MVN: Most Valuable Network

MLB Crystal Ball: NL East

With only two weeks to go until the games start to mean something, we continue looking into the Crystal Ball to see who will finish where in 2009.  We've done both West and Central divisions, and this week we start with the East divisions, taking a look at the National League East.

Background:  Another year, another September collapse for the Mets.  While last season's fall from first place wasn't nearly as bad as 2007's collapse -- their largest division lead in 2008 was 3.5 games -- they felt the sting of being eliminated from playoff contention on the last day of the season once again, thanks to the combination of their loss to Florida and Milwaukee's win over Chicago.  Philadelphia won the division, and eventually the World Series, thanks to a hot finish to the season -- the Phils were 17-8 in September, and rolled through the National League playoffs with relative ease.  Florida surprised a lot of people last year, finishing 84-77 in what was supposed to be another rebuilding year.  Atlanta struggled mightily with injuries to the likes of Chipper Jones and Tim Hudson, fell out of contention early, and were forced to trade Mark Teixeira in the middle of the season when it became clear he was intent on testing free agency at the end of the year.  Washington finished with the worst record in baseball, edging out Seattle for the rights to the #1 pick in this June's draft. 

1. Philadelphia Phillies
There's a lot to like about the Phillies, and they're the defending World champions -- you'd have to be crazy to think they don't have a chance to repeat as NL East champs once again and make another deep run into the playoffs.  Their biggest offseason loss was Pat Burrell, and they replaced him with Raul Ibanez, who won't provide the same level of offensive production Burrell will and will likely play even worse defense.  The Phillies were likely better off keeping Burrell instead of splurging on Ibanez, especially considering the contract Burrell eventually signed with Tampa Bay, but they likely won't be hurt much by the move.  The real concern for the Phillies in 2009 will once again be their pitching.  For most of the season, it was Cole Hamels and not much else in the rotation...until September, when everyone seemed to get hot and the Phils were virtually unbeatable.  Great pitching by the likes of Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton carried them just as much as Ryan Howard did in the playoffs, but will they be able to keep it going for the length of a season in 2009?  That may be the opening that the rest of the division needs to make this a close race.

2. New York Mets
There's nothing wrong with being competitive and in playoff contention every year.  In New York, though, they expect better -- especially when you hold a division lead late in the season.  The Mets added Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz early in the offseason, and didn't do much from there...mostly because they didn't have to.  You could make an argument that the Mets didn't even need K-Rod and Putz to contend for a wildcard spot this season.  With them, they're the odds-on favorite to take that final playoff spot.  The offense should be very good once again, anchored by Jose Reyes, David Wright, and Carlos Beltran.  Carlos Delgado put together a surprisingly solid 2008, but with him reaching the end of his career, can he duplicate last year's stat line?  Daniel Murphy will be the new starting leftfielder, and is creating a ton of excitement -- he won't be eligible for the Rookie of the Year vote, putting in a few more ABs past the limit last year, but that didn't stop Edinson Volquez from somehow getting ROY votes last year.

3. Atlanta Braves
If you build a list of everything that could possibly go wrong for a franchise during the course of the season, the Braves would probably be able to check off most of the items on that list.  Lose your ace to Tommy John surgery?  Check.  Have your biggest offensive threat miss nearly 40 games?  Check.  Forced to trade away last year's big acquisition for pennies compared to what you paid for him?  Check.  Struggle to find a closer for much of the year?  Check.  Lose more one run games than anyone else in the league?  Check.  Things even started poorly for the Braves in the offseason, with Rafael Furcal backing out of a verbal free agent deal to re-sign with the Dodgers.  They bounced back nicely, though, addressing most of their major needs.  They bolstered the starting rotation with the additions of Derek Lowe, Javier Vazquez, and Japanese rookie Kenshin Kawakami.  Add those three to Jorge Campillo, who had a surprisingly good 2008, and Jair Jurrjens and you have the makings of one of the stronger rotations in National League.  That's why they slot into third place here -- they improved their pitching enough to put them ahead of Florida, but they're not quite good enough offensively to overtake the Mets heading into the season.  They certainly won't have to worry about losing 90 games again, but 90 wins also seems unlikely.

4. Florida Marlins
The Marlins took a step forward last season, and with the news that their new stadium plans have been approved, things are looking pretty good in Miami right now.  However, I just can't shake the feeling that they'll have a tough time keeping up in what's looking like baseball's toughest division.  They have a lot of young pitching with a lot of upside -- Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, and Chris Volstad were all very good last year -- but the problem with young pitching is that it's still hard to tell what they'll do year-to-year.  Offensively, they should manage to hit a lot of home runs again, thanks to Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez, but can Jorge Cantu -- who's been wildly inconsistent throughout his career -- top (or even repeat) last season's home run total of 29?  Defensively, the team may be shaky as well -- Uggla and Ramirez can hit the cover off the ball, but seem to have trouble picking it up off the ground.  The Marlins will definitely be a fun team to watch this year, but it doesn't look like they'll have enough pieces to keep up with the bigger markets playing above them in the division race.  I would expect another finish around .500.

5. Washington Nationals
Unlike the American League, we pretty much already know who's finishing last in every NL division.  San Diego's a lock for the West, Pittsburgh's a lock for the Central, and Washington's a lock for the East.  It's a crappy situation all around in Washington, with the pitching staff in relative shambles and former GM Jim Bowden's alleged criminal activities in Latin America bringing more bad publicity to the team.  At least they signed Adam Dunn, so the offense should at least see a little boost in the power department, but the pitching just isn't there for that offense to translate into many wins.  The best that Washington fans can hope for this year is playing spoiler in September and getting Stephen Strasburg drafted and signed.

Who Could Be Baseball's Cinderella Team This Year?

The best Cinderella team in baseball history might very well be last year's Tampa Bay Rays. Everyone knew they were pretty good and were going to be good, but this good this fast? No, no one saw that coming.

Certainly, a season after winning the AL pennant, everyone expects the Rays to be great.

So who will take the mantle of the 2009 Cinderella team? It doesn't have to be a team who makes the playoffs; all it has to be is a team that takes people by surprise in how they contend.

Sorry, it can't be the Florida Marlins or Cincinnati Reds -- they've been talked up all winter and spring as candidates to do damage. We need a true Cinderella -- a team no one expects, period.

Let's look at candidates by division:

AL EAST
Boston, New York and Tampa Bay are out. Toronto is out too -- they've been at or above .500 for quite a few years now and everyone knows they're a quality club. They just have pieces missing. Baltimore has the offense, not the pitching. Their seasons are essentially over before it's begun.

AL CENTRAL
Tough to extend someone a Cinderella moniker here. Cleveland, Minnesota, Chicago, Detroit, all for various reasons, are expected to contend and recently have. Detroit had such firepower last year and fell flat on their face that they were the antithesis of Cinderella. If they succeed this year, they won't be viewed as a Cinderella team -- they'll be where they should have been. Kansas City... now there's a possible.

AL WEST
Oakland and Los Angeles are widely believed to contend while Texas is just waiting to find pitching with a pulse. Their offense is playoff caliber, so if they can string along some good pitching appearances, they will contend. They're so close to contending in a weak division that I don't see them as a Cinderella team. Seattle misleadingly contended in 2007 before flailing in 2008. 2009 will be a transitional year.

NL EAST
The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies are the big dogs while the Atlanta Braves expect to contend and Florida is a trendy pick. Washington? Nope, not happening. Great candidate for 2010, though.

NL CENTRAL
This division belongs to the Cubs, and Milwaukee finished with 90 wins. They're expected to regress, but even if they don't, it's not a Cinderella team. Houston finished 86-76, which shocked a lot of pundits and they're expected to finish in the basement. Okay, they could be a Cinderella team. St. Louis also went 86-76 but strangely seems to be completely off the map. There's another option. Cincinnati, like Florida, is trendy. Pittsburgh... next!

NL WEST
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the favorites here, but the truth is that the overall division is so weak that the Colorado Rockies, Arizona Diamondbacks and San Francisco Giants could all have a say in it.

THE THREE CANDIDATES TO BE A CINDERELLA TEAM ARE...
So I've picked the Kansas City Royals, Houston Astros and St. Louis Cardinals as possible Cinderella teams. So who's my pick to surprise?

KANSAS CITY
One of the more baffling aspects of this off-season was the Royals bringing in players who can't get on base, most notably Mike Jacobs (although he's looked impressive this spring). The club finished "just" seven games below .500 and has Cinderella history in them -- look at 2003, for example.

By adding Jacobs and Coco Crisp in center, they improve their offensive firepower and outfield defense, respectively. They've also brought in relievers Kyle Farnsworth and Juan Cruz for power arms in the bullpen.

I'm liking this team as a Cinderella team. Pretty much every team in the AL Central has its warts. Couple bad bounces for other teams, good ones for the Royals, and they could be playing meaningful baseball the last couple weeks of 2009.

HOUSTON
If the team finished 86-76 last year, why are they considered to lose over 90 games? Well, they lost Randy Wolf and Ty Wigginton while replacing them with Mike Hampton and Aaron Boone, respectively.

Now Boone is out for the year, so the Astros answered by bringing in catcher Ivan Rodriguez. With Geoff Blum essentially the de facto starter at third (unless the club shifts Ivan to third part-time, but I don't see any indication of that happening) the offense is going to be porous sans Lance Berkman and Hunter Pence.

On pitching, Roy Oswalt is the only starter you can count on while three of the four remaining are retreads -- Mike Hampton, Brian Moehler and Russ Ortiz.

Yecch. How did I pick this team as a possible Cinderella again? Nevermind.

ST. LOUIS
St. Louis contended last year because of one man, and one man only. In fact, I hear they considered changing their name from the Cardinals to the Albert Pujols, to better reflect the state of their team.

Colby Rasmus, their hot prospect, will break into the outfield and Tony La Russa will try Skip Schumaker at second. They're hoping that Khalil Greene, finally out of the graveyard known as Petco Park, will hit as his road career numbers indicate (.270/.318/.484).

Getting Chris Carpenter back and being victorious on reclamation projects Joel Pineiro and Todd Wellemeyer give this starting rotation some punch. They don't have any studs in relief, but are deep in capable relievers.

They don't hold a candle to the talent of the Cubs, but could they finish second and push for a playoff spot? I could see it.

ENOUGH WITH THE MUSINGS, WHO DO YOU THINK WILL BE THE CINDERELLA TEAM!?
Okay, okay, alright, jeez.

Looking at all the teams and the divisions they play in, I'm going with the...

Kansas City Royals.

Yeah, I said it. I'm looking at the NL Central and while I feel it's the weaker division from top to bottom, I can't see any team challenging the Cubs, and the strength of the NL East means the wild card will likely come out of there.

I look at the AL Central, and I can objectively see very valid reasons why every team -- every team -- could finish first or last. Out of all those teams, the Royals are overlooked. Why? They went 75-87 and improved.

How'd they improve? Easy. Their outfield defense is now to be reckoned with with David DeJesus shifting to left and Coco Crisp manning up in center.

The offense may not be full of walking machines, but Mike Jacobs has light-tower power, a full year of Mike Aviles and there's a reason Alex Gordon and Billy Butler are held in such high regard.

The  pitching boasts Zack Greinke, who Bill James said is the best active pitcher closest to perfection. Their back of the rotation has a couple question marks, but Luke Hochevar could easily make the leap forward and they shored up their bullpen to the point where they should win a couple more games on the bullpen alone.

I can definitely see an 88-74 finish, which could be enough to send the team into October.

You heard it here first.

MLB Great Debates: Is Schilling Hall of Fame Worthy?

MLB Outsider's Jaymes Langrehr and Kurt Evans debate the issue: Does recently retired starting pitcher Curt Schilling have the resume necessary for admission to the Baseball Hall of Fame?

Jaymes Langrehr believes Schilling's ticket to Cooperstown is punched:

Curt Schilling announced his retirement this week in a way only he could -- on his blog.

The only question left to answer now is if he'll be enshrined in Cooperstown someday. I say it's a no-brainer.

Sure, he's never won a Cy Young award. He only won 20 games three times in his 20-year career. His career record of 216-146 isn't all that impressive. He doesn't have the traditional Hall of Fame numbers that voters generally look for (although he did reach the 3,000 strikeout mark).

But when you look at other criteria -- contributions to the game, memorable moments, and the like -- Schilling becomes a clear Hall of Famer in my book.

He was the catalyst for two World Series championship teams -- the first for an upstart expansion club facing off against the New York Yankees, the second for a team that was breaking an 80+ year World Series drought -- and was an important part of a third championship team. He teamed up with Randy Johnson in one of the most dominating pitching performances ever in the 2001 series, and his bloody sock will be the most memorable part of Boston's 2004 World Series run.

The only thing that may keep him out is a love-hate relationship with the media. Considering it's the writers who hold the power of the vote, anyone who has a personal grudge against him would have plenty of legitimate arguments to hold him out. But in the long run, you'd have to think that he'll get in. He may have never been the best pitcher of his generation, but he was one of the best clean players in an era where you never really knew who to trust.

Kurt Evans argues that Schilling may be worthy of enshrinement, but not more so than others left on the outside looking in:

Not too long ago, a horse of a pitcher and staff ace stepped up to the rubber and delivered a tremendous performance in the playoffs -- one, it could be argued, which changed the course of his team's direction that year. He was known as a Big Game Pitcher, and this game was the defining moment of a shining career. And now, years later, Jack Morris -- who once threw 10 innings in a World Series game against the Braves -- still is on the outside of the Hall of Fame looking in.

Curt Schilling may be our generation's Jack Morris. When he was at the top of his game there were few better. Schilling had some amazing seasons in his career -- when he could manage to stay healthy, anyway -- and his defining moment was a bloody-socked playoff game in which he won despite all odds. And then he did it again the next week in the World Series.

There is no denying that Schilling was a special pitcher. Pretty much anybody who wins World Series games for three teams -- and three World Championship titles, by the way -- is bound to be special. There is no denying that he played a healthy role in reversing the second-worst "curse" in baseball. But while Schilling was a tremendous arm in a hitter's era, it's a bit of a stretch to suggest that he's going to be enshrined in Cooperstown someday.

The facts are these: Schilling is retiring with 216 wins in his career. Above him are 79 pitchers. The pitchers with the fewest wins to be enshrined are Jim Bunning and Catfish Hunter, both with 224 wins. Bunning was a strikeout king and perennial All Star who won his games despite never being on a playoff team. Hunter had a Cy Young Award to his name and five World Series titles on his resume. But there are many pitchers with more wins -- and even some with considerable playoff success -- who will never go to Cooperstown unless they buy a ticket. Does Schilling really deserve to go ahead of all of them?

All told, Schilling did have a fantastic career. He achieved unbelievable successes. He will certainly be remembered by the fans of at least four cities -- Philadelphia, Arizona, Boston, and New York (the latter for the defeats he dealt them). But if he failed to be elected to the Hall of Fame, he would hardly be the best pitcher to never be enshrined. I may therefore submit that maybe Schilling is Hall of Fame worthy, but not more so than many of the pitchers who've never received their just considerations. But he perhaps will be the best pitcher of our generation who doesn't get in -- at least, the best unenshrined who wasn't a confirmed steroid user like Roger Clemens.

An Ode to Curt Schilling

Curt Schilling announced yesterday that he's calling it quits.  This comes on the heels of a brief plea to the Chicago Cubs to allow him the chance to win a title in the North Side, making his curse-breaking career complete.  But even without a chance to wear Cub pin-stripes, Schilling has played a storied career for a number of teams, pitching in the World Series for the Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Red Sox.  

I actually wrote an infamous "open letter" to Schilling on my blog before the start of the 2008 season.  I thought that it would be insanely storybook if he came to Chicago and did for the Cubs what he did for the Red Sox.  It actually would have been extremely fitting if he had signed with them, because like many other of Chicago's great pitching hopes, he'd go on to spend the entire year on the DL with an arm injury. 

Upon reflection, I'm happy he didn't sign that contract.  Even if he'd stayed healthy, unless he was suddenly able to swing a bat I'm not sure if he could've helped the Cubs anyway.  But regardless of that, Schilling stinks somewhat of a player anxious to benefit from the rub of other players and teams. 

(Sidebar.  Rub = Benefiting from a friend's fame/popularity.  Example: I went out to dinner with Michael Jordan yesterday.  Thanks to his rub, four extremely hot girls hit on me later that night.)

I'm not knocking Curt for anything he's done -- far from it.  He pitched his ass off in numerous seasons and delivered some of the most impressive Big Game Performances of my lifetime.  In 19 playoff starts, Schilling is 11-2 with an ERA of 2.23 - including a 2.06 World Series ERA.  I'm just suggesting that much as Mr. Schilling never turned away from a live camera feed, he also never hesitated to better his situation in order to also better his legacy.  In other words, Curt was one guy who loved the limelight - and flourished in it.

But speaking of rub, Schilling rubbed more than a few people the wrong way.  From teammates to fans to Democrats, it's pretty well-acknowledged that Schilling's propensity to be vocal annoyed some and hurt others.  He butted heads with more than one teammate throughout the years.  Then again, 19 playoff starts. 11 wins.  Bloody effing Sock.  Curt Schilling wanted to win, he won often, and if he says that some of his teammates played the game the wrong way, who are we to say that he isn't right?

Yesterday, I debated staff writer Jaymes Langrehr about whether or not Schilling belongs in the Hall of Fame.  I took the con stance.  But if there ever was a 216 game winner who belongs there, it's Schilling.  We can let the Baseball Writers decide if he in fact is Hall material, but I wouldn't be surprised if sometime before his final year of eligibility he gets voted in. 

After all, regardless of what you think about his personality, or his statistical accomplishments, we can probably agree on one thing: Curt Schilling was amazing when he needed to be, he was better than normal, and he has left a legacy that might be highlighted by that damned bloody sock, but isn't defined by it.  In other words, he was special.  There won't be another like him any time soon.   

Fantasy Baseball: Relief Pitcher Rankings

1. JONATHAN PAPELBON, BOS

• He was already a stud, but he showed signs of becoming a more complete pitcher in '08.

2. JOE NATHAN, MIN

• A spring injury issue is under control and Nathan has 36+ saves in five straight seasons.

3. MARIANO RIVERA, NYY

• He the best of all time and he's not quite 40. The age brings risk, but he is a rock.

4. FRANCISCO RODRIGUEZ, NYM

• A violent delivery combine with declining velocity and rate stats to make him iffy.

5. BRAD LIDGE, PHI

• There is virtually no way his ratios are as good in '09 as they were last year. He's a beast though.

6. JOAKIM SORIA, KC

• He was a bit lucky in '08 and we haven't seen much from him, but he's got the skills.

7. CARLOS MARMOL, CHC

• I always get a little nervous when a guy closes for the first time. Still, he's got a rocket arm.

8. BOBBY JENKS, CHW

• His abysmal K rate last season is a little scary, but I am willing to give him a mulligan.

9. JOSE VALVERDE, HOU

• He struggled in the 1st half and put up solid numbers in the 2nd. He'll be the 2nd half guy.

10. JONATHAN BROXTON, LAD

• The job is all his finally, but does he have the mentality? A strikeout demon.

11. BRIAN FUENTES, LAA

• The Angels are built to be a team that provides a lot of save opportunities. Just don't count on 62 saves from Fuentes.

12. KERRY WOOD, CLE

• As always with Wood, the question is his health. Could be first tier if he's healthy.

13. MATT CAPPS, PIT

• He won't break any save records in Pittsburgh, but his ratios are up there with the best.

14. B.J. RYAN, TOR

• I've got him way down here, but he has the potential to finish the season way up there.

15. FRANCISCO CORDERO, CIN

• Rough intro to Cincy last season, but he wasn't completely awful. Get him when he slips.

16. BRIAN WILSON, SF

• His atrocious ratios in '08 were only barely offset by his big save totals.

17. HEATH BELL, SD

• Years of playing second fiddle to Hoffman finally leads to his shot. The upside is there.

18. MIKE GONZALEZ, ATL

• He's got the experience and his health has returned. A nice low-end closer.

19. FRANK FRANCISCO, TEX

• Be careful, because if you piss him off he will throw chairs instead of baseballs.

20. CHAD QUALLS, ARI

• Another guy moving into the full-time closer role for the first time. For the record, they are always the first to go.
  

MLB Stock Market - Spring Training Decisions Edition

Wow, here we are already in the final week of March.  Thank the good lord that MLB has given us this gift of Spring Baseball that Matters, because we'd otherwise have absolutely nothing exciting to watch this month in the world of sports. 

However, I'll be fair for a moment.  I think there are a decent number of people actually interested in the World Baseball Classic.  Although most of us would probably have trouble telling you last time's winner without looking it up, and while many of us remain befuddled with how Puerto Rico could've beaten Team USA when they're a part of America, the WBC has potential to be teh awesome.  But wouldn't it be better in November?  Just sayin'. 

Besides, now that Team USA has exited the tourney - something we'll talk about a little later - I have a feeling not too many people will be following the WBC very closely ... if they ever were.

Rising

Gavin Floyd's dollar figure for the next five years
Actually I'd call this a shocking discount for the White Sox, except Floyd hasn't proven he can duplicate his 17-win 2008 season.  The Sox have signed their young ace to an arbitration-escaping 4-year, $15.5 million dollar extension.  Floyd is 26, has pitched in parts of 5 seasons, and threw 179.2 of his 385 career innings and won 8 of his 25 career victories before the '08 season.  Maybe he was just trying to hedge his bets?

Chris Getz's projected at bats in 2009
Speaking of the White Sox, Chris Getz has apparently won the starting second base gig.  Getz is a 25-year-old lefty who's had all of 7 at bats before the 2009 season.  The White Sox are probably not going to be as good as they were last year, but if they want to have any kind of chance then they'll need guys like Getz to play well.  Ol' Getz-what-you-deserve (sorry, I know it was lame) looks as if he could be a decent #2 hitter, or maybe even bat leadoff.  But has anybody started a pool on how long he plays before Guillen snaps and either pummels or demotes him?

The No-Hit Marlins
Nothing is more disappointing than an exciting no-hitter achieved when the games don't count.  That's what happened when Ricky Nolasco and two Fish relievers shut down the Tigers offense on Sunday.  It's the third no-no thrown in the last 15 years of Spring Training.  Luckily for the Tigers, history goes easy on the sad participants of Spring Training no-hitters - records of such achievements are at best poorly kept. 

Holding

Bob Geren's status of "employed"
I'm not sure if this is a good thing or not - the Oakland Athletics have offered their manager a lukewarm endorsement by extending him for 1 year with an option, potentially making him the team's skipper through the 2011 season.  The 1-year aspect is troubling, because it means that the Athletics are expecting immediate results from Geren.  In other words, if your favorite Athletic prospect is almost ready to play at the Major League level, you might have to wait a while for him to get his chance because managers who can't afford to let players grow tend not to let them start.  Just ask Dusty "Neifi Perez is my boy" Baker. 

Andruw Jones's status of "major league ball player" (for now)
How the mighty have fallen.  Just a decade ago, Andruw Jones was a young, power-hitting, gold-glove wearing outfielder who gave Braves fans visions of a Hank Aaron reborn.  Now he's a washed-up 31-year-old who might not even reach 400 homeruns on his career - a feat that seemed inevitable just 2 or 3 years ago.  Jones is presently playing in the Rangers' camp, where he's been told that he might make the team -- as a backup.  And his stock is so low that he's actually accepted it.  Ouch.  But it's better to be employed a little than not at all.

Falling

Trevor Hoffman's health
The Hoff should have been a career Padre, except for that small blemish with the Marlins at the start of his career.  Apparently the gawds agree with that sentiment, because the future Brewers closer has a "dim" prognosis of starting the season healthy enough to pitch.  The good news is that the old man isn't suffering from arm problems - it's an oblique.  The bad news is that my history of following the fragile Kerry Wood tells me that obliques can be very pesky and have the tendency to recur a lot. 

BJ Upton's bat speed (due to his hand injury)
Speaking of injuries, the Rays were the only AL East competitive team to not suffer from any big ones - until now.  Where the Yankees have had to put up with an injured A-Rod, and the Red Sox have to contend with an injured Youklis, the Rays are now dealing with an injured Upton.  BJ was hit on the hand by a pitch recently, and, while nothing has been broken, Rays manager Joe Maddon has decided to exercise caution.  Hand injuries tend to affect a player's ability to hit for power.  Upton only hit 9 homeruns last season anyway, but he's probably hoping to return to 2007 form when he smacked 24 homers.  Luckily he has an immense amount of speed, so should he lose his power game for another year he'll still be valuable to Tampa.

The charitable mood of the player's union
When Manny Ramirez signed his massive contract with the Dodgers, there was apparently a stipulation that he'd donate a million dollars to the Dodgers Dream Foundation.  In fact it turns out that many teams have similar contract clauses with their players - 109 athletes in total.  Well, the player's union is having nothing to do with it.  They are filing grievances in order to recover the donated money.  Apparently, the culminated total of those donations is so immense that players have discovered their inability to buy new yachts and private airplanes as quickly as they'd hoped, and they're not putting up with it!  Anyway, I'm sure that there aren't impoverished people out there who could've used all that money -- which probably could've been used as a tax write-off regardless -- so I for one hope the Player's Union is able to recover that much-needed cash. 

Greedy bastards.

Team USA's morale

And, lastly, another team of American superstar athletes assembled to win an international tournament has failed.  Team America has been eliminated from the World Baseball Classic by their archrivals, Team Japan by a final score of 9-4.  But chin up, patriots.  Last I checked, we'd still won the war.  But they do have the better Iron Chefs.  And the better cars.  But their economy is in even more turmoil than ours.  And even Tuffy Rhodes could be a star in their pansy-ass baseball league.  So, uh, we've got that going for us.

MLB Top 10: Left Fielders

We're only a few weeks away from Opening Day...can you feel the excitement building?  With Team USA eliminated from the WBC, many teams will start getting star players back into camp for the final couple weeks.  Our Top 10 previews continue today with the top left fielders in the game heading into 2009.  Most left fielders are both mashers and defensive liabilities, so this list was mostly compiled based on offensive contributions.  As always, comments and discussion are encouraged:

10. Johnny Damon, New York
Following an unusually sub par 2007 season, Damon responded with a surprising line of .303/.375/.461 in 2008, good for an OPS+ of 118 -- tied for the highest mark of his career.  He may not be able to play centerfield anymore, but he's still a very solid option at the top of the order.  Despite his age, he's also managed to steal at least 25 bases every year he's been in a Yankees uniform.  The defense may be gone (if it was ever really there -- just ask the guy who made the "Looks Like Jesus, Acts Like Judas, Throws Like Mary t-shirts), but he's still a pretty valuable commodity to have in the lineup.

9. Raul Ibanez, Philadelphia
Like so many others on this list, Raul Ibanez can hit, but he really has no semblance of defensive ability whatsoever (and Phillies fans have already seen that first hand this spring).  Since left field is rarely a source for web gems, we'll leave defense out of the conversation for a moment (the same rule applies to everyone else in this column), and just take a look at his offensive ability.  He may be turning 37 this year, but we have a pretty good feel for what he's able to do with the bat -- he'll give you an average around .290, with an OBP in the .350s and a SLG around .480.  And he compiled most of those numbers in Seattle, where pitchers usually thrive.  A move to Philadelphia could improve those power numbers a bit, perhaps bumping the home run total from the low 20s to the high 20s.  Still, it likely would have made more sense for the Phillies to keep Pat Burrell than to spend a ton of money on Ibanez.  Burrell won't be appearing on this list because he'll likely be DH'ing in Tampa Bay.

8. Adam Dunn, Washington
Yes, he hits for low average.  Yes, he strikes out a lot.  But he also packs some prodigious power and automatically makes Washington's lineup a bit more dangerous.  Dunn has hit at least 40 home runs in each of the past five seasons -- if you put up those numbers, I really couldn't care less how much you strike out.  You land somewhere on this list.  The same could be said for his career .381 OBP, by the way, which is incredible when you look at his career .247 batting average. 

7. Carlos Quentin, Chicago
Hard-Hittin' Carlos Quentin burst onto the scene with the White Sox last year, proving that it's never a good idea to give up on a prospect after only 400 ABs.  Arizona shipped Quentin to Chicago after struggling for parts of two seasons, electing to re-sign Eric Byrnes to a ridiculous contract instead.  Quentin responded by hitting 36 home runs in his first full season in Chicago, and may have hit 40 had he not run into injury issues late in the season.  It looks as though he's still dealing with some problems this spring -- his power has been non-existent -- but we won't hold that against him here.  He's going to be a star for years to come in Chicago.

6. Alfonso Soriano, Chicago
That ridiculous contract he signed with the Cubs a few offseasons ago will start to look pretty bad soon -- especially if the injuries keep piling up -- but you can't leave him off this list.  The fact that he's a lock for 30 HR assuming he plays somewhere between 115 and 130 games, has the arm strength to at least not make him worthless defensively, and has managed an OPS+ over 100 for the past seven years only solidifies his place here.  Sure, we don't really know how old he is (and as a result how many good years he has left) and he's constantly miscast as a leadoff hitter, but those aren't really faults of his own.  Keep him happy and healthy and you have a dynamic hitter that can sock any pitch -- from ankle low to letter high -- out of the park.

5. Carlos Lee, Houston
El Caballo is horribly overpaid, but so are many players at his position, so let's not hold that against him.  He's also pretty bad defensively, but again, so are most at his position.  He gets this spot on the list because he's been consistently above average for a decade now, and has only gotten more dangerous since becoming a much more patient hitter in Houston.  You can usually count on Lee to hit about 30 home runs a year, drive in between 110 and 120 runs, and walk nearly as much as he strikes out.  He only played in 115 games last season and will likely become more of a DH as he gets older, but luckily he has the Crawford Boxes in Houston to hide a lot of his defensive faults -- much like Manny Ramirez had the Green Monster.

4. Jason Bay, Boston
When Bay was sent to Boston as part of the Manny Ramirez deal, most of America got their first real taste of him.  Sure, he made a couple All-Star games with Pittsburgh following his Rookie of the Year win in 2004, but playing in Pittsburgh isn't a good way to get yourself onto SportsCenter.  Hitting .293/.370/.527 with 9 HR in only 49 games with Boston, on the other hand, is a great way to work yourself into some highlights.  Bay is still working out a contract extension with the Red Sox, but they'd be crazy to let him go -- he's no Manny, but he's a lock for around 30 HR a year (he's hit the mark in three of the past four years), is a great fit for Fenway and the Green Monster due to his ability to bang doubles off the wall, and provides some solid defense in left field.  Entering his age 30 season, he should have a handful of great seasons left in him.  Give him a 4 or 5 year deal and let him finish out his career in a Red Sox uniform -- you won't regret it, Boston.

3. Ryan Braun, Milwaukee
Braun's incredibly poor defense at third base during his rookie season facilitated a move to left field in 2008, where he actually wasn't all that bad.  Of course, he was helped by having an outstanding centerfield playing to his left in Mike Cameron, but Braun's athleticism and strong arm give Brewer fans hope that he can at least be passable defensively in the future.  Offensively, there's no need to worry.  Braun came into the league crushing some of the league's best pitching, and hasn't stopped since -- in 2008, he became the second fastest player in MLB history to reach the 50 career home run mark (behind Mark McGwire), and his 37 home runs last season made him only the second player in MLB history to hit at least 30 HR in each of his first two seasons (Albert Pujols being the first).  Braun signed a contract extension last season that will keep him in Milwaukee through the 2015 season, which instantly made him the face of the franchise -- there aren't many other players on the Brewers' roster that are likely to stick around just as long.  It looks like Braun is starting to get some national notoriety, as he tops many fantasy lists as the best outfielder available heading into the season.  If Braun's numbers continue to improve, we should probably expect him to top the 40-home run mark this year, with an outside chance at 50 if he gets off to a hot start.

2. Matt Holliday, Oakland
If you've been reading MVN Outsider for long, you're probably starting to get tired of me hyping up the Matt Holliday trade to Oakland, but I can't help it.  The A's landed one of the best all-around players in the game for cents on the dollar, instantly improved their chances of contending with the Angels for the AL West title, and at the very worst should get two compensation picks for him when he leaves after the year.  What's not to like about the deal?  Holliday's home run numbers may take a dip as he leaves Coors Field for the Coliseum, but the gaps should still provide him with plenty of opportunities to rack up the doubles.  Critics will say that his career numbers have been inflated by the Coors Effect, but you don't compile a career 131 OPS+ with the help of a hitter's park alone -- he's still a genuinely great hitter with great patience at the plate, and he should land a Teixeira-like deal next offseason (and don't be surprised if it's with the Yankees, either, who have done a good job of keeping that LF job open for now).

1. Manny Ramirez, Los Angeles
When you take defense out of the equation, could anyone else really be number one on this list?  By the time Manny retires, he may go down in history as one of the best right-handed hitters to ever play the game, and I'm not being that hyperbolic.  If he wasn't one of the best pure hitters around, the Dodgers wouldn't have been willing to put up with the headaches he caused all offseason, only to see him sign the same exact contract they were offering way back in November.  His presence in the lineup makes them a favorite to win the NL West despite having a mess of a starting rotation, and he should have no problem hitting at least 30-35 home runs again, even playing in Chavez Ravine.  Not only could we realistically see Manny crush homers into his 40s (meaning he has a chance at 600), but he's only 608 hits shy of 3000.  Considering he's averaged 150 hits a season over his career, he should be reaching that milestone withing the next three or four years.  Ramirez is likely looking like the 5th member of the 3000/500 club, and honestly has a chance at becoming only the third player with 3000 hits and 600 home runs (Hank Aaron and Willie Mays being the other).  Of those three, Ramirez would presumably have the highest career batting average -- he's currently at .314, while Aaron hit .305 and Mays hit .302.  Would that legitimately make Ramirez the greatest hitter to ever live, or do you have to take his era into account?  That's a topic for another day.

Fantasy Baseball: Starting Pitcher Rankings

1. JOHAN SANTANA, NYM

• He's just been too good for too long. Just don't take him earlier than the third.

2. TIM LINCECUM, SF

• His skills are ridiculous, he's just hasn't had a chance to show them much.

3. CC SABATHIA, NYY

• You have to think that all that work on his arm will take its toll? Right? Hmmm...

4. BRANDON WEBB, ARI

• His sinker-ball ways make him more reliable than others on this list. Con.sis.ten.cy.

5. JAKE PEAVY, SD

• He is one year removed from a Cy Young and people want to doubt him. Ridiculous.

6. DAN HAREN, ARI

• He's done nothing but get better every year. Could be top 3 by the end of '09.

7. JOSH BECKETT, BOS

• He really just got unlucky last year. His skills are among the best in the game.

8. ROY HALLADAY, TOR

• His numbers have fluctuated a bit. Not sure I like his chances this year.

9. COLE HAMELS, PHI

• He's flirting with the overwork problem. The spring training injury trouble doesn't help.

10. ROY OSWALT, HOU

• I defy you to find a steadier performer over the last decade. Yeah... I'll wait.
  

11. CHAD BILLINGSLEY, LAD

• Have you checked out his strikeout rate from '08? A future Cy Young candidate.

12. JAMES SHIELDS, TB

• His consistency over the last two years sets his fantasy value. Take a closer look.

13. JOHN LACKEY, LAA

• He pitches for a winner and he's still got the juice to deliver good numbers.

14. CLIFF LEE, CLE

• He will be solid this year, but I would bet the farm he never wins another Cy Young.

15. SCOTT KAZMIR, TB

• He walks too many batters and works too much, but his K% justifies this pick.

16. JON LESTER, BOS

• His story is all-time top five, but his skills are outpaced by the mythology.

17. A.J. BURNETT, NYY

• The Yankees are gonna regret the contract they gave him. You will too.

18. DAISUKE MATSUZAKA, BOS

• It's easy to get down on him because of all the guys he walked last year. Don't.

19. EDINSON VOLQUEZ, CIN

• His second half numbers last year were ugly. Consider that his floor.

20. FELIX HERNANDEZ, SEA

• One of these years he is going to put it together. Might as well be there when he does.

21. FRANCISCO LIRIANO, MIN

• He is fully recovered from Tommy John surgery, but he's still gotta find his stroke.

22. CARLOS ZAMBRANO, CHC

• His decline has been a long time coming. Draft him cautiously.

23. JAVIER VAZQUEZ, ATL

• Moving to the NL will do him a favor. A solid pitcher will great peripherals.
  

24. ADAM WAINWRIGHT, STL

• Don't expect a replica of his '08 numbers, but he could come close.

25. RICKY NOLASCO, FLA

• He walked almost nobody in the second half. A candidate for the Cy Young or the DL.

26. RICH HARDEN, CHC

• No one argues with his ability, except for his ability to stay healthy.

27. ERVIN SANTANA, LAA

• He would be ten slots higher if not for injury problems in spring training.

28. BRETT MYERS, PHI

• Rotation. Bullpen. Rotation. All the movement hurt his game. Buy low on him.

29. MATT CAIN, SF

• He's going cheap because his win total was meager in '08. Draft him. Really, draft him.

30. ZACK GREINKE, KC

• If he pitched for the Yankees he would be top 15. Think about that....

31. RYAN DEMPSTER, CHC

• I defy you to look at his career numbers and tell me that he can repeat '08.

32. JOSH JOHNSON, FLA

• Terrific second half in '08 and awesome spring numbers justify a flier.

33. YOVANI GALLARDO, MIL

• The projection systems love him, but caution implores me to hold off. Take him if he slips.

34. CHIEN-MING WANG, NYY

• You had better make up for his lack of Ks elsewhere, but he will flat out win games.

35. JOBA CHAMBERLAIN, NYY

• Other than CC he has the best stuff on the NYY staff. Can be pull it together though?

36. JUSTIN VERLANDER, DET

• I'm inclined to give him a mulligan for '08, just don't reach for his services.

37. ERIK BEDARD, SEA

• Remember when he was a top 50 draft pick? The skills are still there.

38. DEREK LOWE, ATL

• A solid starter who lacks sex appeal. His career ERA is 3.75 -- think about it.

39. SCOTT BAKER, MIN

• He is flying under the radar because he got no attention last year. Check him out.

40. TED LILLY, CHC

• He'll win games and strike out more than a few guys, but his ratios are not the best.

41. JERED WEAVER, LAA

• The talent is there, but his brother is such a donkey that he makes me nervous.

42. AARON HARANG, CIN

• Had a rough go of things in '08, but his '07 numbers justify a mid to late round flier.

43. JOHN DANKS, CHW

• Entering his third season after an enormous improvement from '07 to '08. Buy now.

44. KEVIN SLOWEY, MIN

• My friends at KFFL love this guy, but I am not quite sold.

45. CLAYTON KERSHAW, LAD

• He's got electric stuff and a pile of potential, but he's awful young.

46. JOHNNY CUETO, CIN

• Things got a little ugly after a nice start, but his raw talent is the real deal.

47. FAUSTO CARMONA, CLE

• You gotta think he's capable of bouncing back this year, but he won't K anybody.

48. DAVID PRICE, TB

• A textbook case of getting overly exuberant about a small sample size. DO NOT REACH.

49. MATT GARZA, TB

• Decent numbers in his first full season in '08. A good gamble in the late rounds.

50. WANDY RODRIGUEZ, HOU

• Great strikeout rate and an inflated BABIP in '08 equals an ideal late round pick in '09.
  

Fantasy Baseball: Outfielder Rankings

1. GRADY SIZEMORE, CLE

• If he could bat .300 he would probably be worth a number one pick.

2. RYAN BRAUN, MIL

• Gets the nod over Hamilton because he has been around just a little longer.

3. JOSH HAMILTON, TEX

• Sluggers like Hamilton thrive in the heat of the Texas summer. Slight risk though.

4. CARLOS BELTRAN, NYM

• Almost a lock for a stat line of .280, 20-25 HR, 100+ R, 100+ RBI, 18-24 SB.

5. MATT HOLLIDAY, OAK

• The first big question mark in the OF bunch. Is his talent legit or was it Coors-based?

6. ALFONSO SORIANO, CHC

• The 40/40 days are over, but a healthy Soriano is still one of the game's best.

7. B.J. UPTON, TB

• His performance in the '08 playoffs is making everyone forget his mediocre regular season.

8. MANNY RAMIREZ, LAD

• I would not draft him, but apparently Manny is ageless - can't last forever though.

9. CARL CRAWFORD, TB

• The lack of power has frustrated fantasy owners for years. Still, he is an SB machine.

10. JASON BAY, BOS

• He's in a walk year and he finally has a strong supporting cast. Could be a big season.

11. CARLOS LEE, HOU

• A model of consistency that was sidelined by a freak injury in '08. Pay full price.

12. ICHIRO SUZUKI, SEA

• An amazing hitter and terrific base-stealer, but he is 35-years-old.

13. CARLOS QUENTIN, CHW

• The skills he displayed last year are legit, but he has been fragile for years. Risky.

14. NICK MARKAKIS, BAL

• A young guy who has improved every year in the bigs. Upside = 30 HR / 15 SB.

15. MATT KEMP, LAD

• A solid five-category threat with some risk associated with his age (24) and inexperience.

16. ALEX RIOS, TOR

• We keep waiting for Rios to put it all together, but he's failed to do so. Meh...

17. VLADIMIR GUERRERO, LAA

• You have to respect the fact that he is a warrior, but he is aging more quickly than most.

18. JACOBY ELLSBURY, BOS

• He will make it to 600 at-bats this year; that equals 60+ stolen bases and a .290 average.

19. NATE MCLOUTH, PIT

• Lots of fantasy players are suspicious of his skills, but I'm not. Grab him if he slips.

20. CURTIS GRANDERSON, DET

• The right mix of solid skills and ample experience to make him a good selection.

21. SHANE VICTORINO, PHI

• There are questions about his health and whether or not '08 was a career year.

22. ADAM DUNN, WAS

• He Ks a lot and has a low batting average, but no one hits homers more consistently.

23. MAGGLIO ORDONEZ, DET

• His age makes me nervous (35), but he will deliver solid value if he's healthy.

24. COREY HART, MIL

• His K rate was frightening in '08, but how many guys are a virtual lock for 20/20?

25. HUNTER PENCE, HOU

• Sophomore slump in '08. He will rebound this year for 25+ homers and 10+ steals.

26. BOBBY ABREU, LAA

• One of the most productive fantasy players of the last decade. How much left in the tank?

27. RYAN LUDWICK, STL

• Lots of people are wondering if last year was fraudulent. Not entirely, but he won't repeat.

28. JAY BRUCE, CIN

• You always have to be careful about the hype around young players, but he's got skills.

29. JERMAINE DYE, CHW

• A good source of power in the early part of the middle rounds. He's old too though (35).

30. TORII HUNTER, LAA

• Not the sexiest pick, but he delivers value in all five fantasy categories.

31. VERNON WELLS, TOR

• One of the most inconsistent performers in the game has spring injury concerns.

32. RAUL IBANEZ, PHI

• Undervalued in Seattle the last few years, the move to Philly helps his fantasy value.

33. JOHNNY DAMON, NYY

• I have to wonder how much longer he can do it, but he'll help your team across the board.

34. CHRIS YOUNG, ARI

• His batting average is murderous, but he should bounce back after a disappointing '08.

35. ANDRE ETHIER, LAD

• Rumor has it that he will bat around Manny. That would do wonders for his fantasy value.

36. JAYSON WERTH, PHI

• Had a 20/20 season in '08 in only 418 at-bats. Undervalued in many leagues.

37. BRAD HAWPE, COL

• 3 seasons in a row he's hit 22+ homers. With the assist from Coors, he's worth drafting.

38. LASTINGS MILLEDGE, WAS

• The youngster (24 in April) has 20/20 potential and a full-time job in DC.

39. PAT BURRELL, TB

• Pat the Bat gets to DH full-time in Tampa. Still, his numbers should decline a little.

40. DELMON YOUNG, MIN

• The hype's been in place for a couple of years, but he hasn't delivered. Could be the year.
  

Fantasy Baseball ADP Report

In writing my Strategy Session post earlier this week, it occurred to me that very few fantasy websites have posted up-to-date ADP data from all the major fantasy providers. As such, I have taken the latest ADP figures from CBS, Yahoo, ESPN and Mock Draft Central and combined them into an easy-to-use spreadsheet. Because of legal and proprietary issues I am not able to display the actual figures from each of the websites, so you will just have to take my word for it, but the figures are current as of Thursday, March 19.

The spreadsheet is in MS Excel format and is usable in a number of ways. The first sheet of the document is just a simple Top 300 that has all of the players ranked with their Average ADP value. The second sheet is divided for use by fantasy players in 10-team leagues -- all the players are organized by round and by where they are being chosen within each round. The third and final sheet is the same thing for 12-team leagues. Any suggestions for how I might improve this in the future would be appreciated.

Download the 2009 MVN Fantasy Baseball ADP Report here. Enjoy!!