Fantasy Baseball: Top 120 Breakdown (1-12)

January 12, 2009

Fantasy Baseball: Top 120 Breakdown (1-12)

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By Jeff Freels

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Albert Pujols - SD Dirk/Flickr.com

1. HANLEY RAMIREZ, SS - FLA

The Florida Marlins leadoff hitter is stellar in BA, HR, R and SB and only lags in RBI because of his lineup position. His .239 Isolated Power (ISO) was the highest in the game for a SS in 2008, his FB%+HR/FB ratios (36.7+19.2) and BABIP (.332) all indicate that his numbers are sustainable and his BB/K of 0.75 was excellent. He is only 25, but he already has three years of experience. Virtually the consensus number one pick.

2. ALEX RODRIGUEZ, 3B - NYY

He had a "down" year in 2008 by A-Rod standards, but he still managed to have strong numbers across the board. He is the best pure power hitter among all third basemen, but he could stand to walk a little more (only 65 BB in 2008). At 33 years of age we have to expect a slowdown at some point, but 2009 is not going to be that year. You know exactly what you are getting and it is tremendous value at an important position.

3. ALBERT PUJOLS, 1B - STL

Probably the best pure hitter in the game, Pujols again posted phenomenal numbers despite preseason fears of an injured elbow. Led all of baseball in ISO (.296), BB/K (1.93) and OPS (1.114). His .357 batting average might have been slightly inflated by a .346 BABIP, but a small decline in his BA would do little to diminish his overall value. You should not count on more than 5 SB -- any more would be a bonus. He will be 29 years-old in 2009 and is at the peak of his game.

4. DAVID WRIGHT, 3B - NYM

Slightly more productive than A-Rod in 2008, Wright is a balanced hitter who already has five years of service time at the age of 26. He takes walks at an excellent rate (0.80 BB/K), steals bases effectively (though some have speculated that his SB totals could dip in 2009) and has good power ratios in FB%+HR/FB. A .328 BABIP was low for Wright in 2008, so his BA could be due to rise in 2009. I like Wright over Jose Reyes because he is a true five-category performer.

5. JOSE REYES, SS - NYM

The Mets young speedster will turn 26 in 2009 and is just coming into his peak skill years. His BB/K ratio fell from an elite 0.99 in 2007 to a merely good 0.80 in 2008 and his BABIP has never shown much consistency from one season to the next; as a result, look for his batting average to fall around .290 in 2009. His main value comes in the form of stolen bases though and that shows no signs of falling off. His stolen base success rate (SB%) has been right around 79 percent in all four seasons. Reyes owners can pencil him in for 50 to 70 SBs.

6. MIGUEL CABRERA, 1B - DET

Cabrera took some time to warm up out of the gate, but he had a terrific second half. Already with six years of service at the young age of 26, Cabrera is one of the best power hitters in the game. He took fewer walks (56) than in any season since his abbreviated 2003 debut, but his power ratios were right in line with his career numbers. A .316 BABIP was also the lowest of his career and portends a rise in his batting average for 2009. A stat line of .320/40/120/100/5 is not out of the question this season.

7. GRADY SIZEMORE, OF - CLE

The first outfielder to make the rankings does so because of his 30/30 season in 2008. Though his .268 batting average was nothing special, Sizemore's peripherals show a hitter who continues to improve. His BB/K has risen in every full season of his career, his K% fell dramatically last season and his .291 BABIP (much lower than his career .324 BABIP) in 2008 could mean a big jump in batting average for 2009. His HR/FB ratio took a big jump in '08 so expect fewer dingers in '09, but pay full value for this stud.

8. JIMMY ROLLINS, SS - PHI

Admittedly, Rollins had a bit of an off year in 2008. Time lost to injury contributed to his weakest season statistically since 2003, despite the fact that he achieved a career high in SBs (helped by an otherworldly 94.0 SB%). But with elite shortstops in low supply and his 2007 MVP season a recent memory, we are forced to give J-Roll a mulligan for his 2008 campaign. The good news is that his 1.05 BB/K in '08 was the highest of his career and his career-low 30.6 FB% is almost certain to rise again. Count on a 16-20 home runs, 100+ runs and 35+ SBs.

9. MARK TEIXEIRA, 1B - NYY

Big Tex joins the Evil Empire and brings his AAA reliability with him. In the last five seasons, Teixeira has batted over .300 and scored 100+ runs thrice and has hit 30+ home runs and driven in 100+ RBIs in all five years. Also, he has only been DL'ed twice for 50 total days in that period. To top it off, now he gets to bat in the middle of the Yankees ridiculous lineup. If you want a consistent player with a minimum of risk in the first round, look no further than Teixeira.

10. BRANDON WEBB, SP - ARI

There will probably not be a single fantasy league in which Webb will be taken in the first round. I would also be willing to bet that he is not the first pitcher chosen. But if you want a rock solid arm who you can plug into your lineup on Opening Day and who will be there to the end, take Webb. Five straight seasons of 200+ innings. Six straight seasons of 164+ strikeouts. A career 64.3 GB%. His 2.82 K/BB in 2008 was dominant and yet it was only the third-highest of his career. He will turn 30 in '09 and he has never been on the disabled list. Take him in the third round after Santana, Lincecum and Sabathia have left the board.

11. RYAN BRAUN, OF - MIL

Count me among the naysayers who thought Braun would come back down to Earth in 2008 after his insane rookie season. So much for that. Braun showed maturity as a hitter as he walked more (6.4 BB%), struck out less (21.1 K%) and improved his game across the board. His batting average fell to .285 as his BABIP regressed from an unsustainable .367 in '07 to a more reasonable .308 in '08. Even his HR/FB ratio came down in '08, but that did not stop him from slugging 37 bombs. All told, Braun is virtually a lock for a .290 batting average, 30+ home runs, 90 runs, 100 RBIs and 12-18 SBs.

12. JOHAN SANTANA, SP - NYM

Last season Santana had his lowest K% since 2001 and highest BB% since 2003. His fastball velocity has declined in each of the last four seasons. Should you still draft him? Absolutely. Even a slightly less effective Santana is one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. His consistency is attractive also: 200+ innings, 200+ strikeouts and 16+ wins in five consecutive seasons is the juice you get with the squeeze. At 30 years-old he still has plenty of gas in the tank, so take him in the early- to mid-second round if you want a top arm.

Tags: Arizona Diamondbacks, Cleveland Indians, Detroit Tigers, Fantasy, Florida Marlins, Milwaukee Brewers, MLB, New York Mets, New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, St. Louis Cardinals