MVN: Most Valuable Network

December 1, 2008

Could Orioles make Peavy trade happen?

According to Jeff Zrebiec and Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun, (I bet poor Peter got razzed in junior high for that last name) the Baltimore Orioles may be the third team that San Diego Padres' GM Kevin Towers needed in order to ship Jake Peavy to the Chicago Cubs.

Towers is looking for young pitchers and hitters in return for Peavy and while the Cubs can offer third base prospect Josh Vitters, they don't have the pitching needed to make the deal on their own.

Enter the Orioles, who last year almost matched up with the Cubs on a deal involving second baseman Brian Roberts heading to Chicago for, amongst other things, centerfielder Felix Pie. Club president Andy McPhail acknowledged that the Orioles are looking at Pie as a way to bolster their depth in outfield.

Pie, 23, supposed to be the future long-term centerfielder for the Cubs, has struggled these last two years in opportunities in the bigs. In his major league career, he has totaled 260 at-bats with a line of .223/.284/.331. Pretty rough, but in Triple-A Iowa in 2008, he logged 335 at-bats and hit .287/.336/.466. He had a much better year in Iowa the year before, slugging .362/.410/.563 in 229 at-bats, so the potential is there.

Pie could be installed as the full-time left-fielder in Baltimore, with Luke Scott shifting to DH and Aubrey Huff getting his reps in at first. This would afford the Orioles an opportunity to plug an additional hole with a high-impact player and focus on their shortstop and starting pitching holes through free agency.

The main piece that would be needed to get Pie is left-handed starter Garrett Olson, who I saw play at Camden Yards this summer.

Olson, 25, has a career 6.87 ERA for the Orioles in 165 innings (33 starts). In the minors, he holds a career 2.95 ERA in 384.1 innings. Olson, a Southern California native, is said to be coveted by Towers and would certainly benefit from Petco Park.

Is this a move the Orioles should make? For all their pitching troubles, is Pie worth moving Olson and strengthening the Cubs by allowing them to land Peavy?

I say yes. The famous adage goes something like this: "There Is No Such Thing As A Pitching Prospect" (TINSTAAPP), coined largely because pitchers are very unpredictable in virtually every aspect of the game -- effectiveness, injury, etc... just look at Clay Buchholz compared from 2007 to 2008.

Pie would give one of the league's best offensive teams another weapon to contend with. More importantly, he would be yet another young, high-ceiling player for the Orioles to build around. Olson is not that type of centerpiece.

Whether or not the Orioles get to sign A.J. Burnett or Mark Teixeira (which would likely push Pie into a platoon role, unless they were to deal Huff) should be irrelevant to this deal. The Orioles should focus on adding the young, high-impact players that they will need if they plan on competing in the ultra-tough division of the American League East.

November 29, 2008

Top Prospect Profile: Ben Revere

November 28, 2008

Hot Stove Dishes - November 28, 2008

The latest buzz served up from baseball's Hot Stove League.  Ten of the hottest stories, moves and rumors from the past week:

• Mark Teixeira, CC Sabathia -- the L.A. Angels "shell game" continues.
  The Angels haven't made an offer to Mark Teixeira even though they want him but have floated the idea of offering big money to CC Sabathia -- even though it might be tough to match the Yankees' gigantic offer -- and Teixeira's side has countered.  Teixeira's agent Scott Boras revealed that Teixeira has had offers worth considering.  All of the peripheral talk from the Angels about Sabathia as an alternative target and Teixeira's interest from other clubs stems from a difference in years of service the club is looking to give Teixeira and the 10 years that the slugger is seeking.  You got to love the Hot Stove posturing, don't you?
• Brian Fuentes wants major cash and K-Rod doesn't want to talk until the Winter Meetings... the Mets are no closer to a closer.
  The Mets are ready to get going with filling their needs and the most glaring one is the anchor of the bullpen, the closer.  Unfortunately, their two biggest targets aren't cooperating.  First, Francisco Rodriguez made it clear that he is not looking to negotiate until the Winter Meetings begin on December 8.  Then, GM Omar Minaya was shocked to hear Brian Fuentes and his desire for a contract in the $10-$11 million per year range.
• Don't count the Blue Jays out of the running for A.J. Burnett... but don't count on them spending the money either.
  When running down the list of suitors for A.J. Burnett's services, the Toronto Blue Jays look like a long shot.  Don't tell the Jays that.  Interim CEO Paul Beeston revealed that he met with Burnett along with GM J.P. Ricciardi at Burnett's home.  After the discussion, both parties walked away convinced they had a shot at landing Burnett.  On the other hand, if the Blue Jays fail to re-sign Burnett, it is not guaranteed the club will spend the payroll they were willing to spend on Burnett on other players to improve the team.  It might be Burnett or nothing.
• Nine teams are "interested" in Junior Griffey but no one knows who.
  If the Seattle Mariners are after Ken Griffey Jr., there's nothing in the rumor mill to support it.  The intriguing information about Griffey is that a reported nine teams are interested in Griffey's services or 30% of all Major League teams.  None of the nine teams have been leaked and like all rumors this one could be created just to earn Junior a little extra attention but it's hard to imagine that is the case in this situation.
• Jake Peavy may not need a change of address form after all.
  First, the Braves dropped out of the running for Jake Peavy's services via a trade with the San Diego Padres after leading the list of suitors the Padres were willing to deal with.  Now, the Cubs have gone lukewarm on the idea of trading away young talent to earn the rights to Peavy.  Neither the Braves nor the Cubs have met the Padres offer price and now both are exploring other avenues.  With each passing day, Peavy is closer to a return to San Diego.
• Rafael Furcal might end up in the Bay Area but not yet.
  Early this week, Rafael Furcal was signed, sealed, delivered to Oakland... then the reports were refuted.  Now, the alternate report about Furcal and the Athletics is Furcal is visiting the Bay Area to meet with Oakland and the Athletics could offer him as much as four years for $48 million.  Another rumor during the week stated that the Giants were interested in Furcal.  Maybe while Furcal is in Oakland, he can swing by San Francisco to meet with the powers that be to discuss a deal, too.
• Randy Wolf and the Astros are at an impasse.
  Due to payroll issues, the Astros have decided to slow negotiations with one of their top targets according to the Houston Chronicle.  The club is uncertain of how big their '09 payroll will be, according to the report.  Until that question is answered, Houston will probably not be able to tender a firm offer to the guy they traded for at the Deadline.
• The Orioles might not have it in them to go local.
  Baltimore is in the shadow of the places where Mark Teixeira and A.J. Burnett call home.  Despite this and the Orioles interest in both players plus a willingness to spend big free agent money, the Orioles might come up short on both players.  Of the two, the Orioles are a more plausible candidate to land Burnett who lives in Monkton, MD.  According to multiple sources, Burnett is interested in staying close to home and with Monkton located 35 minutes from Baltimore, it's impossible to find a closer location. 
• Freddy Garcia's arm again a concern.
  Pitching in the Venezuelan Winter League, Freddy Garcia left a recent performance early due to shoulder discomfort.  Now, there are concerns popping up about the free agent pitcher's health.  It will be interesting to see how serious the setback is for Garcia who missed part of 2007 and most of 2008 due to arm problems. 
• Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens stay in the news.
  Barry Bonds had some charges dropped and others combined as the March trial date for his perjury trial moves closer.  Roger Clemens might have to explain how his DNA ended up on syringes, needles and gauze pads turned over by his former trainer Brian McNamee.  While Clemens awaits a test on McNamee's DNA to rule him out as a possible source of the DNA found on the syringes, needles and gauze pads handed over, his association with a charity golf event for children in Houston was severed.  Lately, it looks like Clemens' legal and personal issues are bigger than Bonds' issues... who would have predicted that a few years ago?

November 27, 2008

5 Things I'm Thankful For

Thanksgiving is upon us, and that means it's time to sit back, relax, stuff yourself silly, and watch some football.  It's also time to acknowledge the things we're most thankful for.  So, with that in mind, here are the five sports-related things I'm thankful for this Turkey Day. 

5.  Dustin Pedroia
The man who gives us 5-foot-less-than-6 guys hope.

4.  Tim Lincecum
Without whom my hometown team might be unwatchable.

3.  Free Agency
Without which the next couple of months would be a lot less bearable.

2.  Football
To ease the pain of spending the day with family.  (No thanks to the Lions or to NFL Network, which will leave me Arizona/Philly-less tonight.
  
1.  Just 79 days until pitchers and catchers report
So close, yet so far...

Have a safe and happy Thanksgiving

November 26, 2008

On Bedard: 'There's no saving that move'

Alan:  The team saw a lot of youth in the lineup this year between the likes of a Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien, what impressions did they make and where do they fit with the team in the future?

Jeff:  Hmm. Clement showed some ability, but he swung through too many pitches and struck out looking a good bit. The strikeouts killed him. His power showed itself on a few occasions, but, okay, take that two-homer game he had in July that beat the Tigers. Those two homers were his only two hits over a 28-AB span.

Over the same span he struck out nine times. That's kind of his 2008 in a nutshell. He also continued to raise questions about how long he'll be able to stick behind the plate, and there are real concerns that the team will have to move him to another position sooner, rather than later. So it was a struggle for Clement. But it wasn't as much of a struggle for him as it was for Wlad, who was a disaster.

He couldn't make any sort of consistent contact with the ball, and while he flashed a little range every now and again, overall his defense was poor. I guess the polite way of putting things is that, for both of the players, 2008 was a learning experience. Clement's a part of the team's future, be it behind the plate or somewhere around it. And Wlad could be a part of it, too. But I think he's expendable, as - if he's ever able to put things together - he's got the kind of skillset that 1) doesn't play well in Safeco, and 2) tends to get overrated by other GMs. I'm just not sold on him yet. Yeah, he's young. Yeah, he's talented. But he's not complete, and I'm not sure he ever will be. If someone comes calling with a decent offer, he is not a player I'd be sad to see dealt.

Visit MVN's Mariners community page for ongoing coverage of the Seattle Mariners with 'Mariners Minors' and 'Caffeinated Confines'.

November 24, 2008

Turkeys of baseball's free agent class

Gobble gobble!

This week has Thanksgiving in it. I don't know about you, but I'm looking forward to sitting down and stuffing my face with turkey, cranberry sauce, stuffing and mashed potatoes. Oh, the seeing family thing is alright too, I guess.

So while we have turkey on our minds, how about the top 5 free agents that people will come to most regret signing? Who is the next Carlos Silva or Andruw Jones?

There are plenty of lousy free agents available (Hi, Chris Gomez!) but which of the ones that will get significant money will bomb? Let's count it down...

5. A.J. Burnett

So, let me get this straight.  He just had his second full injury-free season in 10 years and threw a career high 222.1 innings. He's on the wrong side of 30 and he's going to command a five-year contract and the requisite dollars? Not buying it. Whoever signs him will get a great pitcher... when he can make it to the mound. And with all those injuries piling up, he could age very, very quickly.

4. Jason Varitek

Varitek is a consummate professional, a Gold Glover who calls a great game and is beloved by pitchers. He used to do damage with the bat, but is now a liability. There may be something to the idea that his injury and divorce weighed on him and impacted his offensive game, but even if he shakes that off next year, he will never be an offensive threat he once was. The Red Sox are playing chicken with him, and I'm willing to bet that another team will look at the name and throw far too many years and money for a catcher on the decline. He can still catch and the Red Sox can get one or two more years out of him as a starter, but that's it.

3. Felipe Lopez

Lopez, in his age 28 year, has amassed a career line of .262/.330/.395 and that line is impacted considerably by his .291/.352/.486 career year for the Cincinatti Reds in 2005. He became one of the worst regulars after being shipped to the Washington Nationals and then was resurrected in St. Louis with 156 at-bats of a .385/.426/.538 line. Can he give you a few years like 2005? Sure, he's young enough. But his history suggests otherwise, and some team, missing out on a few other free agent targets, will toss dollars at him in desperation.

2. Casey Blake

Blake is going to get a record payday for him, one that he deserves, but he's getting it on the wrong side of 30. He'll enter his age 35 year and is losing his defensive range at third quickly. He'll finish out whatever contract he gets as a backup first baseman and outfielder. He can still have a few productive years left, but again, he'll be paid for more than he will give.

1. Jon Garland

Garland is a good pitcher. There is no doubt about that. He can chew up a lot of innings and keep the team in the game. What he is not, however, is an ace or a viable number 2 (unless he skips to the NL West). The price for starting pitching is spiraling so high, Garland could exceed what Silva got last year. You don't pay that kind of money for a No. 3 (at best) starter.  Get him on an NL team with a defense that can pick it, and he will make his contract look okay. But it'll all be smoke and mirrors.

November 22, 2008

MVN Top-30 MLB Prospect Rankings

As promised, here is the list:

1. Matt Wieters - C, Orioles - Like Soto, but better at everything.
   
2. David Price - LHP, Rays - A great prospect, but Wieters edges him. The Rays won't complain.
   
3. Matt LaPorta - LF/1b, Indians - I love him more than most. Think about Carlos Lee.
   
4. Rick Porcello - RHP, Tigers - He got that MLB Contract out of HS for a reason.
   
5. Jason Heyward - OF, Braves - Another genius pick up from the Braves.
   
6. Colby Rasmus - CF, Cardinals - His 2008 wasn't great, but he retains Bobby Abreu-like skills.
   
7. Madison Bumgarner - LHP, Giants - 154/21 K/BB ratio in 134 2/3 innings... and a lefty.
   
8. Trevor Cahill - RHP, A's - A young Brandon Webb, but with much better control.
   
9. Cameron Maybin - CF, Marlins - Started to cut back on Ks in 2008, and stepped everything else
   
10. Pedro Alvarez - 3b, Pirates - Contract drama included, I'll take him over Beckham every time.
    
11. Tim Beckham - SS, Rays - Totally not fair for the Rays to get to pick him this year.
    
12. Jarrod Parker - RHP, Diamondbacks - 97 mph fastball + 9.00 K/9 + 2.53 K/9 = Ace
    
13. Josh Vitters - 3b, Cubs - Stumbled with the wooden bat adjustment, but hit .324/.361/.494 in 08
    
14. Dexter Fowler - OF, Rockies - An instant Matt Holliday clone
    
15. Mike Moustakas - Inf, Royals - 22 HR at 19 years old
    
16. Matt Dominguez - 3b, Marlins - Think about a healthy Eric Chavez
    
17. Neftali Feliz - RHP, Rangers - Maybe the best stuff in the minors
    
18. Buster Posey - C, Giants - Looked great in Hawaii
    
19. Eric Hosmer - 1b, Royals - Huge power, with other tools well-rounded
20. Andrew McCutchen - CF, Pirates - Still waiting for the power, but everything else is there.
    
21. Jordan Zimmerman - RHP, Nationals - Easily the fastest riser of the 2007 Draft Class
    
22. Mike Stanton - RF, Marlins - Came out of no where to hit .293/.381/.611 with 39 HRs. 150+ K are alarming, but he's got time to cut them down.
    
23. Angel Villalona - 3b, Giants - Held his own at 17 in a full-season league.
    
24. Travis Snider - OF, Jays - .301/.338/.466 in limited MLB action at 20 years old.
    
25. Brett Anderson - LHP, A's - Way underrated, 20 year old LHP with a 118/27 K/BB ratio in 105 innings.
    
26. Chris Tillman - RHP, Orioles - A little wild, but strikes people out like its no one's business.
    
27. Jesus Montero - C, Yankees - I'm a huge believer. If he sticks at catcher, he could be Mike Piazza.
    
28. Lars Anderson - 1b, Red Sox - He just keeps getting on base at strong rates, and is finally showing a bit more power.
    
29. Jhoulys Chacin - RHP, Rockies - He's absurdly efficient, pitching 177 innings in 28 starts
    
30. Ben Revere- CF, Twins - I criticized them for what I considered an overdraft in 2007. He hit .378 in 373 PA in 2008. While some of that is luck, its also pretty hard to ignore.

So, there is my list. Some of you will likely disagree with me. That's great! I'd love to hear it. I'll deal with why I ranked each individual where I did when I get to their prospect profiles. A few words though:

I recognize that I may be swinging at a curveball on Montero and Stanton. Both have incredibly high ceilings and reasonable chances at making it to that potential. I may be taking a risk on them, but both are plausible #1 prospects by this time next year. On a similar note, I do not think that I am overreaching on Cahill, LaPorta, or Zimmerman. All are not only very solid bets to reach their potential, but have very good ceilings.

Who's missing? The biggest name that might get a top-30 rating from other publications is probably J.P. Arencibia. He just doesn't take any where near enough walks for me, and that stands true even if he's a catcher.

November 22, 2008

Ranking Baseball's Top-30 Prospects, Part 1

Tomorrow, I will post my top-30 prospects in baseball. I've been covering the Yankees' minor league system for years now. I think that I have ranked the Yankee system a dozen times. This was a fairly simple task: my pool of players to choose from was pretty well-defined, and I knew the individual history of each player. Ranking the top-30 in all of baseball is a little more difficult. I'm going to use this post to talk about the criteria that I use to determine who I think is the best prospect.

First off, I define a prospect as any player who is still rookie-eligible but has either just been drafted or is currently in the minor leagues. So, older rookies coming from Japan will not be ranked, nor will college or high school players who have yet to be drafted. I also for the most part tend to shy away from any player who has just undergone a major medical procedure - I don't like to speculate about players recovering from Tommy John surgery. I do this because any objective ranking would need to be based on medical knowledge which I neither have access to would I understand even if I had the information.

I believe in performance. I want to see a guy succeed at his level, relative to league difficulty and age, before I consider him a top prospect. Lots of guy are full of tools. Lots of guy are the darlings of scouts. The thing is, scouts generally need a fairly long period of time to develop a good understanding of a player. Many people speak with authority about an 18 year old from the Dominican Republic who has the best tools since Alex Rodriguez, but it takes them time to identity the flaws in his game. Minor league performance is an incredibly projectable and accurate indicator of future success, when analyzed correctly.

What do I mean by performance relative to age and league difficulty? A couple of things. First off, the minor leagues tend to have much more extreme park effects than the majors. The Pacific Coast League has enough hitters ballparks to make it a well-defined hitters league. The Florida State League, due to the local weather, is very tough on hitters. For age, I want to see how a player did against more or less advanced hitters and pitchers. Jesus Montero's .326/.376/.491 line wouldn't be as impressive had he not been 18 years old in A ball, or if he hadn't done it in the South Atlantic League, a mild pitcher's league.

I also care a lot about closeness to the major leagues. People tend to overrate players who show tons of promise, both on the field and in their tools, when they are lower in the minor leagues. No matter how good a player looks in A ball, he's still got a long journey ahead of him full of land mines that he will have to avoid. Time is both a prospect's worst enemy and best friend. It may be his best friend when he has flaws to work out - a pitcher in A ball has years to figure out how to throw a changeup - but it also gives him time to develop them.

There is a debate within the prospect community about whether or not to put more weight toward a prospect's ceiling or his reliability. That is, should a high risk, high reward prospect be ranked ahead of a medium risk, medium reward one? Generally, I tend to shy away from risk. That said, being that this top-30 is the absolute cream of the crop, I do not have any tremendous risks included. If the list were to be expanded to top-100, then there would be some debate about ranking guys who fall into different parts of the risk/reward matrix. In other words, pretty much all of these guys are medium-risk, high reward.

So, my top-30 will be slanted toward players about to break into the major leagues, perhaps more so than other rankers on the internet. As far as I can tell I'm the first to rank baseball-wide prospects and publish the list, so we'll see where I compare to others in a few weeks. Next week, I will commence with prospect profiles. I will count down from 30 to 1, and write a full report on each prospect, including a scouting report and an explanation of why I ranked each prospect.

 

November 22, 2008

Hot Stove Dishes - November 22, 2008

The latest buzz served up from baseball's Hot Stove League.  Ten of the hottest stories, moves and rumors from the past week:

• The Giants are the dark horse to be big time players this offseason.
  Out of nowhere, rumors swirled that the Giants would be inserting themselves into the CC Sabathia chase.  San Francisco already went out and signed one of the better lefty relievers on the market.  Besides Sabathia, the Giants are after Edgar Renteria and might jump into the fray on another higher end infielder to fill their middle infield needs.  If the Giants land Sabathia, they would instantly be contenders in the National League West.
  
• Mike Mussina retires!
  We can move on from the discussion of will Mike Mussina return to the Yankees or not for 2009 since he officially announced his retirement this week.  The 270-game winner now will be discussed based on his merits for Hall of Fame worthiness.  It won't hurt that he played half his career in New York.  Neither will the 20-win season in 2008 or the 100-plus games he is above .500 for his career.
  
• K-Rod in a holding pattern around New York.
  After submitting his client's medical records to Omar Minaya on Thursday, closer Francisco Rodriguez's agent made sure that everyone knew they were waiting for an answer from the Mets on their interest after seeing his medical records.  The sticking point with K-Rod at this point for any team is his desire for a long-term deal in a market filled with closers.  No one seems to want to pony up for Rodriguez's services for five years.  Maybe things will change once closers start to fall off the market.
  
• Chase Utley is going to miss four to six months.
  It's tough to repeat.  Chase Utley's hip surgery will add to the Phillies' obstacles if it keeps him out for the full six months it could sideline the World Champion's All-Star second baseman.  And don't forget the Phillies might not have a ton of cash to spend either since half the team is in line for big raises in arbitration.  The last thing they need is Utley to miss an extended period of time.
  
• Ramon Vazquez might land in Arizona.
  All signs point in the direction of Texas' Ramon Vazquez heading to Arizona to fill the D-backs need for a second baseman with the departure of Orlando Hudson.  As of last night, Arizona made Vazquez an offer but no word on whether he has accepted the deal or not.
  
• Joe Beimel's L.A. story may be over.
  It's doubtful Casey Blake returns to L.A. and unlikely Rafael Furcal comes back either.  Add Joe Beimel to that growing list of players on their way out of Dodgertown.  The Dodgers have a ton of holes to fill due to free agency and Beimel should get overpaid by someone making it less possible for a return engagement with the Dodgers in 2009.
  
• Trever Miller signed with the Cardinals... or did he?
  Earlier this week, reliever Trever Miller was reported to be the second free agent to change teams during the free agent signing period.  Even ESPN Mobile Alerts sent out the update as a done deal.  Then, it became a matter of Miller passing a physical.  A few days later and there's still no official deal.  At some point though, it is expected that Miller will be a Cardinal.
  
• Mike Hampton is crazy (or crazy like a fox).
  The Braves want Mike Hampton back but they don't want to sign him for a long-term deal.  Fortunately, the injury-prone Hampton only wants... a one year deal!  Unlike most free agents, the 36-year-old Hampton is willing to take a one year deal according to sources close to the situation.  Maybe Hampton knows something we don't but at 36, there can't be a lot left in the tank. 
  
• The Rangers need a third baseman.
  There is an offensive need the Rangers have.  Besides the lengthy list of needs in the rotation and the bullpen, the Rangers need a third baseman.  Hank Blalock has been the club's Opening Day starter at third for seven years but is probably going to be Texas' DH.  Chris Davis is an option but he's currently penciled in at first.  Their best options beyond that are Travis Metcalf or someone on the market not out of their price range which excludes Joe Crede and Casey Blake, at the moment.
  
• MLB gets it right on the postseason.  Better late than never.
  It's official:  Major League Baseball postseason games can't end before the ninth inning!  That obvious decision only took a hundred-plus years. 

November 20, 2008

A best-of-one first-round playoff?

It's hardly a secret these days that among the things on Commissioner Bud Selig's to-do list is finding a way to shorten the MLB postseason.  This is a salient concern heading into the 2009 season -- set to open on the night of Sunday, April 5th -- because under the current schedule, next year's World Series would likely drag into early-November.   Unfortunately, none of the proposals brought forth thus far are both attractive and feasible.  But could the team that brought us Moneyball now change October baseball?

If Oakland Athletics owner Lew Wolff has his way, the solution to the playoffs dragging into late October -- and perhaps even November -- will be replacing the four League Division Series with a quartet of one-game showdowns. 

Since 1995, the opening round of the playoffs has employed a best-of-five format, thus paring the field of eight down to four.  But by chopping two to four games off of each series, Major League Baseball could shorten the length of the postseason by roughly a week. 

"I'd make it a one-game-and-you're-out for the first series," Wolff told the Associated Press on Wednesday.  "It would be exciting; it would be great."

Wolff's side of the argument isn't hard to see.  Certainly, four single-game, winner-take-all contests for Championship Series berths would in some ways be more exciting than the current format.  For one, each of the contests would feature a duel of the teams' best pitchers going head-to-head to save their playoff lives.  As well, any fans who would otherwise skip Game 1, thinking along the lines of "the series won't be decided tonight anyway," would be glued to their seats and tubes.  And, most importantly of course, turning each Division Series into a Division Playoff would accomplish the goal of shortening the postseason. 

But I, for one, would be against this solution because it significantly decreases the likelihood that the four best teams are the ones that will actually advance.  The Major League Baseball playoffs are already, to a worrisome degree, a crapshoot.  And Wolff's proposed solution would only exacerbate that problem.

Making the opening round of the playoffs a one-game showdown would figure to put each teams' best starting pitcher on the mound, and force the players and managers to pull out all the stops in hopes of winning the game.  But while this might add to the excitement of that particular game, it would be a significant deviation from the strategies necessary to succeed during the regular season and in a longer series. 

A one-game playoff would devalue depth in favor of top-heavy talent; for example, it would give a boost to teams with only one spectacular starting pitcher and only a couple of shutdown relievers over those that may not have an elite ace, but that do have strong depth in both the rotation and the bullpen.  Moreover, a one-game playoff would make managers far more inclined to dig into their rosters in ways that they realistically would not even contemplate from April through September, simply because of its winner-take-all nature.  Since the grind of a 162-game regular season places quite a bit of emphasis on depth and strategy, a one-game Division Playoff would seem to directly contradict the principles behind it, unnecessarily altering the game. 

But on an even simpler note, it's crucial to realize that baseball -- and other sports as well, but baseball especially -- is not a sport in which the better of two teams can be discerned in a single game.  The adage "any team can win on any given day" is truer in baseball than in any other sport because of how significantly small sample sizes can affect the game.  Consider that even the best teams in the majors seldom win much more than 60 percent of their games; when you boil that down to a single contest, you effectively sap the superior of the two teams of much of the advantage it would have in a best-of-five series.  A best-of-one format would also give a significant edge to teams that "get hot at the right time," something that is largely dependent on luck.  Putting all of that together, it's quite clear that turning the League Division Series into League Division Playoffs would serve to decrease the chances that the actual best team will come out on top. 

While I don't disagree that shortening the postseason to avoid having it stretch into November is a good idea, abbreviating the first-round series does not seem to be a fair solution. 

If you agree that the ultimate goal of the playoffs is for the best team in the majors to hoist the hardware after the last out of the World Series, Lew Wolff's plan -- despite solving the issue at hand -- is a step in the wrong direction.