January 12, 2009
MLB Top 10: Best Free Agents Still Available (And Why They're Still Not Signed)
Manny Ramirez -- pvsbond/flickr
A week ago, I counted down the 10 best offseason moves that flew under the radar to this point in the offseason. This week, it's the other side of the coin -- the guys who have yet to sign on with new teams. Despite us nearing the halfway point in January, there are still a handful of impact players available on the free agent market. Why are they still available? Some have an unwarranted Type A status. Others have injury concerns. Here are the Top 10 players still available, and why they're still on the market.
10. RP Brandon Lyon
Lyon isn't really anything special -- he doesn't have incredibly overpowering stuff and has had trouble keeping guys off base (career WHIP: 1.421). He lands on this list, though, because he's one of the best relievers still on the free agent market and doesn't require any draft pick compensation -- he's the lone player on the list whose value isn't hurt by a Type A or Type B classification. Even though he should be cheap to sign and teams wouldn't have to give up a pick in order to get him, Lyon sits on the market because of his inconsistent performance. He posted an ERA of 4.70 in 59 innings last season, but the year before his ERA was 2.68 in 74 innings. Relievers tend to alternate between good and bad seasons -- if Lyon can keep guys off base, he should repeat the success he had in 2007 when he had a WHIP of 1.243, the second lowest WHIP of his career.
9. SS Orlando Cabrera
Cabrera is a nice shortstop to have, but there are a few reasons why he's still looking for a place to work in 2009. One reason is his Type A classification, which scares off most teams that finished in the top half of the league -- they don't want to give up a first round pick for a guy who's posted an OPS+ above 100 exactly once in his 12-year career. A second reason is the pricetag -- Cabrera made $10 million last year with the White Sox, and by all accounts he's asking for something similar in a multi-year deal. That scares off teams in the bottom half of the league that have their first rounders protected, like the Oakland A's. A third reason is his age -- he'll be heading into his Age 34 season in 2009, coming off a year that saw a 20-point drop in batting average, 11-point drop in OBP, and 26-point drop in slugging from 2006 to 2007. While he's still an outstanding defensive shortstop (he was 41 runs above replacement level in 2008), it's likely not worth $10 million per year. Right now, the A's seem to have the most rumored interest in the aging shortstop, but Billy Beane is likely waiting to see if he can get him at a discounted price.
8. RP Juan Cruz
Cruz is seen as a possible shutdown closer if he ever got the chance -- unfortunately for him, not many teams seem to be willing to take that chance for the price of a first round draft pick. Milwaukee was rumored to be interested in the flamethrowing righty before the Yankees signed Mark Teixeira, bumping their compensation for CC Sabathia to a 2nd round pick. Without a first rounder to spare, the Brewers backed away from Cruz and turned to Trevor Hoffman, who wasn't offered arbitration by the Padres and didn't require a long-term contract. Cruz has the nasty stuff that makes him a tempting player to sign, but his lack of control gives any potential free agent deal boom-or-bust potential. The guys at River Avenue Blues have a nice idea -- what if the Yankees signed Cruz, only having to give up a 4th round pick due to Teixeira, Sabathia, and Burnett all being rated higher? That'd be a heck of a steal.
7. 2B Orlando Hudson
This list is heavy on Diamondbacks, and you can bet that Arizona fans are hoping that players like Cruz and Hudson go to teams in the top half of the league, so Josh Byrnes has a few more first round draft picks to play with come June. Unfortunately, it seems as though the Type A designation seems to be scaring many teams away from Arizona's free agents. Hudson is a fine second baseman who's both great with the glove and good with the bat. However, he's on the wrong side of 30 now and likely isn't worth the risk of losing a first round pick. It doesn't help, either, that most teams seem to be set at second base. Washington would make sense (and they'd only have to surrender a second rounder), but it doesn't seem like anything will happen anytime soon.
6. SP Oliver Perez
Two words -- Scott Boras. Boras insists on billing Perez as a potential top-of-the-rotation guy, and as a result, demands that Perez be paid like one. Much like Juan Cruz, Perez has shown dominating potential, but has been incredibly inconsistent in his big league career. The New York media took to calling him "Big Game Ollie", but the truth is that he wastes too many pitches trying to strike everyone out that he walks too many hitters to go deep into games. You're not going to be paid like an ace if you walk 105 guys in 194 innings in your contract year. He'd be a nice #3 or #4 option for teams looking to add depth to their rotation, but they'd be insane to give up the requisite first round pick for the Type A free agent or commit much money long-term. At this point, it seems like Perez may end up pitching for the Mets again in 2009. He's just too unpredictable to risk giving him a long-term contract.
5. RF Bobby Abreu
Not only did the Yankees let Abreu walk, but they didn't even offer him arbitration. So why is a career .300 hitter with a .405 OBP still available if he's a Type A that doesn't require compensation? Similar to Orlando Cabrera, Abreu's main flaws are that he's a.) old and b.) expensive. If the Yankees are declining arby to you because they're worried you'll accept it, you're probably making too much money. Abreu would still be a good free agent signing, though -- it just depends on the price. He's a below-average fielder at this point and isn't much of a power threat, but he's still one of the best in the business at getting on base. He'd be a decent option for a team like Oakland, looking for a short-term solution in their lineup. Like Cabrera, Billy Beane is reportedly waiting for Abreu's pricetag to drop before offering a deal.
4. SP Derek Lowe
Lowe reportedly has a deal on the table from the Mets and Braves, but has also been linked to teams like the Phillies and Red Sox. It seems unlikely that he'll land back in Boston now that the Red Sox have raided the bargain bin to fill out their rotation. Lowe is still available because agent Scott Boras has insisted on a 4-year deal, but most teams (rightly) think that idea is insane for a guy who will be 36 this year. Lowe's insistence on a 4-year deal is the main reason why he's been on the market so long, but apparently the Braves -- considered the leading candidate to land the righty -- have only offered a 3-year deal. Perhaps Lowe and Boras will be willing to back off the 4-year demand sometime soon.
3. SP Ben Sheets
When healthy, Sheets has always been on of the best pitchers in the National League. Sheets' problem -- and the reason why he's still waiting for his phone to ring -- is his perceived injury proneness. Sheets actually put together a relatively healthy season in 2008, throwing 198 innings for the Brewers before running into elbow problems in late September. Questions about that injury are the main reason why Sheets is still on the market, despite the fact that he's had a better injury history than someone like A.J. Burnett. The Brewers offered Sheets arbitration, which would have likely netted him a salary in the neighborhood of $15 million next season. Sheets declined, looking for a long-term offer for that kind of annual money, and hasn't found anyone that's remotely interested. It's starting to look like Sheets made a mistake by declining the Brewers' offer of arbitration -- he might still get the 2 or 3 year deal he was looking for, but it's extremely unlikely that it'll be at the rate he was expecting.
2. LF Adam Dunn
Dunn's one of the most controversial players in the league when it comes to fans debating his true value. Statheads love his ability to draw walks and hit home runs, traditional thinkers hate his strikeout totals and lack of ability to hit for contact. A similar player -- Pat Burrell -- signed a relatively cheap deal with the Tampa Bay Rays last week, so it seems like Dunn is heading down that road as well. Dunn may be waiting to see what happens with Manny Ramirez to see if he can capitalize on the market if the teams that missed out on him would be interested in transferring their focus onto Dunn. Earlier this offseason there was talk of Washington offering Dunn a huge contract to become the face of the franchise, but those appear to be just rumors at this point. With the Diamondbacks declining arbitration to Dunn, some team could get a great deal on Dunn without giving up compensation, much like the Rays got with Burrell.
1. LF Manny Ramirez
At this point, it's fairly obvious why Ramirez is still available. His antics in Boston got tons of media attention, and he was widely exposed as a clubhouse cancer. Even when Ramirez was tearing up the NL in Los Angeles, there weren't many shedding tears in Boston. His history of "Manny being Manny" while under a long-term contract is reason enough for most teams to stay away -- if he has nothing to prove, he gets complacent and bored, leading to his antics. When he was in LA, he was on a mission to prove that he's still one of the best hitters in the game. In that regard he succeeded -- no one doubts that Manny will continue to contribute despite his age. Teams are just worried that he'll provide more headaches than runs on the scoreboard.
10. RP Brandon Lyon
Lyon isn't really anything special -- he doesn't have incredibly overpowering stuff and has had trouble keeping guys off base (career WHIP: 1.421). He lands on this list, though, because he's one of the best relievers still on the free agent market and doesn't require any draft pick compensation -- he's the lone player on the list whose value isn't hurt by a Type A or Type B classification. Even though he should be cheap to sign and teams wouldn't have to give up a pick in order to get him, Lyon sits on the market because of his inconsistent performance. He posted an ERA of 4.70 in 59 innings last season, but the year before his ERA was 2.68 in 74 innings. Relievers tend to alternate between good and bad seasons -- if Lyon can keep guys off base, he should repeat the success he had in 2007 when he had a WHIP of 1.243, the second lowest WHIP of his career.
9. SS Orlando Cabrera
Cabrera is a nice shortstop to have, but there are a few reasons why he's still looking for a place to work in 2009. One reason is his Type A classification, which scares off most teams that finished in the top half of the league -- they don't want to give up a first round pick for a guy who's posted an OPS+ above 100 exactly once in his 12-year career. A second reason is the pricetag -- Cabrera made $10 million last year with the White Sox, and by all accounts he's asking for something similar in a multi-year deal. That scares off teams in the bottom half of the league that have their first rounders protected, like the Oakland A's. A third reason is his age -- he'll be heading into his Age 34 season in 2009, coming off a year that saw a 20-point drop in batting average, 11-point drop in OBP, and 26-point drop in slugging from 2006 to 2007. While he's still an outstanding defensive shortstop (he was 41 runs above replacement level in 2008), it's likely not worth $10 million per year. Right now, the A's seem to have the most rumored interest in the aging shortstop, but Billy Beane is likely waiting to see if he can get him at a discounted price.
8. RP Juan Cruz
Cruz is seen as a possible shutdown closer if he ever got the chance -- unfortunately for him, not many teams seem to be willing to take that chance for the price of a first round draft pick. Milwaukee was rumored to be interested in the flamethrowing righty before the Yankees signed Mark Teixeira, bumping their compensation for CC Sabathia to a 2nd round pick. Without a first rounder to spare, the Brewers backed away from Cruz and turned to Trevor Hoffman, who wasn't offered arbitration by the Padres and didn't require a long-term contract. Cruz has the nasty stuff that makes him a tempting player to sign, but his lack of control gives any potential free agent deal boom-or-bust potential. The guys at River Avenue Blues have a nice idea -- what if the Yankees signed Cruz, only having to give up a 4th round pick due to Teixeira, Sabathia, and Burnett all being rated higher? That'd be a heck of a steal.
7. 2B Orlando Hudson
This list is heavy on Diamondbacks, and you can bet that Arizona fans are hoping that players like Cruz and Hudson go to teams in the top half of the league, so Josh Byrnes has a few more first round draft picks to play with come June. Unfortunately, it seems as though the Type A designation seems to be scaring many teams away from Arizona's free agents. Hudson is a fine second baseman who's both great with the glove and good with the bat. However, he's on the wrong side of 30 now and likely isn't worth the risk of losing a first round pick. It doesn't help, either, that most teams seem to be set at second base. Washington would make sense (and they'd only have to surrender a second rounder), but it doesn't seem like anything will happen anytime soon.
6. SP Oliver Perez
Two words -- Scott Boras. Boras insists on billing Perez as a potential top-of-the-rotation guy, and as a result, demands that Perez be paid like one. Much like Juan Cruz, Perez has shown dominating potential, but has been incredibly inconsistent in his big league career. The New York media took to calling him "Big Game Ollie", but the truth is that he wastes too many pitches trying to strike everyone out that he walks too many hitters to go deep into games. You're not going to be paid like an ace if you walk 105 guys in 194 innings in your contract year. He'd be a nice #3 or #4 option for teams looking to add depth to their rotation, but they'd be insane to give up the requisite first round pick for the Type A free agent or commit much money long-term. At this point, it seems like Perez may end up pitching for the Mets again in 2009. He's just too unpredictable to risk giving him a long-term contract.
5. RF Bobby Abreu
Not only did the Yankees let Abreu walk, but they didn't even offer him arbitration. So why is a career .300 hitter with a .405 OBP still available if he's a Type A that doesn't require compensation? Similar to Orlando Cabrera, Abreu's main flaws are that he's a.) old and b.) expensive. If the Yankees are declining arby to you because they're worried you'll accept it, you're probably making too much money. Abreu would still be a good free agent signing, though -- it just depends on the price. He's a below-average fielder at this point and isn't much of a power threat, but he's still one of the best in the business at getting on base. He'd be a decent option for a team like Oakland, looking for a short-term solution in their lineup. Like Cabrera, Billy Beane is reportedly waiting for Abreu's pricetag to drop before offering a deal.
4. SP Derek Lowe
Lowe reportedly has a deal on the table from the Mets and Braves, but has also been linked to teams like the Phillies and Red Sox. It seems unlikely that he'll land back in Boston now that the Red Sox have raided the bargain bin to fill out their rotation. Lowe is still available because agent Scott Boras has insisted on a 4-year deal, but most teams (rightly) think that idea is insane for a guy who will be 36 this year. Lowe's insistence on a 4-year deal is the main reason why he's been on the market so long, but apparently the Braves -- considered the leading candidate to land the righty -- have only offered a 3-year deal. Perhaps Lowe and Boras will be willing to back off the 4-year demand sometime soon.
3. SP Ben Sheets
When healthy, Sheets has always been on of the best pitchers in the National League. Sheets' problem -- and the reason why he's still waiting for his phone to ring -- is his perceived injury proneness. Sheets actually put together a relatively healthy season in 2008, throwing 198 innings for the Brewers before running into elbow problems in late September. Questions about that injury are the main reason why Sheets is still on the market, despite the fact that he's had a better injury history than someone like A.J. Burnett. The Brewers offered Sheets arbitration, which would have likely netted him a salary in the neighborhood of $15 million next season. Sheets declined, looking for a long-term offer for that kind of annual money, and hasn't found anyone that's remotely interested. It's starting to look like Sheets made a mistake by declining the Brewers' offer of arbitration -- he might still get the 2 or 3 year deal he was looking for, but it's extremely unlikely that it'll be at the rate he was expecting.
2. LF Adam Dunn
Dunn's one of the most controversial players in the league when it comes to fans debating his true value. Statheads love his ability to draw walks and hit home runs, traditional thinkers hate his strikeout totals and lack of ability to hit for contact. A similar player -- Pat Burrell -- signed a relatively cheap deal with the Tampa Bay Rays last week, so it seems like Dunn is heading down that road as well. Dunn may be waiting to see what happens with Manny Ramirez to see if he can capitalize on the market if the teams that missed out on him would be interested in transferring their focus onto Dunn. Earlier this offseason there was talk of Washington offering Dunn a huge contract to become the face of the franchise, but those appear to be just rumors at this point. With the Diamondbacks declining arbitration to Dunn, some team could get a great deal on Dunn without giving up compensation, much like the Rays got with Burrell.
1. LF Manny Ramirez
At this point, it's fairly obvious why Ramirez is still available. His antics in Boston got tons of media attention, and he was widely exposed as a clubhouse cancer. Even when Ramirez was tearing up the NL in Los Angeles, there weren't many shedding tears in Boston. His history of "Manny being Manny" while under a long-term contract is reason enough for most teams to stay away -- if he has nothing to prove, he gets complacent and bored, leading to his antics. When he was in LA, he was on a mission to prove that he's still one of the best hitters in the game. In that regard he succeeded -- no one doubts that Manny will continue to contribute despite his age. Teams are just worried that he'll provide more headaches than runs on the scoreboard.

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