The Next Five Games Will Determine Where Patriots Stand Among the Elite in the NFL

by btyman- on November 2, 2009

By Brendan Tyman

The New England Patriots currently stand atop the American Football Conference (AFC) East with a record of 5-2.

The Tennessee Titans (59-0) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (35-7) proved to be less than formidable foes. These next five contests will present challenges for the Patriots. They will play the Miami Dolphins (twice), Indianapolis Colts, New York Jets, and New Orleans Saints.

While New England has looked strong through their first seven games, there remain questions heading into the second half of the season.

Who will emerge as the third wide receiver? The Patriots tried to replace Jabar Gaffney with Joey Galloway, Greg Lewis, and Alex Smith. All three were released with Lewis and Smith getting cut before the season. Galloway was let go two weeks ago after being out of sync with Quarterback Tom Brady. Through two games, Galloway caught 7 passes for 67 yards. He dropped several passes thrown his way. Rookie third round selection Brandon Tate was activated in the Tampa Bay matchup after tearing his ACL and MCL last year at the University of North Carolina. He did not catch a pass and had one rush for 11 yards. Sam Aiken was the third leading wideout in the contest against the Bucs with 2 receptions for 66 yards, including one he turned into a 54 yard touchdown catch. Aiken caught the pass across the middle of the field and avoided a tackle by Buccaneers linebacker Barrett Ruud. He continued down the sideline into the end zone. There could be a rotation of receivers battling for the third spot, but Bill Belichick is going to give Tate time to catch up with the offense after being on the inactive list for the first six weeks of the season.

How will the young players on defense perform? Miami, Indianapolis, and New Orleans have good offenses. While Miami is starting a young quarterback in Chad Henne, their Wildcat formation continues to move the ball effectively during this year. Last season, Ronnie Brown and the Dolphins premiered the Wildcat against the Patriots and they ran all over New England. There are many new players on the Patriots defense, but they are faster. Will these new members, especially rookies Darius Butler, Pat Chung, and Myron Pryor all stay disciplined within the scheme to contain the Fins’ rushing attack? The Colts and Saints play on turf fields, but the crowds can be really loud in the domes. New England is 1-2 on the road this season and they cannot afford to take dumb penalties. In the overtime loss at Denver, safety Brandon Merriweather was flagged for taunting, which allowed the Broncos to get within the 15-yard line to even the contest.

Is Brady really back? Through the first five games of the 2009 season, the Patriots’ opponents did not have a loss. The majority of these squads all have great defenses. Brady was not playing to the standards before he tore his ACL and MCL in 2008. Brady ranked 28th on passes thrown 21 yards or longer based on passer rating. After torching Tennessee and Tampa Bay, Brady has the opportunity to redeem himself against top defenses in the league. Miami’s secondary is in shambles, but unlike the Titans, they do have their first round pick in Vontae Davis as their top corner. The Dolphins can still get pressure on opposing quarterbacks with linebacker Joey Porter and defensive end/linebacker Jason Taylor. They have a great front seven and they were able to contain the Jets’ top rushing attack in the NFL (3.2 yards per carry). Indianapolis has safety Bob Sanders back to lead the secondary. Colts defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis (14 combined sacks) are very tough to stop because the turf plays to their advantage with their explosive speed off the edge. New Orleans has been causing many turnovers (18) this season with Gregg Williams as their defensive coordinator. Safety Darren Sharper has picked off six passes and returned three back to the end zone. The New York Jets defense is physical and tough to score on. They have a shutdown corner in Darelle Revis and they can cause havoc in the pocket with Rex Ryan’s exotic blitzes.

Will future opponents copy what the Jets and Broncos did? The NFL is a copycat league. Many coaches and players watch tape to find future opponents’ weaknesses. The Patriots’ defense was exploited against Denver when they utilized the Wild Horses formation. They would split Kyle Orton out wide as a receiver and then adjust with Orton moving over to take the snap under center. This would force the New England defense into multiple adjustments and by the time, they were trying to makeshift their defensive formation, the ball would be snapped. Josh McDaniels had Orton throwing quick, short passes to offset the Patriots’ pass rush. In the defeat against the Jets, the Jets were able to create pressure and gave Brady little time to throw the ball before the pocket collapsed around Brady. New England’s offense is based on timing and when Brady has to get rid of the ball before the receivers reach the spots on the field, they will be in trouble.

Offensive Line? There are not too many units that have been as good as the Patriots’ offensive line, but in the last game against the Buccaneers on Oct. 25, the offensive line committed eight of the 10 accepted penalties. Left guard Logan Mankins had his worst performance of the season. Half of the penalties by the New England offensive line were infractions by Mankins. The running game was not successful and there were not any holes opened by the lineman. Laurence Maroney was the leading rusher (13 attempts for 43 yards). The team gained less than four yards per carry. Left tackle Matt Light suffered a right knee injury a few weeks ago in Denver. Rookie second round pick Sebastian Vollmer has taken over and has played fairly well in Light’s absence.

Running Back Depth? Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris are both out with injuries. This has left the Patriots with just three halfbacks in Maroney, Kevin Faulk, and BenJarvus Green-Ellis. Taylor had ankle surgery on Oct. 8 and the New England organization is hoping it is not season-ending. Taylor had ligament damage in his right ankle and he got hurt on his final carry during the victory over the Baltimore Ravens. He came up hobbling after running hard into the middle of Baltimore’s defense. As the weather gets colder, the Patriots will need to have a full complement of running backs to remain balanced offensively. The conditions may not be conducive to passing with the horrible wind chills that come during the winter in Foxborough.

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