MVN Top-30 MLB Prospect Rankings

November 22, 2008

MVN Top-30 MLB Prospect Rankings

14 Comments

By EJ Fagan

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As promised, here is the list:

Matt Wieters - C, Orioles - Like Soto, but better at everything.
David Price - LHP, Rays - A great prospect, but Wieters edges him. The Rays won't complain.
Matt LaPorta - LF/1b, Indians - I love him more than most. Think about Carlos Lee.
Rick Porcello - RHP, Tigers - He got that MLB Contract out of HS for a reason.
Jason Heyward - OF, Braves - Another genius pick up from the Braves.
Colby Rasmus - CF, Cardinals - His 2008 wasn't great, but he retains Bobby Abreu-like skills.
Madison Bumgarner - LHP, Giants - 154/21 K/BB ratio in 134 2/3 innings... and a lefty.
Trevor Cahill - RHP, A's - A young Brandon Webb, but with much better control.
Cameron Maybin - CF, Marlins - Started to cut back on Ks in 2008, and stepped everything else
Pedro Alvarez - 3b, Pirates - Contract drama included, I'll take him over Beckham every time.
Tim Beckham - SS, Rays - Totally not fair for the Rays to get to pick him this year.
Jarrod Parker - RHP, Diamondbacks - 97 mph fastball + 9.00 K/9 + 2.53 K/9 = Ace
Josh Vitters - 3b, Cubs - Stumbled with the wooden bat adjustment, but hit .324/.361/.494 in 08
Dexter Fowler - OF, Rockies - An instant Matt Holliday clone
Mike Moustakas - Inf, Royals - 22 HR at 19 years old
Matt Dominguez - 3b, Marlins - Think about a healthy Eric Chavez
Neftali Feliz - RHP, Rangers - Maybe the best stuff in the minors
Buster Posey - C, Giants - Looked great in Hawaii
Eric Hosmer - 1b, Royals - Huge power, with other tools well-rounded
Andrew McCutchen - CF, Pirates - Still waiting for the power, but everything else is there.
Jordan Zimmerman - RHP, Nationals - Easily the fastest riser of the 2007 Draft Class
Mike Stanton - RF, Marlins - Came out of no where to hit .293/.381/.611 with 39 HRs. 150+ K are alarming, but he's got time to cut them down.
Angel Villalona - 3b, Giants - Held his own at 17 in a full-season league.
Travis Snider - OF, Jays - .301/.338/.466 in limited MLB action at 20 years old.
Brett Anderson - LHP, A's - Way underrated, 20 year old LHP with a 118/27 K/BB ratio in 105 innings.
Chris Tillman - RHP, Orioles - A little wild, but strikes people out like its no one's business.
Jesus Montero - C, Yankees - I'm a huge believer. If he sticks at catcher, he could be Mike Piazza.
Lars Anderson - 1b, Red Sox - He just keeps getting on base at strong rates, and is finally showing a bit more power.
Jhoulys Chacin - RHP, Rockies - He's absurdly efficient, pitching 177 innings in 28 starts
Ben Revere- CF, Twins - I criticized them for what I considered an overdraft in 2007. He hit .378 in 373 PA in 2008. While some of that is luck, its also pretty hard to ignore.

So, there is my list. Some of you will likely disagree with me. That's great! I'd love to hear it. I'll deal with why I ranked each individual where I did when I get to their prospect profiles. A few words though:

I recognize that I may be swinging at a curveball on Montero and Stanton. Both have incredibly high ceilings and reasonable chances at making it to that potential. I may be taking a risk on them, but both are plausible #1 prospects by this time next year. On a similar note, I do not think that I am overreaching on Cahill, LaPorta, or Zimmerman. All are not only very solid bets to reach their potential, but have very good ceilings.

Who's missing? The biggest name that might get a top-30 rating from other publications is probably J.P. Arencibia. He just doesn't take any where near enough walks for me, and that stands true even if he's a catcher.

Tags: Milb, MLB, Prospects, Rankings

Discussion

14 Comments on "MVN Top-30 MLB Prospect Rankings"

Posted by VOIII, November 23, 2008 12:47 PM

If Lars Anderson is so promising...Why all the lusting for Teixeira by the Sox? Why give Tex 6 or 7 years when Lars could be taking over for Youk...middle of next season? They would be better off with a high end SP...

Posted by Jared, November 23, 2008 2:46 PM

fyi - moustakas is in the Royals farm system, not the Rays.

Posted by EJ Fagan, November 23, 2008 3:13 PM

My bad Jared - did this while very tired.

VOIII - We really only have one journalist claiming that the Sox are after Teixeira, so I'm not sure that your premise is accurate. Still, Anderson is very good, but best case scenario he's still no Teixeira.

Posted by Andrew, November 23, 2008 8:57 PM

where the HELL is Tommy Hanson on this list???

Posted by Evan in reply to comment from VOIII, November 23, 2008 9:56 PM

Exactly, Voii.

EJ, 2 journalists now.

Posted by JD, November 24, 2008 12:59 PM

Wow...horrible list.

LaPorta - ranked way too high. Fringe range and arm in left, hit 233/299/350 after being traded.

Rasmus - like the vince young of minor league baseball with daddy interfering in his professional career.

Parker - I like him, but like most HS pitchers, he doesn't pitch at the same velo as he did when coming out of HS. He may hit 97, but sits low-90's.

Fowler - I like Fowler, but the Holliday comp is way off dude. Fowler is an amazing athlete, and can play center, which increases his value a lot. Holliday is not, but has a way better bat than Fowler. Don't see the comp.

Can't even comment on the rest of the post b/c it's a joke.

Posted by JD, November 24, 2008 1:01 PM

Agree that Hanson is a glaring omission

Posted by EJ Fagan, November 24, 2008 3:39 PM

Tommy Hanson was actually #31 when I ranked everyone that I was considering. He got pushed down a bit due to below average control (3.3 BB/9 - notice that pitchers on my list are slanted toward control, which is a lesson learned from the Homer Baily control excuses saga)

JD - So, I've been a big LaPorta fan since before the draft. I don't deny that he's a poor glove wherever he plays, but the Indians kept him in left even though he's no longer blocked at 1st, so they at least think that he'll stick there. A bad defensive left field is still significantly more valuable than an average 1st baseman.

He played 17 games after the trade, which has about as much statistical significance as Jacoby Ellsbury's .353 batting average in 2007. The Eastern League played as a pitchers league this year, and LaPorta managed to hit .288/.402/.576 in 84 games, just half a season after exited the NCAA. He's shown tons of power in the minors, and improved both his strikeout and walk rates since entering the minors. I think that a Carlos Lee comparison with a fairly strong reliability factor is sound.

On Parker - You're right that he's not flashing 97s every time a scout with a radar gun shows up to his high school games, but neither do many pitchers in the majors. Parker is sitting at 93-94 and turning it up when needed. The real reason that he's impressed me is control - he had the reputation of being a raw arm at the draft, and his K/BB ratio is pretty darn impressive so soon after.

Fowler - Holliday, like Fowler, didn't fill out his frame and start hitting for big power until he made the major leagues. I'd also like to caution that Holliday's power is also partially a product of his home ballpark. They've both got great defensive skills, hit for high average, and knock in plenty of runs. Its important to recognize that Fowler is still really lanky and has tons of power potential. He's actually a much better prospect than Holliday was.

On Rasmus' father - while I don't disagree with you that his father probably should back away, it is important to remember that his father (a minor leaguer himself) coached Rasmus for like 15 years. Its hard to break that tie. Maybe a bad season will convince him to let the Cards work their magic.

I got a lot of criticism for disparaging Delmon Young's status as a top prospect years ago, mostly because I place certain rules upon myself when ranking prospects. After rationalizing some excuses for Homer Baily, I try to stick to my rules much more now. Hanson was one of those casualties.

Posted by D'Andre Williams, November 24, 2008 6:51 PM

How can Tommy Hanson be left off the list??? That really doesn't make any sense to me at all!

#10

Posted by Money Mike, November 26, 2008 8:41 AM

EJ,

Do you see Yankee pitching prospects like Manny Banuelos, Christian Garcia, Andrew Brackman or Dellin Betances making his list next year? And what about Austin Romine, he seems likely (if the Yankees keep him) to be the catcher of the future more than Montero who is destined for 1B. I am not saying Romine deserves to be on this list at all considering he only played A Ball last year. Just would like your thoughts.

#11

Posted by Money Mike, November 26, 2008 8:42 AM

EJ,

#12

Posted by Jake, November 26, 2008 4:38 PM

No way Villalona over Lars Anderson. Also, where's Justin Smoak, Yonder Alonso, Logan Morrison, and Brett Wallace? Those are some true mashers. Also missing Wade Davis and personally think Jake Arrieta and Tim Alderson should have been considered. Dominguez is ridiculously too high, he's known more for his glove than his bat. Vitters over Moustakas when Vitters couldn't handle the same league that Moose led in homers? That's just a wave and a miss, strike three on that one. I'd personally rank Cahill over Bumgarner because Cahill's had success at a higher level, but can't really argue with that after the season Bumgarner had. Jordan Zimmerman doesn't belong anywhere close to this list.

#13

Posted by Jaybird, December 14, 2008 12:42 PM

Great List. I think Cahill should be #1 however. Its been A long time since A pitcher with brains, and control has been introduced to our beloved game, ( Mr Greg Maddox For Example). Look for great things from this young intelligent young man in the future. As for the rest of your list I was surprised to not see more pitchers in the top 5 ( Zimmerman, Bumgarner, Feliz, Anderson, Parker) This may well be the best group of young hurlers we have seen in A long time. Thanks for the insight as usual.
Jay

#14

Posted by John, December 14, 2008 1:13 PM

Derek Holland???