MVN: Most Valuable Network

It is pretty obvious that the entire premise of fantasy sports is predicated on the use of statistics by fans to build teams of their own creation. But fantasy players who limit their base of knowledge to only those statistical categories for which they earn points are doing themselves a grave disservice. This article is intended as a basic primer in the three levels of baseball statistics that can be helpful to fantasy players looking for an edge.

In the coming weeks and months I will be providing a great deal of analysis regarding the fantasy value of many players. Often I will refer back to the statistics in this piece as evidence to bolster my arguments and I felt that it would be a good idea to provide a clear explanation of what all of these stats mean and how I see them. Some in the baseball world are likely to disagree with my interpretation of these categories and I welcome their respectful comments.

I call the first level of baseball statistics the STANDARD STATS and it is populated by your box score and baseball card numbers. These are the most well-known stats and they are the easiest to keep up with -- they also form the basis for fantasy scoring in a majority of leagues. At most, they might involve a minor calculation or two, but many of them are simply counting statistics. Some examples for pitchers include:

• WINS (W) are loathed by many mathematically-minded baseball analysts because they often remain out of the pitcher's control, but they remain a popular way to measure a starting pitcher's relative level of success. From a fantasy standpoint, wins are notoriously difficult to predict and even good pitchers can get cheated out of wins by bad luck or poor run support.
  

• SAVES (Sv) are also disliked by many in the sabermetric community because they feel that it is not necessarily an accurate measure of a relief pitcher's true worth. Still, saves are the most commonly used barometer for pitchers out of the bullpen and it is typically a fantasy scoring category.
  

• ERA stands for Earned Run Average and it is a number that attempts to illustrate how good or bad a pitcher is at preventing runs from scoring (the lower the better). It is calculated by taking a pitcher's earned runs allowed, multiplying it by nine, and dividing that number by his innings pitched (i.e., (ER * 9) / IP). In general, pitchers with low ERAs are better than those with higher ones.
  

• STRIKEOUTS (K) are one of the sexiest stats in all of baseball, perhaps eclipsed only by the home run. A pitcher who strikes out a lot of batters is not allowing those batters to make contact with the ball, thus preventing nasty outcomes like base hits. That is why many high strikeout pitchers, with some exceptions, are usually among the best in the game.
  

• WHIP is a ratio statistic that has only come into common usage in the last 20 years or so. It stands for walks and hits per innings pitched (i.e., (BB + H) / IP) and lower numbers are better. Of all the standard statistics, this one is probably the most effective at indicating the true quality of a pitcher's arsenal. This is due to the fact that pitchers who do not allow many base runners are not likely to allow many runs to score. That means that wins, saves and a low ERA should follow.

The second level of statistic is my favorite and it is related to the first. I call them PERIPHERAL STATS. They vary in origin, but many of them are derived from stats in the first level. Others of them are stats that have not been traditionally kept for whatever reason. Either way, there are a lot of them and they can be useful for different reasons.

Many people would place some of these stats in the category of sabermetric statistics. The argument can certainly be made, but I place them here because I reserve the sabermetric category for numbers derived from hopelessly complex formulas. I joke, but I classify these stats here because their derivation is gleaned only from events on the field of play. For pitchers, they include, but are not limited to:

• STRIKEOUT RATE (K%) is also called strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) and it is calculated by taking a pitcher's strikeout total, multiplying it by nine, and dividing by innings pitched (i.e., (K * 9) / IP). Higher numbers are better, but a strikeout rate below 5.6 is considered poor, while anything above 8.0 is outstanding.
  

• WALK RATE (BB%) is also called walks per nine innings (BB/9) and it is calculated by taking a pitcher's walk total, multiplying it by nine, and dividing by innings pitched (i.e., (BB * 9) / IP). Lower numbers are better, but a walk rate over 3.0 is considered poor, while anything below 2.0 is elite.
  

• STRIKEOUT-TO-WALK RATIO (K/BB) is a number that provides a comparison between how often a pitcher strikes out batters versus how often he allows them a free pass. Many analysts would make the case that there is no more crucial statistic to use when judging pitchers than K/BB. High numbers are better, but a K/BB under 1.0 is awful, over 2.0 is good and over 3.0 is elite.
  

• HOME RUN RATE (HR%) is also called home runs per nine innings (HR/9) and it is calculated much like K% and BB% (i.e., (HR * 9) / IP). A good measure of a pitcher's propensity for giving up home runs, HR% is better when it is a low number. Below 0.75 is excellent, but over 1.20 is terrible.
  

• BATTING AVERAGE AGAINST (BAA) is the batting average of a pitcher's opponents when they have faced him. The opposite of batting average for hitters, this number is better when it is lower. Elite pitchers will allow around .245 or lower, bad pitchers will allow .280 or higher.
  

• BATTING AVERAGE ON BALLS IN PLAY (BABIP) measures the percentage of base hits a pitcher has allowed only on balls that have been put into play and have not left the yard. It is also seen as an indicator of how lucky or unlucky a pitcher is. This may sound weird, but a BABIP for a pitcher is considered good at around .300. There will be a more detailed discussion of this stat in January, but pitcher's with high BABIPs are considered too unlucky, while those with low BABIPs are considered too lucky.
  

• STRAND RATE (LOB%), or left-on-base percentage, describes the proportion of base runners that a pitcher allows to score. The average strand rate is around 75%, but a higher or lower number is sometimes indicative of a lucky or unlucky pitcher. This is another stat that I will discuss in a future post, but elite pitchers will often have a strand rate around 80%.
  

• LINE DRIVE/GROUNDBALL/FLYBALL PERCENTAGE tells us the relative percentage of each kind of batted ball given up by a pitcher (on outs and base hits). These numbers will vary depending on the style of the pitcher in question, but groundball rates over 50 percent, flyball rates under 28 percent and line drive rates under 19 percent are considered very strong.
  

• HOME RUN TO FLYBALL RATIO (HR/FB) is a measure of the percentage of home runs allowed by a pitcher relative to the number of flyballs he has relinquished. A HR/FB of 8 percent or below is excellent, while a HR/FB over 12 percent is considered poor, but this number has to be considered along with the pitcher's flyball rate for accurate analysis.
  

• PITCH EFFICIENCY (P/9) takes the total number of pitches thrown, multiplies that by nine, and divides by innings pitched (i.e., (P * 9) / IP). In other words, if a particular pitcher pitched a complete game in every appearance, P/9 will tell us how many pitches it would take that guy to get through the game. Lower numbers indicate pitchers who are more efficient and less likely to wear down over the course of a season.
  

The third and final level of useful baseball statistics are the SABERMETRIC STATS. Frequently these numbers are complex derivatives of a large body of other, more basic, stats and they are usually detailed attempts to more accurately gauge the true value of players. In fantasy circles they are often used to predict future performance. I classify them separately from the peripheral stats because the formulas used to calculate the sabermetric stats often include numbers contrived by mathematicians that have little to do with events on the field.

Due to the complex and esoteric nature of many of these numbers, I am not the biggest fan of the sabermetric stats (see my critique of sabermetrics from Dec. 10, 2008). They are often only comprehensible by those who calculate them and they can be difficult to penetrate by anyone lacking a mathematics degree. That said, some of them are really cool and do provide some sharp insight into player development and performance.

Pitchers are notoriously difficult to project and pigeonhole, so sabermetricians have developed fewer statistics for them than for batters. Also, because these stats are the invention of really smart dudes with too much time on their hands, there are quite a few of them and they can change without a moment's notice. Here are a couple of the best examples that I sometimes refer to:

• DEFENSE INDEPENDENT PITCHING (DIPS) is also called Fielding Independent Pitching depending on the source. It attempts to measure a pitcher's effectiveness based on plays which are totally under his control (i.e., home runs allowed, strikeouts, walks, etc.). Since a pitcher is forced to rely upon the defenders in the field backing him up, poor defenders can negatively influence the numbers of a pitcher. This stat is an attempt to minimize or negate that influence.
  

• EXPECTED ERA (xERA) takes a pitcher's regular ERA and tries to remove all the external factors influencing that number to come up with a normalized ERA. Things like bullpen support and park factors are removed from the equation to make every pitcher in the game equal to each other. The resulting number tells us what a particular pitcher's ERA would be if everyone pitched under the exact same circumstances.

That is all for now. Come back to MVN Fantasy Outsider next week for a discussion of how we use stats effectively for batters in fantasy baseball. Thanks for reading!