Detroit Lions

TWFE sends condolences to the Detroit Lions family over the loss of Ricky Sandoval

Thu, 02 Jul 2009 17:47:03 -0500

Sad news from the Lions today, though not totally unexpected.

The Lions announced their long-time director of security, 49 year old Ricky Sandoval, has passed away after a 3 year long fight with pancreatic cancer. Sandoval lived more than 2 1/2 years longer than his original prognosis, absolutely amazing if you know how devastating a disease cancer, especially pancreatic cancer, can be.

From the Lions press release:

LIONS DIRECTOR OF SECURITY RICKY SANDOVAL DIES AT AGE 49

Team's indoor practice field named "Sandoval Field" earlier this week

Allen Park, Mich -- Ricky Sandoval, the team's beloved director of security, died Thursday morning at Harper University Hospital in Detroit after a courageous and extended battle with pancreatic cancer that lasted more than three years. He turned 49 on June 30 and is survived by his loving wife, Gael.

As someone who considers himself quite lucky to have a mother who bravely fought, and survived, her 2 separate battles with cancer (breast and rectal), this news strikes too close to home.

So no snark or wisecracks today, just my condolences to the Sandoval family and the Detroit Lions franchise. Ricky Sandoval will be missed.

For a more in depth piece, I suggest checking out Mike O'Hara's excellent blog post about his dealings with Ricky Sandoval, describing how he was liked by all, even the media.

Sandoval's death, combined with DT Corey Smith drowning in a boating accident earlier this year, has made for a very difficult off season for the Detroit Lions.

The new season cannot start soon enough...

Remember when it was almost impossible to buy Detroit Lions season tickets for Ford Field?

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 17:21:16 -0500

Boy howdy, have things changed in 9 years...

I had the following press release arrive in my email inbox today:

LIONS OFFERING NEW FLEXIBLE SEASON TICKET PACKAGES

Multiple options create greater value for Lions fans

Allen Park, Mich.-- The Detroit Lions are offering several, flexible season ticket packages for the 2009 season. Along with the Full Season Plan that includes all 10 Lions home games, fans can now purchase Half-Season Plans, "The Roar Zone" Plan, and the "Pick Your Games" Plan.

Along with the new flexible, season ticket packages, the Lions are offering the "All You Can Eat" Seat. This option is being made available to Detroit sports fans for the first time in this market in regular stadium seating areas.

"One of our most important business objectives is to present our fans with several options to attend Lions games at Ford Field that provide great value," said Lions President Tom Lewand. "We recognize that this is a tough economic environment for all fans, and increased flexibility is necessary to respond to that environment."

But there's more than just half season (Which does include one ~~preseason~~ exhibition game, making it a 5 game package, and less of a true deal), pick your game, and for the uber-cheap asses, the $30 "Roar Zone", ticket packages available. This is the ticketing option I find most fascinating...and scary:

The All You Can Eat Seat!

5,500 available seats in special "All You Can Eat" sections that will be offered with season tickets, group tickets and individual game tickets.
Includes for one price: game ticket and unlimited hot dogs, bratwurst, chips, popcorn, nachos & cheese and soft drinks.
Access to special redemption centers at east and west end of Ford Field (nearby "All You Can Eat" sections) for "All You Can Eat" customers only.
Season tickets start as low at $73 for "All You Can Eat" tickets.
Tickets for individual games (available at a later date) for "All You Can Eat" tickets start as low at $85.

Anyone else think it could get real ugly sitting in a section where your typical drunk, out of control, highly emotional Lions fan can break out their inner Joey Chestnut? Thank GOD beer isn't on the unlimited list..,

It's nice to know the Lions //sarcasm on// care so damn much about the economic hardships many of us are dealing with in SE MI //sarcasm off// they are allowing fans to buy partial season ticket packages...something the Tigers and Pistons have been doing for quite some time.

To be frank, the Lions wouldn't have ticket selling issues if they had played anything even closely resembling NFL football since moving to Ford Field. Play good football, and the fans will come...prices be damned. (Well, most of the time. Just ask the Red Wings)

What will be interesting to watch is how the Lions handle season ticket sales once they become a decent NFL team again. (Hey, it could happen!)

Once you give fans the option to buy mini-season ticket packages,instead of forcing overpriced full season packages down their throats, will they be able to close that mini-package door without a fan revolt in the future?

Still, I have to say this is a positive step for the Lions in repairing fan relations, as we're all cheap SOB's at heart, right?

The Knee Jerks are back!

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 16:13:54 -0500

After a 5 week hiatus, The Knee Jerks made a somewhat triumphant return to Blog Talk radio Monday night.

I'll let Eno give you the lowdown as to what we covered...

"The Knee Jerks", my weekly Blog Talk Radio gabfest with Big Al from The Wayne Fontes Experience, made its return last night after a five-week hiatus due to Al recovering from major (and more painful that he thought) back surgery.
Al's stamina was impressive. After initially indicating that he wanted to do a 35-40 minute show, he stayed with me until 12:15 -- a full 75 minutes after we started.
You can hear us rehash the Red Wings' Stanley Cup run (including my experiences being at the Finals as a member of the media); listen to us talk about the team's future -- both on the ice and in terms of which building they'll play in; wring our hands over Magglio Ordonez; and talk glowingly about the Lions' new regime (no, it's not Kool-Aid sipping, promise!) if you click below.
We are now back on schedule -- every Monday night live at 11 PM ET. Click here for more details about upcoming episodes, including our special guest -- former Detroit broadcaster Bob Page -- on July 13.

You can go here for a direct MP3 download, or to our show page to listen to a streaming version.

NFL Top 10: The Best Offseason Moves Not Made

Tue, 30 Jun 2009 09:00:00 -0500

We tend to judge coaches by how their actions effect games. We tend to judge front office types by their acquisitions. These are fair game of course, but the best offseason moves are often the ones that weren't made.

In today's NFL Top 10 column, we'll take a look back at all aspects of the offseason, and narrow down just ten player personnel moves that were not made, and how the discussed party is much better off.

10. The Detroit Lions pass on an offensive lineman in the first round of the NFL Draft
This is coming from a man who thinks that Jason Smith should have been the pick at No. 1, the prior Lions regime might have decided that after taking Matthew Stafford at No. 1, the No. 20 pick should have been the best lineman available. And even with OT Michael Oher available, the Lions decided that TE Brandon Pettigrew was a more irreplaceable player, and snagged him. In the running game, he's basically another offensive tackle. The Lions decided that even if their pass blocking struggles again this year, they still have plenty of options going forward to address it. The team has extended the contracts of two interior lineman this year, so once you pass on that franchise LT, they were better off going the developmental prospect route, which they did.

9. The 49ers do not go out and sign/draft a quarterback
This would have been a very defensible move if it happened, but they aren't a) one QB away from contending, or b) in a position where they can cast off any of the current crew without risking losing your potential franchise QB. The shine is off of Alex Smith, but we're still not real sure what, if anything, he is. The thing about Shaun Hill is that you can put the ball in his hands for the time being if no one else steps up, and he won't embarrass himself. And the 49ers were one of the few teams who took advantage of a QB class that was far deeper than it was strong, landing Nate Davis in the 5th round. Davis could be a potential franchise player if he can overcome a learning disability that scared away most NFL teams. It makes sense to give Singletary a season to see if he can get his team to the doorstep of the playoffs before you worry about the next QB of the 49ers.

8. Marc Tauscher was not signed in the free agency rush
Tauscher, a right tackle who was coming off his worst season, not to mention a mid year-ending knee injury, was supposed to be one of the first OTs off the market in March this year. Given his health and declining play, a multi year contract would have been disastrous for the team that took the risk. Tauscher is much better served as a player on a one year deal this year. He remains unsigned, so he'll be allowed to rehab at his own pace, maybe even sit out the 2009 season, and get back on the field next year or in the middle of the season and he can hopefully contribute to someone's playoff push.

7. The Philadelphia Eagles do not match Denver's offer to Brian Dawkins
Denver just gave Brian Dawkins a lot of money for his age 36, 37, and 38 seasons. We all know how big a part of the Eagles defensive units he has been, but we also know how quickly these older players can become a weak link on their own units. The aspirations are too high for the Eagles this year to offer Dawkins more than they believe he is worth to them, and then to put his satisfaction before the team. I'm not at all suggesting Dawkins is a selfish player, just that he's human, and he's worth more to Denver right now than he is to the Eagles.

6. Nnamdi Asomugha does not bolt a bad situation in Oakland
The Raiders may be a total laughingstock, but they could have easily let a mismanaged situation turn into the loss of their best player, CB Nnamdi Asomugha. But the Raiders did the right thing, they stuck to their guns, didn't extend their top player for longer than they were comfortable (the deal is three years) and compensated him like the best defensive player in football, which he just might be. These trade offs have bitten the Raiders in the past, but they avoided a Doomsday scenario with some shrewd negotiations.

5. Ray Lewis stays with the Ravens
The Ravens would have been okay letting their leader walk, but considering that they were willing to offer 8 million dollars per year to the pro bowl linebacker, it would have been unfathomable if Ray had spurned them and gone elsewhere. Because of the legend that Lewis roles with, and the fact that the Ravens are on the verge of something special, it would have been just weird had the team played deep into the playoffs to have Ray sitting and watching from his couch.

4. The Ravens don't overpay for Jason Brown
About four days before free agency began, contract negotiations between the Baltimore Ravens and Center Jason Brown stalled, and Brown publicly criticized the team in leaving them. He got the money he was looking for for the Rams, but ultimately Brown loses out. For less money, the team brought in pro bowl C Matt Birk from Minnesota, who was also being lowballed, and used their first round selection to draft an offensive lineman, Ole Miss' Michael Oher. If they had gone over the top for Brown, I'm not sure those moves are possible, and Birk would still be a Viking.

3. The Browns don't sell low on Braylon Edwards
Yes, his year last year was horrific. Which is all the more reason not to go and trade him. The Browns are a team that needs to hoard their talent right now, not deal it. This is especially true since the team decided that Kellen Winslow was too much of a cancer, and sent him to Tampa for a second round pick. Losing Edwards and Winslow in the same offseason might have handicapped the Browns a bit too much, so by choosing to move Winslow, keeping Edwards became the right move, and allows Edwards to re-establish himself in 2009.

2. The Redskins do not replace Jason Campbell
The one move this year that could have easily been an unmitigated disaster was the proposed three team deal between the Bucs, the Redskins, and the Broncos that would have sent Campbell to Tampa for a second round pick in 2010, and Jay Cutler to the Redskins for two firsts. Cutler would have found himself in a Vanderbilt-like offense with only one competent target and a declining defense. Instead, the Redskins invested in a pass rusher and a cornerback in the 2009 draft, and now have young reinforcements to help out an aging starting defense. The offense is better off as well. Cutler and Campbell don't play the same game, and Campbell's the one who may win more games this year going forward.

1. The Cardinals don't lose an integral part of the 2008 NFL runner-up team
Between Bertrand Berry, Karlos Dansby, Anquan Boldin, Adrian Wilson, and Kurt Warner, and the limited amount of cap space the team had, it's amazing that they've kept all of those parts, have extended Wilson, are close with Dansby, and have made all moves without jeopardizing the team's ability to improve itself elsewhere, via the draft (Beanie Wells) and free agency (Bryant McFadden). It's a remarkable adjustment from the same old Cardinals talk that had flooded airwaves when they let Kurt Warner take a cursory tour of the Niners practice facility. But much more importantly, it gives the current group another go at it, without having to spend a critical season or two replacing the talent lost. This was the very best offseason move not made.

Catching up: Birkett leaves the Lions beat

Sun, 28 Jun 2009 19:31:57 -0500

Coming off of major surgery, I have to be honest with you. There were a few weeks where I wasn't paying much attention to the Lions. I was kinda busy, you know?

But what did happen over the past few weeks in Lions-land? I plan on spending the next week catching up. Thus, the "Catching up" headline.

First off in "Catching up", we have news that is tangentially about the Detroit Lions, but news which will drastically affect their press coverage...and not in a good way.

The Oakland Press' Dave Birkett has left the Detroit Lions beat.

Apparently he has left the paper, but will be still writing locally, covering Michigan and the Big Ten, at the new AnnArbor.com (which is the reincarnated, web only version of the Ann Arbor News). His Press blog, the once must read "Birk's Eye View", has now become "Lions Lowdown", with several contributors. There was a reason I checked Birkett's Press blog multiple times a day; he broke news. I doubt we'll be seeing any breaking news from "Lions Lowdown".

This is not cool folks, as Birkett had become one of my go-to guys for all things Detroit Lions. Birkett leaving the Lions beat is a big time loss for we fans. (Though he'll be a positive addition to the Wolverines beat, which lost Jim Carty. Carty left sports writing altogether when he saw the print version of the AA News going into its death throes)

Birkett, along with Mlive's Killer Kowalski (who also works for a news organization having major financial issues. Then again, is there a print entity that isn't having money problems?), broke Lions news more often and faster then their counterparts at the Freep and News.

I've often been a critic of the MSM, but as a blogger with no real "access", I have to depend upon the beat writers (who have the hardest job in print, don't get me going on certain lazy columnists) for the latest in Lions information. Good beat writers, in all sports, are getting harder and harder to find.

We're still lucky in Detroit, and better off than most cities with big league sports. We do have a competent group of beat writers covering the Lions, Tigers, Red Wings, Pistons, Wolverines and Spartans. But the best of the best see the writing, and it's not on the wall, definitely not in print, but on the web, and are leaving for greener online pastures.

Last year, Mlive lost their Tigers beat writer, who was the best in town, Danny Knobler, to CBSSports.com.

The man who took the mantle from Knobler as best Tigers beat guy, Jon Paul Morosi, left the Freep for FoxSports.com earlier this year.

The one Lions writer who had seen it all, Mike O'Hara, retired from the Lions beat after decades of coverage with the Detroit News early last season. Say what you will about his predictions, O'Hara knew the Lions inside out. (O'Hara still has one foot in the journalism door, having gone freelance and joining the world of blogging. His blog is a fun read for Lions fans)

Now we can add Birkett to the list.

But be it through attrition, buy outs, moving to web only gigs, or their parent companies going under, this is just the beginning of the end. Local coverage of all sports is going to take a huge hit. Dave Birkett leaving the Lions beat is just the latest. It won't be the last.

As fans, we're all the worse off.

Church of Schwartz roundtable alert! Oh yeah, I'm back!

Sat, 27 Jun 2009 12:54:18 -0500

It's time once again for another of Rev. Spielman's roundtable Q & A sessions over at The Church of Schwartz.

It's been long enough after the surgery (I went under the knife exactly one month ago, on May 27th, a day which will live on in personal infamy), and I'm finally somewhat lucid, I feel up to writing again. (By the way, Eno and I are also a go for The Knee Jerks on Blog Talk Radio Monday night!)

Thus, here's my contribution to the latest Q & A. For the opinions of other Lions bloggers and media members, please head over to The Church of Schwartz!

1. How does recent signing Marquand Manuel fit in the secondary picture?

The Lions have been signing relatively inexpensive, yet quite competent NFL veterans since Martin Mayhew and his posse took over Detroit's front office. Marquand Manuel continues the meme. A meme of which I approve.

I'm not expecting big things from Manuel. But it doesn't mean he won't be a solid player for the Lions. You just can't have enough NFL quality pass defenders on your roster, advice something Jim Schwartz and Mayhew apparently agree upon.

He's not a star by any means, but be it as a spot starter, injury replacement, and/or a depth guy, Manuel will definitely be a positive contributor in the defensive backfield. In other words, he's a player of the sort the Lions have sorely lacked for the past several seasons. They seem intent on fixing the issue by signing as many veteran NFL backups and spot starters as possible to cap friendly deals.

2. In your dreams, how many wins do the Lions end up with this year?

Considering my dreams of late have been heavily influenced by the big time pain meds I'm taking after my back surgery, I'd love to believe my recent dreams of Jim Schwartz leading the Lions to a 16-0 regular season is what my unconscious truly, honestly believes. But I know better after being on oxycontin for the past 4 weeks. The stuff can play games with your mind...

My true, drug-free, dream season would be the Lions finishing with 8 wins, and competing for the division title well into December.

I know neither dream is realistic, but they are called "dreams" for a reason, right?

3. What is your best guess for how many wins the Lions actually get this year?

My best case Lions scenario is 6 wins, with a worst case of 2, So I'll split the difference and predict Detroit wins 4 games in 2009.

Hey, fans of most any NFL franchise would be thrilled beyond belief by a 4 game improvement in the win column!

All a 4 win improvement means in the D is the Lions are still a last place team.

God damn, it's tough being a Lions fan.

On a personal note, it's great to be back, everyone! Thank you for your patience and support!

NFL Top 10: Best Storylines heading into 2009

Sat, 06 Jun 2009 18:55:00 -0500

I really love spending hours putting together the research for a long-winded heavy analytical post, but sometimes, a fan needs to appreciate the game from a different perspective. This isn't going to provide any insight into why teams will win and lose this year, but because it's June, and we're two months from training camp, I'll forgive myself.

Today, NFL Top 10 takes a look at the best storylines entering 2009, as well as those potential developing storylines that could shape the upcoming NFL season.

10. Ray Lewis, Rex Ryan, and defense in the AFC
If the Baltimore Ravens are going to make good on my super bowl appearance prediction, they can't allow the media to even speculate that they might be missing Rex Ryan. The effect of defensive coordinator on a team's defense has certainly been overstated throughout the years, so we'll never know if the Ravens are actually missing Rex Ryan. They need a great defensive season from start to finish to dispel the argument that they will miss him. Meanwhile, the Jets will only be relevant this year if they can rely on their running game. And they will only be able to call on their running game if their defense is top notch. I think the expectations are still higher in Baltimore than they are for the Jets. But with three wins in September, Rex Ryan can change the expectations. Be warned.

9. Will Jason Campbell prove Dan Snyder wrong?
What we know -- the Redskins had significant interest in both Jay Cutler and Mark Sanchez at different points this offseason. To their credit, they never publicly acted as if they were disappointed with Jason Campbell's development, but I don't think they were convincing enough with their non-action to dispel rumors. Anyway, Jason Campbell has one thing going for him, and that's the fact that he survived a Dan Snyder shopping spree while keeping his job. There's no actual precedent for that happening, but Campbell, for now, has the full backing of the organization, and all eyes will be on him to prove management foolish for entertaining other ideas this offseason.

8. Adrian Peterson
Can this happen? Will Adrian Peterson have three consecutive 1,300 yard seasons to begin his career? But more importantly, will Peterson develop to the point at which he can offer more value to his team than the occasional explosive play and consistent 5.0 yard rushing average. Obviously, the passing woes for the Vikings are really not Peterson's fault, but he hasn't exactly helped out his team with top notch pass blocking, and he's averaging fewer than 200 yards a year in the passing game. If Peterson becomes an all purpose option this season, the Vikings should return to the playoffs. If he posts another empty 1,200 yard with a middling 8-10 TDs, well, let's hold off on the coronation.

7. After 0-16, how long will the Lions losing streak last?
The Lions have a pretty brutal pre-bye schedule, but their first two opponents: New Orleans and Minnesota should not take them lightly. The Lions are looking at a team with a struggling run defense, and another team that could be missing both of it's all pro defensive tackles. Last year, the Lions' season got off on the wrong foot when the Falcons and 49ers shredded them on the ground, and this year, the Lions will snap their losing streak when their ground game starts to chew up it's competition. If history suggests anything, it's that it won't take them very long.

6. T.O. and North America's Team
The Bills have not really had this much firepower since they had a top defense in 2004, only to watch Drew Bledsoe and the Pittsburgh Steelers' second teamers dashed their playoff hopes. But, for the first time in 5 years, the talent to compete is on the roster. Like most small market teams, they are not without holes, specifically on the offensive line, but Trent Edwards' inconsistencies should be tempered now that he's throwing to two very established receivers. The defense should be typically strong under Dick Jauron, and the Bills can pound the rock, so this season is all about the passing game and the health of a somewhat thin offense. T.O. is somewhat of a 6 million dollar side show, but the increased attention will be very welcome for the Bills.

5. Will Drew Brees solidify his place among the games' elite?
Daunte Culpepper. Donovan McNabb. Carson Palmer. Tony Romo. Since Tom Brady and Peyton Manning exploded onto the NFL scene in 2004 as the two quarterbacks that every personnel evaluator would most like to have behind center, the pundits have attempted to christen a third member to this elite class every year. It hasn't worked. None of the names listed above have consistently produced at at elite level worthy of the highest of expectations. Drew Brees is looking to change all that this season. Another 4,000 yard season in which Brees takes the Saints back to the top of the NFC would mean that Brees should be mentioned in the same breath as Brady or Manning, who are the hall of fame quarterbacks from this era. We're that close to be talking about Drew Brees as a hall of fame level quarterback. You get the feeling if he's ever going to get to that level, this is going to be the year for Brees and the Saints.

4. Whilst the Steelers repeat?
That team that won the NFL Championship last year, the Steelers, return all the crucial parts of their playoff machine from last year. So the main question here is: who, if anyone, can topple these guys? History says the Steelers will not repeat, because just because you beat all 31 other teams to the Super Bowl title one year does not guarantee you success over any one team the following year. The odds are stacked against every team at the beginning of the year, super bowl champs included. But the Patriots did win 3 Super Bowls this decade. Is it even possible that a team who won three super bowls might not be remembered as the dominant team of the decade? The Steelers have a once-in-a-lifetime shot to do just that. Is it possible? It's not like the Redskins or Giants are considered the team of the 80's, nor were the Raiders or Cowboys considered the team of the 70's. No decade has ever seen two different teams win three super bowls, and the only ten year span in which two teams won three titles each were the 49ers and Cowboys from the late to mid 90's. The Steelers look to make history with the Pats this year.

3. Jay Cutler/Josh McDaniels
Jay Cutler's wish to be cut free from the tyranny of a 33 year old head coach he had yet to meet before may have adverse effects on his career in the long run. Jay Cutler was basically guaranteed long term success with the Denver Broncos. However, with Chicago, it's going to feel a lot like his college days with Vandy. Understand, the Bears have talented players on offense with Cutler, but it's not at all like Denver, when every player the Broncos roster was capable of stepping up when called on. Cutler is going to find himself frustrated with the limitations of Devin Hester, with the never-ending search to find a go-to third down receiver, with Desmond Clark's maddening inconsistencies, with an offensive line that will blow simple protections from time to time, and with a running game that will go AWOL for month-long periods. Meanwhile, McDaniels has an incredibly promising offense, but he's basically given up on it's two most dependable players: Cutler and TE Tony Sheffler. So for McDaniels, his key will be developing a super star or two out of a bunch that includes Kyle Orton, Knowshon Moreno, and Brandon Marshall. Good luck and godspeed, coach. You've got the best chance to win this trade, but you better hope for the best...and that someone tackles on defense this year.

2. The Colts' Playoff streak in limbo
Since Tony Dungy came to Indianapolis in 2002, the Indy Colts have posted the following EA Sports-like win totals: 10, 12, 12, 14, 12, 13, 12. I mean, holy God. They've made the playoffs 7 out of 7 years, in the prime years of the greatest quarterback to ever play the game. 6 consecutive 12 wins seasons. 9 playoff appearances in the last ten years. Put it this way: The Indy Colts of the last 7 years are every bit the comparable to the Atlanta Braves, 1991-2005. But Dungy is gone, Marvin Harrison is gone, Ron Meeks is gone, and at least temporarily, Howard Mudd and Tom Moore are gone. The only QB in NFL history who compares to Manning, Dan Marino, had a prime of his career that, while not as impressively consistent as Manning, lasted though age-34 (1995) before he lost his all-worldly level of play.

That would suggest Manning has two more years at this insane level of productivity. But Peyton's hallmark has been that incredible consistency: if he plays to whatever age Brett Favre does without missing a start, he will break his consecutive starts record. But the one certainty in sports is that the last years of a super star will be played at a lower productivity level than his middle years. Even, yes, in the case of Barry Sanders. The big question here is that, if Peyton Manning plays at a 9 or 10 win level this year instead of a 12 or 13 win level, are the Colts good enough to pick him up and make the playoffs again. If not, the streak is in jeopardy, again.

1. The Patriots vs. the World
While the questions around Manning circle around how long he will be able to play at a never seen before level of play, Tom Brady has to prove he can pick up exactly where he left off. Brady's window to win championships will last about three more seasons. And he returns in 2009 with a cast of receivers that he has never lost with in regular season play. Again, Manning enters this season with a quite wonder about his remarkable abilities, but his expectation is much lower. With Brady, it's almost as if 12-4 and anything short of a championship season and 1st team all-pro status would mark a disappointment for the young QB. If Matt Cassel can go 10-5, Brady should be good for at least 13 wins. Or so the logic goes. Tom Brady will ultimately be judged by how he does in the postseason, but it looks like the only team on the Pats' schedule this year that will beat them is themselves.

The One Who Will Make or Break the 2009 Minnesota Vikings

Tue, 02 Jun 2009 00:27:26 -0800

No, not Adrian Peterson. And no, not that starting quarterback who has yet to be identified.

The Minnesota Vikings have worked, prepared, and have established themselves as one of the better teams in the NFC; and in the NFL in that matter. But there always seems to be one Achilles' heel that prevents the Vikings from hoisting the Lombardi in the Super Bowl.

For the upcoming 2009 season, the Vikings' Super Bowl chances seem to hinge on one player.

Rookie and Wide Receiver: Percy Harvin.

The two-time NCAA Football champion from the University of Florida has the game-breaking potential on both offense and on special teams to elicit an NFC Championship for the Minnesota faithful.

Making him the 22^nd pick of this past NFL Draft as been said to be a risk versus reward pick. I believe we have found a much bigger reward in Harvin.

With that said, there are many ways within the X's and O's where Percy Harvin can elevate the adequate play that the Vikings have been making a mockery of this past decade.

First of all, we all know that Percy Harvin provides that game-breaking speed that is so rare to find at this level. He not only can turn nothing into something. But to greatness. Having a speed threat is always a plus: there's the intimidation factor for the opposing team's defensive backs and points are scored much quicker. But most importantly, "speed demons" provide a sense of momentum that can't be found anywhere else on the gridiron.

Percy Harvin brings all three of those qualities to the Minnesota Vikings.

Percy Harvin (Source: Flickr)

With him, the Vikings will be a defensive nightmare. We could easily see some double teams on Harvin out wide. With that, more and more options open up for Coach Brad Childress. Maybe a Bernard Berrian frees up out as the flanker, or Sidney Rice or Bobby Wade in the slot.

But the best possibilities, you ask?

Well, look no further than halfback. Adrian Peterson is ready to attack his third season in the league in full gear. This speed on the edge that Percy Harvin provides will ultimately even help MVP candidate Adrian Peterson elevate his game. If Harvin can sustain some success in the wailing moments of the season, defense coordinators will be scratching their heads as if they were aerospace engineers developing new futuristic aircrafts.

This past season, Peterson faced many nine-man fronts - by far more than any other back in the league. And if it wasn't a nine-man box, he was facing eight-man fronts - which is already a fierce battle for a tailback and his offensive line.

But with success out wide with Harvin, the chances the Vikings are confronted with another nine-man front is as likely that Brett Favre is actually done toying with the idea of returning to the NFL. In other words (for the non-sports fan) it's not going to happen.

For Adrian Peterson, Percy Harvin is a godsend. After two completely successful seasons for the Vikings' run game in 2007 and 08, Peterson is ready to embark on a second consecutive rushing title, rushing for more than 2,000 yards, and earning the coveted MVP award.

I can't even imagine what Peterson will be able to do to defenses with only an eight-man box in front of him. The sky must be the limit. Or at least the Metrodome ceiling.

So, we can already see the immediate impact that Harvin can have on the running game and his fellow receivers. But we aren't even close to being done. Well, maybe.

Percy Harvin also has a legitimate shot in initiating big strides in the special teams aspect of the game. In the past few seasons, the Vikings have had dreadful special teams, aside from field goal kicking. After watching their coverage teams the past two seasons, I feel my USC Trojans can do a better job.

No, Harvin will not help the coverage teams. Or - at least - I wouldn't think so. But he can electrify the Dome in an instance with a shifty punt return to the house. Or an equally exciting play in football - the 100-yard kickoff return for TD. He will for sure bring some smiles on Vikings' fans that haven't been so evident in years past.

Another reason; and maybe the most obvious, Percy Harvin will help out the quarterback - whoever that may be. While we don't know who will be starting for Minnesota in 2009, either Tarvaris Jackson or Sage Rosenfels - or Brett Favre, Percy will be a major factor in facilitating more options.

But regardless, the Vikings' quarterback situation is iffy at best. And I'm still not confident - although hopeful - we have the quarterback for a late playoff run. However no matter who quarterbacks the Vikes, Percy Harvin will create creases against the defenses. This will definitely ease the job for the starting QB. The speed will create double teams, creating other options for open wide receivers, and will simply provide another solid option for the Vikings to look at for the upcoming season.

But lastly, Percy Harvin may even assist in running the offense. This past weekend, the usually conservative-minded Brad Childress finally broke out of his shell - and according to the Minneapolis Star-Tribune - unleashed 30 new plays involving Harvin in the shotgun - all running the Wildcat offense.

Having successfully ran the Wildcat in some fashion at the University of Florida is what really excited most Vikings fans, including myself. A player who be utilized in various positions is always a weapon, especially if those include WR, RB, and QB. Just imagine him taking a snap with Adrian Peterson in the backfield.

Oh my, this could get exciting. Or Percy Harvin running the option with AD right behind him.

Or Percy running a play-action with AD, and turning up the field for a 40-yard score.

Wow. I can't wait for this season.

At this time, there can't be any real accolades and predictions on how Harvin will perform in his rookie year. But, let me tell you.

Everything is shaping out to be exactly like I hoped.

It all seems like a perfect fit for Percy Harvin in Minnesota. With the off-field work and practices getting done, he just needs to keep on running like the Energizer bunny. If so, the Minnesota Vikings just might be playing in February.

Gosh, I sure hope so.

NFL Crystal Ball: Projecting the Rookie Quarterbacks

Mon, 01 Jun 2009 08:00:00 -0500

It was universally agreed upon by draft analysts that the 2009 NFL Draft's quarterback class was one of the weakest in memory. But when the first round was said and done, the results suggested that the teams disagreed: 3 quarterbacks picked in the first round, all before the 20th pick was made.

On this kind of thing, history suggests that the majority draft opinion usually produces more first round names than there are actual first round talents. The bust rate for all rookie QBs is around 50%, but that figure is considerably lower in the top 20 picks of the first round, which more directly applies to the three gentlemen who will be the primary focus of this article: Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, and Josh Freeman.

I will rely heavily on historical draft position in this analytical and predictive column. Draft position helps to separate the elite prospects from the good prospects, and give insight into how actual NFL decision makers approach the draft process.

Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions

Draft Comparables: JaMarcus Russell, Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Carson Palmer, David Carr, Michael Vick, Tim Couch, Peyton Manning

First overall picks tend to make excellent quarterbacks. However, the exceptions to the rule are the most recent two picks. Is there something that stands out about those players compared to the rest? Well, I think Russell and Smith both became first overall picks only because the teams that drafted them reached for them because they were the highest rated quarterbacks, not the highest rated players. We can conclude that Alex Smith is a worse player than either Aaron Rodgers or Jason Campbell, but even at the time, the logic was that he should not have been a first overall pick. Same deal with Russell. A lot of people would have taken him before Brady Quinn in that draft, but not one G.M. would have taken him over, say, Calvin Johnson. Well, Al Davis did, but I think the consensus was that he was alone in his John Elway comparisons. And though the wide range of prospects with the first overall pick should make one think twice about Stafford, unless you believe that Detroit had him vastly overrated in their evaluations, I mean, a round or two ahead of where he should have gone, history suggests the Lions have found a Quarterback.

Additionally, the Lions seem to have a clear plan on offense, where the rebuilding effort should lead to immediate dividends. The team is strong at all the skill positions, and though there are questions with the offensive line, particularly LT Jeff Backus, the team hasn't exactly ignored the position over the offseason. I expect Daunte Culppeper to enjoy some success in the offense this year, and after the season, it looks like the offense as a whole will improve as it's quarterback does. I think the best comparable here is the 2003 Bengals. That year, the team took Carson Palmer 1st overall with it's superstar receiver going into his third season. They made changes in the running game, moving out Corey Dillion for Rudi Johnson. For the Lions, it's coincidence that Rudi will give way to Kevin Smith and Maurice Morris, but that's a strong tandem. If you'll remember, the team improved under the veteran QB (Kitna), and won 8 games, then made the switch to the 1st overall pick and made no improvement in the win column the next year. Then the offense reached new heights in 2005.

My draft comparable for Stafford was Kerry Collins, a fifth overall pick back in 1996. On the Lions, I see a similarity to Carson Palmer. Palmer, to some, is a top 5 QB, and to others, he's merely top half. Collins, in his Giants days, was similarly rated by fans. Palmer probably has one more year to produce at a pro bowl type level before he loses his face of the franchise label. Matthew Stafford's career will likely look something like Collins, Palmer, or possibly Vinny Testeverde. He will be the architect of powerful offenses in Detroit. He's not good enough by himself to carry a team, but he's a passer with franchise type tools, and is capable of a pro bowl level performance or two over his career.

Mark Sanchez, New York Jets

Draft Comparables: Matt Ryan, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Byron Leftwich, Joey Harrington, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, Daunte Culpepper, Ryan Leaf, Jake Plummer, Heath Schuler, Steve McNair, Trent Dilfer

Those draft comparables are all over the map. It gets more clear if you eliminate the comparables who were not drafted in a year where there was a quarterback taken at No. 1 overall. That leaves: Aaron Rodgers, Ben Roethlisberger, Byron Leftwich, Joey Harrington, Donovan McNabb, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, Daunte Culpepper, and Ryan Leaf. The successes of the bunch would be Roethlisberger, McNabb, and Culpepper, and the outright busts would be Leaf, Smith, Harrington, and McNown.

The difference between the first overall pick and the second QB taken in the draft is that the bust rate becomes very, very noticeable at the point where Sanchez was taken. What's interesting is that of the teams that took busts with comparable picks to Sanchez, three of those teams have since used the first overall pick on a quarterback (SD - Rivers, DET - Stafford, CIN - Palmer). That's not telling to Sanchez's chances of being a bust, but it is interesting that the teams that missed on a non-first overall pick QB have not been gun shy about spending even more money to right the ship.

Sanchez, by far, is the toughest projection of the three to make. We can't rule out him becoming a pro-bowler or an epic bust, but can it least argue that he's most likely to become either a Leftwich or a Rodgers more than any other comparable. The Rodgers comparison is the closest I can come to having most similar conditions, but it's also a somewhat useless comparison. First of all, we don't know how Rodgers would have performed if he had been forced to play his first three seasons, like Sanchez is going to. Secondly, we only have 16 Aaron Rodgers starts altogether. Finally, Rodgers has a incredibly fertile offensive environment, and Sanchez isn't necessarily entitled to the same thing.

On the low end, he's another Harrington. On the high end, he's another McNabb. Most likely, he's going to be another Leftwich; whatever the Jets want to make of him. Essentially, that's who Aaron Rodgers is anyway. Sanchez is going to struggle for a year, maybe two. He's a system quarterback who can blossom into the guy the Jets want to believe they have, but only if the team develops talent properly around him.

Josh Freeman, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Draft Comparables: Joe Flacco, Brady Quinn, Jason Campbell, Jay Cutler, JP Losman, Kyle Boller, Rex Grossman, Patrick Ramsey, Drew Brees, Chad Pennington, Jim Druckenmiller

The comparables on Freeman are noticeably worse than the other two rookies. Three comparables became franchise quarterbacks. Four became outright busts. Patrick Ramsey is somewhere in the middle. Three still control their own destiny.

Flacco, Cutler, and Pennington played at weaker programs than the other comparables, but so did Losman and Ramsey. The problem, unlike Sanchez whose comparables were all over the place, is that none of Freeman's comparables is particularly close. One of his closest comparables based on draft profile is Matthew Stafford, but we don't have any information on him yet, and he went first overall. We know the NFL is generally unkind to underclassmen, particularly ones with limited college production at lesser programs, but generally those players get picked in the later rounds. Freeman was a first round selection, and probably would have gone even higher if he had returned for his senior year. And that suggests that he will NOT fail.

The only real obvious comparable that I can bring up would be JaMarcus Russell: had the Raiders not taken him in 2007, he would have ended up in about the range which Freeman was taken. The truth is that Freeman is almost universally a stronger prospect than Russell was despite the comparables. Russell has struggled to complete passes consistently at the NFL level, but the Buccaneers took Freeman in spite of a declining completion percentage at K-State, which would be a positive indicator of NFL improvement.

Freeman is probably the best pure quarterback (most likely franchise QB) of the three prospects, but also has the furthest to go. This is scary, because history suggests that the NFL will not be able to help him make up for what he did not learn as a senior in college. Freeman is not as likely to bust as Sanchez is, I don't think. He'll benefit from tempered expectations, but Tampa Bay isn't exactly a great spot for a rookie quarterback to head into right now. My gut says that Freeman will have the best career of the three when it's all said and done, but admittedly, that prediction is not based on a lot of hard evidence.

Freeman probably made a poor decision by coming out of college when he did. Poor, but understandable. K-State switched coaches (and systems), and probably wouldn't have been relevant in the Big XII even if Freeman had returned. And even if Freeman had a college best 2009 season, he would have been in the draft with names like Bradford, McCoy, and Tebow, not to mention others. By coming out now, Freeman got himself into the first round of the NFL draft. If there's a player out of the three who is most likely to one day carry the Lombardi trophy, boy, it's hard to bet against Freeman being that guy.

The Best of the Rest

San Francisco's Nate Davis plays a lot like Drew Brees, but Davis must overcome a learning disability if he is ever going to rise to the top of the depth chart in an NFL offense. San Francisco is a place where he is likely to make the roster, as he simply has to push veterans Damon Huard or Shaun Hill should one falter in the preseason.

Denver's Tom Brandstater has prototypical NFL size, and he's going to find himself in the QB mix in Denver sooner rather than later. Plus, as a sixth round pick, his name is too close to Tom Brady to not mention.

Jansen Out; We Talk Offensive Line

Sat, 30 May 2009 21:45:00 +0000

Multiple sources, beginning with Cindy Boren of the Washington Post, report that the Redskins have released RT Jon Jansen. As of this posting, Jansen is in contract negotiations to join the Detroit Lions. Jansen is from Michigan and went to Michigan for college ball.

This move neither helps nor hurts the Redskins win next year and in the future. That seems a good of place as any to start. Jansen very well might have been the best RT the team had on the roster, but he was also the oldest by far, and the team isn't missing anything that they can't replace by letting Jansen go. Jansen was still a good performer against mediocre talent, but couldn't keep up with the fastest players in the game anymore. His effort last year was sometimes lacking, but overall, he put in his best season since 2006.

Really, the issue with Jansen began back before the 2007 season when he was awarded a new 5 year contract from the team after appearing in 31 of the teams 32 regular season games over the 2005 and 2006 seasons. Jansen missed all of 2004, suffering a season ending injury in the Hall of Fame game, as up until that point, he had been in the prime seasons of his career. So the team could be excused for giving a 5 year extension to a 31 year old player who missed only one season with a catastrophic injury, and then one game in December of a lost season. That was the only game Jansen had missed in any season since 1999, save 2004. And with the team strapped for cap space, someone had to get the extension.

But Jansen was two years into a deal he signed in 2005, so this was more of a restructuring than an extension (the Redskins added a year to the deal), and it didn't save the Redskins a great deal of money under the cap at the time. It was just sort of a perplexing vote of confidence for Jansen, who, if the team was lucky, would have had one more season at his current level of performance before age inevitably forced his decline. If you'll remember, the 2007 Redskins went all of mini camp thinking that Todd Wade of all people would fill the hole at LG created by the departure of Derrick Dockery. That would have been an excellent time to restructure Jansen's contract to extend his career at Guard, and then move him over to the left side and fill that hole. But the team, at the time, was convinced that he and Samuels would be bookend tackles for the foreseeable future.

That was two years ago.

Jansen broke his leg in Week 1 of 2007, and missed the remainder of the season. If the Redskins could have been justified in rewarding Jansen prior to 2007, a 31 year old tackle who breaks his ankle should send up a red flag to all involved that the team needs a backup plan. If nothing else, the team found Stephon Heyer that year, as he exceeded expectations on a team that slugged through it's difficult schedule, making the playoffs by the slimmest of margins. So it's the offseason. You've found a promising tackle prospect who is 23, just one season following a major extension to your current right tackle. He's probably not better than the incumbent, but he's eight years younger, and basically free in the eyes of the salary cap for the next two seasons. What do you do with the incumbent?

If you answered, "guarantee him his base salary for 2008, and spread it out over the life of the deal," then you've earned a job with the Redskins Front Office! If there was any question about who would start at right tackle for the Redskins the following season, it was answered on that day. The Redskins freed up 3 million dollars in cap space with the move, which was more valuable to the team then figuring out who would block for Jason Campbell that season. Of course, Jim Zorn's first move of significance with the team was establishing that Stephon Heyer, not Jon Jansen would be the opening day starter at RT. This likely was not the correct personnel decision, as Jansen would start 11 games at RT last year, but it shows the rift between the people who make the contract decisions, and the head coach within this organization. Let me show you the difference that guaranteed salary made on the 2009 salary cap situation:

Jon Jansen, 2009 cap hit given no restructure in 2008: $2.0 million (Net Cap Relief +$1.3 million)
Jon Jansen, 2009 cap hit: $6.0 million (Net Cap Relief -$2.7 million)

Put simply, you simply don't make that restructure unless you are convinced that Jansen will have value to your team through the next three seasons or so.

Fast forward to today.

The Redskins will not have a problem eating the cap hit. They have plenty of unused cap space that they lucked into, in fact, you could say that the Jansen release is a product of having more cap space than expected, and that the team is simply being opportunistic by getting rid of a player who is in neither their current or future plans now, and giving him a chance to go play elsewhere. From that perspective, the Jansen release is a good, if not a great move. But you don't have to be great at reading between the lines to conclude that prior to this week--when the cap increased by one million dollars per some fine print in the CBA--the Redskins felt like they needed to keep Jansen on the roster not because they felt he could help this team win this year, but because releasing him was going to hurt the team's ability to win more than it could help it.

Good teams don't find themselves in this situations, when they are essentially stuck with a player on their roster who they are disenchanted with. And you also have a human resources problem. Jon Jansen is not just a likable guy, he perhaps defined more than any other player what fans call a "True Redskin." And even if Jim Zorn feels that he can do better at RT than Jansen, he always reserves the right to make the move that will benefit the team. You just can't spend an offseason getting a player to re-define his role into a super-utility lineman, telling him that he's going to be valuable to the team in his role, and then cast him to the side when it becomes financially feasible to do so. It's just bad management, especially for a player with Jansen's history here.

The Redskins will probably find a better use for Jansen's roster spot than using him as a backup interior lineman. Probably. The issue that the Redskins make important decisions on the margin and only when a contract forces them to do so isn't going away. The time to decide Jansen is in decline is before you give him a new contract, and before you guarantee his salary as a signing bonus, not when you find you CAN release him. Jim Zorn made the call to cut Jansen, but the Redskins organization has not treated Jansen well since last offseason, and worst of all, appears to be scapegoating him for issues on the OL that still exist.

Jansen will be happier backing up in Detroit than he would have been here. It never should have reached that point though.

2009 Offensive Line

The team was not planning on using Jon Jansen anyway, so the most significant result of his release is that it opens up another spot on the roster for a younger player to win in training camp.

The Redskins will keep 9 lineman. They have no word yet on G Pete Kendall's intentions to sign with the team, but absent him coming back to the team, you have to like UDFA C Edwin Williams' opportunity to win the backup C job. As of right now, you have Heyer firmly entrenched as the starter at RT. He is backed up by reclamation project Mike Williams, and FA signing G/T Jeremy Bridges, with practice squad member Devin Clark behind him. That's a 2/3 deal in terms of making the team. Right now, it's up to Williams to prove he belongs in football, and then Clark could be sent to the practice squad for the second straight year. Heyer also happens to be the backup LT, so this position is not only of relevance if Heyer gets hurt, but also if Samuels missing time causes the team to move Heyer over to LT.

Assuming Bridges makes the team, which is still an assumption at this point, he would likely handle backup duty at RG as well as RT. That leaves one available spot, backup LG, at which the front runner is last year's third round pick, Chad Rinehart. Rinehart's job security is threatened by the chance that the team brings Pete Kendall back for veteran depth. Kendall is also able to handle Center, so Edwin Williams becomes a practice squad candidate if Kendall signs. There's a lot of uncertainty here, but Jansen's release helps sort things out a bit, even as the situation was mismanaged.

Tonight on The Knee Jerks Live! (TAKE 2)

Tue, 26 May 2009 09:25:00 -0500

(Another note from Big Al: We had SEVERE technical difficulties with Blog Talk Radio last night, and we were forced to end our show before it really got started, at 10 minutes in. It was a total debacle, as BTR kept disconnecting, leaving lots of dead air. So we called it a night, and deleted the show from the server.

We are going to try again tonight at 11PM. Keith Shelton if Bleacher Report is brave enough to try joining us again! Please feel free to join our glitch-free show! as well)

It's a very special expanded post Memorial Day edition of the Knee Jerks, as we have our first guest!

Joining us is the Bleacher Report's premier Detroit Red Wings writer Keith Shelton, as we give our knee jerk opinions on the Red Wings - Blackhawks NHL Western Conference finals.

We'll also add our slant to the past week of Detroit Tigers news and touch on the Lions and Pistons as new stories break out of Allen Park or Auburn Hills. We'll also play our most popular old bit, word association, and we'll name our respective Jerk of the Week!

Finish off your day with fireworks (Hey, it's not the 4th,m but it is a holiday) from the Knee Jerks!

Listen LIVE at Blog Talk Radio!

Note from Big Al: By the way, TWFE has been fairly quiet for the last week or so because I've been preparing for my (extensive) back surgery this week. I'll let you all know what is up with me, and what to expect over the next couple of weeks, later today.

Thanks for listening and reading!

NFL Crystal Ball: Detroit Lions will be NFL's Most Improved

Sat, 23 May 2009 15:45:00 -0500

Well, okay. Not exactly making an outlandish statement there.

But I'll go a step further than the title suggests: I'll say right now that the Lions will win at least three games in which they come in as an underdog of 6.5 points or more.

Sure, you'd expect the Lions to handle the Rams when they come to town following the teams' bye week, but looking at the Lions schedule, you might not expect them to be particularly competitive against the AFC North, or even the rest of the NFC.

But, you know what, do not be surprised if the Lions jump out to a 2-0 start in 2009, traveling to the Superdome to play the Saints in week one, and then handling the Vikings at home in week two. You see, the Lions did a fantastic, Miami-like job of turning over the players who were primarily responsible for the 16 losses in 2008, while identifying the building blocks on the roster (Jeff Backus, Stephen Peterman, Calvin Johnson, and Kevin Smith) and keeping them around. They added instant impact players in the draft in TE Brandon Pettigrew and S Louis Delmas. They have the running game, they have the receiving corps, and not to excuse poor play from the past, but Daunte Culpepper has not had a full offseason to work within an offense since he left Minnesota in 2005. Four years later, he's going to get that chance in a ready made offense in Detroit. Yes, a ready-made offense...in Detroit.

Reality check: None of this really pegs the Lions to be a playoff team in a competitive, if wide-open, division. They still were the worst defense in the history of the NFL last season. They've made some great additions on that side of the ball, but will rely on the development of players like Delmas to be an elite defense one day. They already "quick fixed" the unit to an extent, but before it will be a team strength, they must acquire young talent, and develop it.

In the future, a lot of the fortunes of the team will ride on the arm of Matthew Stafford, and his ability to find Calvin Johnson and Brandon Pettigrew. It will rely on the legs of Kevin Smith. And those players, save Johnson, don't figure to make a huge impact this year.

But the Lions, coming off only the second winless NFL season since the merger, have put together on the cheap something of a core nucleus of talent in a single offseason. If that only manifests itself in a five or six win season, well, I think a lot of Lions fans will be very satisfied with the overall product. But, because of the money invested in the 2009 draft class, a 6 win improvement over last year would only be seen as a first step, and would put super high expectations in place for the beginning Matt Stafford's tenure in 2010. Not to get ahead of myself, but that would be a pretty impressive two year turnaround by head coach Jim Schwartz.