MVN: Most Valuable Network

With the Big Ten's football season in the books and only bowl games left to play, it's time to turn our attention towards the hardwood.  Big Ten basketball tends to resemble Big Ten football in a lot of ways -- hard fought defensive battles, low-scoring games, every team beating each other up, and generally looked down upon by most of the country.  Hey, it may not be flashy like the ACC or Big East, but you can't argue with results -- Wisconsin is one of only a handful of teams in the country to win 30 games in each of the past two seasons, Tom Izzo has taken Michigan State to four Final Fours in his career, and it wasn't long ago that Ohio State and Illinois were contending for national titles.

Last year, Purdue snuck up on everyone to become a contender for the Big Ten title.  They came up short in the end, but they won't be sneaking up on anyone this year -- many expect the Boilermakers to contend for (if not win) the Big Ten title and make a deep run into March.   Traditional powers Michigan State and Wisconsin may have something to say about that, however, and don't be surprised if Thad Matta's crew in Columbus is ready to contend once again.

Here is how I see things playing out this year:

1. Michigan State
2007-08: 27-9, Sweet Sixteen.  Led by Drew Neitzel, the Spartans were early favorites in the Big Ten.  As the season wore on, though, they developed a bad habit of playing down to their opponent, and got upset a couple times by teams they should have beaten easily (Iowa, Penn State).  After storming out to a 20-3 start, the Spartans struggled down the stretch to a 24-7 record before rebounding in March to make it to the Sweet 16 before getting knocked out by Memphis.  Once again, Tom Izzo's teams struggled to beat Wisconsin, losing in Madison by 15 points and suffering a heart-breaking two-point loss in the semifinals of the Big Ten tournament. 

Notable Losses:  Neitzel is gone after being the face of Michigan State basketball for most of his collegiate career.  How the Spartans fare this year is largely dependent on how well they can replace Neitzel's production.  While he never put up incredible averages (13.9 PPG, 4.0 APG), there wasn't a more dangerous player on the floor in crunch time. 

Notable Returns:  Most of last season's other impact players are coming back this year, which is why they have to be one of the favorites to win the conference this year.  One of those players is Raymar Morgan, who comes into the season as one of the leading candidates for Player of the Year honors.  Morgan burst onto the scene last year as a sophomore, averaging 14 point and 6.1 rebounds per game.  Sophomores Kalin Lucas and Chris Allen should anchor a relatively young backcourt, while experienced role players like senior Goran Suton man the frontcourt.

New Faces:  Tom Izzo has proven himself as a good recruiter, being able to take his pick of players from Michigan while also plucking talent away from surrounding states.  That's the case again with this year's recruiting class -- forwards Austin Thornton and Draymond Green are homegrown players (from Sand Lake and Saginaw, respectively) while Delvon Roe (5-star recruit from Lakewood, OH) and Korie Lucious (4-star from Milwaukee, WI) were recruited out of the backyards of Big Ten rivals.

Outlook:  You know what to expect with an Izzo team by now.  Around 25 wins, a top two or three finish in the Big Ten, a strong showing in the Big Ten tournament, and an appearance in the second week of the NCAA tournament.  Izzo has never been afraid to face stiff competition in his non-conference schedule, either -- this year, the Spartans have early season showdowns with North Carolina as part of the Big Ten/ACC Challenge and a road trip to Texas as the second part of a home-and-home series, as well as a January showdown with defending champion Kansas.  This Spartans team will be battle-tested by March and ready to make another deep run in the Big Dance.

2. Purdue
2007-08: 25-9, Round of 32.  Led by freshmen Robbie Hummel and E'Twaun Moore and sophomore Keaton Grant, the Baby Boilers burst onto the Big Ten scene last season with an 11-game conference win streak that resulted in a 12-1 start.  They stumbled a bit down the stretch (including an upset loss to Illinois in the Big Ten tournament), but managed to secure a #6 seed in the NCAA Tournament and win their 10th straight first-round game before losing in the second round to Xavier.

Notable Losses:  Last year's Boilers were so young that the only players gone from the program are role players.  A year of experience and another batch of recruits could make Purdue an even more dangerous team this year.

Notable Returns:  Hummel and Moore are back for their sophomore years, while Grant returns for his junior season.  Hummel was the preseason pick for Player of the Year at Media Day this year, but considering Purdue's balanced offensive attack, it wouldn't be a surprise if Moore or Grant also stepped into that discussion.

New Faces:  Guards Lewis Jackson, Ryne Smith, and John Hart are the newest Baby Boilers, but don't figure to have a large impact this year.  Jackson has played in all 6 games so far this year, averaging 4.3 PPG and 3.8 APG.

Outlook:  Should be another 25-win season for Matt Painter and the Boilermakers.  Who knew that Purdue would return to Big Ten prominence so soon after Gene Keady's retirement?  Painter has proven himself to be one of the best young coaches in the country, and it looks as though the program is ready to take the next step.  Don't be surprised if they make it as far as the Elite Eight this year, but a Sweet 16 bid is more likely.

3. Wisconsin
2007-08: 31-5, Sweet Sixteen.  Bo Ryan did it again, taking a team that was picked to finish in the middle of the pack without Alando Tucker and elevating them to a Big Ten title.  Following early-season losses to Duke and Marquette, the Badgers nearly ran the table in the Big Ten, losing only to Purdue (and losing to them twice).  The Badgers earned a #3 seed in the NCAA Tournament and easily dismissed Cal State Fullerton and Kansas State before falling victim to Stephen Curry and Davidson in the Sweet Sixteen. 

Notable Losses:  Brian Butch may have been a disappointment as far as never playing like a McDonald's All-American (few remember he was heavily pursued by North Carolina), but by his senior year, he had developed into the team's leader.  They'll miss his presence defensively, as well has his ability to step out and make a jump shot and the occasional three-pointer -- a must-have in Bo Ryan's offense.  Defensive specialist Michael Flowers also graduated, which could have a bigger effect on the Badgers than most realize.

Notable Returns:  Marcus Landry may never duplicate the success of big brother Carl, but you can't say he hasn't had a solid collegiate career in Madison.  Landry was a preseason first team All-Big ten pick and, along with Trevon Hughes, will shoulder much of the offensive load this year. 

New Faces:  Without Butch and Greg Stiemsma, one would think that Wisconsin is running dangerously low on goofy looking white guys.  Not the case -- Jared Berggren (6'10") and Ian Markolf (7'0") join the team as new recruits this year, but are likely looking at redshirts this season, as is usually the case with Bo Ryan's big men.

Outlook:  It's always tricky to guess how the Badgers will finish.  Every year it seems like they struggle to beat even the most pedestrian opponents, but by the end of the year they always seem to end up with 25+ wins and either a regular season or conference tournament title.  Even if the roster doesn't look special compared to Michigan State and Purdue, you just know that Bo Ryan will find a way to get his team into the NCAA Tournament again (while continuing to find ways to beat Michigan State and giving fans at the Kohl Center more reason to use the "Bo Owns Izzo" chant).

4. Ohio State
2007-08: 24-13, NIT Champions.  After an appearance in the National Championship game courtesy of Greg Oden, the Buckeyes understandably took a step back last season with the expected departure of the big man.  Thad Matta's strong recruiting paid off down the stretch, however, as the Buckeyes were able to get into the NIT.  Once there, OSU steamrolled their way into the finals at Madison Square Garden, where they knocked off UMass, 92-85.

Notable Losses:  The Buckeyes saw yet another one-and-done center leave town after last season, when Kosta Koufos inexplicably declared after his freshman year (and was even more inexplicably taken in the first round).  Koufos was their second-leading scorer last season, and they also lost their top leading scorer in Jamar Butler (15.0 PPG, 5.9 APG).

Notable Returns:  Sophomore Evan Turner is probably the most notable returning player for the Buckeyes this year, averaging 12 PPG and 7.7 RPG in their first three games this season after averaging 8.5 and 4.4 his freshman year. 

New Faces: After two straight one-and-dones at the center spot, it looks like Thad Matta may have a third one on his hands with B.J. Mullens, the 7-footer from Columbus that topped most recruiting rankings this year.  Still, Mullens may not even be the most impressive player that Matta landed in a Top-5 recruiting class -- that could be guard William Buford, a five-star recruit from Toledo.  Among Matta's other impressive signings are 4-star guard Walter Offutt and JuCo transfer Jeremie Simmons. 

Outlook:  The Buckeyes are certainly a young team, but thanks to Matta's recruiting ability they're also one of the most talented -- it's not every year that you land two players who were ranked in the top five of their position.  Ohio State may push the top three of Michigan State, Purdue, and Wisconsin, but unless they can put together an upset or two over those teams, they'll probably settle into 4th place in the conference and earn an at-large bid into the NCAA Tournament.

5. Minnesota
2007-08:  20-14, NIT First Round.  Tubby Smith turned around a team that went 9-22 in 2006 and led them to a postseason appearance in his first year -- for all the flak he caught at Kentucky, the coaching job speaks for itself.  Even though they lost to Maryland in the first round of the NIT, you'd be hard pressed to find anyone who would say it wasn't a successful season.

Notable Losses:  Last year's leading scorer Lawrence McKenzie graduated after averaging 11.8 PPG and shooting nearly 43% from beyond the arc.  Forward Dan Coleman, a solid post presence for Smith last season (11.6 PPG, 5.8 RPG), is also gone.

Notable Returns:  Lawrence Westbrook and Blake Hoffarber are the returning scorers from last year's team, averaging 8.5 and 8.4 PPG, respectively.  Hoffarber is likely most remembered for being the kid who won the Minnesota State Championship in high school by making a shot while sliding on the floor as time expired, and he repeated that magic again last year with a last-second buzzer beater in the Big Ten tournament. 

New Faces:  Smith has lured his first big name to the Twin Cities, signing 6'11" Ralph Sampson III out of Georgia.  Sampson was weighing offers from schools like Georgia Tech, Kentucky, and Maryland, but instead decided to head North.  Kentucky fans may not have been happy with Smith's recruiting there, but you can bet Gopher fans are thrilled that he's able to draw in players like Sampson, who otherwise would have never considered Minnesota.

Outlook:  Slowly but surely, the Gophers are starting to crawl their way back to relevance.  They're a good bet for 20 wins again this season, but with a weak non-conference schedule, they'll probably need a strong performance in-conference to make the NCAA Tournament as an at-large team. 

6. Illinois
2007-08: 16-19, no postseason.  The Illini slumped through a disappointing regular season, but surged in the Big Ten tournament, making an improbable run to the conference final before getting blown out by Wisconsin.  With a losing record, Illinois failed to make the NCAA Tournament for the first time in nine years.

Notable Losses: Forward/center Shaun Pruitt, last year's leading scorer and rebounder, graduated along with forward Brian Randle, leaving a pretty big hole in the Illini's frontcourt.  Guard Jamar Smith was kicked off the team in August for failing to live up to a promise to coach Bruce Weber that he would quit drinking following a February 2007 drunk driving accident that nearly killed teammate Brian Carlwell.  Smith, who likely would have been Illinois' best player this season, transferred to Southern Indiana in September.

Notable Returns: Illinois has become known for excellent guard play, and sophomore Demetri McCamey is the next in line.  Drawing comparisons to former Illini great Deron Williams, McCamey averaged 8.2 points and 3.3 assists per game last season as a freshman.  Guard Trent Meacham also figures to play a large part in the offense with a deadly accurate touch from beyond the arc.  Michael Jordan's son, Jeff, should see more minutes this year than he did as a freshman, but it doesn't seem as though he'll be much of a contributor as a sophomore, either.

New Faces: Sophomore Alex Legion, a former top recruit of Kentucky, will become eligible at the end of the fall semester.  The 6'5" guard/forward will be the first of many big-name recruits to hit Champaign in the next few years -- the Illini may be down right now, but they won't be for long.  I'm going out on a limb right now and saying Illinois will have a Final Four-caliber team in 2010, assuming everyone stays in school for a couple years.

Outlook: This year, not so good.  Things won't be as bad as last year, though, when the Illini set a school record for losses (19).  The talent is there, but the experience isn't, and that could be a problem against more experienced teams like Wisconsin and Michigan State.

7. Michigan
2007-08: 10-22, no postseason.  As usual, it wasn't a great year for Michigan hoops.  Half of the Wolverines' wins came in-conference, but those wins came in bunches -- they won 4 of the 6 games they played in the month of February.  One of the few bright spots was their first-round win in the Big Ten tournament against Iowa.  That good feeling only lasted a day, as they were blown out by eventual champion Wisconsin, 51-34.

Notable Losses: No big losses from last year's team -- Ekpe Udoh (6.0 PPG, 5.0 RPG), Ron Coleman (4.8 PPG, 3.2 RPG), and Jerret Smith (4.0 PPG, 2.0 RPG) are gone, but like last year, this season's Michigan team will be on the younger side.

Notable Returns:  The stars from last year's team -- Manny Harris (16.1 PPG, 4.2 RPG, 2.7 APG) and DeShawn Sims (12.3 PPG, 5.4 RPG) -- are back and already playing at the level they were at last year, leading the Wolverines to an early-season upset of UCLA.

New Faces:  John Beilein continues his rebuilding job with a large freshman class this year -- there are six first-year players on his roster this season.  Four of of the six are guards: Zack Novak, Stu Douglass, Corey Person, and Laval Lucas-Perry.  The other two -- Eric Puls and Ben Cronic -- are centers.  Of that group, Douglass and Novak have seen the most minutes per game.

Outlook:  With some luck, the Wolverines could sneak their way into the top half of the conference.  It's going to take awhile for Beilein to turn around this program like he turned around West Virginia, but his teams have shown fight early on in his tenure already.

8. Penn State
2007-08: 15-16, no postseason.  After a 10-4 start, including a road win at Illinois, the season quickly went downhill.  The Nittany Lions finished the regular season at 15-15, and lost their first round game in the Big Ten tournament to Illinois on a last-second lay-up.  Injuries to Geary Claxton and Jamelle Cornley derailed what had looked like a promising season in Happy Valley.

Notable Losses:  Claxton is gone after being PSU's biggest scoring threat his entire career.  The Nittany Lions had to play without him for much of last season due to injury, and their play suffered as a result.  A similar slump could occur with him no longer in the picture. 

Notable Returns:  While Claxton is gone, Cornley returns for his senior season.  Guards Stanley Pringle and Talor Battle also return, and the trio has proven to be a high-scoring bunch early this year -- in Penn State's first 7 games (granted, against some very weak opponents), they've averaged a combined 49.3 points per game.

New Faces:  Guards Chris Babb and Cammeron Woodyard are the two freshmen that have seen minutes so far this year, but neither look like they're going to contribute much this season with guard play already being a strength for the Nittany Lions.

Outlook:  They may pull a few upsets this year, but the Nittany Lions just don't have the same amount of talent as some other teams in the conference.  Postseason play is unlikely once again, but not impossible.

9. Northwestern
2007-08: 8-22, no postseason.  It was a pretty pathetic year all around for the Wildcats -- they lost 14 straight conference games before finally beating Michigan (by two points), and their seven non-conference wins came against teams like Benedictine, Savannah State, Arkansas State, and Texas Pan-American.  Their season came to a merciful end with a first-round exit in the Big Ten tournament at the hands of Minnesota, their third straight first round exit in the tournament.

Notable Losses:  If there's good news for the Wildcats this year, it's that they don't have to worry about losing any of last year's key players.  The biggest lost is guard Jason Okrzesik, who graduated after scoring 6.2 PPG last season.

Notable Returns:  Point guard Michael Thompson quietly had a very good freshman year last year, averaging 11.6 PPG and 4.3 APG, but also looked extremely green at times.  Northwestern also returns their top two scorers from last season -- forward Kevin Coble (15.9 PPG) and guard Craig Moore (13.4 PPG). 

New Faces:  The Wildcats signed a number of mid-level recruits in the offseason, but the only one that has had much of an impact early this year is forward John Shurna, who's averaging 8.3 PPG thanks in large part to a 17-point outburst against Texas A&M-Corpus Christi.

Outlook:  It certainly doesn't look good (again).  They can take solace in the fact that young guys like Thompson are bound to improve this season, and there's going to be at least a team or two finishing below them in the standings.  They'll still pretty much be a bye in the Big Ten tournament, but maybe Thompson & Co. can change that one day.

10. Iowa
2007-08: 13-19, no postseason.  The Hawkeyes struggled to get going all year, and while they did manage to upset Michigan State in mid-January, the majority of their conference wins were against the bottom of the Big Ten barrel.  Any hopes of a Cinderella run in the Big Ten tournament were dashed with a first round exit at the hands of Michigan.

Notable Losses:  Last year's leading scorer, Tony Freeman, transferred to Southern Illinois because he thought Iowa coach Todd Lickiter "didn't value his talent", which apparently consists of a 37% field goal percentage and a 1/1 assist/turnover ratio.  Second-leading scorer Justin Johnson is also gone following graduation.

Notable Returns:  Cyrus Tate is the returning leading scorer from last year's team, averaging 8 points a game last year. 

New Faces: Anthony Tucker has burst onto the scene early this year, averaging 16 points a game in the Hawkeyes' first five games, but his game so far has consisted of jacking up three pointers (he connected on 7 of 11 three point attempts recently against The Citadel, taking only two shots all game that weren't threes). 

Outlook: It looks like they'll have another "blah" kind of team again this year.  Tucker may be fun to watch as the year goes on, but there aren't many "must-see" players on this year's team.  They always seem to pull off one or two low-scoring upsets every year, but they're probably not following too closely until that happens.

11. Indiana
2007-08: 25-8, lost in 1st round of NCAA Tournament to Arkansas.  Fueled by the duo of D.J. White and superfreshman Eric Gordon, the Hoosiers got off to a 17-1 start before Kelvin Sampson got into a bit of trouble.  Perhaps distracted by the off-court issues and mid-season firing of Sampson, the Hoosiers collapsed down the stretch and had a disappointing first round exit in the NCAA Tournament.

Notable Losses: Pretty much everyone of value.  Eric Gordon was one-and-done, but most people saw that coming.  D.J. White ended an impressive collegiate career by being named Big Ten Player of the Year.  DeAndre Thomas, Jamarcus Ellis, and Armon Bassett were all kicked off the team by new coach Tom Crean days after he was hired.  Brandon McGee was dismissed later in the month.  Jordan Crawford capped off the exodus by transferring in early June.

Notable Returns:  Nobody.  I'm sure Kyle Taber is a nice guy, but I wouldn't call him notable, and he's the only scholarship player returning from last year's team.

New Faces:  The entire roster.

Outlook:  Already this season, they barely managed to beat IUPUI by 3 points, then proceeded to get destroyed by Notre Dame and Saint Joseph's.  While Crean is a good enough coach that the Hoosiers could pull off an upset or two this year in the Big Ten, they'll be fighting to stay out of the basement for most of the season.  Give Crean and his tendency to recruit the Chicago area well some time, though, and the Hoosiers should be atop the Big Ten again in a couple years.

Player of the Year: Raymar Morgan, Michigan State
Rookie of the Year: William Buford, Ohio State