December 3, 2008
Top Prospect Profile: Pedro Alvarez
Pedro Alvarez - Icon SMI
Pedro Alvarez - Pirates Third Baseman
Age: 21
Height: 6'2"
Weight: 212
Bats: Left
Position: Third Base
Relevent Statistics: I'll direct you here for Alvarez's college statistics. The best number involving him, however, is this: 4 years/$6.355M (2009-12), plus 2013-14 club options. The fact that Alvarez signed and is a Pirate is his most relevent statistic.
Scouting Report: Alvarez's best tool is his bat. His draft report card dubbed him as "about as safe as a bet as there is, Alvarez is a polished and poised hitter and should hit for average in the big leagues." He contains power now and should develop more as he continues up the ranks, potentially becoming a 25+ HR guy in the show. Speed on the basepaths is not his game, stealing 16 bases in his collegiate career. Talk about his defense claims that he'll be OK to stay at third base, which is where the Pirates will look to start him. However, a move to first base at some point would make him a better defender.
Resume: In the days leading up the 2008 draft, it was widely believed that Alvarez remained the top talent available, despite a broken hamate bone in his right hand that cut his junior season a bit short. The only question mark surrounding his status was the type of bonus demands he would seek, being a Scott Boras client. The Pirates selected him anyways, and after a long, drawn-out process were able to ink their top prospect. Alvarez had a decorated collegiate career, including National Freshman of the Year honors in 2006 and a first-team All-American the following season. Before his junior season, Vanderbilt head coach Tim Corbin said, "I think he's the best third baseman in the country. He might be the best player in the country. He flashes five tools. He runs very well. He is a great teammate and cares about other people which goes a long way when you're talking about leadership."
Outlook: In a system scarce of talent, Alvarez will be on a fast track to Pittsburgh. The only thing that can possibly hold him back is himself. If he lives up to expectations and hits the ball as he should/can, he will reach Pittsburgh by 2010 -- whether at first base or third. The Pirates will probably start him no higher than their High-A affiliate in Lynchburg. If he struggles in Spring Training, his professional career could begin in Hickory of the Low-A South Atlantic League. Regardless, the bat will carry him. He should finish in at least AA, following the same route as MVN Outsider top prospect, Matt Wieters. Alvarez is an elite talent, something the Pirates farm system has lacked in the past 16 years. He'll shoulder a lot of hope from the fans and organization.
Ranking: It's tough for anyone to rank Alvarez among the rest of the prospects in the minor leagues simply because he hasn't played at all yet. But based on tools alone, you should find him in any publication's top 50 heading into the 2009 season. It will also be interesting to see whether or not those same publications will rank him No. 1 in the Pirates system ahead of centerfielder Andrew McCutchen -- a former first-round pick himself.
Bottom Line: An elite prospect who should rise through the Pittsburgh organization. He will always draw comparisons to the rest of the recent third basemen, including Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman. Alvarez has the bat to be mentioned with those guys.

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Discussion
2 Comments on "Top Prospect Profile: Pedro Alvarez"
#1
Posted by Sean Heyboer, December 3, 2008 10:01 PM
This kid is for real. I am predicting a near A-Rod/Pujols status in the upcoming future. Plus he is a left handed bat.
Look out.
He will be the face of the Pirates.
-s
trumbullandmichigan.com
#2
Posted by Doug Gray, December 5, 2008 3:10 PM
I think there needs to be some caution taken with a guy like Alvarez. He is often labeled as that "can't miss hitter" and labeled as "polished" at the plate.... yet his college stats really suggest otherwise. Looking at other top college hitters taken this year lets look at something pretty simple.... walk rate and strikeout rate, things that tell us the polish of ones skills at the plate in terms of strikezone knowledge and swing. Simple BB and K divided by PA should give us the numbers I am referencing.
Player BB % K%
Pedro Alvarez 15.4% 19.4%
Buster Posey 14.0% 11.1%
Yonder Alonso 19.7% 11.8%
Gordon Beckham 12.0% 13.0%
Justin Smoak 16.6% 11.8%
Alvarez has swung and missed a whole lot more than the other guys, all of whom were playing in high level conferences. It is certainly something worth noting as the odds are his K rate goes up as he faces professional pitching. He has the tools, but his very high contact rate in college leaves me believing his 'readiness' isn't quite what a lot of people say it is.




















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