MVN: Most Valuable Network

Red NWO! Look out it's Sting!  And Another Sting!

When I first heard the Nats were intested in Randy Wolf I was excited. Then I realized that as usual I confused him with Paul Byrd.  I like Paul Byrd. Not a lot, mind you.  But he's a perfectly average pitcher who you can count on for innings, who might benefit with a move back to the NL.  But this isn't about Paul Byrd, is it?

Is it?  No.

So what about Randy Wolf? Just glancing through the stats it's a bag with more bad than good.  He hasn't been above average since 2004.  That was also the last year he put in more than 20 starts before last year, but last year he had a full year and pitched 190 innings.  He was awful on the road last year (5.76 ERA, opponents AVG .283 / .359 / .463) which means he pitched well at home but that doesn't tell us much.  His homes consisted of probably the best and worst pitchers parks in the league (Petco and Minute Maid) and he pitched well in both. He also finished strong with a 2.23 ERA in September.  He's an "old" 32 (will turn 33 mid August) but that's not into a worrisome age yet.  He generally is a good bet to get through 6 and a healthy Wolf would probably get into the 7th about half the time. (did it no less than 11 out of 33 times last year).  

What do the secondary stats tell us?  Nothing definitive.His K/9 was allright (7.66) and is pretty much in line with what you'd expect from him but not to the point he can win by just blowing people away.  His BB/9 rate is not good (3.36) but not to the point he's going to walk himself out of many games. He gives up the occasional homer, but not too many.  His FIP (4.17) suggest that with a great defense behind him he could be above average but then again his biggest problem is that he gets hit relatively hard (LD% 22.5) and has been for the past few years.  But then why was he not killed at Minute Maid?  Agh, too confusing.

Basically this is a long-winded way of saying Wolf seems pretty average and if he's healthy 200 IP of average baseball is worth something.  He could go either way.  If 2003 was a fluke and it was injuries that have held him back the past few years, then with 2008 as a year to get back into the swing of things he could be a very effective pitcher in 2009.  If instead he's been made the type of pitcher he's shown the past few years through injury and time, then he's really just one slip up in stats (a few more walks or HRs, a few less Ks, a few more hits) from being awful.

What do I think? It comes down to money and the numbers aren't good.  He'd like a 3 year, 30 million dollar deal, and didn't bite immediately on a 22-24 million dollar one. (here - all the way at the bottom).   That would be paying Wolf as something he's not, which is close to a sure thing.   Given that history of injury, Wolf would be a great bargain but is a lousy player to rely on. At 10 million a year (or more) that's what you would be doing, relying on Randy to solidify your rotation.  I'd rather the Nats bargain hunt than pay top dollar for this guy.