MVN: Most Valuable Network

It's not just chicks who dig the long ball -- fantasy baseball managers get all gaga over them too. They like them for entirely different reasons, but, sadly, since this blog is about fantasy baseball and not ladies with "long legs and brains," I will confine myself to that group which I know best. For those of you now in the mood for some estrogenic stimulation, head over to the Babes Love Baseball blog for a healthy dose.

As I was saying, fantasy leaguers have a fondness for home runs that approaches the pathological. This is due to the fact that a home run helps us in four of the major scoring categories: home runs (duh!), RBIs, runs and batting average. Additionally, if there was a category for sexiness, home runs would be worth a touchdown while everything else was worth a free throw (OK, strikeouts would be worth a safety).

But as man cannot live by bread alone, so must fantasy leaguers find balance in their statistical diets. Since the David Wrights and Grady Sizemores of the world are exceptionally rare, we have to seek that balance throughout the rest of our lineups. The baseball world is littered with sluggers like Dave Kingman, who do little but smash bombs, or thieves like Hugh Nicol, who don't do anything but steal bases, so it behooves us to find guys who have all-around talent. I know, easier said than done, but this article is intended as your road map to doing just that.

Last week I discussed the main statistical categories that can be used to evaluate a hitter's skills. Now it's time to discuss the process itself, but keep in mind that none of these stats should be considered in isolation. The best analysis will take all the numbers into account to paint a broader picture of a player's abilities and potential.

Let us first start with the popular on-base plus slugging (OPS) stat. In short, unless a guy with an OPS below .700 has something like 50 stolen bases, then his fantasy value is probably extremely limited depending on the format. OPS is a composite statistic that measures both a player's ability to get on base and his ability to hit for extra bases. Therefore, an OPS below .700 represents a skill set that is poor to moderate in getting on base with virtually no power.

By contrast, anyone who can muster an OPS over 1.000 is demonstrating Hall-of-Fame skills (six inactive players finished their careers with an OPS over 1.000 - Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Hank Greenberg and Rogers Hornsby... need I say more?). But it is one thing to have a plus-1.000 OPS for your career and another to do it for one week. I tend to look at what a player has done over a two to three week period (10 to 20 games) to get a sense of their potential fantasy value.

If a hitter can maintain a .700 to 1.000 OPS for more than 10 games, then he might be of use to your fantasy squad. The tricky thing is that if he starts slugging lots of homers in a short period of time, other players in your league will pick up on it and acquire his services before you can. However, a lot of batters can fly under the radar before they snag a lot of attention by hitting occasional homers accompanied by bunches of doubles. These are the top in-season breakout candidates we want to keep our eyes on.

Another indicator of potential value is contained within a player's walk-to-strikeout ratio (BB/K). We are looking for a high number from this stat as anything over 1.0 tells us of a hitter who walks more often than he strikes out. A BB/K over 1.0 is hard to come by though, as only nine qualifying batters finished 2008 with a plus-1.0 BB/K. Still, anything over 0.70 is considered very good.

Despite the fact that walks do not usually correlate directly to fantasy value, a player who walks a lot is a patient hitter. In general, patient hitters tend towards having higher batting averages and greater overall fantasy value. For example, of the 47 qualifying hitters who finished 2008 with a BB/K of 0.70 or higher, only five had an OPS below .705. Any hitter who can maintain something near a 0.70 BB/K over a two to three week period deserves consideration in fantasy leagues.

Next on our checklist of evaluative statistics is batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Similar to BABIP for pitchers, the league average BABIP for hitters is usually around .300. Any particular hitter's divergence from that is sometimes taken as a sign of an unusually lucky batter who is due for either more or less hits. The difference between BABIP for pitchers and batters, however, is that hitters are thought to have more control over theirs.

Truly gifted hitters like Manny Ramirez (2008 BABIP = .373), Albert Pujols (.346) and Ichiro Suzuki (.337) will almost always be able to maintain BABIPs above .300 because of their skill in hitting balls "where they ain't." Speed demons like Matt Kemp (.363), Brian Roberts (.345), Chone Figgins (.333) and Jose Reyes (.319) will also usually beat the league average because they can run out groundballs with their legs.

So while a high or low BABIP from a hitter is not necessarily a sign of a player due for a correction, it is a warning sign that one could be coming. The safe range for BABIP is thought to be around .280 to .320. Too low means that the player's batting average could be due to rise; too high could mean that it's due to fall. Invest accordingly.

Finally, a player's flyball rate (FB%) in relation to his home run to flyball ratio (HR/FB) is a stat that we should eye carefully. Most big time power hitters will hit around 40 percent (40 FB%) or more of their batted balls in the air. If just 15 percent of those balls leave the yard (15 HR/FB), then we could be talking about 30 home runs or more from your average hitter. For instance, in 2008 Prince Fielder had a 40.3 FB%, an 18.2 HR/FB and 34 home runs (a 15.0 HR/FB would have meant 28 HRs from young Prince).

What we want to look for is young players with a history of power in the minor leagues who have yet to break out. A good example would be Alex Gordon. A masher in college and the minors, Gordon had a 47.6 FB% accompanied by a meager 8.9 HR/FB in 2008; the result was only 16 home runs. If Gordon continues to hit flyballs at his 2008 pace but increases his HR/FB, we could be talking about a guy who could approach 22 to 28 home runs (if not more). The key is the high FB% he has already attained along with the history of a higher HR/FB.

Is Alex Gordon going to break out in 2009? I do not know for sure, but I do know that from 2007 to 2008, Gordon improved his OPS, BB/K and BABIP (still within the safe range) and hit more fly balls with a better HR/FB. The potential for his breakout in '09 has me willing to invest a 12th round pick in his services. I would strongly advise that you do the same.

These stats I have listed here are but a few examples of how we can evaluate talent for fantasy purposes utilizing the math. There are others to look at, but I picked my favorites for this piece. Stay tuned to MVN Fantasy Outsider for the rest of the preseason and after Opening Day for all the best fantasy analysis.