MVN: Most Valuable Network

Jim Rice was finally named to the Hall of Fame earlier this week, ending years of "should he or shouldn't he" debate.  It was Rice's final year on the ballot, but he was finally able to get the 75% he needed to get into Cooperstown.  Considering how far Rice has come to finally get into the Hall -- he drew only 29.8% of the vote in 1995, his first year of eligibility -- it's safe to say that Rice's election gives a glimmer of hope to some other players who have been borderline cases for the past decade.

One player that seems to be traveling along a similar path is Bert Blyleven. The right-hander has seen a slow rise in his vote totals over the years, from as low as 14% to 62.7% this year.  Like Rice, it seems as though Blyleven will eventually get in, although it'll be at the last minute.  Rice got in on his final chance -- Blyleven has three years to get up to 75%.

Blyleven's such an interesting case because he has impressive career numbers, but achieved those numbers in a rather unimpressive fashion -- he was one of the game's best pitchers for an extended period of time, but never got the recognition from the media as such while he was playing.  As a result, we get his lack of awards and All-Star games as reasons to keep him out of the Hall from those who hold the voting power.  

I'm not about to break down the (many) reasons Blyleven deserves to get into Cooperstown.  Many other people -- including Joe Posnanski, in interesting fashion -- did that shortly after this year's results were made public.  Instead, I'm going to look into the Crystal Ball in an attempt to see which recent retiree could run into similar problems getting elected.

It definitely isn't Greg Maddux -- he'll get in without a problem, much like Rickey Henderson this year.  Same goes for Pedro Martinez and Tom Glavine, who haven't retired yet but will likely do so within the next year.  But what about someone like Mike Mussina?

Looking at the numbers, Mussina and Blyleven had very similar careers.  Blyleven finished his 22-year career with a record of 287-250, well over 3,000 strikeouts, a 3.31 ERA, and a 1.198 WHIP.  Mussina capped an 18-year career with a record of 270-153, nearly 3,000 strikeouts, a 3.68 ERA, and a 1.192 WHIP.  Blyleven had one 20-win season, one 19-win season, and five 17-win seasons.  Mussina had one 20-win season, two 19-win seasons, two 18-win seasons, and two 17-win seasons.  Blyleven had two Top-3 Cy Young finishes, Mussina had one.  Blyleven finished his career with an ERA+ of 118, while Mussina finished at 123.

There's little doubt that Mussina has Hall of Fame numbers.  However, like Blyleven, those against his candidacy could easily point to his longevity and throw around terms like "compiler" and "very good" but not "Hall of Famer".  Moose does have a few things going for him, though, that Blyleven doesn't and may help him find a spot in Cooperstown quicker.

For one, Mussina had the benefit of media exposure for much of his career.  Even before spending the last eight years of his career in New York, he pitched against the Yankees (and Red Sox) multiple times as a division rival.  Blyleven, on the other hand, played for Minnesota, Texas, Pittsburgh, Cleveland, and California, never quite getting the same amount of exposure.  Being a Yankee certainly can't hurt his chances -- they have the third-highest amount of Hall of Famers, behind the Giants and Dodgers (and, of course, both used to also play in New York).

Another factor working in Mussina's favor is the potential boycotting of certain players from his era.  Going forward, it'll definitely be interesting to see which players are going to be left out despite having slam dunk numbers, just because writers are suddenly suspicious of big numbers.  At this point, it looks like it'll be a cold day in hell before Roger Clemens gets in.  Since we're all a bit paranoid about the flamethrowers of the '90s who were still throwing heat well into their 40's, perhaps guys like Mussina -- relying on control rather than pure stuff -- will be thought of more highly.

If that's the case, Mussina could have a short wait before getting enshrined.  Otherwise, he may end up like Blyleven 15+ years from now, watching his percentage rise slowly every year and hoping he hits the 75% mark before his time on the ballot is up.