MVN Outsider

Fantasy Baseball: Atlanta Braves Closer Situation

Thu, 09 Jul 2009 11:00:00 -0500

At the start of the 2009 season, the Atlanta Braves had two options for closing games: Left-hander Mike Gonzalez and right-hander Rafael Soriano. Both have had injury issues during their big league careers, but if both stayed healthy the Braves would seem to be in good hands in the late innings.

Through Wednesday, Soriano has 10 saves to go along with a 1-1 record and a 1.55 ERA so far this season. He has been very effective, with 53 strikeouts (11.7 K/9) and 15 walks (3.3 BB/9) in 40.2 innings (39 appearances) in 2009.

Gonzalez has nine saves to go with a 3-1 record and a 3.05 ERA in 44 appearances (41.1 innings) this season. Like Soriano he has pitched very effectively, with 54 strikeouts (11.8 K/9) and 17 walks (3.7 BB/9) this season. Gonzalez also has nine holds through Wednesday.

Atlanta manager Bobby Cox has effectively alternated using Soriano and Gonzalez in save situations this season, but Soriano has four saves so far in July and appears to have taken hold of the job for the moment. Perhaps not coincidentally, Soriano has gotten all of the team's save opportunities since Gonzalez blew a save on June 30. For the season, Soriano is 10-for-11 in save opportunities and Gonzalez is 9-for-13 in save situations.

Going forward, both Soriano and Gonzalez could have nice fantasy value. Each seems like a good possibility for 15-20 saves (if they continue to split save chances) with nice peripheral numbers. So even if you own the guy who is not getting the save oppportunities for a stretch of time, he could still help you in strikeouts, ERA and WHIP if your league uses those categories. But if one guy is able to hold on to the job for a long period of time or even the rest of the season, that man would obviously have more fantasy value than the other.

This is a situation worth monitoring, especially since the Braves don't appear to be going away in NL East race and their offense has not been good, which could lead to close games and plenty of save opportunities.

Soriano is the guy most worthy of owning or adding to your team if he is available right now, but Gonzalez is still worth hanging onto if you own him and could be worth a speculative free agent addition if he is available in your league.

NFL Outsider Season Preview 2009: New Orleans Saints

Thu, 09 Jul 2009 08:00:00 -0500

NFL Outsider is hosting a season preview of all 32 teams. The NFL regular season begins on September 10; in the meantime follow the best NFL bloggers as they analyze their teams in this 2009 season preview.

Nola Chick from ChicksInTheHuddle.com gives insight into what to expect from this year's New Orleans Saints.

What's more frustrating than supporting a football team that can't put points on the board? Try supporting a team that leads the league in offense, averaging nearly 30 points a game, and yet still can't manage to make the playoffs. That's the kick to the gut reality of the 2008 New Orleans Saints.

Last season, our offense clicked on all...well most cylinders. (Lest we forget the repeated failure to convert on those dreaded 3^rd and shorts.) But even with the injuries to key players like Marques Colston and Reggie Bush, other players like Lance Moore and Pierre Thomas stepped up to fill the offensive gaps. As for Drew Brees, he played like the MVP-caliber quarterback we've come to know and love. But that defense...oh the dreaded defense.

Luckily, the Saints front office chose to no longer ignore the tackle-missing elephant in the room this off-season. They succumb to the adage that while offense sells tickets, defense wins games and went on the equivalent of a free agency "Supermarket Sweep." By adding veterans like Jabari Greer and Darren Sharper to the secondary, the Saints have significantly reduced the likelihood of us fans watching Steve Smith, Antonio Bryant or Roddy White blaze into the end zone untouched. (Thereby reducing the likelihood I'll try to drown myself in a puddle of nacho cheese.) The Saints kept their defensive focus in tact from free agency to the draft with key acquisitions like Malcolm Jenkins, safety Chip Vaughn, and linebacker Stanley Arnoux.

These new additions will be under the guidance of another fresh face on the Saints' sidelines, defensive coordinator Gregg Williams. Williams was regarded as a hot commodity this offseason. But much like the head cheerleader, the Saints always get their guy. The former coordinator for the Redskins and Jaguars has had a rough go of it the past few years. He was regarded by some as an overrated, "mean-spirited bully" during his tenure with Joe Gibbs. And it's not exactly reassuring that the Jags gave him the boot after only one season. Still the Saints and (fans) have high hopes that the Williams who turned the Titans into a defensive powerhouse in the late 90s will do the same for the boys in black and gold. If nothing else, I ask that he somehow inspire, will or perhaps even seduce our highly paid defensive ends into getting pressure on a quarterback...any quarterback...even a nip at Kyle Orton's ankles will do. Of course, we won't be able to evaluate his success rate until after Charles Grant and Will Smith return from their 4 game suspensions for use of a banned substance. (Sigh)

As for which of the new additions will actually make the roster, let's just say one of them better be the punter we wasted a draft pick on. Beyond that, here are a couple undrafted rookie free agents to keep an eye out for: Wide receiver Adrian Arrington and Wisconsin linebacker Jonathan Casillas, who's also exhibited safety skills during his time in the Big 10. On the offensive side, all eyes will be on Herb Donaldson of Western Illinois University. Donaldson brings to the table crucial short yardage skills, which just might perfectly complement the newly bulked up Pierre Thomas.

All in all, no one can say the Saints didn't make an effort to address their most pressing issues this offseason. If the picks live up to their potential, we've got a more than decent shot of capturing the NFC South. Here's hoping none of them suffers any Shockey-Esque "dehydration" episodes between now and training camp...

MLB Crystal Ball: Phils Have Best Chance for Halladay; Deadline Trade Unlikely

Wed, 08 Jul 2009 16:38:37 -0500

Yesterday, the Toronto Blue Jays said that they would consider dealing ace Roy Halladay. As a result, they sent the sports blogosphere into a frenzy -- fans of any team that needs pitching were suddenly trying to piece together possible deals, hoping their team could land this year's version of CC Sabathia. The comparisons to Sabathia aren't really fair, but not for the reasons you would suspect...Halladay may be a better deal for a lot of teams, due to the fact that he's signed through next season as well, and won't just be a rental.

In reality, though, it appears there may only be a few possible suitors for Halladay if he does end up being traded. There are a couple things to consider -- for one, Halladay has 10/5 trade rights. Since he's played at least 10 years in the big leagues and the past 5 with Toronto, he has the right to veto any trade. Second, the Blue Jays don't have to deal him during the season if their exact demands aren't met. In many ways, it'd be better for them to wait until the offseason to deal the former Cy Young winner. Teams are more willing to piece together blockbuster deals in the offseason, when they have the chance to fill any holes they create through the trade. Any team dealing for Halladay this season would be reluctant to give the Blue Jays anything more than prospects -- they're presumably dealing for Halladay because they're in the hunt for a playoff spot, and they'd be reluctant to give up much major league talent.

So who does that leave as far as in-season suitors? It seems like it would have to be a team that has great depth in the minors, and the pieces that Toronto's looking for in a mid-season trade. J.P. Ricciardi reportedly wants a shortstop in the deal, along with some other premium bats.

Whenever a team says they're looking for a large assortment of prospects in a deal, there's a pretty good bet someone will come along and say "Well, what about Milwaukee?" Despite trading Matt LaPorta in the Sabathia deal last summer (exactly a year ago this week), the Brewers still have a pair of highly-hyped prospects in third baseman Mat Gamel and shortstop Alcides Escobar. Doug Melvin says that neither player can be had, though, even presumably for a player of Halladay's caliber. Last year's first round pick, infielder Brett Lawrie, could be an attractive trading chip for the Blue Jays considering his advanced bat at a young age -- he's only 19 but has been hitting well with wood bats for years as a member of the Canadian national team.

Even if the Brewers aren't willing to part with Alcides Escobar, they could possibly trade their current shortstop, J.J. Hardy. While Hardy has been struggling to get hits to fall this year, he's a former All-Star who has hit over 20 home runs in each of the past two seasons and had been among the leaders in OPS for National League shortstops prior to this season. Hardy's much more polished offensively than Escobar, but his offensive production from the shortstop position could make him more expensive than the Blue Jays would like. That's not even mentioning the large hole the Brewers would be creating by trading Hardy mid-season, when there are mixed reports as to whether or not Escobar is ready to make the jump to the majors. The Brewers would likely need to trade one of (or both) Escobar and Gamel to get Ricciardi to listen, and the Brewers simply cannot afford to keep trading away their best prospects for rentals.

Considering that, it's pretty easy to see why the Phillies seem to be the leading candidate at this point. They're the defending world champions and it looks like they'll have a great chance at getting back to the playoffs this year, so it's a good bet that Halladay would accept a trade there. They have enough premium talent in their farm system to swing a deal, and since Philadelphia plays in a larger market, the loss of prospects wouldn't hurt them nearly as much as it would hurt the Brewers. Philadelphia also has something that the Brewers don't have -- a top of the line pitching prospect that could replace Halladay sometime in the near future. Kyle Drabek is pitching well in AA this year, and projects to be a pretty good MLB pitcher. The closest thing the Brewers have to a top pitching prospect -- 2007 first round pick Jeremy Jeffress -- is currently serving a 100-game suspension for a failed test of a "drug of abuse". One more positive test and Jeffress will be banned from baseball. Needless to say, that kind of thing can kill a guy's prospect status pretty quickly.

Philadelphia has the other pieces to make the deal work, too. Jason Donald, Lou Marson, and Michael Taylor have also come up in fantasy proposals. Jason Knapp and Dominic Brown are two players that Toronto could also be interested in, but talking about them in a trade would likely be like discussing Escobar and Gamel in any trade that involves Milwaukee -- it's probably not going to happen, unless the team can get a commitment from Halladay past 2010.

So yes, the Phillies probably have the best chance to land Halladay if they can convince Ricciardi that it's worth trading the face of his franchise. If it takes a package similar to the ones that it took to move Erik Bedard, Dan Haren, or Mark Teixeira, would it even be worth it to a team like Philadelphia, who already proved they can win a world title without a pitcher like Halladay aiding Cole Hamels?

My guess? Halladay ultimately won't be moved, or at least not until the lesser options on the market -- players like Doug Davis and Javy Vazquez -- get snatched up and teams still looking for pitching get desperate. That's not to say that we should stop thinking up of dream deals. After all, that's half the fun of the trade deadline.

NFL Outsider Season Preview 2009: Carolina Panthers

Wed, 08 Jul 2009 08:05:00 -0500

NFL Outsider is hosting a season preview of all 32 teams. The NFL regular season begins on September 10; in the meantime follow the best NFL bloggers as they analyze their teams in this 2009 season preview.

Joe Coward from CatCrave.com gives insight into what to expect from this year's Carolina Panthers
Carolina Panthers, 2009 Season Preview

Some Negative Comments

Most Carolina fans think of the horrendous playoff game Delhomme last played more often than the season opener he won for Carolina in San Diego. Some call Delhomme's extension a blessing in disguise, for salary cap room, if nothing else. In time we will sort it out and see if a contract extension for Delhomme was right or wrong. Some worry about Julius Peppers. He will have a solid season in 2009 if he wants to move elsewhere that bad in 2010.

Some Positive Comments

Carolina has become a force as a team, and is one of the best run organizations in football. Even in a bad season Carolina is more dangerous than most teams. John Fox is a fixture in the NFL, and Carolina is always a possible contender. With defenders such as Jon Beason, Thomas Davis, Chris Harris and Julius Peppers on the roster, and playmakers like Steve Smith, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart on the offensive side of the ball, Carolina is never a team that can be taken lightly.

Key Losses: Ken Lucas, Nick Goings, D.J. Hackett, Geoff Hangartner, Frank Omiyale, Jeremy Bridges.

Key Additions: Rookies Drafted: DE Everette Brown, CB Sherrod Martin, DT Corvey Irvin, RB Mike Goodson, FB Tony Fiammetta, OG Duke Robinson, and CB Captain Munnerlyn. Undrafted Rookie Free Agents who have already signed contracts: OT Gerald Cadogan, DT Marlon Favorite, RB Jamall Lee.

Returning from Injuries: LB Dan Connor, WR/RS Ryne Robinson, and WR/RS Jason Carter...All three of these players will likely compete to start at their respective positions as well as to acquire a role on Special Teams.

Depth Issues

Offensive Line: Carolina may have the best starting offensive line in football...The backups appear to be a question mark, but I think all is fine unless they get an injury bug. Gerald Cadogan and Duke Robinson are rookies that can step in as back-ups to get the job done if called upon.

The Backfield: Double Trouble should again be the most formidable RB duo in the NFL and FB Tony Fiammetta will be ready to step in for Brad Hoover if needed. Jake Delhomme is a solid starter at QB; however, Carolina's back-up quarterbacks are questionable. Carolina did nothing in the off-season to stabilize the back-up QB position or provide Delhomme with legitimate competition at the starting position. The drop-off in the quarterback ability behind Jake Delhomme is disconcerting.

Wide Receivers: Behind Steve Smith, Mushin Muhammad, and Dwayne Jarrett as the number 3 receiver (by default), Jason Carter and Ryne Robinson will return from injuries in 2009. Add rookies Mike Goodson and Larry Beavers into the mix, and Carolina is pretty deep at WR for a team that typically has only three on the 53 man roster each Sunday.

The Defensive Line: Carolina's Defensive line is solid, however it still lacks the run-stuffing ability Carolina hasn't had since trading Kris Jenkins to the Jets. They have acquired some back-ups at DT with Corvey Irvin and Marlon Favorite, and have a nice rotation of young speed rushers in Charles Johnson, Hilee Taylor and Everette Brown.

Line Backers: The Panthers are solid at linebacker and it is likely one of Carolina's deepest positions. Dan Connor should compete with 9-year veteran Na'il Diggs for a starter position.

The Secondary: Going into the off-season, this was one of Carolina's most glaring weaknesses. With the addition of two draft picks, Carolina's secondary went from thin to abundant rather quickly. If the starting order moves in linear fashion, then Richard Marshall will be the number two Corner opposite Chris Gamble, C.J. Wilson will be the Nickel, and Sherrod Martin and Captain Munnerlyn will be their back-ups. The Safety position could have benefited with a Patrick Chung kind of guy out of the draft, but Chris Harris is a beast and Charles Godfrey is reliable.

Possible Fallers in 2009: Dwayne Jarrett, Na'il Diggs, Brad Hoover

Potential Risers in 2009: Jason Carter, Mike Goodson, Dan Connor, Tony Fiammetta,

The biggest Wild Card for Carolina for 2009: Special Teams. Carolina will be able to stay close in many of their games in 2009. The difference maker for the Panthers will be Special Teams play. If one of Carolina's Return Specialists breaks out as a game-changer the way Steve Smith emerged, points scored on Special Teams could turn a potential 6 and 10 season into a 10 and 6 season.

2009 Season Record Prediction: 9 and 7.

NFL Crystal Ball: McNair Legacy will not include Hall of Fame Induction

Tue, 07 Jul 2009 18:20:00 -0500

Although details of Steve McNair's homicide are still forthcoming, the big question around the media surrounding his death has to do with his legacy. People want to speculate on how history will judge the former NFL Quarterback. He will be remembered as a pro bowler, a great teammate, a community stalwart, and a guy who gave his life in one of the more bizarre murder cases ever surrounding a professional athlete.

He will be remembered for all these things separately, and probably not as one thing universally. Surely, different people around him were affected differently by his actions, and I think we can all agree that the world was a better place when Steve McNair was still with us.

Ultimately though, he's going to be famous for one thing above all: his performance as an NFL quarterback. The question in this column: should Steve McNair be considered for the Hall of Fame, and more specifically, should the events of this July 4th have an effect on the voting process.

I know I'll be in the minority when I say this, but Steve McNair's hall of fame candidacy is likely to be improved by the tragedy and surprise events leading to his death, and more than that, I think it should improve his chances of making the hall of fame.

But, I just don't think the total package is going to be enough to get him there. I'm going to add some analysis to back up this point, so if you feel that it's too early to talk about his hall of fame credentials given the circumstances, I implore this to be the final sentence you read in this column.

--------------------

Steve McNair's prime lasted from 2000-2003. Other top quarterbacks of his era include:

Rich Gannon (prime years 1999-2002)
Kurt Warner (prime years 1999-2001)
Trent Green (prime years 2002-2005)
Daunte Culpepper (prime years 2000-2004)
Kerry Collins (prime years 2000-2002)

The consistently high standards of the hall of fame suggest that only one of those players is "likely" to get in one day, and that's Warner. Warner's numbers from the Rams days are ridiculously cartoonish, and when McNair and Warner faced off in the super bowl, it was Warner who came out on top. Warner is 1-2 in Super Bowls in his career, and both of his losses came to guys whose prime years fell in the following era (post 2004 illegal contact rule changes), the two guys who beat him are going to have strong cases when they become eligible.

If Steve McNair is to be considered a hall of fame performer, we need solid evidence that he was as good if not better than the Gannons, Greens, and Culpeppers of the world.

Number One Receivers

McNair's prime years were also the four best years of Derrick Mason's career. Mason has a legitimate shot at the hall of fame, as he's been maybe the 5th or 6th best receiver of this decade (after Moss, Owens, Holt, and Harrison).

Gannon threw to Tim Brown and Jerry Rice, two hall of famers who were not anywhere near the primes of their career when he played with them.

Green had Tony Gonzalez as his number one receiver, but never a true threat on the outside.

Culpepper threw to Moss back when he was [Randy Moss!]

In order of individual achievement, you'd rank them Gannon, then Green, then McNair, then Culpepper.

Team Achievement in Prime

Rich Gannon went 41-23 in the regular season in his prime years, and then 4-3 in the playoffs with one AFC Title (in which he beat McNair's Titans)

Trent Green went 38-26 in the regular season in his prime years, and then lost his only playoff game. Green started a second playoff game in 2006, after he missed most of the year injured, which he lost (to Manning's Colts in both games).

Both Gannon and Green were hamstrung by lousy defenses, although Green moreso than Gannon.

Culpepper's Vikings went 36-37 with him at the helm, thanks in part to a lousy defense, but they made the playoffs twice and Culpepper was 2-2 with two excellent playoff performances.

McNair actually had the benefit of a great defense, and compiled a 40-20 regular season record during the prime of his career. In those four years, he won only 2 of 5 playoff starts (2-3), losing his only AFC Title game appearence in 2002. McNair's super bowl run came a year before his prime, but should not be forgotten in this analysis. He won all three AFC playoff games, including the music city miracle, before losing the super bowl.

This should be ranked Gannon, then McNair, then Culpepper, and finally Green.

MVP Seasons and Near MVP Seasons

Gannon and McNair only had really one true MVP season each (which they both won), although both were in the running in the two years leading up to their MVP season. Trent Green did not win an MVP, but in both 2002 and 2004 could have easily taken the award. Same deal with Culpepper, no MVPs, but two seasons in which he was as deserving as the player who did win it, 2002 and 2004.

I'd rank this one Green, then Culpepper, then McNair, and finally Gannon

Conclusion

I really wanted to find some evidence that I could point to and say that "this number says that Steve McNair is a deserving hall of famer", but I've found that his career is pretty undistingulishable from the other top QBs of his era. His performances fit perfectly in with these other ring-less players who were the dominant quarterbacks at the turn of the decade.

Steve McNair will be remembered as one of the most dominant players right at the turn of the decade, but likely not as a deserving hall of famer, even if his tragedy inspires some extra 'yes' votes.

MLB Outsider -- The Shoulda-Been All Stars AL Edition

Tue, 07 Jul 2009 18:05:00 -0500

On Saturday I posted an article of the players who I believed should have started in the All Star Game for the NL based purely on their statistics. Since then, the All Star rosters have been announced, but I have intentionally avoided reading them until I can present my second part of this entirely unbiased series.

I'll note one thing before I jump into it -- the basis of my evaluations primarily comes from comparing the non-traditional stats done by Fangraphs along with the more traditional stats as presented by Baseball Reference. This is my way of considering harder-to-understand things like the defensive ability of a player I've almost never seen play -- and in these evaluations, defense does count.

C Joe Mauer, Twins. Undoubtedly, Mauer has been the best catcher this season in either league. Although he doesn't have enough at bats to "qualify," Mauer leads all AL catchers in hits, homers, RBI, and consequently AVG and OPS.

1B Justin Morneau, Twins. This is actually quite a toss-up between Morneau and Kevin Youkilis, who's killing the ball in Boston. (And actually Russell Branyan should also almost get the nod just as a WTF?! gesture, since nobody but perhaps his mama thought he could have the kind of year he's having.) Morneau is presently batting .323 with 21 homers, 69 RBI, and a 1.000 OPS. Not bad, unless you're Albert Pujols.

2B Ben Zobrist, Rays. There have been few surprises bigger than Zobrist this season. The Rays slugger isn't hitting as well as Aaron Hill, although in more than 140 fewer at bats he has more doubles, nearly as many homers, and a dramatically higher OPS. On top of that, Fangraphs has Zorbist as being a dramatically better fielding second baseman than anybody else in the AL.

SS Marco Scutaro, Blue Jays. It's really a push between Scutaro and Derek Jeter, who is dramatically outhitting the Jays shortstop. The difference is that Scutaro is a much better fielder, which compensates dramatically for their differences in offensive output. Still, Scutaro is batting .280 with an impressive .381 OBP, he's got 25 doubles, 6 homers, and 7 steals.

3B Evan Longoria, Rays. Longoria's closest competition is Brandon Inge, but he still powers past the league at third base. So far this year the young Ray is batting .290 with 16 homers, 64 RBI, and an OPS of .914.

LF Carl Crawford, Rays. Unbelievably, Crawford was passed over. But Fangraphs reports that he is presently the best left fielder in the AL, despite his lack of power. So far in '09 Crawford is batting .318 with an OBP of .376, along with 16 doubles, 3 triples, 8 homers, and 41 steals in 48 tries. It's true that Jason Bay has 19 homeruns, but Crawford's complete offensive game makes up for it and Bay is defensively atrocious in left field.

CF Torii Hunter, Angels. It's actually closer than it looks. Hunter is easily the best offensive center fielder in the AL this year, but his defense is so atrocious that he's not that much better than Franklin Gutierrez, who is playing his way toward a Gold Glove. As for Hunter, he is batting .307 with 19 doubles, 17 homers, 65 RBI, and an OPS of .947.

RF Ichiro Suzuki, Mariners. Ichiro does not appear intent on slowing down. There are right fielders with more traditionally accepted numbers -- like Jermaine Dye, who's batting .291 with 20 homers but is a defensive mess -- but nobody is as defensively and offensively potent as Ichiro. He's presently batting .362 with 16 doubles, 3 triples, 6 homers, 20 RBI, 17 steals, and an OPS of .882.

SP Zack Greinke, Royals. He's come back to earth since his Bob Gibsonesque start, but Greinke remains the best starting pitcher in the AL. Through 17 starts he's 10-4 with a 2.00 ERA and 120 strikeouts in 121.1 innings of work.

Back-Ups

C Victor Martinez, Indians; Kurt Suzuki, Athletics
1B Russell Branyan, Mariners
2B Ian Kinsler, Rangers; Aaron Hill, Blue Jays
SS Derek Jeter, Yankees
3B Kevin Youkilis, Red Sox; Brandon Inge, Tigers
LF Juan Rivera, Angels
CF Franklin Gutierrez, Mariners; Curtis Granderson; Tigers
RF Shin-Soo Choo, Indians

SP Roy Halladay, Blue Jays; Edwin Jackson, Tigers; Felix Hernandez, Mariners; Nick Blackburn, Twins; Mark Buehrle, White Sox
RP Joe Nathan, Twins; Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox; Mariano Rivera, Yankees; David Aardsma, Mariners; Brian Fuentes, Angels

By count, that goes as follows: Twins (4), Mariners (4), Tigers (3), Rays (3), Blue Jays (3), Angels (3), Indians (2), Yankees (2), Red Sox (2), Royals (1), Athletics (1), Rangers (1), White Sox (1). That leaves only the Orioles as a team without an All Star pick. A truly mediocre team, perhaps the best pick would be to substitute outfielder Adam Jones with Curtis Granderson.

So. How different are the "deserving" picks from the real ones? You still probably have a better idea than I do, but I'll be looking in depth at the real picks on Wednesday and comparing.

Fantasy Baseball: Oakland A's Middle Infielders

Tue, 07 Jul 2009 12:00:00 -0500

If you're like me (and many other fantasy owners?), you've had trouble finding good, consistent options for your middle infield spots this season if you did not draft one of the top options at those spots.

The Oakland A's may not seem to be a fantasy goldmine, but they have a couple of players that may be able to help you fill the middle infield spots that can be tough to find production from. Here are three players that call the east side of San Francisco Bay home and may be able to help you depending on your league format.

2B Mark Ellis

Ellis recently returned from the 60-day DL due to a strained calf, and is hitting .225 with two home runs and seven RBI along with three stolen bases in 89 at-bats this season. Not outstanding numbers, but he has proven to be a decent power-speed combination when healthy.

Ellis suffered a torn labrum in his right shoulder in 2008, but did not spend much time on the DL. The injury did appear to effect his production though, as he hit just .201 in the second half of the season on his way to hitting .233 with 12 home runs, 41 RBI and 14 stolen bases last season.

In 2007, his last fully healthy season, Ellis hit .276 with 19 HR, 76 RBI and nine stolen bases in 583 at-bats. He obviously will have trouble duplicating his 2007 numbers this season, but if he can stay healthy for the rest of the season double-digit home runs and stolen bases do seem possible. That could make him a solid mixed league option for the rest of the season, and definitely worth considering in AL-only leagues if he is available.

SS Orlando Cabrera

Cabrera is hitting .253 with four home runs and 28 RBI in 328 at-bats this season. Not outstanding, but he may be heating up. Cabrera has homered in two straight games, and is hitting .333 (8-for-24) so far in July.

If you're in need of a SS, and are willing to take a risk, Cabrera could be a solid option is he is available in your league. His fantasy value is higher in AL-only leagues at this point, but he could also be worth consideration in deeper mixed leagues if he can continue his recent hot hitting.

2B/3B Adam Kennedy

Kennedy was acquired via trade from the Tampa Bay Rays in May, and is hitting .296 with six home runs, 28 RBI and nine stolen bases in 213 at-bats this season. He has played 47 games at 2B this season, but has now played eight games at 3B since Ellis returned to the lineup in late June.

Since he is likely to add dual position eligibility soon, Kennedy's fantasy value could rise some. Even so, his value is definitely higher in AL-only leagues and that is unlikely to change with his move to 3B, where his numbers will be dwarfed compared to his peers at the position.

NFL Outsider Season Preview 2009: Kansas City Chiefs

Tue, 07 Jul 2009 08:00:00 -0500

NFL Outsider is hosting a season preview of all 32 teams. The NFL regular season begins on September 10; in the meantime follow the best NFL bloggers as they analyze their teams in this 2009 season preview.

Josh Knox from KCChiefsFootball.com shares his insight on the 2009 Kansas City Chiefs. Check in on other teams here.

Chiefs 2009 NFL Season Preview

Last year was a very rough year to be a Chief. One positive that can be taken from this is finishing 2-14 there is really nowhere to go but up and Chiefs seem to doing everything in their power to make the best on and off the field decisions to help their organization for both now and the future..

Let's talk about some of the key losses for the Chiefs and then we will go on and see what they added. .

Key Losses: Carl Peterson, Herm Edwards, Tony Gonzalez, Donnie Edwards, Patrick Surtain

If you watched the team play last season then you know that Edwards and Surtain, especially from from a production stand point, should really not be considered key losses (Edwards I put on there out of respect and Surtain... well, for names sake I guess). The biggest loses were obviously Tony G, Herm and Carl and the only one that really stings out of that group is Tony Gonzalez. You just can't replace the best TE of all time, but at the same time having the best TE over the last decade apparently doesn't get you any playoff victories either.

New Additions: Scott Pioli, Todd Haley, Matt Cassel, Mike Vrabel , Zach Thomas, Mike Goff, Bobby Engram, Monty Beisel

The biggest thing the Chiefs did in the off season was the hiring of Scott Pioli. He brings an attitude and expectation for winning, something that was desperately needed at One Arrowhead Drive. One of the first things Pioli said in KC was "you don't need the best 53 players, you need the right 53 players". He then went on to add some much needed veteran leadership to the Chiefs by acquiring Mike Vrabel, Zack Thomas, Bobby Engram, and Mike Goff. Oh, and he also got the Chiefs a young QB who could be a leader on this team for years to come in Matt Cassel. All of the moves seem right, now we just have to see if they work out.

I think this is also a good spot to mentioned that the Chiefs kept Offense Coordinator Chan Gailey. Gailey is a very experienced play caller in the NFL and was one of the lone bright spots last season as he showed his worth by adapting a new offense mid-season that better suited the players he had.

Depth: Thanks to the draft and off season additions the Chiefs are deeper at almost every position this season. A position where the Chiefs are probably the deepest is defensive back.

One thing that you have to give Herm credit for was his ability to find quality defensive backs. For most of last season the Chiefs had two rookie starting CB's (Brandon Flowers, Brandon Carr) and another promising rookie at nickel (UDFA Maurice Leggett). These young corners did a very good job last season, especially when you consider that the Chiefs had absolutely no pass rush. This season the Chiefs added another young corner via the NFL Draft in Donald Washington, who has great physical tools to add to the mix, and more importantly should have added some help on the defensive line with #3 overall pick Tyson Jackson. With even an average pass rush the Chiefs have a chance to have a great defensive backfields for years to come, I would look for one of the Brandon's to emerge as a Pro Bowl caliber player in the near future.

Prediction: Compared to last year the Chiefs are better at every position on the field (except TE) and they are still in the AFC West. The Chiefs are by far the most improved team in the West. The Broncos appear to be falling apart, the Chargers did nothing significant, and the Raiders have so much trust in JaMarcus Russell that they signed Jeff Garcia. Competing in the West this season is not out of the question for the Chiefs.

MLB Top 10: Yanks Making a Push

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 16:45:10 -0500

We're entering the final week before the All-Star break, but most teams have already passed the official midway point of their seasons. So now that we're half way there in crowning the 2009 world champions, who are the hottest teams in baseball entering this week?

1. New York Yankees (48-33)
The Yanks continue to inch their way towards division-leading Boston, trailing in the AL East by a single win. It's sure to be one hell of a race down the stretch, even if some meaning is lessened by the fact that both teams are likely assured of reaching the playoffs. For now, I'm sure Yankee fans will take the moral victory of Mark Teixeira beating out Kevin Youkilis for the starting 1B spot on the All-Star team.

2. Texas Rangers (45-35)
It looks like the AL West is going to have a very competitive division race down the stretch, which is something that few people were expecting at the start of the year. The Rangers have climbed back into a first place tie to start this week, thanks in part to taking two of three from the Angels last week. They have another series against the Halos this week -- this time at Angel Stadium -- before closing out the first half in Seattle.

3. Los Angeles Angels (45-35)
Despite losing last week's series against the Rangers, they'll have a chance to get even this week. They rebounded nicely from that series loss, taking 3 of 4 from the Orioles, pushing their record in the past 10 games to 7-3. The pitching, which has been inconsistent at best this year, seems to have settled down recently. Considering what this team has been through off the field, heading into the All-Star break with a division lead would do wonders for morale.

4. Minnesota Twins (43-40)
After winning 7 of 10, the Twins now find themselves just two games out of first in the AL Central. That's due in large part to the Twins taking two of three from the division-leading Tigers over the weekend. Now the Twins will face a bit of a test as the host the wildcard-leading Yankees starting Tuesday night. If the Twins can find a way to take a series from the Yanks, it would go a long way in solidifying their status as a potential playoff team.

5. Florida Marlins (43-40)
With the Phillies and Mets both struggling immensely, the Marlins have slowly crept up the division standings and enter this week only one game behind Philly for the NL East lead. They're also only two games behind the Giants for the wildcard spot, and considering they kick off a West Coast road trip tonight in San Francisco, they have an excellent opportunity to make up some ground in that race as well.

6. Chicago Cubs (40-39)
Despite many being ready to bury the Cubs as recently as last week, but after taking three of four from Milwaukee over the weekend, Chicago's only 2.5 games behind division-leading St. Louis in the NL Central. With Aramis Ramirez set to return to the lineup this week, the Cubs are likely getting the equivalent of a big mid-season trade. Will it be enough for the Cubs to finally start playing up to their ability and become serious division contenders? We'll have to wait and see.

7. Philadelphia Phillies (42-37)
The Phils have been treading water for awhile now, and even fell in danger of drowning a few days ago. Luckily, they were able to sweep the Mets over the weekend to hang onto their division lead. How long will they be able to hold off the likes of the Marlins? That depends on how far their pitching can take them. It looked to be improved over the weekend, but everyone has managed to look good against the joke that's become the Mets' lineup in the past few weeks.

8. Chicago White Sox (42-40)
Prior to splitting a weekend series in Kansas City, the White Sox had won five games in a row, and seven of nine. Despite only being two games over .500, the White Sox have worked their way into the AL Central discussion, and could make a charge to the front if they're able to put together a deadline deal. The problem, of course, is that no one seems to be selling. The White Sox could use another productive bat, but do they have the pieces to put a deal together?

9. Seattle Mariners (42-39)
The Mariners sure seem determined to let everyone know that the AL West isn't just a two-team race. Despite losing two of three to the Yankees last week, they responded by walking into Boston and nearly sweeping the Red Sox, only losing the series finale on Sunday. Felix Hernandez making the All-Star team is well-deserved. Russell Branyan being left out altogether -- not even making the final vote ballot -- is an injustice, if not only because we'll miss out on seeing him in a home run derby. I'm convinced he could hit one off the famous Arch. I don't care if it's more than 1,000 feet from home plate.

10. Los Angeles Dodgers (52-30)
Manny Mania is back, but the Dodgers were doing well for themselves in his absence. While his bat will surely help the lineup, the question now is if the team will be able to deal with the constant media attention, which will be magnified whenever the team goes on the road. They'll still win the division easily, but their chances in October will depend on how well Manny's teammates will respond to the distractions he's brought upon the entire organization.

MLB Stock Market - Drama Edition

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 13:29:14 -0500

We sure have some fun things going on right now. The All Star Rosters have been announced -- did your favorite player get left off the list? Chances are, more than a few deserving names did. (I am intentionally not scoping out the full lists until after I've finished my piece on the Shoulda-Been All Stars: AL Edition.) On top of the All Star drama, we've got players angry at organizations, organizations angry at players, and teams finally sold after the longest Waiting for the Bill to be Paid period evar. (Yes, "evar.") Let's take a closer look...

Rising
The Ire of Brewers Star Ryan Braun
Braun, the young Brewers slugger, apparently feels that his team needs help if they want to reach the playoffs again. He's calling for GM Doug Melvin to fix the team, probably on the heels of losing 3 of 4 from the hapless Cubs. Here's an idea -- perhaps Melvin could improve his team's defense in the field? He's got this one mouthy player who can hit the ball a ton but tends to take the field with a concrete glove. In all seriousness, though, Braun is right. The NL Central is a division of teams who apparently have a shared desire to lose. Sadly for Milwaukee, though, there is no CC Sabathia on their horizon. They're in for a long summer.

Albert Pujols's Offensive Output
Seriously, what the hell? Albert Pujols seems to think that it's 1998 and he's in a race with teammate Mark McGwire and Cub Sammy Sosa for the homerun crown. The 29-year-old is presently on pace to hit 60 homeruns, drive in 159 RBI, steal 19 bases, and bat .336. What can I say except "wow."

Holding
The Close Competitions in the Various Divisions
In the AL East, 1 game separates the Red Sox from the Yankees while the Rays incorporate the Creeping Llama strategy. In the Central, 3 teams are within 2.5 games of each other. In the West, all but Oakland is within striking distance of a divisional lead. Over in the NL, the Phillies, Marlins, Mets, and Braves are separated by no more than 4 games. In the Central, five of the division's six teams are 4 games out -- or less. In the West, the Dodgers have a stranglehold, but it's a lead that's shrunk in recent days.

Sure, there's still half a season of baseball to be played. Absolutely, some teams will drop off quickly. Still, it's a testament to the game that so many teams are in it to win it.

The Pensive Excitement of Cub Fans Now that the Sale is Near Completion
Good news, Cub fans! After eight long months, the Ricketts family has finally found that last hundred million hiding under a couch in their living room! Now they just need approval from the other baseball owners and the Cubs will theoretically have their hands untied and may be able to expand salary and upgrade their team again. Then again, it took Tom Ricketts a very, very long time to find the money to finalize this deal. Perhaps the Cubs won't be expanding salary now that they are no longer owned by a massive multi-media conglomerate.

Falling
Randy Johnson's Health
The Big Unit sprained his shoulder the other day. He's presently a 303 game winner who's been competent-if-unspectacular for the Giants. Side note: a co-worker of mine saw me looking at Johnson's stats and said "isn't that guy really old?" We later noted that while he is old, you can't tell from how he looks -- he's always looked ancient. Johnson was one of those rare guys who was born looking 45 years old.

The Credibility of Journalists Supporting Manny's All Star Bid
Apparently, Manny Ramirez should be in the All Star Game. That's what journalists want us to know. Based on his numbers and the fan support he's received he should be there. I disagree. I still don't really care that he got caught cheating -- he was punished, punishment's over, I'd still vote for him to get him into the Hall of Fame -- but no matter how you look at it he missed 50 of the first 81 games of the season. Do you really think that Manny, who's essentially played a month of baseball, is more deserving to be an All Star than a guy who's been playing every single day for his team? I don't. Manny should stay home.

NFL Power Rankings by Weakest Link

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 12:35:00 -0500

If you really are only as good as your weakest link, then who is the best team in the NFL?

An exercise in trying to define what a weakest link is yields little progress. I guess you could say that a team's Weakest Link is the position at which the player in question does the most damage with the least help to the team. Of course, this theoretically could be a coach, owner, or G.M., but I'll just stick to players in this exercise.

Inevitably, some teams on this list are going to be listed higher or lower than they should, simply because the standard is so inconsistent. I'm going to try to stick to unit weakness, but if the situation calls for it, individual players could get called out. With regards to youth, I'll try to give a team the benefit of the doubt: after all, any team can lose just fine with young talent, and justify it as rebuilding.

Anyway, here's what NFL Outsider came up with, as to rank the teams 32-to-1 by determining each team's weakest link.

32. Jacksonville Jaguars: Wide Receiver
The worst unit in the NFL has to be the receivers of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Has to be. 33-year old Torry Holt is an unquestioned No. 1 receiver on this team, no one else on the roster really has any experience, and Holt (who is one of the more prolific WRs in the game) has watched his game decline so much since 2005 that calling him an ideal No. 2 receiver would be a pretty charitable statement. This unit is the weakest of all links in the NFL in part because it's been a problem for so long, in part because the Jags did nothing to try to retain their young upcoming talent, and in part because I couldn't tell you who has the lead for the No. 2 WR position. Unless that person has a better year than Holt, I'm confident that this unit will rank among the weakest in the NFL at the end of the year.

31. Kansas City Chiefs: Pass Rush
If all Chiefs opponents in 2008 had combined to make one football team, they would have been the least sacked team in NFL history, and all five lineman would have been in the pro bowl. That's just how good the Chiefs pass rush made their opponents look last year. They really didn't do anything to upgrade the pass rush; LB Mike Vrabel comes over from New England, which certainly won't hurt, but also doesn't bring a lot of upside to the overall production. The offseason focus on defense was about a move to a 3-4 unit, and bolstering the defensive line first and foremost. That's fine, but it still leaves them a step away from a competent defensive unit who can get after the passer at a significantly better rate than last year's debacle.

30. Oakland Raiders: Wide Receivers
Perhaps it says something about the quality of the players in the game that the weakest parts of the weakest link list are receiver oriented. The Raiders addressed this as a need this offseason and drafted Darrius Heyward-Bey in the first round. Heyward-Bey might end up being a good player in time, and possibly even in Oakland, but his skill set does little to improve the Raiders right now. They still think they might have a No. 1 receiver in Javon Walker, but he's been written off by most pundits already. The rest of the roster includes names like Chaz Shillens, and Johnnie Lee Higgins, which, um, is better than Jacksonville?

29. St. Louis Rams: Wide Receiver
Second year man Donnie Avery has the true makings of a number one receiver, and will probably get there before too long but he isn't there right now, and the Rams simply do not have anyone else on the roster who can be trusted from Week 1 through Week 17 in that role. This is going to take a wait and see approach throughout the entire season.

28. Denver Broncos: Defensive Back Seven
They have Champ Bailey, plus some youth in CB Alphonzo Smith, so they probably won't be as bad as last year, but this is still an incredibly barren pass defense in Denver. S Darcel McBath will almost be forced to make an impact as a rookie, which is something they can't necessarily count on. Robert Ayers was drafted to be the primary pass rusher on this team, and in a 3-4 scheme, wouldn't count as a "back seven" player anyway. The back seven is two potentially strong corners, each on the opposite ends of that potential, and then, really nothing at all. Easy pickings for an NFL offense.

27. Detroit Lions: Defensive Line
It wouldn't be hard to argue that, just maybe, the Detroit Lions produced the worst defense in NFL history last year. Immediately, they went at fixing the linebackers and the cornerbacks, ending up with Julian Peterson, Larry Foote, and Anthony Henry in the process. They only used one pick, a fourth rounder, on the defensive line at all, and their switch to the 3-4 scheme means that any productive players from last years team are not returning on the DL. This unit will become the bane of Jim Schwartz' first season.

26. Seattle Seahawks: Running Back
The Seahawks happen to be a pretty complete team, but their combination of Julius Jones and T.J. Duckett at running back this season is pretty laughable for an otherwise solid roster. It creates a giant, gaping hole that threatens their ability to make the playoffs this year in an increasingly talented NFC West.

25. Buffalo Bills: Offensive Tackle
The Bills spent much of their resources in the draft this season to make sure that the three interior guys in the OL were not going to be some camp scrubs. Mission accomplished, I guess. The trade of Jason Peters leaves this team without any sort of left tackle prospect, and the team's current plans involve sliding RT Langston Walker over to the left side. Walker was a little bit over his head at RT, so this should be plenty of fun to watch, and this unit will often draw the ire of the upstate NY die-hards.

24. Cincinnati Bengals: Interior Offensive Line
The Bengals will head into camp starting Andrew Whitworth and Andre Brown at the tackles, which should be adequate. At least compared to the names on the interior. It's a part of the unit that wasn't very good last year, in either run blocking or pass blocking, and didn't really get any stronger this off-season. The pass protection will be better in Cinci this year, but the interior running game figures to be much of the same.

23. Chicago Bears: Wide Receiver
Thanks to Devin Hester's emergence as a deep threat that teams at least need to get a man on, the Bears aren't quite as weak here as they once thought. Again, we're giving the benefit of the doubt to youth here: the Bears have used third round picks in consecutive years on receivers, who might complement Hester one day should Hester ever give the Bears something to complement.

22. Green Bay Packers: Offensive Line
There's plenty of warm bodies across the board here on a unit that is deeper than it is strong, but the only real name that still remains is LT Chad Clifton, a declining player in the last year of his contract, and even he is hardly guaranteed a starting spot. The Packers could turn this into a strength with the development of a young guy or two, but that's what they thought at this time last year as well. Time is running out for the current group.

21. Houston Texans: Secondary
The return of Dunta Robinson to the lineup takes this group out of bottom five territory, but this unit has been possibly the biggest failing of the Texans front office. It has been properly identified as an area of concern by the team, but the solutions have involved names like Jacques Reeves, CC Brown, Will Demps, and Nick Ferguson. At this point, it's time to give the middle round prospects the team has a shot.

20. Cleveland Browns: Inside Linebacker
It's hard to be worse than the ILB duo of Andra Davis and D'Qwell Jackson was last year, as no unit I studied last year looked more lost on film. Davis has moved on to...Denver, so that makes things better in the immediate, although the Browns don't have a firmly entrenched replacement lined up. 2007 4th rounder Beau Bell is the frontrunner. Jackson is still young, only heading into his 4th season, so he has a fighting chance to become a quality player yet.

19. Atlanta Falcons: Secondary
The team was obviously somewhat unprepared to lose it's only quality DB, CB Dominique Foxworth, to free agency. They drafted William Moore, a SS from Missouri who could pay off long term dividends. I have faith in the Atlanta front office to develop some young talent and get it onto the field this year, but they simply aren't working with very much. They'll stay out of the weak link cellar, but this unit might keep the Falcons out of the playoffs.

18. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Wide Receiver
The Bucs' rebuilding project is more evident at the wide receiver position than anywhere else. Antonio Bryant is a pretty legit number one, but he's a one year wonder in that role. Receivers 2-4 are much more troubling. They include names like Michael Clayton and Maurice Stovall. Unlike some of the teams really high on that list, the talent is there, but the production is still very much a mystery which makes this unit an easily identifiable weak link.

17. Minnesota Vikings: Pass Protection
A unit that was not so hot last year when Matt Birk was out of the lineup lost Birk entirely when he surprised everyone and bolted for Baltimore. The left side of the line is not much of an issue, but the right side was terrible last year, and the drafting of Oklahoma T Phil Loadholt does little to improve the pass protection on the right side, as he is of the mauler breed. When you factor in that Adrian Peterson has not yet developed the blocking end of his game, getting a quarterback who can make the proper line calls (like a Brett Favre) seems like the only remaining way to get anything out of this pass pro unit in 2009. Only Favre's potential presence kept the Vikings pass blocking from being higher up on the list of weak links.

16. New York Giants: Wide Receiver
On most teams, the hodgepodge of youthful talent that the Giants have at the receiver position would be considered an excellent base for a developing team, but the Giants aren't at the developmental stage in the life cycle of their team. They are in the "get Eli help now" stage, and have very few pieces who can be relied on. Rookie WR Hakeem Nicks needs to make an immediate impact, or the intermediate routes run by Domenik Hixon and Steve Smith will get stale quickly.

15. Washington Redskins: Offensive Line
This unit probably takes more flak then it deserves, but the fact remains that 4 out of the 5 positions are either getting very much over-the-hill (LT, RG), or are largely unproven in this scheme (C, RT). The Redskins don't have bad offensive line numbers from a year ago, at least according to ALY, but the performance at the end of the season was so egregious that a change had to be made, and the long-tenured Jon Jansen got the axe, despite not necessarily being the biggest issue.

14. New York Jets: Wide Receiver
Jericho Cotchery is one of the 20 best receivers in football, another way of saying he's a legit No. 1, but the No. 2 job now falls to either Chansi Stuckey or David Clowney and being a slot receiver in a Brett Favre run offense is a much different role from being a second receiver in an offense run by a rookie. Without an unexpected breakout from a young receiver, this becomes a really rough rookie season for Sanchez.

13. Pittsburgh Steelers: Interior Offensive Line
They did get a strong playoff performance from Darnell Stapleton and Chris Kemoeatu en route to a sixth title, but even the addition of Kraig Urbik to this team doesn't make it suddenly resistant to injury. Kendall Simmons became a cap casualty after starting only four games last season before getting hurt, and leaving the Steelers OL in a world of hurt for most of the regular season. If either of the unremarkable incumbents gets hurt, the Steelers will be riding a 3rd round rookie towards the playoffs, and that's the kind of thing that opposing defensive coordinators will snack on all day, every Sunday.

12. Miami Dolphins: Secondary
The Vontae Davis pick, and Gibril Wilson signing have shored up a gaping weakness in the coverage units of the Dolphins, but it's still easily identifiable as the team's biggest weakness. Eric Green was signed by Miami to play corner, but he was most recently seen getting toasted in Arizona professionally. Bill Parcells and Jeff Ireland must have seen something that I have not in him, because he figures to be one of the most picked on targets in 2009.

11. San Francisco 49ers: Secondary
I can't discount the presence of Nate Clements on this unit, as overrated as he was in his free agency year, and this 49ers team is remarkably hole free from top to bottom, but I still think they are going to hemorrhage yards in the passing game to the point where they won't be all that competitive for a playoff spot.

10. Dallas Cowboys: Offensive Tackles
Flozell Adams and Marc Columbo are two starting quality tackles in the NFL, but neither should be starting on the great offense the Cowboys believe they have, and the first backup is a mid round rookie draft pick from the power house that is the Ball St. Cardinals, Robert Brewster. Not among the weakest links in the league, but still pretty bad for a playoff contender. OT is simply a position that the Cowboys have gone too long without addressing.

9. Tennessee Titans: Quarterback
Kerry Collins played very well last year, under ideal conditions for a pocket passing veteran: low expectations, great protection, emerging selfless targets with limited "get me the ball" type egos. But that's a once in a lifetime offensive environment. The offensive line will be strong for many, many years into the future, but not nearly what it was last year, and Collins has always been a mistake prone player. The big issue is that if the Titans should need to replace Collins to save their season in the middle of the year, their choices will include Patrick Ramsey and Vince Young. Both have won games in this league before, but would just be placeholders until the team can get an actual fix next offseason.

8. Arizona Cardinals: Run Blocking
The Cards finally have the horses to run the football early and often if they wish to, but the blocking will remain very much the same as last seasons' dead last rushing effort. It's bound to get better with a better runner setting up those blocks, but there's still a ton of room to improve here, and it is the biggest weakness on a Cardinals team that is pretty well rounded.

7. Carolina Panthers: Quarterback
Jake Delhomme enters this season as the unquestioned starter, and he's got depth behind him in Josh McCown and Matt Moore, but this unit will be very much tested when team's figure out how to take cutback lanes away from Jonathon Stewart and DeAngelo Williams. Delhomme to Steve Smith remains an elite passing tandem, but little of that has to do with Delhomme. The question becomes, on a team that's ready to compete right now, can they hold Delhomme upright in a way that allows him to lead this offense back to the top of the league, or is he the weak link that will keep the Panthers home in January?

6. Indianapolis Colts: Offensive Tackles
Tony Ugoh is a developing tackle who might be a monster one day, but when he's been in the lineup his first two years, Peyton Manning has had his share of pass pressure come from right over LT. On the other side, Ryan Diem has long been a marginal player who tends to mishandle the better rushers in the league. Peyton usually has protections called to handle all sorts of blitz pressure, but even a three time MVP has little hope when facing a team with two dynamic pass rushing ends. Luckily, the Colts D is the only defense in the NFL with this specialized duo, so that pushes the Colts OTs further down this list.

5. Philadelphia Eagles: Secondary
The loss of Brian Dawkins won't be felt on a team-wide level quite like it will on this unit wide level. The Asante Samuel investment gets put into question because he's struggled in man to man coverage without safety help before, and removing Dawkins' range from the defensive equation takes Samuel out of that shutdown corner territory. The opposite corner, Sheldon Brown, is fighting for his job, and needs to hold of Joselio Hanson and Ellis Hobbs. Neither is much of a coverage player.

4. New Orleans Saints: Pass Rush
Finding a weakness on the Saints was not at all easy, but their pass rush last season was basically non-existent, and that's not the kind of thing that a Gregg Williams hire will solve. He's a blitzer, but for all the pass protections he's broken down over his career, the team's sack numbers don't seem to improve. No, this production will have to come from individuals such as Charles Grant and Will Smith, and both guys are coming off of a down year in 2008, not to mention that both players are in the StarCaps scandal.

3. San Diego Chargers: Defensive Line
Jamal Williams is still one of the better noses in the league, but neither defensive end was what the Chargers had hoped for last year. They let Igor Olshansky walk to Dallas, but the other incumbent, Luis Castillo, played poorly in 2008, and career backup Jacques Cesaire is in line for a starting job opposite him. With a rebound year from Castillo and continued production from Williams, this might not be a weakness, but it sure looks like one right now.

2. Baltimore Ravens: Running Back
Perhaps the most complete team in the league, the Baltimore Ravens will run Willis McGahee and Ray Rice out as their tailback duos, along with LeRon McClain in power situations. McClain was a probowler last year, but as a fullback. McGahee has had some good games as a Raven: against NE in 2007, and he broke a long run against Dallas last year, but Ray Rice is unproven, and the Ravens are a team who need to be able to run the ball to succeed.

1. New England Patriots: Pass Rush
The only question the Pats have to answer in 2009 is whether or not they can still get after the passer. Mike Vrabel is gone, and Adalius Thomas has not been a prolific pass rusher since coming over from Baltimore, merely a cog in a bigger machine. Richard Seymour's sack production bounced back last year to 8, but he's not going to produce at that level again. The Patriots need that prolific pass rushing linebacker, and they simply don't have that piece. Therefore, in a team that has few weaknesses, it's the pass rush that will be of the greatest concern to the Pats in 2009.

Fantasy Football: Remembering Steve McNair

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 09:50:00 -0500

With the news coming over the holiday weekend of the death of former NFL quarterback Steve McNair due to fatal gunshot wounds at the age of 36, I am taking a brief foray today into remembering McNair's career and highlighting his best seasons from a fantasy football perspective (as trivial as I realize it is, considering the circumstances).

McNair was the third overall pick in the 1995 NFL Draft by the then-Houston Oilers, and would play for the franchise for 11 of his 13 NFL seasons before joining the Baltimore Ravens in 2006 for his final two campaigns. He retired prior to the 2008 season with 31,304 passing yards and 174 touchdowns along with 3,590 rushing yards and 37 touchdowns.

McNair is one of just three quarterbacks, along with Fran Tarkenton and Steve Young, to pass for over 30,000 yards and rush for over 3,500 yards in their careers. He proved to the NFL at-large that an African-American quarterback from a small school (McNair went to Alcorn St. and still holds many Division 1-AA records) could adapt and be successful at the NFL level.

McNair's best fantasy seasons came from 2001-2003, as he topped 3,200 passing yards and threw at least 20 touchdowns each season and rushed for five, three and four touchdowns in each season respectively, along with topping 400 rushing yards in 2001 and 2002. McNair was named co-NFL MVP (along with Peyton Manning) in 2003, as he set a career-high with 24 passing touchdowns.

McNair was a dual-threat QB whose mobility and willingness to run diminished in the latter years of his career as injuries began to pile up. His career high for rushing yards was 674 in 1997, his first full season as a starter. McNair's career high for rushing touchdowns was eight, which he accompished in 1997 and 1999. Fantasy owners who had long-time Oilers' and Titans' running back Eddie George saw McNair vulture quite a few touchdowns during those years.

Owning McNair in a fantasy league could often be a frustrating experience, because there were plenty of weeks where he didn't practice at all due to injury only to answer the bell when it counted on Sundays. I'm sure he got benched by many of his owners during those weeks, only to play and probably play well more often than not.

McNair will be remembered as a "tough guy" who played through many bumps and bruises (or worse) throughout his career, and he will be remembered by those he played with as a great leader.

NFL Outsider Season Preview 2009: Pittsburgh Steelers

Mon, 06 Jul 2009 08:00:00 -0500

NFL Outsider is hosting a season preview of all 32 teams. The NFL regular season begins on September 10; in the meantime follow the best NFL bloggers as they analyze their teams in this 2009 season preview.

Donald from Steelerstoday.com gives insight into what to expect from this year's Pittsburgh Steelers.

2008 regular season record: 12-4
2009 predicted record: 13-3
Predicted finish in AFC North: 1st

The Pittsburgh Steelers ended 2008 by taking home their sixth Lombardi Trophy. However, repeating in 2009 is not going to be an easy task. Steeler Nation is not going to like hearing me say this, but I don't think the Steelers were the best team in the NFL last season. However, the Steelers got hot at the right time, and had a few breaks go their way. Next thing you know, they're throwing a parade in Pittsburgh.

Key Weaknesses:
If the Steelers hope to repeat, they are going to have to address their biggest weakness; the offensive line. The Steelers' offensive line allowed Ben Roethlisberger to be sacked over 45 times during each of the past 3 regular seasons. For comparison, Peyton Manning has averaged 17 sacks per season during the same period, and Drew Brees has averaged 16 sacks. Moreover, both quarterbacks threw significantly more passes than Roethlisberger, who plays in a run-oriented offense. See the problem? The Steelers may be the only team in history to win the Super Bowl with an offensive line that was among the league leaders in sacks allowed. Keeping Roethlisberger off his back has got to be priorities #1, 2, and 3 for the Steelers this year.

The offensive line is also going to have to assert themselves in the running game. The 2008 Steelers rushing attack was dreadful. They struggled to gain short yardage in key situations time and time again. Offensive Coordinator Bruce Arians often found himself calling passing plays on 3rd and short, something that almost never happened when "The Bus" was still parked in the Steelers' garage. The ground attack that has historically been a Steelers' strength has suddenly become a weakness.

Key Strengths:
Despite the Steelers' offensive shortcomings, they still boast the best defense in the NFL. With the addition of former 1st round draft pick Lawrence Timmons into the starting line-up, the Steelers defense should be even stronger than last year. If opponents can't run against the Steelers, and can't pass against them, it makes beating them a pretty tough task.

On offense, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger continues to establish himself as one of the elite quarterbacks in the NFL. The emergence of WR Santonio Holmes is sure to help Roethlisberger's further development.

Key losses: CB Bryant McFadden, WR Nate Washington, ILB Larry Foote, QB Byron Leftwich, S Anthony Smith.

Despite the losses, the Steelers should actually emerge as a better team than they were in 2008. Byron Leftwich and Anthony Smith were both backups. Bryant McFadden and Larry Foote were both splitting playing time with players of equal or greater talent. Nate Washington was the Steelers' #3 receiver, so he won't be as difficult to replace as Hines Ward or Santonio Holmes would have been.

Free Agent additions: CB Keiwan Ratliff, WR Shaun McDonald, P Dirk Johnson, RB Stefan Logan.

As usual, the Steelers didn't really participate in the free agent market. Instead, they let other teams battle for the overpriced free agents, and then pick and choose from the leftovers to find potential contributors at a bargain price.

Shaun McDonald could actually emerge as the Steelers' replacement for Nate Washington, although he will face tough competition in training camp from 2nd year player Limas Sweed and rookie draft pick Mike Wallace.

Draft Picks: DE Ziggy Hood, OG Kraig Urbik, WR Mike Wallace, CB Keenan Lewis, CB Joe Burnett, RB Frank Summers, DE Ra'Shon Harris, C A.Q. Shipley, TE David Johnson

The Steelers draft as well as any team in the NFL. They have a system, and it works for them. They build through the draft. That's the Steeler way. And they usually have the luxury of not having to depend on any of their draft picks to contribute immediately. The same can be said this year.

The Steelers had a stellar draft. Yet, being the reigning Super Bowl champs, few of their rookies will be able to win starting positions. In fact, guard Kraig Urbik is the only one that I would imagine will break into the starting lineup this year. The rest will have the luxury of learning the playbook so they can contribute in 2010.

That's exactly what happened to the 2008 draft class. The Steelers got almost no contribution from any of them last year. But this year, 2nd year players Rashard Mendenhall, Limas Sweed, Bruce Davis, Tony Hills, and Ryan Mundy should be ready to make a significant contribution, though none may start. It's almost like having a second batch of incoming rookies.

So the Steelers go into 2009 having lost very little talent, and having added lots of talented young players. I think it is fair to say that the Steelers' roster is actually going to be stronger this year than it was last year when they won the Super Bowl. Combine that with a very easy schedule, and it is difficult to imagine the Steelers not winning their division and making the playoffs.

MLB Outsider -- All Stars, the NL Edition

Sat, 04 Jul 2009 17:50:00 -0500

With the All Star Game looming around the corner, we're at a time of the year in which there is traditionally a lot of in-fighting and complaining. After all, rarely does the best player actually make the team or get to start. Usually it's a popularity contest, just like high school all over again.

So, let's be fair. If we were just going on the numbers, who would be the All Stars of 2009?

In the NL, our starting eight would be as follows:

(Note: This team has been assembled without consideration of the "one player per team" rule)

C Brian McCann, Braves. The 25-year-old slugging catcher is presently batting .311 with an OPS of .900. There are other catchers out there who are putting up good numbers, but none have performed so well-roundedly as McCann -- and those that have come closest haven't really played often enough to justify a trip to the All Star Game.

1B Albert Pujols, Cardinals. The cleanest player in baseball is presently out-hitting some third world countries. Pujols already has 4 grand slams, 31 homers, 82 RBI, 10 steals, and is batting .336 with an OPS of 1.208.

2B Chase Utley, Phillies. Utley is not the best defensive second baseman in the NL -- that title may go to Brandon Phillips this year -- but his offensive prowess more than makes up for it. Utley is presently hitting .303 with 17 homers, 54 RBI, and an OPS of .980.

SS Haney Ramirez, Marlins. Unfortunately, the best fielding shortstop couldn't hit his way out of a wet paper bag (hi there, J.J. Hardy). Ramirez, meanwhile, is just above defensively competent while he's also setting the world on fire with his bat. Presently he's hitting .344 with 13 homers, 58 RBI, 12 steals, and an OPS of .972.

3B Ryan Zimmerman, Nationals. He's bound to represent Washington, but not as a starter. The thing is, Zimmerman has been a defensive marvel this year according to Fangraphs, making him one of the few third baseman to really shine on the field so far in 2009. Combine that with his .295 AVG, 13 homers, 46 RBI, and .851 OPS and he's just a bit better than players like David Wright, Mark Reynolds, Pablo Sandoval, and Chipper Jones this season.

LF Raul Ibanez, Phillies. It's about a push between him and Ryan Braun. Both players have been hitting the ball very well, with Ibanez coming out on top thanks to his 6 additional homeruns (22 to 16), despite Braun's superior batting average (.327 to .312), and ignoring that neither are exactly generals in the field. Still, between the two Ibanez deserves it just a little bit more, although I don't think he -- or Phillies cans -- could feel robbed if Braun starts.

CF Matt Kemp, Dodgers. With Beltran injured, this should be a no-brainer. On top of Kemp's .303 AVG, 10 homers, 43 RBI, and 19 steals, he's also hands-down the best defensive center fielder in the NL this year. (Well, maybe not hands down, Colby Rasmus has also been very good, but Colby is a mediocre hitter.)

RF Justin Upton, Diamondbacks. He doesn't lead right fielders in any major offensive category, but Upton is a well-rounded hitter and a top defender. Chances are, the starting gig may go to Brad Hawpe or somebody who regularly plays left or center field, but based on the numbers Upton deserves the nod.

SP Dan Haren, Diamondbacks. There are a number of very talented pitchers in the NL this year, but Haren deserves the nod. Of the top 20 pitchers (based on ERA), Haren has allowed the fewest hits per nine innings pitched, he's allowed the fewest runs (earned or otherwise), he's walked the second fewest per nine innings pitched, and - obviously - he has the best ERA.

Other guys who deserve nods in backup roles:

C - Yadier Molina, Cardinals; Bengie Molina, Giants
1B - Adrian Gonzalez, Padres
2B - Freddy Sanchez, Pirates; Brandon Phillips, Reds
SS - Ryan Theriot, Cubs
3B - David Wright, Mets; Pablo Sandoval, Giants
LF - Ryan Braun, Brewers
CF - Scott Hairston, Padres
RF - Hunter Pence, Astros; Jason Werth, Phillies

SP - Tim Lincecum, Giants; Matt Cain, Giants; Johnny Cueto, Reds; Josh Johnson, Marlins; Yovani Gallardo, Brewers
RP - Heath Bell, Padres; Francisco Rodriguez, Mets; Francisco Cordero, Reds; Ryan Franklin, Cardinals

And just for kicks, here are the best-represented teams:

Giants (4), Padres (3), Cardinals (3), Phillies (3), Reds (3), Marlins (2), Diamondbacks (2), Mets (2), Brewers (2), Cubs (1), Dodgers (1), Nationals (1), Braves (1), Pirates (1), Astros (1)

That's 15 teams represented out of 16, leaving only the Rockies without representation. (It would be fairly easy to drop Jason Werth and pick up Brad Hawpe, though.)

The funny thing is that, while the Dodgers have run away with the NL West, they are dramatically outnumbered by the Giants and Padres in terms of representatives. Dodgers fans, consider that a shining example of how your team is getting there through a group effort, rather than through the actions of a single star (although your single star did recently return).

Early next week we'll take a look at the deserving AL All Stars.

NFL Top 10: Most Valuable Indianapolis Colts

Sat, 04 Jul 2009 14:00:00 -0500

Happy Independence Day, readers! Nothing says July 4th quite like fireworks, and analysis pieces on the best team in the nation's heartland.

The Indianapolis Colts continue to produce a nearly unhealthy streak of double digit win seasons, and the two men most responsible for this success are undeniable. One graces the top of our list, the other, will not be on the list. For Bill Polian is not a player, he merely has perfected his craft over the last ten years to become the league's best personnel guy.

But, as not to waste your time today, or whenever you may be reading this column, lets get right into the ten most valuable Colts.

10. DE Robert Mathis
Mathis is a rush end playing on the left side of the Colts DL in deference to Freeney, but it's because of the Colts' defensive scheme that he can be so productive. A lot of teams are averse to creating such an obvious weakness against the rush as the Colts are, but the team knows that having athletes on defense is unlikely to backfire in the NFL simply because it's tough if not impossible to commit to the run for a full game. As such, Mathis ends up with good run defense numbers, annually. Those are mostly product of system, but the guy's pro bowl pass rush ability is unquestioned.

9. LB Gary Brackett
Brackett is one of the few vocal leaders on the defense, and he's a smallish middle linebacker now in the peak of his career, still with some upside. He's underrated in the same way that London Fletcher and Keith Bulluck are, he has little weakness in his game, but isn't the explosive, headline grabbing linebacker that would garner much national attention. Add to that the fact that Indy isn't a huge media market, and the national coverage given to the other side of the football, and it's understandable that you may not have heard about this pro bowl level performer.

8. RB Joseph Addai
The still No. 1 running back for the Colts finds himself somewhat dispensable after the selection of Donald Brown in the first round, but Addai is still the best back on the team, and should go a long way towards proving that this season. It's up to him whether he creates a great tandem with Brown, or gives way to him.

7. WR Anthony Gonzalez
The Colts might have been the only team that would have taken Gonzo Jr. in the first round, because he was viewed as little more than a complementary receiver around the league. Of course, where most of the league sees "just a complementary target", the Colts saw "a potentially great complementary target." Early returns on Anthony Gonzalez were good enough to get him on this list.

6. TE Dallas Clark
Dallas Clark is neither a tight end or a receiver, he's an offensive 'tweener. He's somewhat limited as an in-line blocker, but can run all the routes and even adds a vertical element to the offense. Clark is famous for emerging in the middle of seasons as Manning's go to guy, and then giving way to his receivers as the playoffs begin. He's the prototype for a safety blanket, in that he has no limitations as a receiver, and thusly, fits in whatever role the team needs at the current moment.

5. DE Dwight Freeney
Dwight Freeney is really just a one move player, which is essentially why he was available in the middle of the first round in the 2002 draft, and why he's never really mentioned in the conversation of best defensive ends in the game. And it's true that you can only be so good without developing a second move. But Freeney's spin move is unquestionably the best spin move in the history of the NFL. It is to the 21st century what the Deacon Jones head slap was to the 1960's. The best offensive tackles in the game can't seem to keep him from getting inside. Freeney is undersized, and without the spin move, he wouldn't have any sort of an interior game, but with it, he's one of the most dyamic defenders in the game.

On a small tanget, isn't Freeney the posterchild for a Bill Polian selection?

4. WR Reggie Wayne
There will never again be another Marvin Harrison, but Reggie Wayne might be the greatest consolation prize in NFL history. Harrison's effectiveness declined sharply following the 2006 SB season, and since then, Wayne has been the go to guy on the Colts. Wayne has always been one of the most valuable receivers in the NFL, and while a considerable amount of that is the Manning effect, Wayne is also good player, pure and simple.

3. C Jeff Saturday
For as good as Peyton Manning has been, he couldn't overcome the loss of Saturday for the first month of last season. The Colts offense was struggling, the team lost 4 of it's first 7 games which was basically unheard of. Then, Saturday returned. Needless to say, the team won the rest of it's regular season games, and Peyton Manning won the MVP. A lot of the credit for that goes to Jeff Saturday, who is now healthy, and after re-upping with the team this offseason, plans to make another run or two at a second title before leaving Manning to his own devices.

2. S Bob Sanders
The defensive enforcer would be a common NFL position, although when you have a safety who handles that role, it's certainly a bonus exclusive to a few teams. When you consider that Sanders dropped in the draft because of size and durability concerns, it's just a remarkable scouting job by the Colts to find him when they did. He hasn't been the most durable character in his five year tenure, but when he's in the lineup, he's a elite player.

1. QB Peyton Manning
So much has been written about Peyton Manning that anything I added here would be rehashing old points. He's the greatest player of his generation and arguably the greatest player of all-time. No one in history has been better more consistently and longer.

Manning won his third NFL MVP last season, but he did not win the award in his two best seasons, 2005 and 2006. Shaun Alexander and LaDainian Tomlinson each enjoyed career years respectively, but Manning was simply more valuable based on his position and level of historic greatness, and while Manning is tied for Brett Favre for most MVPs in NFL history, Peyton could easily be a 5-time MVP. That hasn't been done in any major sport, and no one would ever have come close in football.

Lest we think that Manning's actually done playing at an MVP level, he's bound to do remarkable things in this league yet.