Denver Broncos

Broncos Should Re-Build

Thu, 18 Jun 2009 13:20:00 +0000

In just his third year in the league, Jay Cutler threw for 4,526 yards and 25 touchdowns. While he also threw for 18 interceptions, Cutler's aggressive mentality at the quarterback position is what makes him such a good player. Nearly the definition of a franchise quarterback, Cutler's gritty, competitive attitude has brought him up the the elite status as one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. So when the Denver Broncos decided to give in to Cutler's trade demand this offseason, and ship him away to the Chicago Bears for two first-round picks, a third-round pick, and Kyle Orton, it really made you wonder what they were thinking and what their new plan was for the future.

While Cutler owned a 17-20 record as a starter, you have to remember that he's only entering his fourth year in the league. Stars don't grow overnight. It takes time to develop into a great player. Cutler was on his way to following in the footsteps on John Elway in leading the Broncos back to being one of the league's elite teams. Any chance of that happening ceased to exist once he was dealt to Chicago.

Denver had all of the pieces in place to put together one of the league's best offenses. With an excellent offensive line, led by two young tackles Ryan Clady and Ryan Harris, along with one of the NFL's top young receivers in Brandon Marshall, this team was ready to be a consistent threat in the AFC for years to come.

In the past few days, word has now come out that the Marshall, an outstanding receiver who has compiled 2,590 yards and 13 touchdowns in the past two years alone, also is asking for a trade out of Denver. While his exact reasoning isn't clear, it has been made known that Denver has at least considered the option of trading him.

In next April's 2010 NFL Draft, Denver currently holds just Chicago's pick in the first round. However, in addition to adding Georgia running back Knowshon Moreno and Tennessee defensive end Robert Ayers in the 2009 first round, the Broncos opted to trade their first-round pick in 2010 in order to move up and select Wake Forest cornerback Alphonso Smith in the 2009 second round.

Now, with Chicago's first round pick next year, it would make sense to try and add to their collection of picks. By holding a "fire-sale" and choosing to turn into re-building mode, the Broncos could essentially net a first-and-third round picks in return for Marshall. The Baltimore Ravens are one team that has drawn discussion regarding a potential trade. The Ravens, who are arguably one or two pieces away from competing for a Super Bowl, could use the playmaking ability that Marshall would bring at the receiver position. Adding weapons for their franchise quarterback Joe Flacco makes a lot of sense.

Current starting quarterback Kyle Orton is not the answer. He was a situational starter in Chicago who had one decent season with the Bears. In the NFL, every team's goal is to win the Super Bowl. Does Kyle Orton strike you as a player that is going to lead your team to a Super Bowl victory? Not to me.

As a one-to-two year holdover, the Broncos could allow Orton to start, while drafting one of the two or three potential franchise quarterbacks that will be available in the 2010 Draft, one that could include Oklahoma's Sam Bradford, Mississippi's Jevan Snead, Texas' Colt McCoy, and Florida's Tim Tebow. This player could sit behind Orton and learn from him before taking over as the starter in a couple of years, similar to what the Broncos did with Jake Plummer and Jay Cutler when Cutler entered the league.

Denver's defense is not good enough to allow them to compete with the best teams in the AFC. Their team is built around the quarterback's success; but when you have a quarterback who hasn't had that great of success in the NFL, you're set up to have a losing season.

Re-building and shaping their team around the young players that they already have (Moreno, Clady, Harris, Eddie Royal) is the best way to go. Doing the right thing isn't something the Broncos are used to; trading Jay Cutler proved that.

Brandon Lloyd Signs with Denver. Brandon Marshall Demands Trade.

Wed, 17 Jun 2009 22:27:34 +0000

No, the two player moves are not related, at least I don't think they are. But it's fun putting the two headlines together.

In a move that strikes fear in no one in the AFC West, the Denver Broncos signed wide receiver Brandon Lloyd to a contract.

Lloyd still evokes memories of shame and doubt. I referred to him as a "gifted receiver" when the Redskins signed him and Adam Archuleta as the last pieces needed for that sure-fire 2006 super Bowl run.

The experience taught Washington's blogging community that healthy skepticism is a good thing. That's why we can question the logic of what we're hearing from Redskin Park without any disloyalty to the team.

Lloyd caught 43 and 48 passes the two seasons before he signed with the Redskins. The 49ers were a weak team with a question-mark at quarterback. Surely, Lloyd with blossom with Joe Gibbs' Skins who made the playoffs in 2005.

It was only after he bombed here (23 receptions, 365 yards, 0 TDs), and after reading a passing reference by Skin Patrol on Hogs Haven, that I took a deep look at Lloyd's performance.

Brandon Lloyd was not the equal of Rod Gardner, the man he was brought in to replace.

Gardner, called "fifty-fifty" by Bruce Smith because those were the odds he would catch any ball that would hit his hands, managed 46 receptions and four touchdowns as a rookie. Over the next three seasons, Gardner never caught less than 51 passes or fewer than five touchdowns in any one year.

Lloyd never caught more than 48 passes in any season in his career. He contributed 23 receptions in Washington's non-march to the Super Bowl. Pro Football Prospectus 2008 says Lloyd caught 44 percent of the passes thrown his way in 2005, his best year.

Odds are that Lloyd is merely the practice dummy for new Denver QB Kyle Orton.

As if to say "There's not enough room in Denver for two Brandon's," wide receiver Brandon Marshall is demanding a trade. Shockingly, Denver is considering it.

If Denver can set up a draft auction for QB Jay Cutler, why not do the same for Cutler's No. 1 receiver Marshall?

I don't think that's going to happen, but what do I know. I didn't think the Broncos would cut Cutler loose for any amount of draft picks.

Marshall's good-bye statement is up on his web site.

"It's hard leaving an organization ran by one of the best owners in all of sports, and someone who's been there for me through my ups and downs. The hardest thing was hearing Mr. B wish me luck in the future, but we both came to the conclusion that this is probably the best thing for me to grow on and off the field."

It's a round world. Brandon's Marshall's demands now are the same as Brandon Lloyd's in 2005-'06 before he joined the Redskins.

That scares me shirtless.

Redskins owner Daniel Snyder was willing to trade first round picks for Chad Ochocinco (nee Johnson), Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez. He will at least think about Marshall, who's at least a better receiver than Lloyd, or Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly.

It could be worse. Pat Bowlen could be the Redskins' owner. I have no idea what he's doing to the Broncos. Chances are that he doesn't, either.

NFL Crystal Ball: Denver Broncos will eventually win the Jay Cutler trade

Mon, 15 Jun 2009 07:00:00 -0500

It's not going to happen overnight, it's not going to be obvious, and it's probably never going to make up for the flack the team has caught this offseason. Nor should it. But, I feel safe in saying that the Denver Broncos are going to be better off with the plethora of picks they got from the Bears than with QB Jay Cutler.

Is there anything wrong with selling high?

The Broncos were universally criticized for getting rid of their franchise quarterback. I'm not going to argue against the point that says the Broncos traded the player who would have gone on to be the second best QB in franchise history. They did exactly that.

But certain pundits have taken that a step further to say that, "you can't replace a Jay Cutler". I'm sorry, really?

Jay Cutler has a career completion percentage of 62.5%. He throws 3 TDs for every 2 INTs. He has 7.4 Y/A for his career, which is good for 8th among active players. He's got a 17-20 career record as a starter.

Can't you replace that? Perhaps it's accurate to assert that the Broncos will not be replacing that in 2009, but you have roughly a 30-40% chance of picking a name out of a hat filled with quarterbacks who were first round picks in the last five drafts who can do that, easily.

One of the names of the active players with a greater Y/A than Cutler is Daunte Culpepper. Suppose that at the end of 2002, the Vikings were offered multiple first round picks, a mid round pick or two, and a competent NFL quarterback for Culpepper. Better or worse than turning around in three years and trading him for a second round pick?

The loot on Cutler was just preposterous. I'm sure the Bears don't particularly care about the first rounders they lost, but Bears fans now have unrealistic expectations for Jay Cutler, who is still growing into his role of an NFL quarterback. But given the fact that Cutler basically forced his way out of town, the Broncos' ability to turn the Cutler market into a sellers' market is one of the greatest business stories in the history of the NFL.

Replacing Jay Cutler

We can't make the Broncos spend their draft picks on elite players. In fact, from the Broncos perspective, all of the Jay Cutler picks have already been spent. They received LB Robert Ayers, CB Alphonzo Smith, and traded up to get TE Richard Quinn. That's it. The quality of the trade itself can't be graded by these players, only by the opportunity to draft these players. But, of course, if these players don't pan out, the Broncos don't really get anything from trading Jay Cutler.

Of course, the mere fact that the trade was made allowed the team to snag RB Knowshon Moreno with the 12th pick. Do you think the team would have gone RB if Cutler was still on the roster? I doubt it.

Moreno is only one piece of the puzzle to replace Jay Cutler in the Broncos offense. Eventually, the team will have to find another franchise type quarterback. They'll shuffle through guys like Kyle Orton, Chris Simms, and Tom Bradstater. But because they are free of the financial burden that Jay Cutler will command, trading Cutler gives them the right to go a different direction at the end of the season should none of the current guys play up to par.

That's really where the strategic value in trading Jay Cutler lies. There was speculative value for Cutler in Josh McDaniels' offense. He could have been a great quarterback there. But he also could have pulled a Rex Grossman under Ron Zook, and lost most of his value over one year. The Broncos were not taking a risk by trying to move Jay Cutler -- they were eliminating it.

From the Bears' side

Chicago jumped on the chance to land a potential franchise quarterback. Of course, the Bears, historically, had done a pretty decent job of winning with a revolving door at QB. So if the Bears were convinced that Jay Cutler is better than his early numbers suggest, you can't really knock them for paying the premium to get a great player.

But the Bears weren't buying just Cutler. They were/are buying Cutler, and the chance that Cutler's legend was a product of the prior Denver regime. They bought a lot of risk that has no resale value. Buying high is not a fundamentally sound business strategy. But it can pay off big time if you gamble and win.

Of course, the biggest knock against Bears G.M. Jerry Angelo is that he's a poor evaluator of offensive talent, and always has been. That's, of course, one of the reasons he drew rave reviews for his trade, and one of the biggest defenses for all the picks he gave away. 1) Cutler is a proven player, and 2) he would have wasted those picks on offensive busts anyway.

Point two is obviously a heavy dose of self-serving logic. Predicting that he not only wouldn't have used picks to bolster an aging defense is in itself a fallacy, but not as bad as using his inability to spot offensive talent as a defense for a move where he acquired offensive talent. That's a gap in logic. Cutler, is really, really not a proven player. He's a one time pro bowler who almost certainly beat out some more deserving players for the third spot. So he's one of the better QBs in the AFC, and when Tom Brady gets hurt, when people ignore great seasons from Phillip Rivers and Chad Pennington, and when David Garrard/Derek Anderson/Carson Palmer put in below average seasons, then he's debatably a pro-bowler. That's a proven commodity if I've ever seen it. Well, at least he was better than Brett Favre last year.

None of these points mitigate that the Bears are taking a huge risk justifiable only by the scouting instinct of those who have so often failed to identify QB talent in this league. But once you look past that, the Bears have major upside on this trade, and let's face it, opportunities like this are roughly generational.

Why the Broncos will win

In many ways, I think the Broncos have already won the deal. They were a young team who, at the expense of trading a franchise QB, managed to get even younger and loaded with high upside talent. The rest of the deal hinges on their ability to locate an above average NFL QB and get him under a long term contract within the next four years or so.

For the Bears, it's much more simple. Jay Cutler needs to make Bears fans forget about all their QB struggles over the last few years. He's got to be the best QB in their division. He has to outplay Aaron Rodgers. He has to make pro bowls consistently. And he has to spearhead a passing game that will help the Bears win ball games over the next eight years or so.

That's why I feel the Broncos have the inside track on this deal. Both teams are getting what they need as franchises. But what the Broncos are getting (younger and more talented) is closer to historically successful than what the Bears are getting (a highly touted prospect at a premium position). And that's why I think history gives an edge to the Broncos.

NFL Top 10: Best Storylines heading into 2009

Sat, 06 Jun 2009 18:55:00 -0500

I really love spending hours putting together the research for a long-winded heavy analytical post, but sometimes, a fan needs to appreciate the game from a different perspective. This isn't going to provide any insight into why teams will win and lose this year, but because it's June, and we're two months from training camp, I'll forgive myself.

Today, NFL Top 10 takes a look at the best storylines entering 2009, as well as those potential developing storylines that could shape the upcoming NFL season.

10. Ray Lewis, Rex Ryan, and defense in the AFC
If the Baltimore Ravens are going to make good on my super bowl appearance prediction, they can't allow the media to even speculate that they might be missing Rex Ryan. The effect of defensive coordinator on a team's defense has certainly been overstated throughout the years, so we'll never know if the Ravens are actually missing Rex Ryan. They need a great defensive season from start to finish to dispel the argument that they will miss him. Meanwhile, the Jets will only be relevant this year if they can rely on their running game. And they will only be able to call on their running game if their defense is top notch. I think the expectations are still higher in Baltimore than they are for the Jets. But with three wins in September, Rex Ryan can change the expectations. Be warned.

9. Will Jason Campbell prove Dan Snyder wrong?
What we know -- the Redskins had significant interest in both Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez at different points this offseason. To their credit, they never publicly acted as if they were disappointed with Jason Campbell's development, but I don't think they were convincing enough with their non-action to dispel rumors. Anyway, Jason Campbell has one thing going for him, and that's the fact that he survived a Dan Snyder shopping spree while keeping his job. There's no actual precedent for that happening, but Campbell, for now, has the full backing of the organization, and all eyes will be on him to prove management foolish for entertaining other ideas this offseason.

8. Adrian Peterson
Can this happen? Will Adrian Peterson have three consecutive 1,300 yard seasons to begin his career? But more importantly, will Peterson develop to the point at which he can offer more value to his team than the occasional explosive play and consistent 5.0 yard rushing average. Obviously, the passing woes for the Vikings are really not Peterson's fault, but he hasn't exactly helped out his team with top notch pass blocking, and he's averaging fewer than 200 yards a year in the passing game. If Peterson becomes an all purpose option this season, the Vikings should return to the playoffs. If he posts another empty 1,200 yard with a middling 8-10 TDs, well, let's hold off on the coronation.

7. After 0-16, how long will the Lions losing streak last?
The Lions have a pretty brutal pre-bye schedule, but their first two opponents: New Orleans and Minnesota should not take them lightly. The Lions are looking at a team with a struggling run defense, and another team that could be missing both of it's all pro defensive tackles. Last year, the Lions' season got off on the wrong foot when the Falcons and 49ers shredded them on the ground, and this year, the Lions will snap their losing streak when their ground game starts to chew up it's competition. If history suggests anything, it's that it won't take them very long.

6. T.O. and North America's Team
The Bills have not really had this much firepower since they had a top defense in 2004, only to watch Drew Bledsoe and the Pittsburgh Steelers' second teamers dashed their playoff hopes. But, for the first time in 5 years, the talent to compete is on the roster. Like most small market teams, they are not without holes, specifically on the offensive line, but Trent Edwards' inconsistencies should be tempered now that he's throwing to two very established receivers. The defense should be typically strong under Dick Jauron, and the Bills can pound the rock, so this season is all about the passing game and the health of a somewhat thin offense. T.O. is somewhat of a 6 million dollar side show, but the increased attention will be very welcome for the Bills.

5. Will Drew Brees solidify his place among the games' elite?
Daunte Culpepper. Donovan McNabb. Carson Palmer. Tony Romo. Since Tom Brady and Peyton Manning exploded onto the NFL scene in 2004 as the two quarterbacks that every personnel evaluator would most like to have behind center, the pundits have attempted to christen a third member to this elite class every year. It hasn't worked. None of the names listed above have consistently produced at at elite level worthy of the highest of expectations. Drew Brees is looking to change all that this season. Another 4,000 yard season in which Brees takes the Saints back to the top of the NFC would mean that Brees should be mentioned in the same breath as Brady or Manning, who are the hall of fame quarterbacks from this era. We're that close to be talking about Drew Brees as a hall of fame level quarterback. You get the feeling if he's ever going to get to that level, this is going to be the year for Brees and the Saints.

4. Whilst the Steelers repeat?
That team that won the NFL Championship last year, the Steelers, return all the crucial parts of their playoff machine from last year. So the main question here is: who, if anyone, can topple these guys? History says the Steelers will not repeat, because just because you beat all 31 other teams to the Super Bowl title one year does not guarantee you success over any one team the following year. The odds are stacked against every team at the beginning of the year, super bowl champs included. But the Patriots did win 3 Super Bowls this decade. Is it even possible that a team who won three super bowls might not be remembered as the dominant team of the decade? The Steelers have a once-in-a-lifetime shot to do just that. Is it possible? It's not like the Redskins or Giants are considered the team of the 80's, nor were the Raiders or Cowboys considered the team of the 70's. No decade has ever seen two different teams win three super bowls, and the only ten year span in which two teams won three titles each were the 49ers and Cowboys from the late to mid 90's. The Steelers look to make history with the Pats this year.

3. Jay Cutler/Josh McDaniels
Jay Cutler's wish to be cut free from the tyranny of a 33 year old head coach he had yet to meet before may have adverse effects on his career in the long run. Jay Cutler was basically guaranteed long term success with the Denver Broncos. However, with Chicago, it's going to feel a lot like his college days with Vandy. Understand, the Bears have talented players on offense with Cutler, but it's not at all like Denver, when every player the Broncos roster was capable of stepping up when called on. Cutler is going to find himself frustrated with the limitations of Devin Hester, with the never-ending search to find a go-to third down receiver, with Desmond Clark's maddening inconsistencies, with an offensive line that will blow simple protections from time to time, and with a running game that will go AWOL for month-long periods. Meanwhile, McDaniels has an incredibly promising offense, but he's basically given up on it's two most dependable players: Cutler and TE Tony Sheffler. So for McDaniels, his key will be developing a super star or two out of a bunch that includes Kyle Orton, Knowshon Moreno, and Brandon Marshall. Good luck and godspeed, coach. You've got the best chance to win this trade, but you better hope for the best...and that someone tackles on defense this year.

2. The Colts' Playoff streak in limbo
Since Tony Dungy came to Indianapolis in 2002, the Indy Colts have posted the following EA Sports-like win totals: 10, 12, 12, 14, 12, 13, 12. I mean, holy God. They've made the playoffs 7 out of 7 years, in the prime years of the greatest quarterback to ever play the game. 6 consecutive 12 wins seasons. 9 playoff appearances in the last ten years. Put it this way: The Indy Colts of the last 7 years are every bit the comparable to the Atlanta Braves, 1991-2005. But Dungy is gone, Marvin Harrison is gone, Ron Meeks is gone, and at least temporarily, Howard Mudd and Tom Moore are gone. The only QB in NFL history who compares to Manning, Dan Marino, had a prime of his career that, while not as impressively consistent as Manning, lasted though age-34 (1995) before he lost his all-worldly level of play.

That would suggest Manning has two more years at this insane level of productivity. But Peyton's hallmark has been that incredible consistency: if he plays to whatever age Brett Favre does without missing a start, he will break his consecutive starts record. But the one certainty in sports is that the last years of a super star will be played at a lower productivity level than his middle years. Even, yes, in the case of Barry Sanders. The big question here is that, if Peyton Manning plays at a 9 or 10 win level this year instead of a 12 or 13 win level, are the Colts good enough to pick him up and make the playoffs again. If not, the streak is in jeopardy, again.

1. The Patriots vs. the World
While the questions around Manning circle around how long he will be able to play at a never seen before level of play, Tom Brady has to prove he can pick up exactly where he left off. Brady's window to win championships will last about three more seasons. And he returns in 2009 with a cast of receivers that he has never lost with in regular season play. Again, Manning enters this season with a quite wonder about his remarkable abilities, but his expectation is much lower. With Brady, it's almost as if 12-4 and anything short of a championship season and 1st team all-pro status would mark a disappointment for the young QB. If Matt Cassel can go 10-5, Brady should be good for at least 13 wins. Or so the logic goes. Tom Brady will ultimately be judged by how he does in the postseason, but it looks like the only team on the Pats' schedule this year that will beat them is themselves.

John Stansberry: Nominee #2 For Biggest Douchebag In Sports History Is...

Fri, 05 Jun 2009 14:16:45 -0500

...Bill Romanowski, affectionately known to NFL fans as "Romo." Check out this gem from an interview he did with IGN's Jon Robinsion back in 2006 that pretty much sums up the Romo Experience:

"Dirtiest thing I ever did was at the bottom of a pile, I was trying to rip the ball out of the running back's hands, it was Dave Meggett, and all I could get a hold of was his finger. I just grabbed the finger, twisted it, and broke it like a chicken bone."

Romo's supporters would tell you that his pure, unbridled passion for the game of football sometimes made him a little overzealous. But I don't care how passionate you are, twisting someone's finger underneath a pile until it breaks is just plain dirty. I guess that's what 'roid rage will do to a guy who's already unbalanced to start with.

After a highly decorated career at Boston College, Romo was selected in the third round of the '88 Draft by the 49ers. From there the linebacker went on to a 16-year career that included the following highlights:

- While playing with the Philadelphia Eagles in 1995, Romo kicked Arizona fullback Larry Centers in the head. The result was an ejection and subsequent $4,500 fine.

- While playing with the Denver Broncos in 1997, Romo broke the jaw of Panther quarterback Kerry Collins in a preseason game, which resulted in a $20,000 fine. During a regular season Monday night game that same year, he spat in the face of 49er wide receiver J.J. Stokes.

- While still wrecking havoc with the Broncos in 1999, Romo incurred $42,500 worth of fines for three illegal hits.

- Finally, in 2003, Romo's 'roid rage spilled over against an Oakland Raider teammate. During a scrimmage, Romo ripped off the helmet of tight end Marcus Williams and crushed his eye socket with a punch. Williams would eventually be awarded $340,000 in a lawsuit regarding the incident.

In 2005, Romo went on 60 Minutes and admitted to the world what everyone, especially Dave Meggett and Marcus Williams, already knew...he used steroids. Apparently, Romo had used the Cream, the Clear, the Unclear, the Balm, the Lotion, the Ointment, the Salve and whatever other steroid concoctions that Victor Conte and the crew at BALCO could come up with.

In terms of d-baggedness, the dude is a Hall of Famer, but in terms of pure hilarity, Romanowski's blog (yes, the guy blogs) belongs in the Comedy Hall of Fame. If the shaky grammar doesn't start you giggling, then the content will. Check out his blog entry about meeting Elton John:

"I told him how his music had made a really big impact in my life and in my profession. I told him the relevance of his song, Tiny Dancer, in my football career and he actually reached out to shake and kiss my hand as a gesture."

Can you imagine what would have happened if Elton John had tried to shake and kiss Romo's hand back when Romo was at the height of his 'roid rage? "AIN'T NO SISSY GONNA KISS MY HAND!!! ROMO SMASH SIR ELTON!"

Raiders' Mix of Youth and Vets a Winning Formula

Thu, 28 May 2009 19:21:04 -0800

Among the qualities that the Raiders have desperately lacked in the last few years has been solid veteran leadership. Most of the players on this team are original Raiders who were drafted or acquired as undrafted free agents during these six seasons of futility. And while many of those players have grown as players, most of them have seen nothing but losing since becoming an NFL player.

It has been said ad nauseum that winning teams are built through the draft. But in the case of this Raider team, while most of them have steadily gotten better, they have lacked direction and leadership.

What to do after Patriots lose out on Taylor

Thu, 14 May 2009 10:01:02 +0000

With the way the Patriots ran their draft, most writers in the media and more then a few fans in Patriot nation (myself included) figured the Patriots had the inside track on DE/OLB jason Taylor.

After playing in Nick Saban's 3-4 defense, one could say he was Taylor made to join the Patriots and replace fan favorite Mike Vrabel who was traded to Kansas City.

After no word from Taylor or the Patriots, Miami has since announced it has signed Taylor to a one-year deal worth about $1.5 million.

Great! The Bromance between Taylor and Patriots quarterback will be seen back on the field as Taylor wrestles him the ground....

Interestingly, the Globe's Mike Reiss notes some thoughts on what the Patriots might have known:

The feeling here is that this is the result the Patriots expected. If Taylor hadn't moved closer to pursuing an opportunity with them by now, the Patriots probably figured they were facing longer odds, and realized that playing close to home was Taylor's preference.

Not everyone was in line with that thinking as only Tuesday, PFW in Progress discussed Jason Taylor joining the team.

So where does that leaves the Patriots?

The weakest position on the team is the starting position at outside linebacker and then back-ups at inside linebacker. Now that Taylor is gone, there are very few free agents on the market for the Patriots to pick up to start at OLB. The Patriots may make a trade for a player and this may jump start discussions for Julius Peppers.

I look back on last year and see injured linebackers Adalius Thomas, Gary Guyton and Eric Alexander (IR) being replaced by Junior Seau and Rosy Colvin.

2009 has not even started and it looks as if those two may be on speed dial and possible Willie McGinest could return for one last hurrah before retiring. Any one check if Roman Phifer still available?

I trust Bill and he is the expert on the talent within the Patriots roster for his system. However, I look at the linebacker position in 2009 as I do the wide receiver position in 2006 and the cornerback position in 2008. Those positions hurt the team and lead to the Patriots losing the 2006 AFC Championship (although the defense (CBs) allowed the Colts to get back into the game) and also missing the 2008 playoffs.

The Patriots then reacted in 2007 by signing Randy Moss and Wes Welker and now in 2009 signing Leigh Bodden, Shawn Springs and drafting Darius Butler and safety Patrick Chung.

If Bill believes he has the talent on the team he needs to win a Super Bowl, then so be it. But now I do expect some movement to sign one or two more veteran free agents for OTAs and training camp and maybe we see a trade before training camp ends.

IN BILL WE TRUST!!

NFL Top 10: Coaches on the Hot Seat in '09

Wed, 13 May 2009 12:41:45 -0500
You know, I think there are only a handful of topics in sports that would make for great discussion on radio shows, or on blogs, that have no practical meaning in the real world. I think back to debates about running up the score: you'll get tons of callers in on a topic like that, putting in their two cents. Is is right? Did it happen? Does it matter?

Well, to me, I see the ever-present NFL Head Coaching Hot Seat as cut from the same mold. It's a debate partially on the merits of certain coaches, partially on the trends of certain owners hiring and firing patterns, and mostly on probability. Does it really matter if Coach 'X' is on the Hot Seat? We're not even wondering if he should be fired, we're asking if he should be/is in a position where you would consider a coaching change.

I don't have the answer to that question, but it sure is a fascinating topic. Here follows MVN Outsider's largely meaningless list of coaches who may or may not be on their way out at the end of the 2009 season.

10. Mike McCarthy, Green Bay
McCarthy enters his 4th year as the head coach of the Green Bay Packers, and after falling from 13 wins to 6 wins in just one offseason, McCarthy needs to show that 1) it wasn't his fault, and 2) he can get the Packers trending back in the right direction. Truth be told, it wasn't his fault the team lost ten games last year, but if they lose ten games again, it would be hard to argue he should keep his job.

9. Jim Zorn, Washington
Jim Zorn is a second year head coach, but has been handed a ready-to-win team that figures to be much better than last year's 8-8 team. By no means is the Redskins roster without flaw, not even without major flaw, but the expectations in the beltway mean that Zorn has to oversee a team that improves over last years first promising, but ultimately disappointing effort. Owner Dan Snyder isn't married to the idea of having a big name coach, but won't have the patience to see Zorn through another streak of 6 losses in 8 tries.

8. Jack Del Rio, Jacksonville
Del Rio has lasted an impressively long tenure in Jacksonville, as he begins his 7th year as coach of the Jags, one of only two coaches to roam the sideline in the franchises history (Tom Coughlin -- 8 seasons). But recent inconsistencies--following up playoff years in 2005 and 2007 with non-winning seasons in 2006 and 2008--mean that Del Rio is only as safe as his next season suggests. I don't think it's playoffs or bust for Del Rio, but if he wants to match Coughlin's length of tenure, he best have his team in the hunt in December.

7. John Fox, Carolina
Fox has been around for seven seasons as well, and last year, he rebounded to lead the Panthers to 12 wins and the NFC South title. But Fox is a mainstay on these hot seat lists because of failures such as last year's NFC Divisional Round debacle against Arizona. The allure of the 2003 season is now gone. Fox could be in-line for a contract extension if his team has another 10+ win regular season, but if they drop to 3rd or 4th in the NFC South, he could get the boot.

6. Lovie Smith, Chicago
Not that it's fair to Mr. Smith, but Coach Lovie is going to get all the heat if/when the team does not win with Jay Cutler. Again, playoffs are not the dealbreaker in this situation, but when your G.M. gets a top ten NFL QB gift-wrapped in a trade to you, losses against inferiorly Quarterbacked teams in the division will likely not be tolerated. If the Bears struggle against Green Bay, Minnesota, and Detroit this year, I think Smith could take the fall. Otherwise, he should get at least one more year to try to get back to the playoffs.

5. Marvin Lewis, Cincinnati
Lewis is just going to hang out on the hot seat until the Bengals finally get rid of him, but I think the Bengals did the right thing giving him a free pass for last season. Still, you could have argued that the Bengals should have been heading in a different direction before last year's 4-11-1 mess. He's got the offensive pieces back this year, so .500 should be a realistic goal for this team.

4. Josh McDaniels, Denver
McDaniels hasn't coached a game yet, but he's put himself in a position where he has to live up to tempered expectations in order to keep his job. The Broncos aren't looking for a chance to rebuild, and McDaniels will not be graded on the quality of his defense in his first year, but 6 wins and a productive offense are a must for the young head coach. I know owner Pat Bowlen trusts McDaniels and will give him plenty of time to get the Broncos back into the playoffs, but he has to establish himself as worthy of trust, and he's only going to get one year to do that. If the players start pining for a change before the season is over, watch out.

3. Andy Reid, Philadelphia
Andy Reid is still in a great situation for a coach to be in, with a great roster full of talent, high continuity, and relatively low expectations. He's earned all of those things with hard work. However, do understand that both of the last two Eagles' playoff teams have wound up in last place the following season. That is not a pattern that will be tolerated for a third time. For Reid, it might be a playoffs or bust year. This marks his 11th season with the team, and the last time they were playing in consecutive January's: 2004. He could earn a contract extension for himself and his QB with a strong 2009 season, or he could earn his leave with more disappointment.

2. Brad Childress, Minnesota
Coach Hot Seat himself has survived his first three years with the Vikings, but remains a hot topic regarding job security every offseason. They won three of their final four games to slide into the playoffs atop the NFC North last season, but that was the bare minimum for Childress to keep his job, and he didn't accomplish much once in the playoffs. So, if the Vikings go back to the way they have played under Childress in 2006 and 2007, underachieving with a top level defense (and if Brett Favre can't stop this trend, then it's a certainty), he's out. This one is almost certainly a playoffs or bust type situation.

1. Wade Phillips, Dallas
Many local reporters feel that Phillips should have taken the fall for last year's debacle in Big D, but Jerry Jones accepted the blame himself, and bought Phillips another season. While admirable, Jones is going to expect Phillips to repay him with a deep playoff run. Otherwise, we're talking about blowing up the current Cowboys roster, and coaching staff (including Jason Garrett), and starting fresh in 2010. Jerry Jones is a good businessman, but he's not going to keep making excuses for Phillips if he can't get this roster into the playoffs and doing some damage there.

Raider Draft 09: All 'Eat Crow' Team.

Thu, 07 May 2009 22:48:42 -0800

About two tenths of a second after the Darrius Heyward-Bey pick by the Raiders, the negative criticism began pouring in. And oh, how they piled on. When the Raiders second round pick came in, what started out as a feeding frenzy became a massacre. But if these "experts," prognosticators, and analysts are going to pile on the Raiders for making the decisions they make, then someone (me, in this case) must take note of these criticisms, log them in, and check back with them down the road a piece to see if they are willing to be held accountable for their rants.

Quite often it is only the players themselves who will remember the barbs thrown at them by the talking heads. The players will in turn use that criticism to fuel their fire so that, when/if they prove the critics wrong, they can throw it back in their face. This kind of thing doesn't happen often enough, though.

2009 NFL Draft Recap Show - Grades of All 32 Teams

Mon, 04 May 2009 16:51:20 +0000
NFLDraft101.com's Chris Maier and Dan Wernery recap the 2009 NFL Draft in this special 2 hour NFL Draft recap edition of the Blitz.

During the show we discuss the big stories from the draft including the Mark Sanchez Trade and the ESPN and NFLN Draft coverage. We then breakdown the drafts of all 32 teams (division by division) and give our grades.

At the end we recap with our Winners and Losers.

Show Timeline:
Stories of the Draft: 0:00
AFC Draft Recap and Grades: 18:20
NFC Draft Recap and Grades: 68:35

Lastly, after four years and 150+ shows The Blitz is going to take a vacation for the summer to recharge our batteries and reformat the show. It has been great talking with our fans during the past 4 seasons and we look forward to re-launching a show in the fall.

Feel free to send any questions or comments to me at cmaier@nfldraft101.com.

New Raider LB Frantz Joseph 'A Blessing in Disguise'

Sun, 03 May 2009 21:42:26 -0800

Our own Patrick Patterson caught up with Frantz Joseph recently for an exclusive interview. The following quotes are excerpts from that interview.

The Raiders made a lot of controversial picks on draft day weekend but the best selection may have come after the draft was over. The draft wasn't more than a half hour behind us before the Raiders made a hard play for a guy who embodies the themes of this year's draft picks like few others. Those themes are character, heart, and work ethic and that player is former Florida Atlantic University linebacker Frantz Joseph.

Pre-draft rankings had Joseph projected as high as the fourth round but somehow he managed to go undrafted. The fact that Joseph had gone undrafted did not go unnoticed by the Raider coaching staff. They knew they had at least one priority phone call to make and they wasted no time in making it. "Shortly after the draft, probably about thirty, forty-five minutes after the draft, I received a phone call from the head of player-personnel. We just began speaking, and he just asked me how I would like to be a guy to come out and help them out in the running game as mike in the middle. I told them I would be delighted. From then on I just had an idea they were interested in me."