered a contender to not only make the playoffs, but win their division.

But the Packers outplayed their division rivals head-to-head, going no worse than 1-1 against any team and outscoring all three. They also have the history of dominating their division, winning seven of the last 14 titles.

Plus, with the NFL's parity, it is not unheard of, either. Last season was the first in the short history of the NFC South that the last-place team did not win the division the next year (other than the first season of the division, with no incumbent last-place team).

However, all three other teams in the NFC North have improved in the off-season. Therefore, the Packers need some things to fall in place to make the playoffs; here are the top five keys to the Packers returning to the post-season:

1. Can the Packers' young offensive line hold together?

There are several players the Packers are looking to step up and either take over a starting position or elevate their game to the level it needs to be. Among those who were not on the field last season are T.J. Lang and Breno Giacomini, and others who may be in the mix for starting are Tony Moll, Allen Barbre, Jason Spitz, Josh Sitton, and Daryn Colledge. Incumbents Scott Wells and Chad Clifton struggled with injuries and may lose their spots if they are not healthy this season.

2. How quickly can the Packers defense adjust to the new 3-4 system?

The Packers will have three players with new responsibilities, the most drastic being Pro Bowl defensive end Aaron Kampman moving to outside linebacker (where he has not played since college). But either DE Jeremy Thompson or 4-3 outside linebackers Brady Poppinga or Clay Matthews III (a rookie) will play the other spot, and Johnny Jolly or Justin Harrell will be moving from the inside to play end.

3. Will Pat and Kevin Williams have their suspensions reduced by a favourable Minnesota court?

Both players were able to play at the end of last season as a Minnesota court conveniently ruled their suspensions should be delayed for an investigation. This was almost unprecedented, and could be repeated as the final decision is once again in the hands of a court within the team's fan base. If the four games are reduced, the two will be available when the Packers come to town.

4. Will Brett Favre be healthy and if he is, how quickly will he acquire chemistry with his new teammates?

Favre has struggled mightily at the end of the past four seasons, throwing just 15 TDs and 39 picks in the 17 games from Thanksgiving on. But Favre is a definite upgrade over Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels. If he clicks as quickly in Minnesota as he did in New York last season, the Vikings can win in week four even without the Williams Tackle Tandem.

5. How much of a difference will Jay Cutler make for the Chicago Bears?

Cutler will not likely have a Brandon Marshall-quality receiver to throw to for the Bears, who have no receivers on their roster who could even crack the Packers top-four. This could mean Cutler struggles to perform at a much higher level than Kyle Orton did in 2008, but if the Bears can get significantly more out of the quarterback position than they did last year (a 9-7 season), they are probably in the playoffs, making the Packers that much less likely to earn a birth.

Broncos Should Re-Build

Thu, 18 Jun 2009 13:20:00 +0000

In just his third year in the league, Jay Cutler threw for 4,526 yards and 25 touchdowns. While he also threw for 18 interceptions, Cutler's aggressive mentality at the quarterback position is what makes him such a good player. Nearly the definition of a franchise quarterback, Cutler's gritty, competitive attitude has brought him up the the elite status as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. So when the Denver Broncos decided to give in to Cutler's trade demand this offseason, and ship him away to the Chicago Bears for two first-round picks, a third-round pick, and Kyle Orton, it really made you wonder what they were thinking and what their new plan was for the future.

While Cutler owned a 17-20 record as a starter, you have to remember that he's only entering his fourth year in the league. Stars don't grow overnight. It takes time to develop into a great player. Cutler was on his way to following in the footsteps on John Elway in leading the Broncos back to being one of the league's elite teams. Any chance of that happening ceased to exist once he was dealt to Chicago.

Denver had all of the pieces in place to put together one of the league's best offenses. With an excellent offensive line, led by two young tackles Ryan Clady and Ryan Harris, along with one of the NFL's top young receivers in Brandon Marshall, this team was ready to be a consistent threat in the AFC for years to come.

In the past few days, word has now come out that the Marshall, an outstanding receiver who has compiled 2,590 yards and 13 touchdowns in the past two years alone, also is asking for a trade out of Denver. While his exact reasoning isn't clear, it has been made known that Denver has at least considered the option of trading him.

In next April's 2010 NFL Draft, Denver currently holds just Chicago's pick in the first round. However, in addition to adding Georgia running back Knowshon Moreno and Tennessee defensive end Robert Ayers in the 2009 first round, the Broncos opted to trade their first-round pick in 2010 in order to move up and select Wake Forest cornerback Alphonso Smith in the 2009 second round.

Now, with Chicago's first round pick next year, it would make sense to try and add to their collection of picks. By holding a "fire-sale" and choosing to turn into re-building mode, the Broncos could essentially net a first-and-third round picks in return for Marshall. The Baltimore Ravens are one team that has drawn discussion regarding a potential trade. The Ravens, who are arguably one or two pieces away from competing for a Super Bowl, could use the playmaking ability that Marshall would bring at the receiver position. Adding weapons for their franchise quarterback Joe Flacco makes a lot of sense.

Current starting quarterback Kyle Orton is not the answer. He was a situational starter in Chicago who had one decent season with the Bears. In the NFL, every team's goal is to win the Super Bowl. Does Kyle Orton strike you as a player that is going to lead your team to a Super Bowl victory? Not to me.

As a one-to-two year holdover, the Broncos could allow Orton to start, while drafting one of the two or three potential franchise quarterbacks that will be available in the 2010 Draft, one that could include Oklahoma's Sam Bradford, Mississippi's Jevan Snead, Texas' Colt McCoy, and Florida's Tim Tebow. This player could sit behind Orton and learn from him before taking over as the starter in a couple of years, similar to what the Broncos did with Jake Plummer and Jay Cutler when Cutler entered the league.

Denver's defense is not good enough to allow them to compete with the best teams in the AFC. Their team is built around the quarterback's success; but when you have a quarterback who hasn't had that great of success in the NFL, you're set up to have a losing season.

Re-building and shaping their team around the young players that they already have (Moreno, Clady, Harris, Eddie Royal) is the best way to go. Doing the right thing isn't something the Broncos are used to; trading Jay Cutler proved that.

NFL Crystal Ball: Denver Broncos will eventually win the Jay Cutler trade

Mon, 15 Jun 2009 07:00:00 -0500

It's not going to happen overnight, it's not going to be obvious, and it's probably never going to make up for the flack the team has caught this offseason. Nor should it. But, I feel safe in saying that the Denver Broncos are going to be better off with the plethora of picks they got from the Bears than with QB Jay Cutler.

Is there anything wrong with selling high?

The Broncos were universally criticized for getting rid of their franchise quarterback. I'm not going to argue against the point that says the Broncos traded the player who would have gone on to be the second best QB in franchise history. They did exactly that.

But certain pundits have taken that a step further to say that, "you can't replace a Jay Cutler". I'm sorry, really?

Jay Cutler has a career completion percentage of 62.5%. He throws 3 TDs for every 2 INTs. He has 7.4 Y/A for his career, which is good for 8th among active players. He's got a 17-20 career record as a starter.

Can't you replace that? Perhaps it's accurate to assert that the Broncos will not be replacing that in 2009, but you have roughly a 30-40% chance of picking a name out of a hat filled with quarterbacks who were first round picks in the last five drafts who can do that, easily.

One of the names of the active players with a greater Y/A than Cutler is Daunte Culpepper. Suppose that at the end of 2002, the Vikings were offered multiple first round picks, a mid round pick or two, and a competent NFL quarterback for Culpepper. Better or worse than turning around in three years and trading him for a second round pick?

The loot on Cutler was just preposterous. I'm sure the Bears don't particularly care about the first rounders they lost, but Bears fans now have unrealistic expectations for Jay Cutler, who is still growing into his role of an NFL quarterback. But given the fact that Cutler basically forced his way out of town, the Broncos' ability to turn the Cutler market into a sellers' market is one of the greatest business stories in the history of the NFL.

Replacing Jay Cutler

We can't make the Broncos spend their draft picks on elite players. In fact, from the Broncos perspective, all of the Jay Cutler picks have already been spent. They received LB Robert Ayers, CB Alphonzo Smith, and traded up to get TE Richard Quinn. That's it. The quality of the trade itself can't be graded by these players, only by the opportunity to draft these players. But, of course, if these players don't pan out, the Broncos don't really get anything from trading Jay Cutler.

Of course, the mere fact that the trade was made allowed the team to snag RB Knowshon Moreno with the 12th pick. Do you think the team would have gone RB if Cutler was still on the roster? I doubt it.

Moreno is only one piece of the puzzle to replace Jay Cutler in the Broncos offense. Eventually, the team will have to find another franchise type quarterback. They'll shuffle through guys like Kyle Orton, Chris Simms, and Tom Bradstater. But because they are free of the financial burden that Jay Cutler will command, trading Cutler gives them the right to go a different direction at the end of the season should none of the current guys play up to par.

That's really where the strategic value in trading Jay Cutler lies. There was speculative value for Cutler in Josh McDaniels' offense. He could have been a great quarterback there. But he also could have pulled a Rex Grossman under Ron Zook, and lost most of his value over one year. The Broncos were not taking a risk by trying to move Jay Cutler -- they were eliminating it.

From the Bears' side

Chicago jumped on the chance to land a potential franchise quarterback. Of course, the Bears, historically, had done a pretty decent job of winning with a revolving door at QB. So if the Bears were convinced that Jay Cutler is better than his early numbers suggest, you can't really knock them for paying the premium to get a great player.

But the Bears weren't buying just Cutler. They were/are buying Cutler, and the chance that Cutler's legend was a product of the prior Denver regime. They bought a lot of risk that has no resale value. Buying high is not a fundamentally sound business strategy. But it can pay off big time if you gamble and win.

Of course, the biggest knock against Bears G.M. Jerry Angelo is that he's a poor evaluator of offensive talent, and always has been. That's, of course, one of the reasons he drew rave reviews for his trade, and one of the biggest defenses for all the picks he gave away. 1) Cutler is a proven player, and 2) he would have wasted those picks on offensive busts anyway.

Point two is obviously a heavy dose of self-serving logic. Predicting that he not only wouldn't have used picks to bolster an aging defense is in itself a fallacy, but not as bad as using his inability to spot offensive talent as a defense for a move where he acquired offensive talent. That's a gap in logic. Cutler, is really, really not a proven player. He's a one time pro bowler who almost certainly beat out some more deserving players for the third spot. So he's one of the better QBs in the AFC, and when Tom Brady gets hurt, when people ignore great seasons from Phillip Rivers and Chad Pennington, and when David Garrard/Derek Anderson/Carson Palmer put in below average seasons, then he's debatably a pro-bowler. That's a proven commodity if I've ever seen it. Well, at least he was better than Brett Favre last year.

None of these points mitigate that the Bears are taking a huge risk justifiable only by the scouting instinct of those who have so often failed to identify QB talent in this league. But once you look past that, the Bears have major upside on this trade, and let's face it, opportunities like this are roughly generational.

Why the Broncos will win

In many ways, I think the Broncos have already won the deal. They were a young team who, at the expense of trading a franchise QB, managed to get even younger and loaded with high upside talent. The rest of the deal hinges on their ability to locate an above average NFL QB and get him under a long term contract within the next four years or so.

For the Bears, it's much more simple. Jay Cutler needs to make Bears fans forget about all their QB struggles over the last few years. He's got to be the best QB in their division. He has to outplay Aaron Rodgers. He has to make pro bowls consistently. And he has to spearhead a passing game that will help the Bears win ball games over the next eight years or so.

That's why I feel the Broncos have the inside track on this deal. Both teams are getting what they need as franchises. But what the Broncos are getting (younger and more talented) is closer to historically successful than what the Bears are getting (a highly touted prospect at a premium position). And that's why I think history gives an edge to the Broncos.

NFL Top 10: Best Storylines heading into 2009

Sat, 06 Jun 2009 18:55:00 -0500

I really love spending hours putting together the research for a long-winded heavy analytical post, but sometimes, a fan needs to appreciate the game from a different perspective. This isn't going to provide any insight into why teams will win and lose this year, but because it's June, and we're two months from training camp, I'll forgive myself.

Today, NFL Top 10 takes a look at the best storylines entering 2009, as well as those potential developing storylines that could shape the upcoming NFL season.

10. Ray Lewis, Rex Ryan, and defense in the AFC
If the Baltimore Ravens are going to make good on my super bowl appearance prediction, they can't allow the media to even speculate that they might be missing Rex Ryan. The effect of defensive coordinator on a team's defense has certainly been overstated throughout the years, so we'll never know if the Ravens are actually missing Rex Ryan. They need a great defensive season from start to finish to dispel the argument that they will miss him. Meanwhile, the Jets will only be relevant this year if they can rely on their running game. And they will only be able to call on their running game if their defense is top notch. I think the expectations are still higher in Baltimore than they are for the Jets. But with three wins in September, Rex Ryan can change the expectations. Be warned.

9. Will Jason Campbell prove Dan Snyder wrong?
What we know -- the Redskins had significant interest in both Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez at different points this offseason. To their credit, they never publicly acted as if they were disappointed with Jason Campbell's development, but I don't think they were convincing enough with their non-action to dispel rumors. Anyway, Jason Campbell has one thing going for him, and that's the fact that he survived a Dan Snyder shopping spree while keeping his job. There's no actual precedent for that happening, but Campbell, for now, has the full backing of the organization, and all eyes will be on him to prove management foolish for entertaining other ideas this offseason.

8. Adrian Peterson
Can this happen? Will Adrian Peterson have three consecutive 1,300 yard seasons to begin his career? But more importantly, will Peterson develop to the point at which he can offer more value to his team than the occasional explosive play and consistent 5.0 yard rushing average. Obviously, the passing woes for the Vikings are really not Peterson's fault, but he hasn't exactly helped out his team with top notch pass blocking, and he's averaging fewer than 200 yards a year in the passing game. If Peterson becomes an all purpose option this season, the Vikings should return to the playoffs. If he posts another empty 1,200 yard with a middling 8-10 TDs, well, let's hold off on the coronation.

7. After 0-16, how long will the Lions losing streak last?
The Lions have a pretty brutal pre-bye schedule, but their first two opponents: New Orleans and Minnesota should not take them lightly. The Lions are looking at a team with a struggling run defense, and another team that could be missing both of it's all pro defensive tackles. Last year, the Lions' season got off on the wrong foot when the Falcons and 49ers shredded them on the ground, and this year, the Lions will snap their losing streak when their ground game starts to chew up it's competition. If history suggests anything, it's that it won't take them very long.

6. T.O. and North America's Team
The Bills have not really had this much firepower since they had a top defense in 2004, only to watch Drew Bledsoe and the Pittsburgh Steelers' second teamers dashed their playoff hopes. But, for the first time in 5 years, the talent to compete is on the roster. Like most small market teams, they are not without holes, specifically on the offensive line, but Trent Edwards' inconsistencies should be tempered now that he's throwing to two very established receivers. The defense should be typically strong under Dick Jauron, and the Bills can pound the rock, so this season is all about the passing game and the health of a somewhat thin offense. T.O. is somewhat of a 6 million dollar side show, but the increased attention will be very welcome for the Bills.

5. Will Drew Brees solidify his place among the games' elite?
Daunte Culpepper. Donovan McNabb. Carson Palmer. Tony Romo. Since Tom Brady and Peyton Manning exploded onto the NFL scene in 2004 as the two quarterbacks that every personnel evaluator would most like to have behind center, the pundits have attempted to christen a third member to this elite class every year. It hasn't worked. None of the names listed above have consistently produced at at elite level worthy of the highest of expectations. Drew Brees is looking to change all that this season. Another 4,000 yard season in which Brees takes the Saints back to the top of the NFC would mean that Brees should be mentioned in the same breath as Brady or Manning, who are the hall of fame quarterbacks from this era. We're that close to be talking about Drew Brees as a hall of fame level quarterback. You get the feeling if he's ever going to get to that level, this is going to be the year for Brees and the Saints.

4. Whilst the Steelers repeat?
That team that won the NFL Championship last year, the Steelers, return all the crucial parts of their playoff machine from last year. So the main question here is: who, if anyone, can topple these guys? History says the Steelers will not repeat, because just because you beat all 31 other teams to the Super Bowl title one year does not guarantee you success over any one team the following year. The odds are stacked against every team at the beginning of the year, super bowl champs included. But the Patriots did win 3 Super Bowls this decade. Is it even possible that a team who won three super bowls might not be remembered as the dominant team of the decade? The Steelers have a once-in-a-lifetime shot to do just that. Is it possible? It's not like the Redskins or Giants are considered the team of the 80's, nor were the Raiders or Cowboys considered the team of the 70's. No decade has ever seen two different teams win three super bowls, and the only ten year span in which two teams won three titles each were the 49ers and Cowboys from the late to mid 90's. The Steelers look to make history with the Pats this year.

3. Jay Cutler/Josh McDaniels
Jay Cutler's wish to be cut free from the tyranny of a 33 year old head coach he had yet to meet before may have adverse effects on his career in the long run. Jay Cutler was basically guaranteed long term success with the Denver Broncos. However, with Chicago, it's going to feel a lot like his college days with Vandy. Understand, the Bears have talented players on offense with Cutler, but it's not at all like Denver, when every player the Broncos roster was capable of stepping up when called on. Cutler is going to find himself frustrated with the limitations of Devin Hester, with the never-ending search to find a go-to third down receiver, with Desmond Clark's maddening inconsistencies, with an offensive line that will blow simple protections from time to time, and with a running game that will go AWOL for month-long periods. Meanwhile, McDaniels has an incredibly promising offense, but he's basically given up on it's two most dependable players: Cutler and TE Tony Sheffler. So for McDaniels, his key will be developing a super star or two out of a bunch that includes Kyle Orton, Knowshon Moreno, and Brandon Marshall. Good luck and godspeed, coach. You've got the best chance to win this trade, but you better hope for the best...and that someone tackles on defense this year.

2. The Colts' Playoff streak in limbo
Since Tony Dungy came to Indianapolis in 2002, the Indy Colts have posted the following EA Sports-like win totals: 10, 12, 12, 14, 12, 13, 12. I mean, holy God. They've made the playoffs 7 out of 7 years, in the prime years of the greatest quarterback to ever play the game. 6 consecutive 12 wins seasons. 9 playoff appearances in the last ten years. Put it this way: The Indy Colts of the last 7 years are every bit the comparable to the Atlanta Braves, 1991-2005. But Dungy is gone, Marvin Harrison is gone, Ron Meeks is gone, and at least temporarily, Howard Mudd and Tom Moore are gone. The only QB in NFL history who compares to Manning, Dan Marino, had a prime of his career that, while not as impressively consistent as Manning, lasted though age-34 (1995) before he lost his all-worldly level of play.

That would suggest Manning has two more years at this insane level of productivity. But Peyton's hallmark has been that incredible consistency: if he plays to whatever age Brett Favre does without missing a start, he will break his consecutive starts record. But the one certainty in sports is that the last years of a super star will be played at a lower productivity level than his middle years. Even, yes, in the case of Barry Sanders. The big question here is that, if Peyton Manning plays at a 9 or 10 win level this year instead of a 12 or 13 win level, are the Colts good enough to pick him up and make the playoffs again. If not, the streak is in jeopardy, again.

1. The Patriots vs. the World
While the questions around Manning circle around how long he will be able to play at a never seen before level of play, Tom Brady has to prove he can pick up exactly where he left off. Brady's window to win championships will last about three more seasons. And he returns in 2009 with a cast of receivers that he has never lost with in regular season play. Again, Manning enters this season with a quite wonder about his remarkable abilities, but his expectation is much lower. With Brady, it's almost as if 12-4 and anything short of a championship season and 1st team all-pro status would mark a disappointment for the young QB. If Matt Cassel can go 10-5, Brady should be good for at least 13 wins. Or so the logic goes. Tom Brady will ultimately be judged by how he does in the postseason, but it looks like the only team on the Pats' schedule this year that will beat them is themselves.

NFL Top 10: Most Valuable Chicago Bears

Wed, 27 May 2009 17:20:00 -0500

The Bears made the biggest splash of the entire offseason when they landed Jay Cutler in a blockbuster trade with the Denver Broncos. But where will Cutler rank among the top players on the Chicago Bears? Is he truly the centerpiece of the Bears' offense? NFL Top 10 investigates these questions, today.

10. C Olin Kreutz
I do think Olin Kreutz has enjoyed a somewhat overrated career because as a young, talented Center in the NFC, he kept getting trips to the pro bowl to represent the NFC, despite a long standing run of inconsistent play in the middle of the Bears' OL. Kreutz' best work came, in my opinion, during the 2005 season when he was by far the best player on a terrible offense that did just enough to make the playoffs that season. Since then, he's been about a league average center, but the veteran has remained a critical presence on the Bears line, and is probably still one of the ten most valuable players on the Bears.

9. G Josh Beekman
The only Chicago offensive lineman to be more productive than league average at his position happens to be the least known and youngest of the players on the Bears' OL. Beekman, a fourth year pro from Boston College, was a late round draft pick who impressed in his first camp, and stayed in the Bears' plans until the LG position opened up. Beekman has been great in that role with the Bears, and his presence allows the Bears to work some things around at the LT position, as they try to establish a long-term starter there.

8. TE Greg Olsen
Olsen is the most versatile playmaker on the Bears offense--he's the go-to guy here. Maybe the best player at his position in the entire offense, relative to league lists. Olsen brings a vertical element to the Bears' offense, although he is at his best when he works out of the slot as a receiver. He makes his money on third downs, where he is enemy number one for an opposing defense. If Tony Sheffler is any comparable, Olsen should enjoy a career year in 2009 with Jay Cutler throwing him passes.

7. DE Alex Brown
Alex Brown is the best of many defensive ends on the Bears. The 4th round draft pick in 2002 has become the Bears' best pure pass rusher. Coming out of Florida, the concern with Brown was that he wouldn't be able to defend the run well enough to succeed at the pro level, but currently, his run defense is one of the things that makes him the Bears' best defensive end. The Bears expect more sack production from him in 2009.

6. LB Brian Urlacher
If you go look at game tape of the identity of the Bears defense from 2005 and 2006, it's clear that the entire scheme was built around Urlacher. That's no longer true, and Urlacher is currently a declining player. It's a shame that when Urlacher was doing his best work for the Bears, he couldn't quite shape the "overrated" label. Perhaps it was deserved, perhaps not, but it certainly detracted from the fact that Urlacher was a borderline hall of famer entrenched in the best years of his career, and a lot of people couldn't enjoy his best years because of the constant criticism. His unit achieved all of their goals in 05 and 06, while hamstrung by a terrible offense. Urlacher has been fighting and playing through neck and back injuries for two straight seasons now, so don't be surprised if he shocks the world and hangs it up after 2009. Although if Jay Cutler has a promising year, he might just hang on a bit too long looking for that elusive ring.

5. RB Matt Forte
It says a lot about the Bears that Forte is not only their best option out of the backfield, but he is their number one receiving target on the outside when he lines up there as well. When the Bears drafted Forte, they overlooked much greater needs because the Bears offense centers around the concept of versatile football players who can be productive while lining up in many different places. Forte proved he could do that last year, and he chipped in with a 1,000 yard season as a rookie. Forte and Cutler are the future of offense in Chicago.

4. CB Charles Tillman
Charles Tillman is the most critical player on the Bears roster, because this is a very middling defense when Tillman is sidelined. But when he's on the field, they are a great unit. He's a legitimate No. 1 corner who would perhaps don the "shutdown" label if he could just stay healthy. Tillman is not just the most underrated player on the Bears, he's the most underated player in the NFC North.

3. DT Tommie Harris
Harris is a defensive tackle who gets credit for the amazing things he does on a football field. He can get pressure right up the middle, and he does great work against the run. Last year, it was injuries that prevented him from making another pro bowl, but he's the one guy I would peg as most likely to return to, not Honolulu, but Miami this season. Harris is due for a 6 sack season for Chicago.

2. QB Jay Cutler
Jay Cutler arrives, instantly, as the most valuable player on the Bears offense, and combined with Forte's versatility, they now become a passing team under Cutler. Still, the Bears would be wise to understand that, even though they traded multiple key draft picks to Denver for Cutler, the Broncos were able to market Cutler to the rest of the league as something he is not: a pre-established franchise quarterback. What Cutler is: a young, promising quarterback, who teams feel can become a franchise type guy within the next year or two. So the Bears should not treat it as a foregone conclusion that he will solve all their offensive issues. Over time, yes, I think Cutler makes the Bears a legitimately good offensive team, although, the fact that they won't have a first round pick next year might slow the process.

1. LB Lance Briggs
It's the Bears, so no doubt the number one guy is going to be on defense. Briggs is one of the ten best linebackers in the game, and that's considering that a lot of superstars at the LB position are actually defensive ends playing the rush position in the 3-4 defense, and middle linebackers get most of the defensive pub. If there's an outside linebacker in the 4-3 who is better at what he does, I haven't seen him. Not since Derrick Brooks at least. Briggs plays the toughest position in the Bears defense, and he plays it to the best of his, or anyone elses ability.

The Bears 2009 Draft Class: Ready to Contribute

Wed, 13 May 2009 23:50:36 -0500

Draft classes are commonly graded both on immediate contribution and the number of starters produced. Despite the lack of first day picks, the 2009 Chicago Bears draft is likely to produce several starters who could see significant playing time in their rookie campaigns. This will not only be due to a lack of talent at certain positions, but also injury to existing starters and the talent of the rookies.

Juaquin Iglesias - WR
As the most obvious choice for this list, Iglesias will go into training camp as the favorite to win a starting wide receiver position. With the other receivers being Rashied Davis, Earl Bennett and fellow rookies Johnny Knox and Derek Kinder, the lack of competition will certainly create the opportunity for sizable playing time. As a reliable possession receiver, Iglesias is a good complement to a developed Devin Hester, reinforcing the need for Cutler-to-Hester to become a menacing threat beyond 20 yards. The circumstances appear to be on his side. Without a veteran presence, wide recievers coach Daryl Drake has said that the Bears coaching staff "may accelerate Iglesias' progress a bit." Assuming Iglesias progresses into a Bobby Engram type receiver, he could be a solid starter in future years.

D.J. Moore - CB
D.J. Moore is credited by many as being the steal of the 2009 draft for the Bears. After dropping out of 1st round consideration with many teams due to a 4.55 40 time, Moore fell to Chicago in the 4th round, giving them a strong candidate for nickelback. At the cornerback position, injuries to Charles Tillman and Nathan Vasher have required Trumaine McBride and Corey Graham to make a significant amount of starts in the last two seasons. Without injuries, both starting corners have often performed at less than exceptional levels. Even during the great defensive season of 2006, Charles Tillman received consistent criticism for getting beat deep, and these concerns are likely to remain as Tillman ages. Lovie Smith has laughed at the idea of moving Tillman to safety, but the injuries and decreasing effectiveness may provide the opportunity for D.J. Moore to start in the near future. Despite worries about his size at 5-9 and 192 pounds, Moore is already receiving praise in rookie camp for his ball skills and appears to be capable of getting ample playing time.

Jarron Gilbert - DT
At first glance, pool-jumping Jarron Gilbert looks to be a redundant pick for the Bears, already having Tommie Harris, Dusty Dvoracek, Anthony Adams and Marcus Harrison on the roster. Israel Idonije has been slimming down and is now primarily in the mix to spell Alex Brown at RE. Nonetheless, why does Gilbert have a chance to start with four other players at defensive tackle? The simple answer here is injuries. Dusty Dvoracek has ended each of his professional seasons on the injured reserve, and Tommie Harris has done his best to tarnish the hype surrounding Bears strength and conditioning coach Rusty Jones. Adams and Harrison will likely compete for the nose tackle position while Harris and Gilbert handle the 3-technique. Without injury, Gilbert will probably get a lot of playing time in the Bears' tackle rotation. Harris' history creates a likely scenario where Gilbert will be starting this year, and prolonged problems may leave him as the starter in years to come.

Al Afalava - S
The former Beaver Al "Alfalfa" Afalava was taken in the 6th round by the Bears. Chicago has released three aging, injury prone safeties in the last two years, and also has a history of immediately starting late round safeties (see Kevin Payne and Chris Harris). The incumbent strong safety Kevin Payne is coming off a strong rookie campaign where he recorded 88 tackles and 4 interceptions. Free agent acquisition Josh Bullocks has recently been a mainstay in the New Orleans defensive backfield, but is historically nearly immune to creating turnovers. The athletic cornerback-turned-safety Zach Bowman will also compete for the free safety position in training camp, and it probably isn't worth taking up space to analyze Craig Steltz's chances. Former top pick and kick returner Danieal Manning will also be in competition, but has failed to impress in his tenure with the bears. Alfalfa projects well at free safety, has a strong reputation as a hard-hitter and a few returns for touchdowns in his college career. While not the favorite to start at free safety, there is a strong possibility that Alfalfa will be a starter by the end of 2009.

The aforementioned four players have a strong chance to not only contribute in the 2009 season, but also start very quickly. Defensive end Henry Melton will probably get some action, but has to deal with Ogunleye, Brown, Idonije and Anderson. Linebacker Marcus Freeman would compete with Jamar Williams given an injury to Lance Briggs or Nick Roach, but will probably be mostly relegated to special teams in 2009. Lance Louis, a 7th round guard under consideration for playing tight end, may be implemented in certain packages if he makes the team, but shouldn't be a starter anytime soon. Overall, this draft could produce a few starters and role players and surprise many people with it's contribution both in 2009 and in coming years.

NFL Top 10: Coaches on the Hot Seat in '09

Wed, 13 May 2009 12:41:45 -0500

You know, I think there are only a handful of topics in sports that would make for great discussion on radio shows, or on blogs, that have no practical meaning in the real world. I think back to debates about running up the score: you'll get tons of callers in on a topic like that, putting in their two cents. Is is right? Did it happen? Does it matter?

Well, to me, I see the ever-present NFL Head Coaching Hot Seat as cut from the same mold. It's a debate partially on the merits of certain coaches, partially on the trends of certain owners hiring and firing patterns, and mostly on probability. Does it really matter if Coach 'X' is on the Hot Seat? We're not even wondering if he should be fired, we're asking if he should be/is in a position where you would consider a coaching change.

I don't have the answer to that question, but it sure is a fascinating topic. Here follows MVN Outsider's largely meaningless list of coaches who may or may not be on their way out at the end of the 2009 season.

10. Mike McCarthy, Green Bay
McCarthy enters his 4th year as the head coach of the Green Bay Packers, and after falling from 13 wins to 6 wins in just one offseason, McCarthy needs to show that 1) it wasn't his fault, and 2) he can get the Packers trending back in the right direction. Truth be told, it wasn't his fault the team lost ten games last year, but if they lose ten games again, it would be hard to argue he should keep his job.

9. Jim Zorn, Washington
Jim Zorn is a second year head coach, but has been handed a ready-to-win team that figures to be much better than last year's 8-8 team. By no means is the Redskins roster without flaw, not even without major flaw, but the expectations in the beltway mean that Zorn has to oversee a team that improves over last years first promising, but ultimately disappointing effort. Owner Dan Snyder isn't married to the idea of having a big name coach, but won't have the patience to see Zorn through another streak of 6 losses in 8 tries.

8. Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville
Del Rio has lasted an impressively long tenure in Jacksonville, as he begins his 7th year as coach of the Jags, one of only two coaches to roam the sideline in the franchises history (Tom Coughlin -- 8 seasons). But recent inconsistencies--following up playoff years in 2005 and 2007 with non-winning seasons in 2006 and 2008--mean that Del Rio is only as safe as his next season suggests. I don't think it's playoffs or bust for Del Rio, but if he wants to match Coughlin's length of tenure, he best have his team in the hunt in December.

7. John Fox, Carolina
Fox has been around for seven seasons as well, and last year, he rebounded to lead the Panthers to 12 wins and the NFC South title. But Fox is a mainstay on these hot seat lists because of failures such as last year's NFC Divisional Round debacle against Arizona. The allure of the 2003 season is now gone. Fox could be in-line for a contract extension if his team has another 10+ win regular season, but if they drop to 3rd or 4th in the NFC South, he could get the boot.

6. Lovie Smith, Chicago
Not that it's fair to Mr. Smith, but Coach Lovie is going to get all the heat if/when the team does not win with Jay Cutler. Again, playoffs are not the dealbreaker in this situation, but when your G.M. gets a top ten NFL QB gift-wrapped in a trade to you, losses against inferiorly Quarterbacked teams in the division will likely not be tolerated. If the Bears struggle against Green Bay, Minnesota, and Detroit this year, I think Smith could take the fall. Otherwise, he should get at least one more year to try to get back to the playoffs.

5. Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati
Lewis is just going to hang out on the hot seat until the Bengals finally get rid of him, but I think the Bengals did the right thing giving him a free pass for last season. Still, you could have argued that the Bengals should have been heading in a different direction before last year's 4-11-1 mess. He's got the offensive pieces back this year, so .500 should be a realistic goal for this team.

4. Josh McDaniels, Denver
McDaniels hasn't coached a game yet, but he's put himself in a position where he has to live up to tempered expectations in order to keep his job. The Broncos aren't looking for a chance to rebuild, and McDaniels will not be graded on the quality of his defense in his first year, but 6 wins and a productive offense are a must for the young head coach. I know owner Pat Bowlen trusts McDaniels and will give him plenty of time to get the Broncos back into the playoffs, but he has to establish himself as worthy of trust, and he's only going to get one year to do that. If the players start pining for a change before the season is over, watch out.

3. Andy Reid, Philadelphia
Andy Reid is still in a great situation for a coach to be in, with a great roster full of talent, high continuity, and relatively low expectations. He's earned all of those things with hard work. However, do understand that both of the last two Eagles' playoff teams have wound up in last place the following season. That is not a pattern that will be tolerated for a third time. For Reid, it might be a playoffs or bust year. This marks his 11th season with the team, and the last time they were playing in consecutive January's: 2004. He could earn a contract extension for himself and his QB with a strong 2009 season, or he could earn his leave with more disappointment.

2. Brad Childress, Minnesota
Coach Hot Seat himself has survived his first three years with the Vikings, but remains a hot topic regarding job security every offseason. They won three of their final four games to slide into the playoffs atop the NFC North last season, but that was the bare minimum for Childress to keep his job, and he didn't accomplish much once in the playoffs. So, if the Vikings go back to the way they have played under Childress in 2006 and 2007, underachieving with a top level defense (and if Brett Favre can't stop this trend, then it's a certainty), he's out. This one is almost certainly a playoffs or bust type situation.

1. Wade Phillips, Dallas
Many local reporters feel that Phillips should have taken the fall for last year's debacle in Big D, but Jerry Jones accepted the blame himself, and bought Phillips another season. While admirable, Jones is going to expect Phillips to repay him with a deep playoff run. Otherwise, we're talking about blowing up the current Cowboys roster, and coaching staff (including Jason Garrett), and starting fresh in 2010. Jerry Jones is a good businessman, but he's not going to keep making excuses for Phillips if he can't get this roster into the playoffs and doing some damage there.

The Raiders' Draft: Making an Argument

Wed, 29 Apr 2009 16:03:43 -0800

The word of the draft for the Raiders was "Reach." Out of the team's top five picks, only one player was not projected much lower in the draft. Some could not be found on most draft boards at all. We all know what the media and most everyone else thinks of the Raiders draft. Anyone watching ESPN could simply copy and paste what those guys were spewing and have plenty to cackle about. I think the only person sitting at that desk who was defending the Raiders was former Chiefs head coach, Herm Edwards, oddly enough.

Attending the Raider Draft Party at Ricky's Sports Bar in San Leandro, it was clear that Raider fans were not at all pleased with the selections either. The excitement and anticipation leading up to the pick was palpable. Especially with several great players unexpectedly available at the #7 pick. But when the commissioner announced the Raiders' first pick, the excitement was sucked out of the room and was replaced by anger and frustration.