Dissecting Billy Beane's grand scheme

November 12, 2008

Dissecting Billy Beane's grand scheme

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By Alan Smodic

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Billy Beane's parking spot -- pursuethepassion/flickr.com

When I first heard that the Oakland Athletics had traded for Colorado's Matt Holliday, of course my first question was who did they have to give up?

When I found out the three players -- Carlos Gonzalez, Greg Smith and Houston Street -- I thought, 'wow'. Indeed, Billy Beane has done it again.

In terms of those players, I'm in full agreement with Brandon H's assessment here. And even more so with this comment of his:

"I like Gonzalez. I think he is a fine young player and will be a very strong player in Colorado. I do not think he has the type of tools you can build around, and subsequently is more Mike Cameron then Grady Sizemore. Again fine, but never a player you refuse to move for a first round draft pick.

"Smith is a useless chip in this deal. Beane would have given up 20 Smith's if thats what it took to make this deal, and he is completely justified in such. He's a mediocre inning eating pitcher. While he may stick in the bigs for a while, we're not talking a player who has much value. Consider that he would have a tough time cracking the A's rotation this year if they give Cahill a legitimate shot at the rotation.

"Street, again, not worth much. The market on closers is very weak. Look what the Nats got for Rauch (a better closer), the Diamondbacks for Valverde (a better closer), and the Astros for Lidge (a better closer). The fact is, the Rockies saw that two high draft picks were worth more then prospects for Fuentes (a better closer)."

Again, I agree with every word. Very nicely put, Brandon. And with that being said, this deal works for the future of the A's in many ways -- even if Holliday ends up playing only four months with the team.

The Athletics are a team that needs a few pieces to compete for a division title. They're biggest need? Offense. The A's had only three players hit double-digit home runs in 2008, including 13 and 12 out of Emil Brown and Mark Ellis, respectively.

Jack Cust (yes, Jack Cust) led the team in home runs, runs batted in and runs scored.

The team featured youth all over the field. Daric Barton, Ryan Sweeney and Kurt Suzuki all saw their first full years on the big league squad. It's not a reach to figure that each should improve over the course of next season.

But what the offense severely lacked is an impact bat (or two) to surround these guys during their growth from prospect status. Matt Holliday provides that -- an impact bat in the lineup, a mentor (for lack of a better term) for these guys to emulate and learn from.

But I also don't think Holliday alone gets the full job done, meaning I believe that Beane will make another splash. More bats are still out there and his youthful team needs them. I'm expecting another bat at some point to make the move to Oakland -- don't ask me how, or who, I'm just not going to be surprised.

It's for this reason, too: Beane has an up-and-coming staff. Throughout the past couple years, he's traded for and drafted top-shelf arms. His system is littered with them -- Gio Gonzalez (from the White Sox in Swisher trade), Brett Anderson (from the Dbacks in Haren trade), Trevor Cahill (2nd rd pick in '06), Josh Outman (from the Phillies in Blanton trade), James Simmons (1st rd pick in '07).

Those names don't include Justin Duchscherer or Sean Gallagher, who are already penciled into the 2009 rotation.

What the limited success in '08 of a Dana Eveland or a Greg Smith has shown Beane is that if you hit spots with some consistency, then the defense and Oakland's pitcher's ballpark can go a long way. And it's no secret that it's much easier to hit spots and be a better pitcher when you have confidence in yourself and the team.

With a better offense behind it, the young staff won't have the mentality that it has to go out and be perfect every time on the mound. A couple of impact bats like Holliday will provide it the luxury of knowing its offense will produce runs and help them out.

Those types of thoughts can do more than you think. And if the A's are putting their future in a warehouse of arms, the offense will need to hold up its end of the bargain. Holliday is that first step.

And like I said, I believe Bean's got more planned.

Besides, if it all fails in the first half of the season, look who's holding the best chips at the trade deadline.

Tags: Billy Beane, MLB, Oakland Athletics