January 7, 2009

NBA Great Debates: Which Team is More Likely to Dethrone Boston: Orlando or Cleveland?

LeBron James - Keith Allison/Flickr.com

NBA Outsider's Amar Panchmatia and Joe Boikess debate the issue: Which team is more likely to dethrone the Boston Celtics: the Cleveland Cavaliers or Orlando Magic?

Amar Panchmatia argues in favor of Cleveland:

Orlando forward Rashard Lewis recently referred to the Magic as "that other team" whenever there is a conversation about the league's top teams. But although Orlando's 26-8 start is as legitimate as it gets -- and their depth, veteran leadership, and discipline is a benchmark of their stability -- there's a reason the Cleveland Cavaliers have always been able to keep the Magic at arm's length through the first 35 games this season:

They're simply better.

While Orlando stood relatively pat in the offseason a summer after making a big splash for Lewis, the Cavs went out and gave up next to nothing for Mo Williams, who is every bit as dynamic as Orlando's Jameer Nelson. And just as it took the Magic a season to do last year after adding a big piece like Lewis, the Cavs were just letting the dust settle from a three-team, 11-player trade last February that ripped up the old supporting cast around LeBron James and replaced it with a new one.

And while the Cavs' offense is just now starting to come around for the first time in the "LeBron James era," there have been two principle categories where the Cavs have always been able to hang their hat on: Defense and rebounding. The Cavaliers, unlike the Magic, are not just good, but elite in both categories.

Through Monday, the Cavs were #1 in the entire Association in points allowed, surrendering just a stingy 89.4 points per game. The Magic are no slouches, either, with their 93.5 points per game allowed ranking fourth in the league.

But #4 is not #1, and such suffocating team defense is what has made head coach Mike Brown's group as successful as it has been over the past several years.

Orlando ranks third to Cleveland's second in opponents' field goal percentage, but it's rebounding where the Cavs are able to leave the Magic in the dust for good. The Cavaliers have traditionally been one of the best rebounding teams in the league under Brown, and this year is no exception. The Cavs rank third in the NBA behind Boston and Portland in rebounding differential at plus-3.81. Orlando, however, is a putrid 20th at minus-1.29.

Why is this the case for the Magic despite having the best rebounder in the game in Dwight Howard? Well, head coach Stan Van Gundy's club has surrounded Howard with perimeter-oriented big men, with Lewis playing power forward and Hedo Turkoglu playing the three. The Cavs, by contrast, have Ben Wallace and LeBron James at the forward positions, two guys who are averaging 7.1 and 6.7 rebounds, respectively. Zydrunas Ilgauskas was also pulling down 7.1 boards per game before an injury has sidelined him for up to a month, but his replacement, Anderson Varejao, is putting up the same numbers in rebounding himself

By contrast, Lewis and Turkoglu average 6.2 and 5.4, respectively, the second- and third-highest totals on the team after Howard's 13.8. While the Magic have one elite rebounder surrounded by below-average rebounders, the Cavs are able to throw out a plethora of boarders who get after it and realize just how important team rebounding is to the team's success.

Cleveland also ranks no. 1 in average point differential, averaging a plus-11.8 point margin during their 27-6 start. Again, the Magic rank a distant fourth at plus-7.1 points. The Cavs are also seventh in points scored at 101.2 while the Magic are ninth at 100.6. The Cavaliers also check in third in the league in field goal percentage at 47.53 percent; Orlando is tied for ninth at 47.64 percent.

While the Magic are good in many categories, the Cavs are great and even exceptional in some. They also have one of the best scorers and difference-makers in the game in LeBron James, and this is a team that knows what it takes to get to the Finals, as they were there just two seasons ago. This is also the best team James has had around him in his career, and the Cavs' underrated team chemistry makes them considerably harder to beat over a seven-game series.

Orlando's time will come -- but not before they find a way to get to the Cavs' level of play. And until then, they'll have to settle for being referred to as "that other team."

Joe Boikess believes the Magic are the more likely choice:

Both Cleveland and Boston have powered through their schedule so far, piling up wins at a rate that this league hasn't seen in some time, and along with the L.A. Lakers, garnered most of the public's attention when it comes to identifying the true championship contenders. Yet the Orlando Magic, with a record of 26-8, sit only a game and a half behind the Cavs, and 2.5 games behind Boston. The statistics might favor Cleveland when comparing Boston's two prime contenders, but there are other areas where the Magic excel that the numbers don't show.

1. The Magic have the talent and depth to compete with Boston and Cleveland.

Casual basketball observers might argue that the Magic's prime talent starts and ends with Dwight Howard. That couldn't be further from the truth. They have two veteran, clutch perimeter threats in Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu, in addition to their point guard, Jameer Nelson, who has been garnering legitimate All-Star consideration with his excellent play. That's a solid "big four" that comes close to Boston's mighty foursome and can easily hang with Cleveland's core of James/Williams/West/Ilgauskas. Plus they have nice cast of athletic supporting players in Keith Bogans, Mickael Pietrus (who is currently injured but should be back before the playoffs), Courtney Lee and Tony Battie, not to mention the sharpshooting J.J. Redick at the end of the rotation. That's quality depth that few other teams can match.

2. Orlando knows how to win on the road.

The Magic's 12-5 road record is the league's best, and no other team has won 12 games on the road as of January 5. They already have wins at Utah, Portland and Dallas, and they will have a chance to further prove themselves on the road in a week when they begin a four game road trip out west. Sure, they have a 19-point loss in Boston on December 1 included in that record, but keep in mind that they were missing both Jameer Nelson and Mickael Pietrus in that game. They also have a solid 14-4 record against the West this year, and no other team from the East comes within five wins of that mark.

3. The Magic win close games

In games decided by three points or less, Orlando is 6-2, which is tied with the Spurs for the most wins in that category. Boston and Cleveland have combined to go only 2-1 in those games, having gotten the majority of their wins via blowouts. Close games are typically what the playoffs are made of, and Orlando clearly knows how to win them when it goes down to the wire.

Tags: Boston Celtics, Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA, Orlando Magic

Discussion

3 Comments on "NBA Great Debates: Which Team is More Likely to Dethrone Boston: Orlando or Cleveland?"

#1

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Posted by Zach Harper, January 7, 2009 4:11 PM

I love the fight that Joe puts up here but it's an uphill battle to an unbeatable degree.

The Cavs are clearly the better team here simply because of the way they play defense. That isn't to say that the Magic's new and improved defensive effort isn't impressive. But the Cavs have more depth, a better/more dominating star, and better role players.

Great stuff though, guys.

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#2

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Posted by Joe Boikess, January 7, 2009 11:37 PM

I did the best I could. Amar knows his Cavs better than most, but you're still right Zach, it wasn't exactly a fair fight...

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#3

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Posted by S-Dub, January 9, 2009 2:08 AM

I wouldn't exactly call JJ Reddick a sharp shooter seeing that he is shooting 35% from 3-point and 38% for his career.

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