January 7, 2009

MLB Crystal Ball: Burrell Keeps Rays in Contention in East

Pat Burrell will provide a big bat in the middle of Tampa's order -- Scott Ableman/flickr

With the Yankees doing their best to ensure they'll never miss the playoffs again and the Red Sox looking as strong as ever, you couldn't help but feel that the Rays may be left behind, unable to keep up with the spending of their bigger AL East brothers.  After all, at most only two teams from the division can make the playoffs.

That's not to say the Rays were a fluke -- you certainly don't win the AL East by a decent margin by mistake.  They found ways to win close games, were nearly unbeatable at home, and had good pitching throughout the year.  Unfortunately for Tampa Bay, they play in the only division in baseball where every other rival doesn't have a problem spending money.  In order to keep their spot atop the division, eventually they had to start (smartly) spending money.

That's exactly what they did when they signed Pat Burrell to a 2 year contract worth $16 million.  For most teams, a $16 million commitment over 2 years wouldn't be a big deal.  For a market like Tampa Bay, it represents an all-in bid, hoping to cash in on a small window of opportunity while they still can.  Fortunately, it looks like Andrew Friedman has spent his money wisely.

The Rays scored 774 runs in 2008, and adding Burrell is sure to improve that number.  Burrell has hit at least 20 home runs every season since his rookie year in 2000, when he hit 18 in 408 at-bats.  Last year, only three Rays hit that many home runs -- Carlos Pena (31), Evan Longoria (27), and Eric Hinske (20).  He's also drawn at least 70 walks every year since 2000, a total that only Pena (96), B.J. Upton (97), and Akinori Iwamura (70) reached last season.  His .367 on-base percentage last season was bested by only Pena (.377) and Upton (.383).

Burrell isn't appreciated as much as he should be, for whatever reason.  Some point to his batting average and refuse to believe he's a valuable player.  Others choose to use the "un-clutch" label.  The numbers don't lie, though -- in 8 of his 9 big league seasons, he's posted an OPS+ over 100.  In each of the past four years, he had an OPS+ over 120.  No matter how you slice it, the Rays just got a very good deal on a player that can put up the numbers Burrell can.

Playing most of his games in a hitter's park in Philadelphia, it's easy to be skeptical of his numbers.  Granted, playing in Citizen's Bank Park isn't the same as playing in Coors Field, but with a multi-year batting Park Factor of 103, it's definitely a favorable place for hitters.  However, there's a chance that Burrell's offensive numbers may actually go up with a transition to Tampa Bay and the AL East.  When Burrell played in the NL East, he frequently had to travel to parks that weren't so hitter-friendly -- Shea Stadium, Dolphins Stadium, and Turner Field all have multi-year park factors of 99, historically making them more pitcher-friendly.

Tampa Bay's Tropicana Field actually has the same exact multi-year Park Factors as Citizen's Bank Park -- 103 for batters and 102 for pitchers -- so it's not out of the realm of possibility that Burrell's home numbers will stay consistent.  Additionally, the rest of the AL East is filled with fantastic hitter's parks -- Fenway Park (108), Oriole Park at Camden Yards (103), and Yankee Stadium (103) all historically benefit offense (of course, Burrell will be playing in a new Yankee Stadium, but the new park will have the same dimensions, so we can probably expect a similar park factor out of the new building).  Only Toronto's SkyDome/Rogers Centre has favored pitchers, and only slightly so with a factor of 99.

By adding Burrell to their lineup and playing in so many hitter-friendly parks, the Rays may just have the best offense in the AL East in 2008.  The Yankees may have a better 1-2 punch with Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira, but the Rays will have a very deep lineup with very few easy outs.  With Upton, Pena, and Burrell occupying the middle of that lineup and Carl Crawford likely bouncing back from a career-worst year, the Rays will get a ton of guys on base -- and, as a result, score a ton of runs.  A bat like Burrell's may make the difference between fading into 3rd place and finding a way back into the playoffs after surviving a brutal division.
Tags: MLB, MLB Crystal Ball, Tampa Bay Rays

Discussion

2 Comments on "MLB Crystal Ball: Burrell Keeps Rays in Contention in East"

#1

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Posted by Joe, January 7, 2009 7:39 PM

The Rays could be getting better in every way next year. Burrel will improve the offense, but don't forget that they should get a full year from Longoria, Crawford, and Pena and Upton's power numbers might start looking like they did in '07 again.

For pitching, they are replacing Edwin Jackson with David Price and will hopefully get a full year from Kazmir. Their defense should not get worse with good defenders like Bartlett, Longoria, Iwamura, and Pena in the infield and good athletes like Crawford, Upton, and Joyce in the outfield. Their bullpen should not have regressed either with Wheeler, Howell, and Percival closing out games. They should also have a good bench with Aybar, Gross, Zorbist, and probably Perez all providing good pop off the bench and at least adequate defense.

They also have a lot of depth in the minors with guys like Wade Davis and Jeff Niemann capable of filling in for any of the starters and Reid Brignac providing pop from a middle infield spot.

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#2

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Posted by Jeremy, January 8, 2009 1:44 PM

Bring on another season of no yankes in the playoffs, and hopefully another division takes the Wild Card too. I dream of seeing a postseason with no red soccks or yankes.. but I'm sure Joe Buck would find a way to work them into his broadcast 1000 times a game.

An Oakland, Minn, KC, Tampa AL Postseason would be a nice kick in the teeth to ol Selig.

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