MVN: Most Valuable Network

Fantasy Baseball 2009: Cleveland Signs P Carl Pavano

Last week, the Cleveland Indians signed free agent pitcher Carl Pavano to a one-year, $1.5 million contract, with the possibility for more money should he reach certain incentives in the deal.  Pavano had spent the previous four seasons with the New York Yankees.

Pavano's four years in New York were plagued by injuries.  He pitched in just 26 games during that time while battling elbow problems which led to Tommy John surgery and other issues, including a shoulder injury. 

Pavano has made just nine starts the past two seasons after not pitching at all in the majors during the 2006 season.  In his only season making more than seven starts for New York, in 2005, he went 4-6 with a 4.77 ERA and 100 IP in 17 starts.  His best major league season came in 2004 with the Florida Marlins, as he went 18-8 with a 3.00 ERA while pitching 222 1/3 innings in 31 starts.  That season helped him get a four-year, $39.55 million contract from the Yankees in December 2004.

Pavano is expected to be in the Indians' starting rotation, most likely in the number three spot behind 2008 AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee and Fausto Carmona.  Fellow starter Jake Westbrook is scheduled to return in June from his own Tommy John surgery during the 2008 season as well as hip surgery last fall, which may bump Pavano down a spot in the rotation. 

If he can be healthy, which is obviously a big if considering his recent history, Pavano could help the Indians return to contention in the AL Central this season.  Moving from New York to the more pitcher-friendly Progressive Field should help him to be more successful, as should having two-time Gold Glove CF Grady Sizemore patrolling the outfield.  Run support should not be an issue if DH Travis Hafner and C Victor Martinez can return to their previous form after injury marred 2008 seasons.

It is tough to project Pavano to make 30 starts, but if he does he could get double-digit wins.  He won't walk many hitters, but his lack of dominant velocity has kept his strikeouts down in the past when he has pitched enough for the stats to show trends with much accuracy.  The fact he has just turned 33 years old makes it unlikely that his pitching style will change much now. The biggest question with him will always be his health.  On draft day, there are plenty of better options to consider as one of your last starting pitchers before thinking about adding Pavano.  His upside is limited, even if he stays healthy.

Fantasy Baseball 2009: Atlanta Signs P Derek Lowe

According to multiple reports, the Atlanta Braves have agreed to terms with free agent P Derek Lowe on a four-year, $60 million deal.  He will join Javier Vazquez and possibly Japanese import Kenshin Kawakami in a refurbished Braves' starting rotation.

In 2008 with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Lowe went 14-11 with a 3.24 ERA in 211 innings pitched.  He has been very consistent, as he has made at least 32 starts every season since 2002 and has had an ERA below 4.00 in each of the last four seasons.  He has also topped 200 innings pitched in five of the last seven seasons, and had 199 IP in one of the others.  Pitching at Dodger Stadium was kind to him last season, as he had a 2.30 ERA and nine wins at home.

Lowe looks likely to be the Braves' number two starter, behind Vazquez.  He may also have an impact as a veteran leader for young Atlanta hurlers Jair Jurrjens, Jorge Campillo and Jo-Jo Reyes.  Lowe will definitely provide a consistent veteran starter to a rotation that will be missing John Smoltz, Tom Glavine, and Tim Hudson (in Hudson's case, for at least most of this season).

From a fantasy perspective, Lowe is moving from a pitcher's haven to a slightly more neutral home field at Turner Field.  It is also possible that age will start to catch up to him since he will turn 36 during the 2009 season. 

That being said, I project Lowe to make 30 or more starts, get 12-15 wins with an ERA around 3.50 this season.  Those numbers would make him a solid No. 2 starter for your fantasy squad.  I do question the ability of the Braves' offense to be consistently productive, and that could hamper Lowe's win total some.

Fantasy Baseball 2009: Trevor Hoffman Signs with the Brewers

Last week, the Milwaukee Brewers signed long-time San Diego Padres' closer Trevor Hoffman to a one-year, $6 million deal.  Hoffman addresses Milwaukee's need for a reliable closer after the retirement of Salomon Torres.

Hoffman is the major league's all-time saves leader with 554.  At 41 years of age, Hoffman's prime is definitely behind him.  But in 2008, he had 30 saves (in 34 chances) with a 3.77 ERA and K/BB ratio over five.  His save opportunities were limited by the fact the Padres struggled last season, so pitching for a contender could lead to a few more saves.  Most of Hoffman's peripheral numbers improved from 2007 last season, so that's a positive sign even at his advanced age.

The Brewers, despite losing CC Sabathia in free agency, should be a contender in the NL Central.  Primarily setting up Hoffman should be newly acquired Jorge Julio and young Carlos Villanueva.  A starting rotation now led by young potential ace Yovani Gallardo has a chance to get plenty of leads to the bullpen.

From a fantasy perspective, Hoffman should be able to top 30 saves as long as he can remain healthy.  His ERA probably won't hurt you, as it could be somewhere around 3.50.  Hoffman is also likely to be undervalued on draft day, and could be a cheap source for nice save numbers this season.  But do be aware that the move to the more hitter-friendly Miller Park from the very pitcher-friendly PETCO Park could effect Hoffman.  Securing another solid closer would be a prudent move on draft day 

Fantasy Baseball: Top 120 Breakdown (1-12)

1. HANLEY RAMIREZ, SS - FLA

• The Florida Marlins leadoff hitter is stellar in BA, HR, R and SB and only lags in RBI because of his lineup position. His .239 Isolated Power (ISO) was the highest in the game for a SS in 2008, his FB%+HR/FB ratios (36.7+19.2) and BABIP (.332) all indicate that his numbers are sustainable and his BB/K of 0.75 was excellent. He is only 25, but he already has three years of experience. Virtually the consensus number one pick.

2. ALEX RODRIGUEZ, 3B - NYY

• He had a "down" year in 2008 by A-Rod standards, but he still managed to have strong numbers across the board. He is the best pure power hitter among all third basemen, but he could stand to walk a little more (only 65 BB in 2008). At 33 years of age we have to expect a slowdown at some point, but 2009 is not going to be that year. You know exactly what you are getting and it is tremendous value at an important position.

3. ALBERT PUJOLS, 1B - STL

• Probably the best pure hitter in the game, Pujols again posted phenomenal numbers despite preseason fears of an injured elbow. Led all of baseball in ISO (.296), BB/K (1.93) and OPS (1.114). His .357 batting average might have been slightly inflated by a .346 BABIP, but a small decline in his BA would do little to diminish his overall value. You should not count on more than 5 SB -- any more would be a bonus. He will be 29 years-old in 2009 and is at the peak of his game.
  

4. DAVID WRIGHT, 3B - NYM

• Slightly more productive than A-Rod in 2008, Wright is a balanced hitter who already has five years of service time at the age of 26. He takes walks at an excellent rate (0.80 BB/K), steals bases effectively (though some have speculated that his SB totals could dip in 2009) and has good power ratios in FB%+HR/FB. A .328 BABIP was low for Wright in 2008, so his BA could be due to rise in 2009. I like Wright over Jose Reyes because he is a true five-category performer.

5. JOSE REYES, SS - NYM

• The Mets young speedster will turn 26 in 2009 and is just coming into his peak skill years. His BB/K ratio fell from an elite 0.99 in 2007 to a merely good 0.80 in 2008 and his BABIP has never shown much consistency from one season to the next; as a result, look for his batting average to fall around .290 in 2009. His main value comes in the form of stolen bases though and that shows no signs of falling off. His stolen base success rate (SB%) has been right around 79 percent in all four seasons. Reyes owners can pencil him in for 50 to 70 SBs.

6. MIGUEL CABRERA, 1B - DET

• Cabrera took some time to warm up out of the gate, but he had a terrific second half. Already with six years of service at the young age of 26, Cabrera is one of the best power hitters in the game. He took fewer walks (56) than in any season since his abbreviated 2003 debut, but his power ratios were right in line with his career numbers. A .316 BABIP was also the lowest of his career and portends a rise in his batting average for 2009. A stat line of .320/40/120/100/5 is not out of the question this season.

7. GRADY SIZEMORE, OF - CLE

• The first outfielder to make the rankings does so because of his 30/30 season in 2008. Though his .268 batting average was nothing special, Sizemore's peripherals show a hitter who continues to improve. His BB/K has risen in every full season of his career, his K% fell dramatically last season and his .291 BABIP (much lower than his career .324 BABIP) in 2008 could mean a big jump in batting average for 2009. His HR/FB ratio took a big jump in '08 so expect fewer dingers in '09, but pay full value for this stud.

8. JIMMY ROLLINS, SS - PHI

• Admittedly, Rollins had a bit of an off year in 2008. Time lost to injury contributed to his weakest season statistically since 2003, despite the fact that he achieved a career high in SBs (helped by an otherworldly 94.0 SB%). But with elite shortstops in low supply and his 2007 MVP season a recent memory, we are forced to give J-Roll a mulligan for his 2008 campaign. The good news is that his 1.05 BB/K in '08 was the highest of his career and his career-low 30.6 FB% is almost certain to rise again. Count on a 16-20 home runs, 100+ runs and 35+ SBs.

9. MARK TEIXEIRA, 1B - NYY

• Big Tex joins the Evil Empire and brings his AAA reliability with him. In the last five seasons, Teixeira has batted over .300 and scored 100+ runs thrice and has hit 30+ home runs and driven in 100+ RBIs in all five years. Also, he has only been DL'ed twice for 50 total days in that period. To top it off, now he gets to bat in the middle of the Yankees ridiculous lineup. If you want a consistent player with a minimum of risk in the first round, look no further than Teixeira.

10. BRANDON WEBB, SP - ARI

• There will probably not be a single fantasy league in which Webb will be taken in the first round. I would also be willing to bet that he is not the first pitcher chosen. But if you want a rock solid arm who you can plug into your lineup on Opening Day and who will be there to the end, take Webb. Five straight seasons of 200+ innings. Six straight seasons of 164+ strikeouts. A career 64.3 GB%. His 2.82 K/BB in 2008 was dominant and yet it was only the third-highest of his career. He will turn 30 in '09 and he has never been on the disabled list. Take him in the third round after Santana, Lincecum and Sabathia have left the board.

11. RYAN BRAUN, OF - MIL

• Count me among the naysayers who thought Braun would come back down to Earth in 2008 after his insane rookie season. So much for that. Braun showed maturity as a hitter as he walked more (6.4 BB%), struck out less (21.1 K%) and improved his game across the board. His batting average fell to .285 as his BABIP regressed from an unsustainable .367 in '07 to a more reasonable .308 in '08. Even his HR/FB ratio came down in '08, but that did not stop him from slugging 37 bombs. All told, Braun is virtually a lock for a .290 batting average, 30+ home runs, 90 runs, 100 RBIs and 12-18 SBs.

12. JOHAN SANTANA, SP - NYM

• Last season Santana had his lowest K% since 2001 and highest BB% since 2003. His fastball velocity has declined in each of the last four seasons. Should you still draft him? Absolutely. Even a slightly less effective Santana is one of the most dominant pitchers in the game. His consistency is attractive also: 200+ innings, 200+ strikeouts and 16+ wins in five consecutive seasons is the juice you get with the squeeze. At 30 years-old he still has plenty of gas in the tank, so take him in the early- to mid-second round if you want a top arm.
  

Fantasy Baseball: Top 120

The fantasy baseball preseason is just now kicking into high gear, so it seems a good time to come back with my Top 120. I know that 120 seems like a strange number, but I have chosen it because it corresponds roughly with the first ten rounds of a standard fantasy baseball draft. I should also note that these rankings were built with a standard, 12-team, 5x5, Rotisserie format in mind.

Over the next few weeks I am going to go through each round (12 players at a time) and discuss why I believe each player deserves the ranking I gave them. Keep in mind that this list is not necessarily intended as a draft day cheat sheet. Rather, my intention is to simply rank the players as I see them. DO NOT assume that I am recommending that you draft these players at the spot where I have ranked them. Different leagues will value players differently and you must adjust accordingly.

I also have a tendency to rank pitchers more highly than others in the fantasy community. The conventional wisdom is that pitchers are too unreliable to risk high draft picks and, generally, I agree with that. However, considering the value that pitchers deliver to fantasy teams, I believe it is folly to not give the top pitchers more respect in fantasy rankings. Take that with a grain of salt when you read over this list.

1. Hanley Ramirez, SS - FLA
2. Alex Rodriguez, 3B - NYY
3. Albert Pujols, 1B - STL
4. David Wright, 3B - NYM
5. Jose Reyes, SS - NYM
6. Miguel Cabrera, 1B - DET
7. Grady Sizemore, OF - CLE
8. Jimmy Rollins, SS - PHI
9. Mark Teixeira, 1B - NYY
10. Brandon Webb, SP - ARI
11. Ryan Braun, OF - MIL
12. Johan Santana, SP - NYM
13. Ryan Howard, 1B - PHI
14. Ian Kinsler, 2B - TEX
15. Josh Hamilton, OF - TEX
16. Tim Lincecum, SP - SF
17. Evan Longoria, 3B - TB
18. Carlos Beltran, OF - NYM
19. Jake Peavy, SP - SD
20. Carlos Quentin, OF - CHW
21. Lance Berkman, 1B - HOU
22. Prince Fielder, 1B - MIL
23. CC Sabathia, SP - NYY
24. Matt Holliday, OF - OAK
25. Jason Bay, OF - BOS
26. Chase Utley, 2B - PHI
27. Justin Morneau, 1B - MIN
28. Manny Ramirez, OF - LAD
29. Roy Halladay, SP - TOR
30. Carlos Lee, OF - HOU
31. Dustin Pedroia, 2B - BOS
32. Nick Markakis, OF - BAL
33. Mariano Rivera, RP - NYY
34. B.J. Upton, OF - TB
35. Alfonso Soriano, OF - CHC
36. Brian McCann, C - ATL
37. Aramis Ramirez, 3B - CHC
38. Cole Hamels, SP - PHI
39. Brandon Phillips, 2B - CIN
40. Josh Beckett, SP - BOS
41. Carl Crawford, OF - TB
42. David Ortiz, DH - BOS
43. Russell Martin, C - LAD
44. Dan Haren, SP - ARI
45. Jonathan Papelbon, RP - BOS
46. Nate McLouth, OF - PIT
47. Brian Roberts, 2B - BAL
48. Francisco Rodriguez, RP - NYM
49. Joe Mauer, C - MIN
50. Kevin Youkilis, 1B/3B - BOS
51. Ichiro Suzuki, OF - SEA
52. Geovany Soto, C - CHC
53. Curtis Granderson, OF - DET
54. Joe Nathan, RP - MIN
55. Roy Oswalt, SP - HOU
56. Chad Billingsley, SP - LAD
57. Adrian Gonzalez, 1B - SD
58. Cliff Lee, SP - CLE
59. Ervin Santana, SP - LAA
60. Adam Dunn, OF - ARI
61. Felix Hernandez, SP - SEA
62. Vladimir Guerrero, OF - LAA
63. Shane Victorino, OF - PHI
64. John Lackey, SP - LAA
65. Dan Uggla, 2B - FLA
66. Jon Lester, SP - BOS
67. Jacoby Ellsbury, OF - BOS
68. Magglio Ordonez, OF - DET
69. Troy Tulowitzki, SS - COL
70. Brad Lidge, RP - PHI
71. Alexei Ramirez, 2B - CHW
72. Scott Kazmir, SP - TB
73. Matt Kemp, OF - LAD
74. James Shields, SP - TB
75. Alex Rios, OF - TOR
76. Stephen Drew, SS - ARI
77. Corey Hart, OF - MIL
78. Daisuke Matsuzaka, SP - BOS
79. Joakim Soria, RP - KC
80. Chipper Jones, 3B - ATL
81. Ryan Ludwick, OF - STL
82. Carlos Pena, 1B - TB
83. Robinson Cano, 2B - NYY
84. Rafael Furcal, SS - LAD
85. Chien-Ming Wang, SP - NYY
86. Joey Votto, 1B - CIN
87. Victor Martinez, C - CLE
88. Chris Davis, 3B/1B - TEX
89. Edinson Volquez, SP - CIN
90. Michael Young, SS - TEX
91. Carlos Zambrano, SP - CHC
92. Aubrey Huff, 1B/3B - BAL
93. Derrek Lee, 1B - CHC
94. Hunter Pence, OF - HOU
95. Rich Harden, SP - CHC
96. Garrett Atkins, 3B - COL
97. A.J. Burnett, SP - NYY
98. J.J. Hardy, SS - MIL
99. Francisco Liriano, SP - MIN
100. Derek Jeter, SS - NYY
101. Chris Young, OF - ARI
102. Bobby Abreu, OF - NYY
103. Bobby Jenks, RP - CHW
104. Ryan Zimmerman, 3B - WAS
105. Jhonny Peralta, SS - CLE
106. Ricky Nolasco, SP - FLA
107. Chone Figgins, 3B - LAA
108. Vernon Wells, OF - TOR
109. Kerry Wood, RP - CLE
110. Jermaine Dye, OF - CHW
111. Adam Wainwright, SP - STL
112. Carlos Delgado, 1B - NYM
113. Jay Bruce, OF - CIN
114. Andre Ethier, OF - LAD
115. James Loney, 1B - LAD
116. Jose Valverde, RP - HOU
117. Miguel Tejada, SS - HOU
118. Zack Greinke, SP - KC
119. Ben Sheets, SP - MIL
120. Justin Verlander, SP - DET

Fantasy Baseball 2009: Oakland A's Bring Back Jason Giambi

Earlier this week, the Oakland Athletics signed 1B/DH Jason Giambi to a one-year deal with a club option for 2010.  Giambi is reported to be getting a $4 million base salary for this season, while the option is worth $6.5 million and features a $1.25 million buyout.  Giambi can also earn more if he reaches certain performance incentives in the deal. 

Giambi spent his first seven major league seasons in Oakland before signing a lucrative deal with the New York Yankees before the 2002 season.  He has the 2000 AL MVP while playing for the A's, as he hit .333 with 43 HR and 137 RBI that year.  He followed that up in 2001 with another terrific year, when he hit .342 with 38 HR and 120 RBI and finished second in the AL MVP voting.  That performance over back-to-back seasons led to his moving on to New York.

Giambi struggled some in recent seasons with the Yankees, as he never hit above .271 and only topped 100 RBI once in the last five seasons.  Injuries became an issue for him, and being at the center of some of the steroid controversy may have become a distraction.  .

Giambi had somewhat of a bounceback season in 2008, as he hit 32 HR and had 96 RBI while playing in 145 games.  He played 113 games at 1B last season, and he topped 450 at-bats for the first time since 2003.  2008 was the only season he played over 100 games at 1B with New York. 

Giambi will not help you in batting average, as he hit only .247 in 2008 and has not topped .300 since 2002.  He also does strikeout a lot, having topped 100 strikeouts in each of the last five seasons in which he has played more than 100 games.

Coming back to Oakland, and closer to where he grew up, may be good for Giambi.  He joins a lineup that includes newly acquired LF Matt Holliday, RF/DH Jack Cust, 3B Eric Chavez (assuming he's healthy) and 2B Mark Ellis.  He will probably serve primarily as the A's DH, while occasionally playing some 1B in relief of young Daric Barton. 

I project Giambi to hit somewhere around 25-30 HR and drive in around 85-90 runs.  Do look elsewhere for a good batting average, as he will probably only hit around .250.  Don't expect Giambi to return to the production levels of his prime years, as he just turned 38 years old.  But, he is possibly going to be undervalued in your draft and could be a solid power hitter if he can stay healthy.  

Fantasy Baseball 2009: Chicago Cubs Sign OF Milton Bradley

The Chicago Cubs signed OF/DH Milton Bradley to a three-year, $30 million deal this week.  The switch-hitting Bradley is expected to play RF for the Cubs, with Kosuke Fukudome shifting to CF.

Bradley spent 2008 with the Texas Rangers, and led the American League in on-base percentage at .436.  He also set career highs with 22 HR and 77 RBI as well as total bases with 233.  Bradley also tied his career high with a .321 batting average.  He should fit well into was is a pretty good Cubs lineup.

The issues with Bradley start with his personality.  The Cubs will be his fourth team in as many seasons, so it seems he tends to wear out his welcome.  He has had on-field issues with fans and umpires during his career.

The second, and bigger in my opinion, issue with Bradley is health.  He never spent any time on the DL last season, but did battle some nagging injuries after spending 239 days on the disabled list from 2005-2007.  Also, over the past two seasons he has played just 58 (2007) and 20 (2008) games in the outfield and he has only played more than 100 games in the outfield once in his career.  In the National League, he will not have the DH spot to give him playing time and preserve his health.

Bradley would seem likely to bat fifth in the Cubs' lineup behind LF Alfonso Soriano, CF Fukudome, 1B Derek Lee and 3B Aramis Ramirez.  That situation, provided everyone stays healthy, should provide him with plenty of opportunities to produce.  If he can stay healthy and get 400 or more at-bats, Bradley should be able to hit around 20 HRs, drive in 80 and hit around .290.  But do be cautious on draft day due to the uncertainty about whether playing in the field every day will limit his effectiveness at the plate. 

Fantasy Baseball: Evaluating Hitters

It's not just chicks who dig the long ball -- fantasy baseball managers get all gaga over them too. They like them for entirely different reasons, but, sadly, since this blog is about fantasy baseball and not ladies with "long legs and brains," I will confine myself to that group which I know best. For those of you now in the mood for some estrogenic stimulation, head over to the Babes Love Baseball blog for a healthy dose.

As I was saying, fantasy leaguers have a fondness for home runs that approaches the pathological. This is due to the fact that a home run helps us in four of the major scoring categories: home runs (duh!), RBIs, runs and batting average. Additionally, if there was a category for sexiness, home runs would be worth a touchdown while everything else was worth a free throw (OK, strikeouts would be worth a safety).

But as man cannot live by bread alone, so must fantasy leaguers find balance in their statistical diets. Since the David Wrights and Grady Sizemores of the world are exceptionally rare, we have to seek that balance throughout the rest of our lineups. The baseball world is littered with sluggers like Dave Kingman, who do little but smash bombs, or thieves like Hugh Nicol, who don't do anything but steal bases, so it behooves us to find guys who have all-around talent. I know, easier said than done, but this article is intended as your road map to doing just that.

Last week I discussed the main statistical categories that can be used to evaluate a hitter's skills. Now it's time to discuss the process itself, but keep in mind that none of these stats should be considered in isolation. The best analysis will take all the numbers into account to paint a broader picture of a player's abilities and potential.

Let us first start with the popular on-base plus slugging (OPS) stat. In short, unless a guy with an OPS below .700 has something like 50 stolen bases, then his fantasy value is probably extremely limited depending on the format. OPS is a composite statistic that measures both a player's ability to get on base and his ability to hit for extra bases. Therefore, an OPS below .700 represents a skill set that is poor to moderate in getting on base with virtually no power.

By contrast, anyone who can muster an OPS over 1.000 is demonstrating Hall-of-Fame skills (six inactive players finished their careers with an OPS over 1.000 - Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Jimmie Foxx, Hank Greenberg and Rogers Hornsby... need I say more?). But it is one thing to have a plus-1.000 OPS for your career and another to do it for one week. I tend to look at what a player has done over a two to three week period (10 to 20 games) to get a sense of their potential fantasy value.

If a hitter can maintain a .700 to 1.000 OPS for more than 10 games, then he might be of use to your fantasy squad. The tricky thing is that if he starts slugging lots of homers in a short period of time, other players in your league will pick up on it and acquire his services before you can. However, a lot of batters can fly under the radar before they snag a lot of attention by hitting occasional homers accompanied by bunches of doubles. These are the top in-season breakout candidates we want to keep our eyes on.

Another indicator of potential value is contained within a player's walk-to-strikeout ratio (BB/K). We are looking for a high number from this stat as anything over 1.0 tells us of a hitter who walks more often than he strikes out. A BB/K over 1.0 is hard to come by though, as only nine qualifying batters finished 2008 with a plus-1.0 BB/K. Still, anything over 0.70 is considered very good.

Despite the fact that walks do not usually correlate directly to fantasy value, a player who walks a lot is a patient hitter. In general, patient hitters tend towards having higher batting averages and greater overall fantasy value. For example, of the 47 qualifying hitters who finished 2008 with a BB/K of 0.70 or higher, only five had an OPS below .705. Any hitter who can maintain something near a 0.70 BB/K over a two to three week period deserves consideration in fantasy leagues.

Next on our checklist of evaluative statistics is batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Similar to BABIP for pitchers, the league average BABIP for hitters is usually around .300. Any particular hitter's divergence from that is sometimes taken as a sign of an unusually lucky batter who is due for either more or less hits. The difference between BABIP for pitchers and batters, however, is that hitters are thought to have more control over theirs.

Truly gifted hitters like Manny Ramirez (2008 BABIP = .373), Albert Pujols (.346) and Ichiro Suzuki (.337) will almost always be able to maintain BABIPs above .300 because of their skill in hitting balls "where they ain't." Speed demons like Matt Kemp (.363), Brian Roberts (.345), Chone Figgins (.333) and Jose Reyes (.319) will also usually beat the league average because they can run out groundballs with their legs.

So while a high or low BABIP from a hitter is not necessarily a sign of a player due for a correction, it is a warning sign that one could be coming. The safe range for BABIP is thought to be around .280 to .320. Too low means that the player's batting average could be due to rise; too high could mean that it's due to fall. Invest accordingly.

Finally, a player's flyball rate (FB%) in relation to his home run to flyball ratio (HR/FB) is a stat that we should eye carefully. Most big time power hitters will hit around 40 percent (40 FB%) or more of their batted balls in the air. If just 15 percent of those balls leave the yard (15 HR/FB), then we could be talking about 30 home runs or more from your average hitter. For instance, in 2008 Prince Fielder had a 40.3 FB%, an 18.2 HR/FB and 34 home runs (a 15.0 HR/FB would have meant 28 HRs from young Prince).

What we want to look for is young players with a history of power in the minor leagues who have yet to break out. A good example would be Alex Gordon. A masher in college and the minors, Gordon had a 47.6 FB% accompanied by a meager 8.9 HR/FB in 2008; the result was only 16 home runs. If Gordon continues to hit flyballs at his 2008 pace but increases his HR/FB, we could be talking about a guy who could approach 22 to 28 home runs (if not more). The key is the high FB% he has already attained along with the history of a higher HR/FB.

Is Alex Gordon going to break out in 2009? I do not know for sure, but I do know that from 2007 to 2008, Gordon improved his OPS, BB/K and BABIP (still within the safe range) and hit more fly balls with a better HR/FB. The potential for his breakout in '09 has me willing to invest a 12th round pick in his services. I would strongly advise that you do the same.

These stats I have listed here are but a few examples of how we can evaluate talent for fantasy purposes utilizing the math. There are others to look at, but I picked my favorites for this piece. Stay tuned to MVN Fantasy Outsider for the rest of the preseason and after Opening Day for all the best fantasy analysis.

Fantasy Baseball 2009: Rays Sign OF Pat Burrell

On Monday, the defending American League champion Tampa Bay Rays signed former Philadelphia Phillies OF Pat Burrell to a two-year, $16 million deal.

Burrell should serve as the Rays' primary DH and provide a powerful right-handed bat in the middle of their lineup.  Last year for the Phillies, he had 33 HR and 86 RBI along with a .507 slugging percentage.  2008 was the fourth straight season Burrell had slugging percentage over .500.

Burrell joins a potentially very good Tampa Bay lineup that includes 1B Carlos Pena, LF Carl Crawford, CF B.J. Upton and 2008 AL Rookie of the Year 3B Evan Longoria.  He looks likely to bat fifth in the order, behind Crawford, Upton, Longoria and Pena.  2B Akinori Iwamura is in the mix as well to possibly bat first or second, which would change things slightly above Burrell. But no matter what, Burrell should be in a position to be productive.  Crawford and Upton both had injury problems last season which sapped some of their productivity, but they are just 27 and 24 respectively and should rebound this season.

From a fantasy perspective, Burrell will not help you much in batting average.  He has just a .257 career average and has only topped .260 twice in his career.  He also strikes out a lot, having at least 120 Ks in every season of his major league career, but has also topped 100 walks in each of the past two seasons. 

Where Burrell will help the most is in the power numbers.  He has hit at least 30 HRs in three of the last four seasons, and he hit 29 in the other.  Also, 2008 was the first season since 2004 that Burrell did not drive in at least 95,

Moving away from the hitter-friendly confines of Citizen's Bank Park may bring Burrell's HR numbers down, but that could lead to more doubles.  He also may get off to a slow start, since he will be adjusting to a new league and a new role as a primary DH.  That said, projecting Burrell for 25-30 HRs and 90 or more RBIs seems reasonable.  At still just 32 years old, he could provide a decent value on draft day.  Just make sure you get good batting average from elsewhere on your roster.

Fantasy Baseball: Evaluating Pitchers

Fantasy baseball newbies often wonder why pitchers are not drafted more highly. In a typical serpentine draft it is not unusual to see the first pitcher taken as deep as the late first or early second round. From there a slow trickle will ensue until all the first and second tier pitchers do not leave the draft board until the early middle rounds. By contrast, there will not be a first tier batter available after the early second round. Why the discrepancy?

The problem with pitchers from a fantasy perspective is that they are more injury-prone than batters and their performance is more unpredictable. Despite the fact that the top pitchers will often finish the season as the highest-scoring components of many fantasy teams, we continue to draft them lower than batters. Apart from their fragility and unpredictability, the biggest reason for this is the ease with which pitchers may be acquired within the course of the season.

Thirty major league teams with five-man starting rotations will use at least 150 starting pitchers throughout the course of a season. Additionally, if each team has one closer and one setup man, that makes for approximately 60 relief pitchers with some fantasy value. There is no other position in the game that has those kind of raw numbers. That means that there will be a lot of pitchers on the free agent waiver wire during the course of a fantasy campaign.

In all fairness, most of the arms available for pickup during the season will have little to no fantasy value. However, amongst all those duds will be a few studs that smart fantasy players can identify and acquire. This article is intended as a primer in how to do so.

Last week I went over the various statistics that we can use to evaluate pitchers. Now let us take that knowledge and apply it in the form of a lesson in what to look for from pitchers who are available on your league's waiver wire.

All of a pitcher's stats have something to say about their respective value, but only a few contain the critical clues within the puzzle. To keep things simple for now, my favorites are WHIP, strikeout rate (K%), strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB) and BABIP. WHIP tells us how good the pitcher is at keeping runners off base. K% tells us how good he is at preventing contact. K/BB is an indicator of the pitcher's relative level of control. BABIP tells us if he has been lucky or unlucky and whether or not he could be due for a correction.

When evaluating a pitcher's WHIP, I am actually more interested in seeing how many walks he has given up. Even the best pitcher is going to give up a hit every now and then, but walks are much more within the control of the guy on the mound. Nothing will send an ERA higher than a pitcher who gives too many free passes -- they will catch up to him sooner or later. If you see an available starting pitcher who has a sub-1.25 WHIP over three or four starts or a reliever with a sub-1.10 WHIP over six to ten appearances, that should be reason enough to flag him as a possible pickup.

Strikeout rate comes next in the process. Even though strikeouts are fascist (thank you Crash Davis) and they make pitchers throw a lot of pitches, batters who strike out have no chance to do anything damaging to a pitcher's numbers. For that reason, a pitcher who can maintain a decent K% has potential fantasy value across the board. A starting pitcher with a K% in the range of 6.0 to 8.0 over three to four starts or a relief pitcher with a K% in the range of 7.0 to 10.0 over at least six to ten appearances is a candidate for acquisition.

Regarding strikeout-to-walk ratio, a high number signifies a pitcher with outstanding control of his arsenal. To get a 2.0 K/BB, a hurler must have at least twice as many strikeouts as walks. That means fewer baserunners and less chances for damage. Any pitcher who can maintain a K/BB over 2.0 across three starts or six appearances has to be considered as an addition to your team.

BABIP is kind of a luck indicator that can tell us whether or not a pitcher's numbers are fraudulent. Since BABIP only measures hits on balls that are actually contacted and do not leave as home runs, it can help us understand if a pitcher is simply suffering from too many bloop hits falling in or if he is enjoying a run of balls headed right at his fielders.

The league average BABIP is usually around .300, so a pitcher with a BABIP that is either much higher or much lower could be due for a correction. A high BABIP means that a lot of hits are falling in and the pitcher's numbers are likely suffering; he could be due for some better outings. A low BABIP means that fewer hits are falling in and the pitcher's numbers could be artificially low.

I do not believe that any of these statistics should be examined by themselves when you are evaluating talent. Prudent fantasy owners will take into account all available information and make judgments based on it. But all of these unconventional stats examined as a whole should help to tell the story of a pitcher's abilities.

To weave all of this together, let us look at a real example of a fine pickup for many fantasy owners in 2008. Ricky Nolasco went undrafted in virtually every fantasy league last season, but he finished the year with a 15-8 record, a 3.52 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 186 strikeouts in 212 1/3 innings pitched. He started the year roughly, but from May 9 to May 31 Nolasco had five straight starts in which he compiled a 1.23 WHIP, a 7.06 K%, a 2.1 K/BB and a .269 BABIP.

Depending on how much roster space you had available on May 31, picking up Nolasco might have been a good idea on that date. Despite the .269 BABIP serving as a danger sign that maybe he had just been getting lucky (he finished the year with a .273 BABIP), the rest of his numbers screamed that he was a good in-season pickup. In fact, you would have done well to get him in late May, because he went on an absolute tear from June 10 to July 12 in which he went 5-0 with a 1.95 ERA, a 0.81 WHIP and 48 strikeouts in only 50 2/3 innings. By the end of that streak he was probably unavailable in all but the shallowest leagues.

Evaluating pitchers is an inexact science at best. But since half of a fantasy league's points are determined by pitchers, it is absolutely essential that we learn to do so effectively. As with the Nolasco example, sometimes you have to ignore little warning signs and go with the rest of a pitcher's numbers. If you had done so at the beginning of June you would have gotten one of the best pitchers in the National League last season for practically nothing.