December 29, 2008
Fantasy Baseball 2009: Oakland A's Outfielder Matt Holliday
Matt Holliday - MolsonPhotography/Flickr.com
The Oakland A's acquired OF Matt Holliday from the Colorado Rockies in November. Holliday is a free agent after the 2009 season, so the Rockies couldn't afford to risk losing him and getting nothing in return for the three-time All-Star.
Holliday's move west would seem to have a negative impact on his fantasy value, as he will not be playing his home games in the hitter-friendly confines of Coors Field.
A closer examination of Holliday's numbers may disprove that notion. For example, here are his important fantasy numbers for the past three seasons, split Home vs. Road:
2008
Home: In 73 games: .332 BA, .584 SLG, .413 OBP, 15 HR, 59 RBI
Road: In 66 games: .308 BA, .486 SLG, .405 OBP, 10 HR, 29 RBI
2007
Home: In 82 games: .376 BA, .722 SLG, .435 OBP, 25 HR, 82 RBI
Road: In 76 games: .301 BA, .485 SLG, .374 OBP, 11 HR, 55 RBI
2006
Home: In 78 games, .373 BA, .692 SLG, .440 OBP, 22 HR, 78 RBI
Road: In 77 games, .280 BA, .485 SLG, .333 OBP, 12 HR, 36 RBI
Holliday never played in Oakland while with the Rockies, so there is no data to pull anything from there.
Here's an overview of Holliday's last three seasons:
His home/road splits have gotten less dramatic across the board as he has aged, perhaps reflecting a better approach at the plate and also perhaps physical maturation.
Holliday's overall drop-off in 2008 from his terrific 2007 may have been partially due to a hamstring injury suffered in May. He played in 139 games after topping 150 games played the previous two seasons. Injuries to some key players around him, most notably 1B Todd Helton and SS Troy Tulowitski, may have also hampered Holliday's production
Despite the leg injury, Holliday had a career-high 28 stolen bases in 2008. That number reeks of a fluke, since he had never before topped 15 stolen bases in a season.
His batting average at home and on the road has been very good, over .300 five out of six times.
If Oakland can put at least one other solid hitter around Holliday in the lineup, he could have a good season. Don't underestimate the potential for a big payday next winter as motivation for him to do his best to have a big season as well.

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Discussion
1 Comment on "Fantasy Baseball 2009: Oakland A's Outfielder Matt Holliday"
#1
Posted by Jeff Freels, January 3, 2009 8:58 PM
Hey Brad,
You make a good point about how Holliday's splits have gotten less extreme as he has aged. Another thing you might have mentioned was his much improved walk-to-strikeout ratio (BB/K) last season. He showed signs of being a more patient hitter - a quality that will serve him well in Oakland.
Still, as of my writing of this comment, Holliday is being selected 13th overall in mock drafts on Mock Draft Central. That is higher than Teixeira, Berkman or Manny. To me, drafting him that high is crazy considered how much uncertainty there is about his performance this season.
I say let others draft him in the second round this year and use that round's pick on someone with more reliability.





















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