Atlanta Falcons

NFL Outsider Season Preview 2009: Atlanta Falcons

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 13:00:00 -0500

NFL Outsider is hosting a season preview of all 32 teams. The NFL regular season begins on September 10; in the meantime follow the best NFL bloggers as they analyze their teams in this 2009 season preview.

Tom Owen from The Falcoholic shares his insight on the 2009 Atlanta Falcons. Check in on other teams here.

The Atlanta Falcons entered the 2008 season with dozens of question marks surrounding their whole organization from top to bottom. What was put in place was designed to be the beginnings of a dynasty, something which has eluded them for over 40 years. Nearly the entire franchise was, at that point, untested and unproven. What was expected to take rookie General Manager Thomas Dimitroff and Head Coach Mike Smith many years, took only one offseason.

Due to the amazing turn around seen last season, going from a 4-12 record to 11-5 and a playoff berth, there are almost as many questions this time around. Will all those new faces brought in last season avoid a sophomore slump? Who was a one hit wonder? Can Ryan, Turner and the rest of the offense repeat last year's dominance? Will Dimitroff's second draft pan out as well as the first? Will the defense be able to survive the offseason reshaping?

These questions shall begin to be answered come September 13th when the Falcons open their 2009 NFL campaign at home against the Dolphins, another team that surprised many with a huge turn around from a rookie Head Coach.

Team Depth

This team's strength definitely lies in it's depth at key positions. While the Falcons offensive line has no real stars it harbors some mean, tough and nasty players. (According to Pete Prisco at CBS, Falcons RG, Harvey Dahl is the meanest player in the NFL.) This group of young men don't earn the amounts the elite blockers do, but they fight for each other and work as a team to create the holes necessary for the power running game the Falcons utilize.

Another position of depth for the Falcons is at the Running Back spot. Considering how integral the run game is to Atlanta, it is absolutely vital they have cover not only in case of injury but to share the load. We rarely see teams carrying a single main RB anymore and the Falcons are no different, in fact they have one of the most exciting pairings in the whole NFL. Michael Turner set records in his first game as a Falcon on the way to a 1,699 yard 17 touchdown season. Add to this the electrifying ability of Jerious Norwood, who is starting to gain peoples attention for his game breaking plays, and you have a high quality partnership. The cover is also there in the form of bruising runner Jason Snelling, who is a deceivingly good receiver out of the backfield and can also play FB, and Thomas Brown who adds some special team's ability and some potential that remains to be seen after spending his entire rookie season on IR.

Team Weaknesses

While the improvement of this defense has been well documented, there are many noticeable question marks over the ability of players like LB's Coy Wire and Stephen Nicholas to fill the holes of long time starters Michael Boley and Keith Brooking. During his 11 seasons in Atlanta Brooking accrued 972 tackles in 161 games. While some feel Brooking had already peaked it is very difficult to replace the leadership someone with that experience brings to the team. This highlights another team weakness when you consider the losses of S Lawyer Milloy and DT Grady Jackson. While there is plenty of youthful depth in the secondary, there is a conspicuous lack of elite talent. Erik Coleman is the oldest confirmed starter at 27 years old and new draftees and young veterans alike will be looking to him for guidance.

New Additions

The most notable addition of the offseason was the trade of next years second round draft pick to the Kansas City Chiefs for future Hall of Fame TE Tony Gonzalez. This provides Matt Ryan with yet another target over the middle as well as an above average blocker on the offensive line. The signing of LB Mike Peterson provides some defensive leadership and a proven starter for the LB core. Also, the signings of versatile C's Jeremy Newberry and Brett Romberg should not be understated as Todd McClure is coming to the end of a stellar career.

The draft provided the Falcons with a chance to focus on their defense and they seemed to go for players that could make an instant impact. First round pick Peria Jerry can come in and improve the rotational depth at DT. William Moore, picked in the second round, is seen as the most likely to come in and make a difference early as a high motor Safety and a tackling machine. The steal of the whole draft can be seen as the selection of DE Lawrence Sidbury in the fourth round as he provides some competition for Anderson at LE and is also versatile enough to be a situational pass rusher at LB.

Key Losses

The Falcons have most notably lost the intangible leadership and experience of long time veterans such as S Lawyer Milloy and DT Grady Jackson on defense. Combine this with the loss of two long serving starters LB's Keith Brooking and Michael Boley and you have a very unproven defense. While only in Atlanta for 10 starts, CB Domonique Foxworth showed enough that made him a high profile loss in the Falcons secondary.

2009 Prediction

Atlanta has a very tough schedule this season, facing arguably two of the strongest divisions in the NFL, the NFC East and AFC East. Add to this the competition of their own division and it makes a punishing campaign trail that will be hard on this youthful group. They have never had back to back winning seasons but appear to be in a great position to change this. I envisage the Falcons being very strong at home but struggling away to strong teams like Dallas, New England and the New York Giants. My prediction: 9-7 Record.

Rising Star

Look for WR Harry Douglas to shine this year. Many predict the trade for TE Tony Gonzalez will mean a reduced role for Douglas but I disagree. Sure, he won't have as many balls come his way as if Gonzalez wasn't there, but the potential for those catches he does make to be of greater distance and importance is definitely there. Look for him to create matchup problems by lining up in the slot next to Gonzalez. Not to mention the glimpses we saw of Douglas returning punts last year, this guy can make a difference to this team.

Fallen Angels

With the draftee additions of Peria Jerry and Lawrence Sidbury on the defensive line and resigning of Chauncey Davis to a more lucrative deal, look to see Jamaal Anderson to have a reduced role. He has failed to impress since being drafted 8th overall in 2007 gaining only 2 sacks in 31 games and fans and coaches are becoming more and more disillusioned with the big DE.

Hello There!

Sat, 27 Jun 2009 00:10:01 -0500

Hello and welcome fellow NFL'ers and Falcon'ers!
First post niceties are always necessary, and this is no different!

I have written a season preview for the Atlanta Falcons that should hopefully be up any day now. I trust you find it both well written and informative and i hope to continue writing on mvn.com

Colts Talk: Is Pierre Garcon The Answer for Indiana at the Slot?

Tue, 23 Jun 2009 22:41:07 +0000

After reading from a popular blog called The Colts Corner, I read an article about the Colts questions and answers. One question asked by Bryan Brackney, the owner of the site, was who will be the surprise player for Indianapolis coming into the 2009-10 season?

Well, Bryan answered that the person who will be the surprise player is in the title above: Pierre Garcon. As Bryan observed, Garcon has been doing well at training camp and the Colts look to put him at punt/kick returner as well as the slot receiver.

That brought me to something; is Pierre Garcon the answer for the Colts at the slot position? This is what the Indianapolis Colts are apparently talking about.

Well, as of right now, I received an email on June 21. And I just couldn't believe who it was: Pierre Garcon. I asked Pierre a couple of months ago if he and I can hook up for an interview as I contacted him at his website, and he said yes.

But just because I am going to interview him, that doesn't mean I want him to be the guy to take over at the slot position. Sure, many people have been arguing that Roy Hall and Austin Collie should be the guys.

Some people are even considering Taj Smith as a canidate to fill the position, but I believe he'll make the practice squad.

However, I do believe that Garcon is just the perfect choice. Colts fan have seen him play last year in the 2008-09 season and he was pretty good. He was capable of being a starting kick/punt returner but he wasn't there in all of the games.

The Colts switched most of the time.

Last year, it was a mix between many players, mostly with Najeh Davenport and Garcon himself. But Garcon isn't just the receiver for the kick/punt return, although I highly believe that Garcon will earn that spot.

So now that we know that Garcon is going to pursue the spot in the return, people are wondering if he can handle being the slot receiver. It's going to be tough for Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez taking everything, yet, the Colts also have a key player in Dallas Clark.

But by saying that, Clark can't handle it all the time as well and we have seen him in the slot position at times. But the Colts are opening up younger guys and that's why there is an opportunity in the hands of Garcon.

In Week Three of the preseason last year against the Atlanta Falcons, a highlight was shown of Jared Lorenzen lobbing a 60-yard bomb to the left of the field where Pierre Garcon was being covered by what appeared to be two or three guys.

As I witnessed this, in what I call an underrated play, Garcon leaped over all of the defenders and caught the pigskin that landed right into his hands. It was one of the most exciting plays I have seen, especially from a receiver like Garcon.

In the 2008-09 season, Garcon only caught four passes for 23 yards.

Sure, it isn't what is expected as very good, but hey, many fourth-string or lower receivers in the depth chart never really get the popular stats people think with the strong passing offense of the Colts.

I think Garcon can do something with the Colts this year. He told me he is long waiting for a touchdown and I believe if he wins this slot position this year, the fans won't be disappointed.

Not one bit.

Justin Tryon, Head-Turner?

Wed, 10 Jun 2009 23:30:00 +0000

The Redskins cornerback situation has never failed to be awfully unpredictable.

Who saw DeAngelo Hall coming here in the middle of the year? Who saw Leigh Torrence improving, seemingly out of nowhere, and then getting released in the middle of the year? Who looked at Carlos Rogers in 2006 and thought, "that guy has shutdown type skills." Alas, Carlos Rogers is a shutdown corner, Leigh Torrence is a young, quality nickelback for Gregg Williams, and DeAngelo Hall is a Redskin.

I think, in many ways, the selection of Maryland Senior CB Kevin Barnes came as a surprise to many because Fred Smoot seems to be blocking him right now, and because the team had an over-publicized need on the offensive line.

But, now, the unexpected strikes again at the position: multiple coaches and team insiders report that Justin Tryon has been stealing the show at OTA's and minicamp. Yes, that Justin Tryon. The same guy who was last seen looking lost during the preseason last year.

Once again, this affirms that nothing that you see during the preseason is relevant to anything you would want to think. But more importantly, the Redskins have gone from an incredibly thin defensive backfield on the day they cut Shawn Springs to having two players ages 23 or younger in Barnes and Tryon who the team really likes and thinks could take over at one corner or the other sometime in the future.

Carlos Rogers also appears to be taking OTA's much more seriously than he has in the past, although he was unable to run at this time last year thanks to multiple torn knee ligaments suffered in November of 2007. But that's always a good thing that the Redskins appear to still be interested in the development of Carlos Rogers. Because that's why I'm really writing this column. Carlos Rogers is a freak, a true No. 1, a shutdown corner, and everything you would ever need to know about his character was affirmed when he was out there in Week One, only 10 months after his left knee was shredded, shutting down Eli Manning, Drew Brees, and Kurt Warner. But the Redskins don't necessarily value character, at least not in the way that Joe Gibbs did. The Redskins have, in many ways, returned to expecting results. Rogers has delivered on the field, but he's also the oldest member of the Redskins' secondary (save for Smoot), and he's the one with the contract expiring the soonest (end of 2009).

So now there's a dilemma: is the unexpected development of Justin Tryon, the potential development of Kevin Barnes, or the good play of DeAngelo Hall down the stretch last year...are these things actually going to hurt the team long term?

Assumption #1: The Redskins are a better team with a healthy Carlos Rogers than they are without him. Weeks 15, 16, and 17 seem to prove this.

Assumption #2: The team is eventually going to have to make a decision on Rogers' future with the team. Rogers has every right to be asked to be paid like one of the ten best CBs in the game (he's either 5 or 6, IMO). The team always reserves the right to decide a player's price tag exceeds his future value, but then they have to find a way to replace the talent. Rogers is not going to be easy to replace.

Assumption #3: Rogers will have no regrets about heading elsewhere if the money is better. This isn't going to be another Ladell Betts situation again.

Assumption #4: DeAngelo Hall and Fred Smoot are incapable of filling a potential hole vacated by Rogers

One of the biggest problems with the ridiculous Hall contract is that the Redskins went well above market value to retain him, and find themselves in a situation where they have a dynamic No. 2 CB at No. 1 type money. They did this despite an upcoming contract situation with their number one.

The only conclusion that can be rationally drawn, is that the Redskins see a day where Carlos Rogers is not on their team. Whether that be in 2010, or 2011, or even further down the road, the team has gone well out of their way to get younger. If Carlos Rogers is indeed the present, and not the future in Washington, then maybe it's time to start looking at what the future holds.

Can Kevin Barnes be a shut down corner? He's got the skills, but he also comes with a laundry list of injuries that helped him fall to the third round of this year's NFL draft. Development tends to be difficult on an injury-prone player, more practice time in the training room means less time out on the field, means less time getting better. You can flip a coin here on whether you can expect Barnes to have enough 14-16 game seasons to truly get a fair shot at developing, and even if he does, nothing in the NFL is guarenteed except that his tools will always be there. Barnes is an excellent gamble, but still, don't ever expect anything from a gamble.

This brings us back to Tryon. Is it really all that unreasonable to expect a contribution here? If Tryon becomes a better than replacement corner in the NFL, it continues an impressive three year streak of hitting on late round and undrafted talent for Vinny Cerrato. From Monty, Golston, and Doughty in 2006, to Stephon Heyer and HB Blades in 2007, to Kareem Moore and Chris Horton in 2008 and who knows, you could one day throw Tryon or Rob Jackson in that mix. That's nine names in the last three years, and this past draft includes a pair of linebackers the team likes, as well as an undrafted Center who was highly rated. The main point is: the Redskins weren't guessing in the dark with Tryon. They weren't simply saving face when they spared him a roster spot after DHall came over.

We always considered the possibility that the team's faith in Tryon might have been faith misplaced. Well, unless a lot of people around OTA's are just blowing smoke, it might be time to consider the possibility that there might be fire here. Like Kevin Barnes, Justin Tryon has No. 1 type physical skills. Like Rogers, Tryon struggled considerably making the adjustment to the NFL game. Like DeAngelo Hall, the guy is a ball-hawk. Like Fred Smoot, his mouth speaks louder than his actions.

So in many ways, Tryon fits in well into the couch groove that is the Washington Redskins defensive backfield. This is an excellent place for him to develop naturally, at his pace, and not to be forced into the lineup because the team needs his services. In November of last year, the team decided that he had more upside than 24 year old Leigh Torrence, who they let walk. If the Redskins do see a day where Carlos Rogers is wearing a Falcon jersey, it's hard for me not to think that Justin Tryon is part of the solution.

And to think that, a half year ago, he was the metaphorical embodiment of everything that was wrong with Washington football.

Summertime Observations

Wed, 10 Jun 2009 22:57:06 +0000

First, I'd like to apologize for my absence. Over the last month-and-a-half, I've embarked on a new employment opportunity, and am in the process of re-balancing work, work, family and my Falcons blog.

But enough about me.

I wanted to share this link to an amusing article. Something about the greatness of man versus the greatness of ego.

It's June. Falcons OTAs are in full swing. The rookies are being signed and integrated in the offensive, defensive and special teams schemes. Falcons are helping charities, communities, and supporting our armed forces. Mike Vick is 600 miles away. Things are looking good. Heck...with Tony Gonzalez, Michael Turner and Roddy White, we even have three players in the Madden '10 top ten at their positions.

Still, Panthers, Saints and even Bucs fans seem to think they each have the best team in the division. Saints fans will - in the same breath, mind you - point out that the Falcons defense is unproven, so they can't beat the Saints this year, while the [ahem, unproven] new Saints defense will bolster the vicious attack by Drew Brees and company. Panthers fans tout their underachieving starting quarterback, their disgruntled DE and their one-dimensional passing game as their aces-in-the-hole in their quest to defend their division title. Buccaneers...well, they hope the Bucs can do what the Falcons did last year...

To give credit where credit is due, the Saints do still have a great passing offense, the Panthers a strong running duo, and the Bucs a better-than-average defense. But they can't all play us at once. The Falcons are attempting to build the best all-around team. The offense was already strong, and the addition of Tony Gonzalez completes their attack. The defense is young, and, I'll admit, unproven, but built around a solid core (Lofton, Abraham, Babineaux, Peterson, Coleman) and getting very deep at multiple positions. The competition for DE, DT, corner back, safety and linebacker is strong, and whomever emerges at the starting positions will have had to earn it. Mike Smith is a defensive mind, and that will only serve to make this team better. No one is resting on their laurels.

I've been reading a lot of reaction to many debates going on in the sports sites, and I'd like to address some of the misconceptions I've seen:

The Falcons have never had back-to-back winning seasons - Prior to 1998, they had never been to a Super Bowl. That didn't change the fact that they made it there. Unless you are willing to put your stock in superstitions about curses, there's no reason to believe that this kind of random statistic has any bearing about what can happen in the future.
The Falcons will have to beat the NFC East and AFC East, two of the toughest divisions in the NFL - Though I can't argue that, based on the statistics these teams have, these might be the toughest divisions in the NFL (though I'd argue the NFC South is right there with them), I would like to remind everyone that the Saints, Panthers and Bucs all have to play the same two divisions. The Saints will have to face the same pass defenses we do. The Panthers will have to try to build their running attack against the same defenses. The same potent offenses will try to beat the Bucs defenses. This division, as it usually does, will come down to how we do against each other, and I like the Falcons chances here.
Teams have plenty of tape on Matt Ryan and they will have figured him out - I'd like to point out that teams have even more tape on Peyton Manning, Tom Brady and even Drew Brees. There's not much to "figure out" about Matt Ryan - he reads defenses, checks down his receivers, and hits the open man in stride. I've seen Mike Tyson box plenty of times, that doesn't mean I can "stop him".

The best news of all of this chatter is, people wouldn't be so fixated on "proving" the Falcons can't do it, if they weren't terrified they could.

Enjoy the blog? Join the Facebook group! I'm happy to field whatever questions you may have (time allowing).

Are the St. Louis Rams the Destination for Michael Vick

Fri, 05 Jun 2009 00:28:00 +0000

I think it is.

The St. Louis Rams need a play-maker. They can't always count on Steven Jackson. And Marc Bulger can't be the guys. He has been a failure towards the team.

Yeah, he has been a starter since 2002, but guess what?

Marc Bulger has only started all 16 games in one season only once! Just one time Bulger has started all 16 games in a season. You really want that in your starter? For the past seven seasons, Bulger has been sacked well over 230 times!

Rumors were swirling around the block that the St. Louis Rams are interested in Michael Vick. See what I mean?

Michael Vick has to go to the Rams. They need a bigger play-maker, other than Steven Jackson. Jackson can not carry the load ALL THE TIME.

Torry Holt is gone. Isaac Bruce is gone. Az-Zahir Hakim is gone. Ricky Proehl is gone. Marshall Faulk is gone. Kurt Warner is gone.

The Rams aren't what they used to be.

Their team needs to re-unite like the "Greatest Show on Turf" team they were.

And that kid, Michael Vick, can do that. Sure, the Rams won't be an all-passing team because their play-makers on the receiving side aren't there.

Vick can't fall to San Francisco. Alex Smith or Shaun Hill will obviously end up there. He can't fall to the Seahawks, Matt Hasselbeck or Seneca Wallace will be the main guy there. Raiders? Maybe, but why would they when they got Jeff Garcia and JaMarcus Russell?

Vick's only choice is the St. Louis Rams. This is coming from a Colts/Rams fan (more of a Colts fan) and Vick is needed.

Michael Vick can lay off the load for Steven Jackson.

Marc Bulger won't be needed, he has had poor play lately. Bulger has had a combined total of 22 touchdowns and 28 interceptions in his last two years.

Not what anybody would expect.

He is needed with St. Louis, as I have said many times in this article. Everyone in the sports world doubts his possibilities with any team. Are you kidding me? He has the best potential with a team in need of a QB.

You can say anything you want about Vick, but he deserves a shot with a team. Have you seen his abilities? Let's take a look:

An arm nobody can deny
The speed no one can be able to stop

Michael Vick was also the first quarterback ever to have more than 2,000 passing yards and 1,000 rushing yards. This is what you call, my friends, talent.

Talent.

Nobody had the talent Vick had. He has had four seasons in which he ran for more than 500 rushing yards. He also had one of the longest QB runs in the NFL history, especially the memorable one against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Now you can yap all you want about what he did with dog-fighting, but hey, everyone has done mistakes. People have done much much worse than what Vick did, and nothing happened to them.

Donte Stallworth killed a man. Leonard Little having a blood alcohol level, twice the limit and was driving 78 miles per hour in a 55 mile per hour speed limit. Jared Allen was arrested three times for DUI. Jeramy Stevens was arrested for rape. And Chris Henry has been arrested FIVE TIMES!

You think Vick's was worse?

I don't think so.

Please give Vick a chance. How did Vick NOT learn his lesson? He has been in jail for more than 20 months for crying out loud!

Vick may not be a team player, but he can be a play-maker.

And that is all what the Rams need. For the team to go back towards their winning ways, Michael Vick is the answer. He can be the future.

People say he can't perform well because he hasn't played for two years. Well he has been playing football in jail and heck, he is only 28 years old! A lot left in the tank, could play for ten or eleven more years!

Then you say he isn't good in passing. Well sure, he does a 75.7 rating, but he can WIN GAMES FOR YOU! Look at Peyton Manning or Dan Marino, they had all the stats but aren't the type of playoff-type guys that can win games for you.

Vick can destroy on pass and running, don't get me wrong. You have to believe that. And with Vick scrambling and passing around, that could leave some room for Steven Jackson to run over defenses when the defense is already tired with chasing after Mike Vick.

And at least he isn't one of those quarterbacks who have more interceptions than touchdowns in their career. How can you say Vick is a bad quarterback?

Take a look at this: Compare Vick towards Vince Young. Let's take a look at the touchdowns, interceptions, and passer rating:

Michael Vick: 71 touchdowns and 52 interceptions, 75.7 rating

Vince Young: 22 touchdowns and 32 interceptions, 68.8 rating

So many of you say that Young is a GOOD quarterback and say Vick is bad. Explain to me why? That's just unacceptable there. Nobody talks about Young being a bad quarterback. It's just stupid. Just plain stupid.

Vick can turn around this Rams team, and he will. He will. Believe me. Once Roger Goodell reinstates Vick, there will be a team looking for Vick. It may not be the Rams, which looks like the best destination, but there will be a team looking for Vick.

It won't matter what team he'll be playing on or what league he'll be playing in. He will make a difference towards the squad.

And like Barack Obama, there will be change.

Enough is Enough with Michael Vick Critics

Fri, 22 May 2009 14:18:32 -0800

No, this is not another nagging article attempting to persuade an audience of Michael Vick's bad sportsmanship or to prevent him from re-entering the NFL. And no, I'm not an associate of PETA.

I'm just a sports fan. Who likes his sports. And his games. And his players.

And I am over the constant pestering over Michael Vick as he is released from prison and returns back to his Virginia home.

I also believe his 23 month sentence was sufficient for his previous actions. The dog fighting he participated in was both illegal and immoral. And I don't condone it whatsoever.

But he has served his time.

Now that he is on the home stretch of his sentence - and now in home confinement - serious thoughts about playing football are coming afloat - by both us fans and Vick, himself. And paralleled with that is NFL Commissioner Roger Goddell's decision on reinstating Vick.

Which ultimately becomes the biggest and most important decision in this whole Vick case.

Many people are arguing he shouldn't be reinstated because of his crude acts committed years ago.

That's ridiculous.

If my memory serves me correctly, didn't Adam "Pac-Man" Jones get reinstated this past offseason? Yes. After repeated instances of weaponry and strip club antics? Yes.

Michael Vick (Source: Flickr)

I am a strong believer in second chances. But "second" chances are over after a few. Adam Jones abused that privilege of 'second chances' about twelve times. Vick has yet to do that.

He deserves another shot in the League. I believe that he remorsed often in prison and changed his life around, learning what is right and what is wrong.

Sometimes it's even more meaningful to go through something like a two-year hiatus, learn from mistakes, and grow emotionally.

Even though I have never met Mike Vick, I can guarantee he went through some kind of emotional and remorseful mediation process to get his head in the right place.

But I will need to see Vick come out publicly. He needs to apologize for his heinous acts once more. And truly and genuinely convey his sorrow and apologetic personality. Maybe even work in the public eye to work against dog fighting in the future.

Back to the playing field, Mike Vick is an athlete with skills that most of us probably have forgotten to a degree. Do you remember, in 2006, Vick was the first QB to rush for over 1,000 yards? Yea, pretty unreal.

And it is with my whole heart that I hope Vick will get a chance to play for a club this season in the NFL. Whether it be starting in September or sitting back for a year or two to learn the offense again, he deserves a shot to show of his uniquely rare skill set.

Yes, he had a big bump a few years ago. And yes, it was a major speed bump. But now he has spent the time of punishment and has equally paid for what he did.

If the world is right, it should be a clean slate for Vick; and a whole new venture in the NFL.

As a sports fan, I cannot wait.

NFL Top 10: Most Valuable Atlanta Falcons

Mon, 18 May 2009 13:35:00 -0500

Value is a concept that really matters to teams in those end of the season front office meetings. The goal is to separate the contributors from the non-contributors. Teams need to know how to prepare should they lose a player unexpectedly in the off-season. If he was a very critical part of the teams success, there's a reduced chance he can be replaced internally, and it's more likely the team has to go outside to look for a replacement. If the performers' value is deemed to be marginal, maybe there is an in-house solution who can get the job done.

The Falcons lost a very valuable player in CB Dominique Foxworth, who left for Baltimore in free agency. Given the propensity of free agency and the draft--not to mention father time--to shake these things up, we'll look forward in our evaluation, and not back.

10. WR Michael Jenkins
Jenkins enjoyed something of a breakout season in 2008, landing himself a contract extension to stay with the Falcons. Jenkins is nothing more than a complementary target, but perhaps the premier complimentary target in the NFL today. He's tall, but more importantly, he's sharp in and out of his cuts.

9. DT Peria Jerry
Jerry is an older prospect, so he makes this list because the Falcons will expect an immediate contribution from him. Despite a non-serious knee injury in mini-camp, I'm confident that Jerry will provide the Falcons some interior pass rush. After watching Foxworth leave, the team is going to rely on it's defensive line to make the improvements on defense. Jerry's presence will not only make offenses rethink their protection schemes, but will extend the career of DE John Abraham.

8. OT Tyson Clabo
Clabo was the most consistent offensive lineman for the Falcons last year, and beats all of the other lineman to this list. If the Falcons run into an issue this year, it might come in with the interior OL, because Clabo was a stalwart last year and the team gets last years first round pick, Sam Baker, back from injury on the other side. Baker is still unproven, but Clabo, I thought he was jobbed from the pro bowl in 2008, and may make his first trip in 2009.

7. DE John Abraham
Abraham has been a consistent performer on the Falcons defensive line since his arrival four years ago, but last year, his production garnered a lot of publicity for the first time since 2006. His sack totals were up, and of course, the Falcons were good again. But the addition of Peria Jerry and to some degree, the subtraction of DT Grady Jackson represents a philosophy shift that will emphasize Abraham's contributions, not marginalize them.

6. TE Tony Gonzalez
The key with the trade that brought Tony Gonzalez to Atlanta is in the price is a 2010 second round draft pick. Basically, Gonzalez will be under a lot of pressure to produce for the Falcons, since ten months from now, G.M. Thomas Dimitroff will be under plenty of scrutiny for this deal if Gonzalez declines in his offense. Gonzo is the greatest TE to ever play and he's only 33, despite now entering his 13th NFL season. If the Falcons get two classic Tony Gonzalez seasons from him, then the second round pick is a small price to pay. If he goes into decline now, it could hurt the team.

5. RB Michael Turner
Michael Turner was a revelation as the ground leader for the fierce Falcons attack, carrying 375 times for 1,699 yards and 17(!) TDs. Another season like that is a pipe dream for Falcons fans, mostly because his carries will decline as 1) Jerious Norwood does more in the offense, and 2) Matt Ryan does more in the offense. The Falcons brass is looking for an 1,100-1,200 encore from Turner on something like 260 carries. But look for some of the edge plays and third down plays to be outsourced to Norwood. Turner should still be the TD guy in Atlanta.

4. RB Jerious Norwood
To paraphrase Merril Hoge just this once, Norwood will be the factor back in the Falcons offense this year. It's his running plays, not Turners, that will come in those high leverage, game breaking situations. The diminutive back has averaged 99 carries per season, and will likely see between 170-180 in his fourth season as he enters the prime of his career.

3. LB Curtis Lofton
As a rookie last year, Lofton first forced LB Keith Brooking out of the middle, and later, forced him off the team. Brooking had been a main stay in the Falcons defense, and now takes his act to the Cowboys. Meanwhile, Lofton is the new sheriff in town for the Falcons defense. The team expects him to man the middle for the next 10 seasons, and oversee the progression of the defense from afterthought to top unit.

2. WR Roddy White
When people talk about the success that Matt Ryan had last year, not to mention the relative success enjoyed by Joey Harrington/Chris Redman in 2007, Roddy White simply doesn't get enough credit. This guy is a top level wideout. The very best his position has to offer in the NFC. He should be mentioned in the same breath with Steve Smith and Larry Fitzgerald. And no matter how the Falcons fare over the next three years, Ryan to White is going to be the NFL's next Manning to Harrison. Rookie Matt Ryan leaned so heavily on White, who always seemed to come through for his quarterback.

1. QB Matt Ryan
Though it needs to be said that Matt Ryan got a ton of help in the resurgence of the Falcons, no one player was more responsible for the 11 win season than was Matt Ryan. At at the heart of the concept, is that not the goal of determining value? Ryan never allowed his team to be out of the game. When you talk about QBs who burst on to the scene in their first oppertunity and accomplished great things, Tom Brady comes to mind. Except that it took Brady 4 seasons to get, statistically, to the levels that Matt Ryan reached as a greenback rookie. The only question left for Ryan: can he keep it going into 2009?

NFL Top 10: Breakout Candidates in 2009

Mon, 04 May 2009 21:05:11 -0500

If you are an avid fantasy football player who plays in competitive leagues, you know there are only three ways to gain a competitive edge over your opponents. You can:

1) Have access to inside information that the rest of your league does not have,

2) Search to acquire players that are undervalued by the rest of the league, or

3) Draft players with high upside who are likely to "break out" during the next season.

The final strategy would be considered the most dangerous. Our MVN Outsider fantasy experts will vouch for this: if you load up your roster with high-upside unproven talent, you risk having a bottom of the barrel fantasy team if your players underachieve your expectations for them.

NFL Owners and General Managers have similar interests in identifying breakout candidates. Obviously, trading is not as prevalent in the NFL as it is in, say, Major League Baseball, but the NFL is a league predicated on having talent. Where is the talent going to come from? Is it in house, or does it need to be brought into the franchise from the outside? It's always expensive to try to acquire talent, but a breakout candidate can make a team a serious contender with simple coaching and proper handling of the talent. Mishandling can stunt the development of young players, and set a team back.

I'm going to omit offensive lineman from this list because of the inherent difficulty that comes with measuring a breakout absent statistics. I will also not put any rookies on this list, for obvious reasons.

So with that disclaimer out there, NFL Outsider takes this look at the NFL's top breakout candidates in 2009.

10. Matt Leinart, QB, Cardinals
Leinart is an interesting selection to breakout because he's not even expected to start at Quarterback for the Cardinals in 2009. But one glance at Kurt Warner's birthdate shows that it's very likely that Matt Leinart will find himself behind Center for the Cardinals at some point next season. Looking at the offense around him, I have a hard time seeing him ever reliquishing the position. So whether he earns the job by outplaying Warner in a platoon that Ken Whisenhunt might use, or by injury, I think Leinart's outstanding work as Arizona's starting QB begins when he first hits the field this year.

9. Keith Rivers, LB, Bengals
Rivers fractured his pelvis in October after he was blindsided by Steelers WR Hines Ward on a devistating block, but he had been so good in only a handful of games that he finished second in the defensive rookie of the year voting. Under defensive coordinator Don Zimmer, the Bengals made their first real jump forward defensively in the Marvin Lewis era, and Rivers will be the key piece for further development of the unit.

8. Leodis McKelvin, CB, Bills
McKelvin has already proven himself to be quite an athlete for the Bills, but if you are looking at a player who might all of a sudden be at the top of the league in interceptions, it's McKelvin who will have the right blend of oppertunity and skills to record 6 or 7 picks this year. It doesn't hurt that he's a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the football.

7. DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles
DeSean Jackson garnered plenty of media coverage last season for a rookie second round draft pick, and not always for the best reasons. One of the reasons I feel that Jeremy Maclin doesn't have a clear path to the starting lineup is his skill set is very similar to that of Jackson, and I think Jackson is on the verge of being a number one receiver in the NFL. I think the biggest difference between Maclin and Jackson is that Jackson can run every route an NFL receiver needs to run, and that's also why I believe he'll arrive sooner rather than later.

6. Matt Schaub, QB, Texans
Schaub's breakout isn't as contingent on him improving as a quarterback as much as it is about staying on the field and leading the Texans to the playoffs. Schaub has the pieces in place, and he clearly has the game, and 2009 will be the year that it all comes together for him.

5. Miles Austin, WR, Cowboys
I think it's safe to say that Terrell Owens wasn't released so that Patrick Crayton could get more reps. The trade for Roy Williams isn't going to net a number one receiver, but the release of Owens just might. That's because while Williams is a known quantity in the NFL, it's Austin who rocks all the potential to improve the Dallas passing offense this year. He's got the skill set of a number one receiver, a mix between Greg Jennings and Lavarneus Coles.

4. Jerious Norwood, RB, Falcons
Norwood is a yard per carry beast, but his carries in three years in the league have been limited, first by Warrick Dunn, and now by Michael Turner. But Turner led the NFL in carries last year, and probably can't be used again in the same manner. What that means is that Norwood will be a more integral part of Matt Ryan's offensive unit, and possibly could supplant Michael Turner as the starter. Scouts have expressed concerns about his ability to handle a full time workload, which is fine since Turner is there, but the Falcons need to use Norwood less in kick returns and more as a featured back this year.

3. Lawrence Timmons, LB, Steelers
The Steelers released veteran LB Larry Foote because they just couldn't justify stashing Timmons away on the bench for a third season. The Steelers think that he can be better than James Harrison. Harrison may end up being a one year wonder, relatively speaking, but Timmons was a first round draft pick who hasn't disappointed in practice. He was reportedly a bit slow to pick up the complicated defense, but he's every bit as skilled as he was on draft day, and takes his act to the field this season.

2. Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints
No one player in the NFL benefitted more from the NFL draft than the formerly undrafted Pierre Thomas, when his team the Saints did not draft a running back. He's earned it though. Thomas is now for all intents and purposes a starting running back in the NFL because the Saints love him. He figures to get more carries than fourth year back Reggie Bush, who has been best used as a receiver anyway. Thomas can go between the tackles, around the ends, and next year, don't be surprised if he heads to the end zone 8+ times in 2009.

1. Jason Campbell, QB, Redskins
Some have questioned the effectiveness of Campbell's delivery in terms of being able to adjust to the west coast offense, but no one can question his mental makeup and character. The Redskins attempted to directly replace him with Jay Cutler once, and then draft his successor in Mark Sanchez. Well, now that Campbell can go to sleep at night knowing that his successor isn't on the roster, look for his gradually increasing statistics to turn into a great leap into the top ten QBs this year. Campbell has only improved his fundamentals since coming into the league, and as they say, hard work pays off in the end. Campbell's hard work and dedication to his team could result in a monster statistical season, and a playoff birth. Then he can stay or leave on his own terms.

Five Questions: Talking Draft Winners, Heyward-Bey, Stafford and More

Wed, 29 Apr 2009 20:51:29 -0500

Who emerged from last weekend as a "winner" of the NFL Draft? Which first round quarterback (Stafford, Sanchez, Freeman) will have the best career in the NFL? And what on earth were the Oakland Raiders thinking? The NFL Draft left behind a plethora of unanswered questions, so to talk more about the weekend in football, we sat down with NFL blogger Reid Kerr of NFL Examiner, who was tracking the draft every step of the way with his Official Unofficial 2009 NFL Draft Timeline. Here's what Reid had to say about the draft in the latest installment of NFL Outsider's "Five Questions" series:

1. Give us a team and a player that you think have emerged from the weekend as "draft winners."

Both of my main winners came through predraft trades. I think the Falcons adding Tony Gonzalez for a second round pick was a great move. The Eagles had a nice combo of adding Jason Peters, then getting some excitement from some skill position guys with Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy. As far as their picks, the Texans had a good solid draft, if unspectacular.

2. Do you see any conceivable explanation for why the Raiders opted for Heyward-Bey over Crabtree, or was that simply one of those befuddling Al Davis moments not worth trying to rationalize?

Al Davis is absolutely enamored with speed. He doesn't seem to factor in anything else, such as stats, colleges, or positions. If there's a punter in next year's draft who runs a 4.2, Davis would draft him in the first round. And judging from the way his drafts go, Davis would probably be picking him first overall.

3. Aside from the selection of Heyward-Bey, give us another decision in the first round that you view as questionable.

It's pretty funny that you put it in a way that just casually acknowledges that everyone thinks Al Davis's draft was insane. Barring the Cowboys not having a first-round pick in the Roy Williams trade, the big first-round disappointment for me was seeing Denver pick Knowshon Moreno after signing three running backs in the offseason. They had big defensive needs and didn't manage their early picks well. Trading Jay Cutler will hang over this team all season until either the draft picks turn out, or there's another management change.

4. Did the Lions make the right call by selecting Stafford with the first overall pick?

No. I'd go so far as to say that the Lions didn't help themselves in 2009 at all on the first day. Long term, maybe, although I still don't see Stafford as the miracle second coming of Bobby Layne. Detroit had a lot of needs, and I just don't see their three Saturday picks as having too much effect on getting them back from 0-16. When you're that bad, you need tentpole guys, and they just didn't get them.

5. And on that note, which first-round quarterback do you think will have the most success among Stafford, Freeman and Sanchez?

Sanchez, definitely. The Jets have quality players who can protect him while he's learning. He hasn't had a ton of starts, but he's played in LA. He's mature enough to handle the media and pressure, and he'll be in the right situation.

Thanks to Reid of NFL Examiner for taking part in NFL Outsider's "Five Questions" series!

The Anatomy of a 1st Round Contract: How One Gets $34 Million Guaranteed without a Signing Bonus

Tue, 28 Apr 2009 00:31:18 -0500

Before we get into a breakdown of 2009 #1 overall pick Matthew Stafford's contract, it's only fitting that we analyze the contract of 2008 NFL rookie sensation Matt Ryan. Below is my analysis as originally posted on InsideTheCap.blogspot.com on 4.20.09. Enjoy!

As we all know, the 2009 NFL Draft is this weekend, so fittingly, I figured I'd expose the reader to the anatomy of a 1st Round Contract. That said, we all know that Atlanta QB Matt Ryan seemed to prove that he was worthy last season of the $34.75M guarantee that he received as the #3 overall pick in 2008, but how exactly is that amount structured in his contract? You'd be surprised to find out that NONE of it is via Signing Bonus.

Ryan's 6 year contract breaks down as follows:

GUARANTEE ON IT'S FACE (meaning money guaranteed the day he signs the contract; prior to earning any incentive):

- 2008 Roster Bonus (typically earned shortly after contract executed): $2.505M
- 2008 P5 (salary) guarantee: $295,000
- 2009 P5 guarantee: $3.5M
- 2010 P5 guarantee: $4.2M
- 2011 P5 guarantee: $4.9M
- 2012 P5 guarantee: $5.6M
- 2013 P5 guarantee: $6.3M

TOTAL GUARANTEED ON FACE: $27.3M (meaning if, for example, Ryan suffered a catastrophic career ending injury in, say, Training Camp of 2008, then he'd still get $27.3M)

GUARANTEE AFTER THE EARNING OF 1-TIME NOT-LIKELY-TO-BE-EARNED INCENTIVE:

In 1st & 2nd round draft pick contracts, there is almost always money tied to NLTBE (Not-Like-To-Be-Earned) Incentives. These incentives are "backed up" or guaranteed by P5 guarantees. These P5 guarantees typically void upon the earning of the NLTBE incentive (ie, a total of $1M in P5 guarantees voiding when a $1M NLTBE incentive is earned). Unlike Signing Bonus, these NLTBE bonuses don't hit a team's cap until they're earned.

- 1-time NLTBE Incentive (is deemed NLTBE because Ryan had to play 35% of the offensive snaps + the team had improve in 1 of 3 team categories, ie, Total Offense, etc.): $3.8M

- 1-time NLTBE Roster Bonus (Ryan must meet 35% playtime requirement + club improve in team category + player must be on the roster as of, for example, 1st day of the league year after the season he earned the bonus): $2.9M

- 2009 P5 guarantee: $7.5M
- 2010 P5 guarantee: $12.75M
- 2011 P5 guarantee: $2.5M of $12.75M salary
- 2012 P5 guarantee: $2.5M of 13.5M salary

GUARANTEED AFTER 1-TIME:
- 2008 Roster Bonus: $2.505M
- 2008 P5: $295,000
- 2009-2012 P5 guarantees totaling: $25.25M
- 1-Time NLTBE Incentive: $3.8M
- 1-Time NLTBE Roster Bonus: $2.9M
TOTALING: $34.75M Guaranteed

NON-GUARANTEED MONEY AFTER 1-TIME:

- 2011 P5: $10.25M of $12.75M in salary (salary escalates to $12.75M instead of $4.9M because of earning of 1-time NLTBE incentive)

- 2012 P5: $11M of $13.5M in salary (salary escalates to $13.5M instead of $5.6M because of 1-time)

- 2013 P5: $10M (salary escalates to $10M instead of $6.3M because of 1-time)

TOTALING: $31.25M of Non-Guaranteed Money

THEREFORE, the value of Ryan's Contract is:
- Total Guaranteed Money: $34.75M
- Total Non-Guaranteed Money: $31.25M
TOTALING: $66M over 6 years ($11M per year)

The contract also allows for Ryan to earn more money in addition to the $66M via "high-end" or "fluff" incentives. Those incentives breakdown as follows:

- 50% playtime + playoff win(s) (depending upon how far the team advances in the playoffs): up to $500K/year; maximum of $2M over the course of the contract

- Minimum 35% playtime in 2008 or 45% playtime in any year thereafter + club improvement + Top 5 QB Ranking or Pro Bowl selection: max $1M per year; max $4M over course of contract

TOTAL HIGH-END INCENTIVES: max $6M

THEREFORE, the maximum value of Ryan's contract is $72M over 6 years ($12M per year)

Matt Ryan is off to a great start to his career (but so was Vince Young) and to this point, Ryan looks like the real deal, but even before the Axe Hair Products endorsement deal, Ryan's bank account got off to a great start in it's own right the minute he signed this contract. Matthew Stafford and/or Mark Sanchez are potentially going to be similarly compensated to Ryan; hope they live up to the financial expectations.....