MVN: Most Valuable Network

A lot of attention has been paid to speculation about the big name free agents: Manny Ramirez, C.C. Sabathia, and Mark Teixeira. While they are surely important players, I'm amazed at how little ink we've seen regarding two very attractive but lesser free agents in Ben Sheets and Adam Dunn.

Both have their flaws, but also their upside. In Sheet's case, the flaw is injury. He's been chronically unable to stay healthy over the past few seasons, and finished his spectacular 2008 campaign on the shelf with a minor elbow injury. He should be ready for spring training, but he obviously brings a lot of uncertainty.

Sheets is unlikely to be able to command a major long term commitment. No team expects his body to hold consistently over 4 or 5 years. That said, he's also an excellent gamble: Sheets is an ace when healthy. It seems to be like we have a good opportunity for a team with some loose cash and need for an ace to put themselves over the top. As far as I can tell, those teams include the Red Sox, Angels, Yankees, Blue Jays, and Texas Rangers in the American League, and Atlanta Braves in the National League.

Of those teams, I like the Atlanta Braves the best. The Braves have a ton of money to spend this offseason, and their lean roster can afford to take a good gamble. Sheets certainly is a good gamble to take - the payoff is both plausible and large. Sheets would join Hudson and Jurrjens to form a very strong 1-2-3, and they have the offense to help them contend. The Braves have the pieces to potentially stand with the Phillies and Mets in 2009, but need to improve their pitching behind Hudson and Jurrjens. They could splurge on Derek Lowe and C.C. Sabathia, but their disposable cash might be better spent on a high-risk, high-reward gamble.

I think that he also makes sense for the pitching-starved Texas Rangers. The Rangers have shown that they have the budget to spend when necessary, and have finally leveraged their ballpark to become the AL's best offense. What remains is finding effective pitching, something that they have been abyssmal at doing lately. Sheets is a ready-made ace if he comes to Texas - a roll of the dice that they will have to make to get out of the rut that they are in.

Adam Dunn is a little more of a known quanitity. He had a bit of a down year in 2008, hitting .236/.373/.528 with an OPS+ of 129 between the Reds and Diamondbacks.  Still, career average is 130 OBP, and he has hit 40 or more home runs for 5 straight years, and his reduced line drive rate, .243 BABIP with the Reds, and dramatically low 15.6% HR/F rate with Arizona point toward a lot of bad luck. I think that Dunn is a clear buy semi-low candidate.

Who could use him? He doesn't seem to be excessively expensive, and could hit 200+ home runs for a team over the course of a 6 year deal. I think that Dunn, whose defense is horrible, would also benefit from some time at the desginated hitter spot.

Now, they probably will resist it, but it seems to me that this is the perfect opportunity for the Oakland Athletics to make a move. We all know that they are one of the few teams that correctly values Dunn's strikeout-heavy talents, and they were dead last in offense last season. The 40 home runs will be useful, and he'll make an entertaining couple with Jack Cust.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are an interesting choice. Before Manny started tearing the AL West up, they had major problems finding power. When he leaves, that will become an issue again. Dunn fills the role, and does it for less expense. The Dodgers have a strangely constructed roster, but they also have the money to be a buyer this year.

Having said all of this, the Toronto Blue Jays are probably my favorite team to land Dunn. They have a surplus budget to spend, plenty of pitching, and really could use the offense. Like the A's, they were impotent in 2008 at the plate, but have the pitching to be contenders with a few more runs. They won 86 games despite working through injuries to Vernon Wells and Aaron Hill. I think that Dunn is the perfect player for them, and is a good bet to contribute for the next 3-4 years. While they have a lot of OF/DH types, they don't have too many sure bets for good production out there. Dunn offers stability.