MVN - Most Valuable Network

2008-09 NBA Award Predictions

You might have thought that you already read enough predictions for the upcoming NBA season.  I say one can never read enough of them.  It’s what us here at NBA Outsider are all about - prognosticating, and asking you, the reader, to give us your take on it.  We’ve already heard from Michael De Leon, who had some excellent picks indeed.  Here’s who I think will rise to the top of the NBA this year.

Most Valuable Player - Chris Paul

I realize that some people might be extremely uncomfortable with this statement, but here goes: Chris Paul has a chance to not just be the best point guard in this league (we all know this already), but also possibly its best player, period.  With apologies to LeBron and Kobe, both of whom are in their primes and are unquestionably two of the most talented players on earth, Paul has barely scratched the surface of his potential.  Point guard has traditionally been the position that takes the most time for any young player to get comfortable with upon entering the NBA.  Paul is beginning his fourth season and is already putting up numbers that rival some of the best point guards that this league has ever seen.  Is it conceivable that he could improve on his averages of 21 points, 11.6 assists and 2.7 steals?  With the talented young team and excellent coach surrounding him, you bet it is.

Defensive Player of the Year - Tayshaun Prince

I had a lot of trouble trying to choose a guy for this award because there are so many players who seem to be deserving enough.  I decided to go with Prince over the usual suspects like Garnett, Bowen, and Camby for a few reasons.  First, Prince is out there every single night.  He hasn’t missed a game since his rookie year, which was six years ago.  And every night that he’s out there, you can bet he’s guarding the opposite team’s best player.  It’s too bad that he rarely gets the recognition in Motown that he deserves, mostly because he’s overshadowed by some other guys on his team.  Despite what anyone else says, Prince is the Pistons’ rock and he is what has kept this team more than competitive for all these years.  This year I think he finally gets his due.

Coach of the Year - Maurice Cheeks

I had originally planned on picking Hornets coach Byron Scott for this award, but someone reminded me that he won it last year, so that was the end of that.  I instead went with Cheeks, who has always been a great coach but I don’t think has ever had the kind of talent on his team that he’s got now.  Philly fans already are familiar with what Andre Iguodala can do as the team’s offensive centerpiece.  Now that Elton Brand has arrived, the other AI is going to be even better.  This team has just the right mix of still-talented veterans (Andre Miller, Reggie Evans, Theo Ratliff) and promising youngsters (Willie Green, Thaddeus Young) for Cheeks to mix and match.  This is a potential 50-win team, and if they do that well you can bet that Cheeks will be a big reason why.

Rookie of the Year - Michael Beasley

I might regret not taking Greg Oden for this once, considering his excellent early showings in preseason games so far this month.  Oden has to be the frontrunner at this point, but I still have faith in Beasley despite his off the court issues and supposed lack of maturity.  When he’s on the court, all that stuff doesn’t matter.  With that sweet lefty stroke, ridiculous athleticism and an already near-perfect build, Beasley is about as ready as any NBA rookie can be to not only contribute, but perhaps dominate at times.  He won’t put up Kevin Durant-type numbers in his first season, but he’ll still be plenty good.  A solid first year from him combined with a healthy and productive season for Marion and Wade could be enough to get Miami into the playoffs.

Sixth Man of the Year - Jason Terry

This was another tough one for me to predict.  There are many talented bench players out there, but Terry has to be one of the best.  He would start on most teams, but the Mavericks already have Jason Kidd running the point and they are looking for more size at shooting guard.  Therefore, it’s looking like Terry will move back to the bench.  As a Mavericks fan, I couldn’t be happier.  He’s getting older, but still has some quickness and can still shoot the ball with the best of them.  Expect him to have a solid 3-pt shooting percentage and get his scoring numbers back to around 16 per game being the Mavs’ first guy off the bench.

Most Improved Player - Danny Granger

I could be going out on a limb here, considering that Granger put up excellent numbers in 2007-08.  But this year he has a new point guard in T.J. Ford running the show.  The offense should be much more uptempo, and now that he’s the team’s top option, he’ll get more shots than ever before.  If he can improve on his meager assists average from last year and get his scoring over 20 points per game, I think he’ll have a shot at winning this award and maybe even becoming an All-Star.

Stay with NBA Outsider throughout the preseason…

NFL Outsider Picks: Brett Favre’s Jets face trap game against Bengals

Getting you set for another big weekend of NFL games—from Sunday’s slate of matchups to Monday’s showcase event—it’s NFL Outsider Picks with Mack Rosenberg and Jimmy DiFalco. The pair runs down the Week 6 schedule and calls each of the 14 winners.

Mack selects Cincinnati on the road against the New York Jets as his upset special. Jimmy thinks the Bengals are on the right track, too, as the offense is starting to click, but his pick for an upset this week is Arizona at home versus the Dallas Cowboys.

Eliminator locks of the week: Mack goes with Minnesota at home against the Detroit Lions as his can’t-miss pick. “Adrian Peterson will step all over the league’s worst defense.” Jimmy’s lock for Week 6 is Washington at home in their matchup with the dreadful St. Louis Rams.

Week 6 Schedule
Chicago at Atlanta, 1:00 p.m., FOX
Baltimore at Indianapolis, 1:00 p.m., CBS
Detroit at Minnesota, 1:00 p.m., FOX
Oakland at New Orleans, 1:00 p.m., CBS
Cincinnati at NY Jets, 1:00 p.m., CBS
Carolina at Tampa Bay, 1:00 p.m., FOX
St. Louis at Washington, 1:00 p.m., FOX
Miami at Houston, 1:00 p.m., CBS
Jacksonville at Denver, 4:05 p.m., CBS
Dallas at Arizona, 4:15 p.m., FOX
Philadelphia at San Francisco, 4:15 p.m., FOX
Green Bay at Seattle, 4:15 p.m., FOX
New England at San Diego, 8:15 p.m., NBC

—
Tune into NFL Outsider Monday at 7:25 p.m. ET for a one-hour radio pregame special leading up to a Monday Night Football showdown between the New York Giants and Cleveland Browns (8:30 p.m., ESPN). After the show, stick around for NFL Outsider’s live blog of the game.

What two games in Philly have taught us

I must admit that I did not expect this series to be 2-0 in favor of Philadelphia when it prepared to head to the West Coast. That’s why I’m done predicting, but after these two games in the city of brotherly love, here’s what we all should have learned.

Cole Hamels is good. Very good:  Well, we already knew this, but it’s nice to see it on such a national stage. He reminds me of Tom Glavine during the Atlanta glory years mainly because his changeup is one of the dirtiest pitches in baseball. In Manny Ramirez’s second at-bat in the first game, Hamels pulled the string perfectly on the outside corner a couple of times. If he’s needed to pitch a second game (or even a third in a seventh game), there’s no doubt in my mind that he’ll out duel whoever is opposite him.

Thing is, Hamels is good, then what:  The rest of the Philadelphia rotation fails to impress me. Brett Myers can be good, at times, but this is the same pitcher that was sent to the minor leagues earlier this season. He entered the playoffs after being roughed up a bit in the final months and he nearly gave away yesterday’s game. After those two, Jamie Moyer and Joe Blanton don’t scare anyone. This series could very easily end up being 2-2 before we know it.

Myers has, however, turned into the best hitter in the league:  Of course we all remember the seemingly endless at-bat Myers had against C.C. Sabathia in the first round, but he’s now proven it wasn’t a one-time thing. He went 3-for-3 with 2 runs and 3 RBI yesterday…unreal. The question he is now imposing on Charlie Manuel is whether or not to use him as a pinch hitter at some point in the playoffs. Seriously, he’s batting .800 in two games against Sabathia and Chad Billingsley. You’ve got to give him his credit.

It’s amazing what a change of scenery can do:  After struggling in Houston ever since setting a ball on a tee for Albert Pujols, closer Brad Lidge just needed a change. Since joining Philadelphia, he’s saved everything — literally. And he continues to close the door in the playoffs, saving both of the games thus far in the NLCS. If the Philadelphia bullpen can shorten the game for the average starters, then Lidge will simply end it. Manuel will just ride his hot arm at this point.

I still can’t help but think the Dodgers offense is just a sleeping giant:  Rafael Furcal is batting .111 in the first two games — he’s not setting the table for anyone. I believe the 1-through-6 portion of the LA lineup is pretty dynamic. It has patience, speed and power potential. So far, though, it hasn’t gotten the job done. Joe Torre will fix that, and the home field atmosphere should help flip the players’ emotions

…and finally…

The National League isn’t that good:  I don’t know if it’s just me, but neither the Phillies nor Dodgers come off as a dominant, put-you-away team. Could either advance and win the World Series? Yeah. I just don’t think they will. Both rotations are a pitcher slim compared to the three-headed monsters of Daisuke/Beckett/Lester and Shields/Kazmir/Garza. Maybe it’s because the Dodgers are here after winning MLB’s worst division and the Phillies are in because of the annual Mets meltdown — I just don’t know. Regardless, I think the American League winner could have another field day this year.

Will the economic downturn affect the NFL?

One only needs to flip on the cable news channel of their choice and the top stories are all focused on how the US economy is headed to hell in a hand bucket. The stock market is tanking, banks are failing, and all economic indicators point to trouble ahead well into next year. The National Football League is a multi-billion dollar company that depends on discretionary spending by its patrons for their income. With the current economic belt tightening, does this mean trouble ahead for the NFL?

It would take an advanced economic degree from UC Berkeley in economics to fully assess the potential inujry from the current economic situation for the National Football League. The early assessment is that there could be far reaching damage if the economic downturn is to continue long term.

TV Deals

The lifeline of the NFL’s financial health is their massive television contracts with FOX, CBS, NBC, and ESPN. These are guaranteed deals that don’t start expiring until 2010, so that is already money in the bank for the NFL to weather this situation. For this money train to keep on rolling, the networks need to be able to sell their hyper-inflated advertising. One major advertiser has already opted against paying upwards of $3,000,000 for a 30 second slot in the Super Bowl.

If the costs drive advertisers away, then the networks will not be looking to renew their contracts or at least reup at a reduced rate. If this were to happen, the NFL would be in real trouble, as the TV contracts are the pool from which all 32 NFL franchises drink and the player contracts are paid. If this pool shrinks, the NFL teams will find themselves on the hook for contracts they can no longer afford.

If the TV revenue shrinks, the biggest losers will be the players. The collective bargaining agreement mandates that the salary cap and salary floor are both based on percentages of the television revenue. If that revenue source shrinks, so does the amount that the teams are both required and able to pay their players.

If the economy recovers by 2010, these contracts will be a moot point, however if there is still a soft outlook on the economy the NFL could be in a world of hurt.

Corporate Sponsorships:

Now that nearly every stadium in the league has a corporate name attached to it and nearly every free space of a stadium has corporate logos affixed, the teams are counting on that continued revenue stream. This is NOT shared revenue, so it goes straight to the profit margin of each team in the league. As the corporate dominos fall: AIG, Washington Mutual, etc those companies can no longer purchase the ad space or splash their name on the door. Even the companies who are not falling as of now, are likely going to be tightening their belts as the stock market continues its plunge.

One example of a stadium that has lost its corporate sponsorship is the McAfee Oakland Alameda County Coliseum. The deal between the Coliseum Authority and McAfee expired this year, and McAfee chose not to renew. No companies have stepped up to have their name affixed to the Coliseum so it has reverted to its traditional name of Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum and the Coliseum Authority, Oakland A’s and Oakland Raiders have all lost a chunk of their revenue stream.

Ticket Sales:

Ticket Sales are the most volatile part of economic equation for the NFL. Luxury boxes are frequently bought out by local corporations who use them for entertaining. If these local companies have to cut their budgets, their luxury suites are likely high on their list of things that can be cut. General season tickets are even more in jeopardy as the skyrocketing prices have them near the outer limits of affordability for the common fan. Now these fans are also hit with rising gas prices and the possibility of foreclosure so football can increasingly become too much of a luxury.

The big crunch will unlikely be the season in progress, as much of the league is already flush in sold season tickets, but if the downturn continues into next summer the league is likely to see a major drop in ticket sales. Again, this is unshared revenue that goes to the individual teams for basic operating expenses.

Other Economic Factors:

Here is where the real variables come into play, maybe not for the league as a whole, but for individual teams. For teams that are paying down the debt on their stadium they could really get hit with the credit crunch as it will limit their financing options. If a team is in the market for a new stadium, now is far from the right time.

The NFL needs to be aware of the risk that the owners’ individual portfolios face in the current crisis. Arther Blank, owner of the Atlanta Falcons, is a key example as he made his fortune as the founder/CEO of the Home Depot. Right now, Home Depot is taking a real beating as their home improvement market depends on the real estate and retail markets, both of which are in the dumps. He has likely diversified his portfolio and invested his golden parachute, but with the entire market headed into the tank he may find himself in a financial bind running the team. Other owners have their own exposure to the markets and fluctuation in the economy.

Even the iron fisted Al Davis, owner of the Oakland Raiders, sold off several shares of his team within the last year to provide further operating capital for the Raiders. In true Davis form, he sold of shares that have no voting rights, but he still loosened his death grip ever so slightly.

If the economy recovers by the middle of next year, the NFL is likely to continue unscathed for the most part. However, if this becomes a prolonged downturn, like any other company in America or the world for that matter, the NFL could have to do some belt tightening of their own. It is not likely that the NFL will see teams fold as they did during the great depression, but there could be some ownership changes on the horizon at firesale prices, much like many other major corporations.

Patrick A. Patterson covers the Oakland Raiders for Thoughts from the Dark Side and Examiner.com.

The Rays and Florida’s Fleeting Fan Loyalty

Because the Tampa Bay Rays’ fans have finally shown up in central Florida for a few playoff games is the rest of the ‘08 season’s pitiful home attendance supposed to be overlooked?  The Rays had a magical season after two consecutive seasons as baseball’s worst.  The won 97 games and the American League East and played in a division with two of the biggest draws in the Majors but only filled Tropicana Field to 52.8% capacity with an average attendance of 22,259 per game — 26th best in the Majors.

The excuses were plentiful:

• The weather in Florida makes baseball a second thought in Tampa.
• Heck, the team isn’t even in Tampa.  The stadium is in St. Petersburg, about a half hour outside of Tampa Bay.
• After so many losing years, you can’t expect the fans to show up right away.
• Tropicana Field is played in a dome.  Why would you want to watch a game in a dome?

The fans showed up for the Red Sox and Yankees games.  They showed up for Trace Adkins and even MC Hammer — two of the club’s postgame concert promotions — but the winning didn’t seem to pack them in.  The Rays’ attendance went up as the season progressed but will it carry over from this season to the next?

Their state mates, the Florida Marlins, have never filled up their ball park in south Florida and often with the same excuses provided the Tampa “faithful”.  In 2003, the Marlins landed their second championship in their short franchise history but how did it effect their attendance?

2001 - 15,765 per game (Ranked 29th)
2002 - 10,038 per game (Ranked 29th)
2003 - 16,290 per game (Ranked 28th) <- World Series Champion
2004 - 22,091 per game (Ranked 26th)
2005 - 22,792 per game (Ranked 28th)
2006 - 14,384 per game (Ranked 30th)
2007 - 16,919 per game (Ranked 30th)
2008 - 16,688 per game (Ranked 30th)

The World Series win immediately boosted fan’s support in south Florida but it didn’t stick.  And this was their second championship in Florida’s short franchise history.  Maybe it’s all that Spring Training ball that by the regular season Floridians are just ”baseballed” out.

There was a jump in attendance from ‘07 to ‘08 for Tampa Bay.  They went from 17,148 per game to 22,259 per game, an increase of 5,111 per game.  The increase was similar to Florida’s 6,252 per game jump from ‘02 to their championship season of ‘03.  Things are looking sunnier for the franchise’s fan support, indeed.  But their average road attendance is still 2,200 per game below the Major League average and that’s with the extra games played at Yankee Stadium and Fenway Park.

Then there’s the weather excuse.  Some say it rains too often.  It rains a lot in Seattle too and that team posted the worst record in the American League in ‘08 but outdrew the Rays by over 4,500 per game.  Others blame the sunny weather and their close proximity to beaches.  There’s no place in the world with a more beautiful combination of weather and beaches than San Diego and the Padres drew over 7,700 per game more than the Rays although the Padres broke the heart of their fans in ‘07 and won only 63 games.

Finally, there’s the argument that the team just didn’t win before this year and it took a while for fans to react.  The Rays were the worst team in baseball in ‘07 and ‘06 and only finished out of the AL East basement once before their amazing ‘08 run.  Consider that the Rays were in first or second place in the East from May 6 on and for a series with the Blue Jays on August 26-28, the Rays averaged 13,398 per game during the three-game set.  They also drew just 18,359 fans per win, only the Marlins were lower at 15,894.

Maybe it’s not fair to measure the Rays on just their wins from this season since it takes time to build a fan base.  If there’s carryover from the previous two years, it’s probably more accurate to measure fans per win factoring in wins from ‘06 and ‘07 weighted, of course.  Here’s how the teams rank out when using the formula*:

1. New York Yankees
2. New York Mets
3. Los Angeles Dodgers
4. St. Louis Cardinals
5. Chicago Cubs
6. Philadelphia Phillies
7. San Francisco Giants
8. Detroit Tigers
9. Boston Red Sox
10. Milwaukee Brewers
11. San Diego Padres
12. Washington Nationals
13. Atlanta Braves
14. Los Angeles Angels
15. Houston Astros
16. Colorado Rockies
17. Seattle Mariners
18. Arizona Diamondbacks
19. Chicago White Sox
20. Cincinnati Reds
21. Toronto Blue Jays
22. Baltimore Orioles
23. Cleveland Indians
24. Pittsburgh Pirates
25. Minnesota Twins
26. Texas Rangers
27. Kansas City Royals
28. Tampa Bay Rays
29. Oakland Athletics
30. Florida Marlins

* Formula divides team’s home attendance (with bonus of road attendance above league average) by 100% of ‘08 wins plus 50% of ‘07 wins plus 25% of ‘06 wins

Again, even with the worst record in the league, the Rays only move up the scale by one team.  The Rays pass the Athletics but no one else and, of course, stay ahead of the Marlins.

Hopefully, their League Division Series has fans noticing.  And not just in Tampa Bay/St. Petersburg, either.  The Rays are a young, exciting team that are likely to prove that ‘08 was no fluke.  So far, the Marlins and Rays’ attendance is an indictment on Major League Baseball’s expansion into Florida.  The Rays now have a great story to build a loyal fan base behind.  Success in the LCS beginning tonight with the Red Sox would only add to that.  For those in Florida who do show up everyday, the rest of the baseball world should root for this to be the spark to put Florida in a baseball state of mind.

Pregame Hype: New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers, meh

Proving yet again that games are not played on paper, they are played on television, the 3-1 New England Patriots visit the 2-3 San Diego Chargers Sunday. Does the game even count as a showdown?

The Chargers were the sexy preseason AFC challenger to the Patriots, replacing the Indianapolis Colts in that role. Instead, both teams got themselves beat by the Miami Dolphins. Neither team is leading their division.

San Diego can legitimately claim injuries to very key players as explanation for their slow start. Linebacker Shawne Merriman is on Injured Reserve after the strangest medical odyssey to open the season. Jyles Tucker, his replacement, did not practice Thursday.

Then, there are the two big ones: tight end Antonio gates and running back LaDainian Tomlinson.

MVN’s Outsider Greg Trippiedi says Antonio Gates is performing “far below what the Chargers have come to expect from him.” Gates caught 75 receptions for 984 yards last season. He is trending 53 receptions for 694 yards this year. The San Diego Union-Tribune says a hip injury hinders Gates’ ability to get open.

LaDainian Tomlinson has been anything but LaDainian the Omen. He is the 13th ranked rusher going into the game. A toe injury is costing him explosiveness according to a story on SI.cnn.com. Unless he gets better in a hurry, the Patriots defense has a lot of flexibility in how they game plan the Bolts.

Philip Rivers has thrown 11 touchdown passes. More than ever, this is his offense.

The Patriots have but one significant injury. Replacing Tom Brady is more than a notion, however. NFL teams do a poor job preparing back-up quarterbacks to step in for the starters on short notice. That’s why experienced quarterbacks are widely sought for second string.

The Pats might have been happy to have a Chris Simms on the roster, but Tennessee signed him first. Matt Cassel, on the roster since 2005, was off to a slow start, but has improved with each game. He found Randy Moss for a touchdown last Sunday. He also threw two picks.

Look for New England to help Cassel by running to control the clock and build a lead to make the Chargers one dimensional on offense.

San Diego is the team with something to prove and with the far more desperate need to win. That might be enough to beat New England, but don’t count on it.

In the end, it will not make a difference. The center of gravity in the AFC has shifted to Nashville. With their injuries, it’s doubtful either team could beat the Titans.

Miami Dolphins (2-2) at Houston Texans (0-4)

If Bill Parcells never won Super Bowls with the New York Giants, he might still be voted into the Hall of Fame for his work at New England, New York Jets and Dallas Cowboys. Where ever he’s gone, he’s left a playoff caliber team in his wake. His Dolphins are favored to win their third game in Houston. No one saw that coming.

Texans fans are probably delighted to have Matt Shaub in the line-up and Sage Rosenfels on the bench.

Oakland Raiders (1-3) at New Orleans Saints (2-3)
St. Louis Rams (0-4) at Washington Redskins (4-1)

Interest in the Raiders and Rams focus on whether these teams can change their fortunes by changing their coach.  Most likely not. The problems with these teams need to be fixed in the offseason. The Raiders are 7 point underdogs to the Saints. The Rams are 13 point dogs to the Skins.

Carolina Panthers (4-1) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2)

Don’t look now, but the Panthers could steal playoff home field advantage if the NFC East teams degrade each other’s won-loss record. But first, the Panthers have to get past the Buccaneers, their nearest NFC South rival.

New York Giants (4-0) at Cleveland Browns (1-3)

The Browns can count their lucky stars that the Bengals were on the schedule and that Carson Palmer was out for their game. The Brady Quinn countdown continues, and may be closer after the Giants game.

Browns tight end Kellen Winslow is hospitalized for an undisclosed (by the team) illness that may keep him out of the Giants game. Mike Florio at profootballtalk.com writes that Winslow’s testicles “swelled to the size of grapefruit.”

There’s not a man alive that doesn’t feel Winslow’s pain. The Browns described Winslow’s condition as an illness rather than an injury.

We’ll wait for more exposure on this story.

Fantasy football: Week six position rankings

QUARTERBACK

1. Drew Brees vs. Oakland Raiders - If only he would throw more touchdowns. Still, you know that he’ll get his yardage in a home game and the Raiders pass defense is below average.

2. Tony Romo at Arizona Cardinals - Only one team (San Diego) has given up more touchdown passes than the Cardinals’ nine and Arizona is tied for 19th in the NFL in interceptions. This is a relatively safe matchup.

3. Brett Favre vs. Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals pass defense is fair, but they are tied for last in the NFL in sacks with only three. Given all the time he needs to find open receivers, Favre should dissect the Bengals D.

4. Jay Cutler vs. Jacksonville Jaguars - Having relinquished 237.2 passing yards per game and nine touchdowns so far this season, the Jags D looks overmatched. This home game should be ripe for helping Cutler get back in the saddle.

5. Kurt Warner vs. Dallas Cowboys - Until the ‘Boys show themselves capable of covering someone, any quarterback they face is a decent play. That said, Dallas is sixth in the league with 14 sacks and Warner could spend a lot of time on his back.

RUNNING BACK

1. Adrian Peterson vs. Detroit Lions - The Lions are doing their best to earn the title of worst team ever and their 30th-ranked rushing defense should contribute mightily to that label this week.

2. Clinton Portis vs. St. Louis Rams - Redskins coach Jim Zorn has brought a balanced offensive attack to D.C. and Portis is one of the primary beneficiaries of that system. The Rams have given up 166 rushing yards per game.

3. Brandon Jacobs at Cleveland Browns - Jacobs’ fantasy owners were sweating the first few games in which a committee approach to the RB position in New York looked preferred. Jacobs might have shattered that idea last week.

4. Marion Barber at Arizona Cardinals - The Cardinals defense ain’t sexy, but they are 12th in the league against the run. The good news for Barber owners is that the Cowboys coaching staff now seems to get that Barber is a key component of the team’s chances for victory.

5. Ronnie Brown at Houston Texans - The idea that Brown was just a one-week wonder has been destroyed. The Texans have the 26th-ranked rushing defense in the league and have relinquished more rushing touchdowns than any other team.

WIDE RECEIVER

1. Terrell Owens at Arizona Cardinals - Between the weakness of the Cardinals’ passing defense and T.O.’s self-absorbed need to score points, this matchup should be a no-brainer.

2. Brandon Marshall vs. Jacksonville Jaguars - Marshall’s three receptions last week were, by far, his lowest of the season. Considering that the Broncos really have no rushing game of which to speak, he should be back near the top of the receiving leaderboard this week.

3. Larry Fitzgerald vs. Dallas Cowboys - The continued absence of star wideout Anquan Boldin means that Fitzgerald is the sole elite target for QB Kurt Warner. The Cowboys secondary has been pathetic.

4. Randy Moss at San Diego Chargers - The Chargers defense is dead last in the NFL in both passing yards and passing touchdowns allowed. After last week’s strong performance, expect Moss to continue the process of redeeming his meager early season numbers.

5. Santana Moss vs. St. Louis Rams - Moss had ZERO catches last week after averaging almost seven per game in the first four weeks of the season, but he is the unquestioned number one receiver in the Redskins’ system.

TIGHT END

1. Jason Witten at Arizona Cardinals - Seriously, I’ve pretty much run out of things to say regarding why Witten should be the number one TE every week. If you have to ask….

2. Antonio Gates vs. New England Patriots - I have been touting Gates every week because of his consistency, but he only caught one ball last week for a measly 12 yards. However, until further evidence proves otherwise, I am going to call last week’s performance an anomaly.

3. Chris Cooley vs. St. Louis Rams - Cooley’s numbers last week made him look more like an elite wide receiver than a tight end. Everything I hear out of the Redskins indicates that they really consider him their number two receiver option.

4. Dallas Clark vs. Baltimore Ravens - Once again, the Ravens defense is fearsome, but they can’t stop opposing teams every time. The Ravens’ tight coverage should leave Clark open underneath at least enough to make him a good start this week.

5. Benjamin Watson at San Diego Chargers - The Chargers pass defense is miserable and the Patriots’ receiving corps should reap the benefits.

KICKER

1. Ryan Longwell vs. Detroit Lions - With a name like Longwell, this guy could be either a porn star or a football kicker. Did he make the right choice? Hmmm….

2. Nick Folk at Arizona Cardinals - In how many shootouts have the Cards been involved so far this season? At worst, Folk gets three to five PATs.

3.  John Carney at Cleveland Browns - Carney is one of the highest-scoring kickers in the NFL this season and he is still not owned in many fantasy leagues.

4. Matt Prater vs. Jacksonville Jaguars -  With 15 PATs and 12 field goals, Prater is the highest scoring kicker in the league. The Broncos offense should get back on track this week.

5. Mason Crosby at Seattle Seahawks - The Seahawks defense is just good enough to prevent a ton of touchdowns, but not quite good enough to keep the Packers out of field goal range.

DEFENSE / SPECIAL TEAMS

1. Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions - At this point is it even necessary to mention how awful are the Lions?

2. Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers - The Eagles are tied for the league lead with 18 sacks and are third in the league with five recovered fumbles. The ‘Niners have been decent, but the Eagles should keep young quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan off balance.

3. Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons - The Falcons have flashed moments of greatness this season, but the Bears have a well-balanced defense that does a little bit of everything. Devin Hester returning kicks does not hurt either.

4. Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts - Even facing the Colts, you can count on the Ravens fearsome D to keep things in check. The only reason the Ravens are not higher up is because they play Peyton and Company.

5. New York Giants at Cleveland Browns - They are not flashy, but the Giants always manage to get it done. The biggest knock on them is that they don’t create turnovers (only three), but the Browns are in a bit of turmoil.

The Twelve Greatest Individual Basketball Seasons of All-Time

Basketball by the numbers. Fantasy owners play it, and by all accounts, Wilt Chamberlain was fascinated with it. Others (including some of the greatest winners in the history of the pro game), not so much. The object of the game is, however, to outscore the opposition. Other skills and tactics attribute to that goal. In light of all that, what have been the dozen best seasons modern pro basketball players have ever had? Awarding no player more than once, here’s my take (I took ABA seasons into account because teams such as Denver, San Antonio and Indiana originated there):

ELGIN BAYLOR, L.A. LAKERS, 1961-62, Vitals: 48 games, 38.3 points per game, 18.6 rebounds, 4.6 assists.

Elgin Baylor was the reason the Lakers moved to Tinseltown, showtime before it had a name. In 1961, with tenstion between the U.S. and USSR heightened due to the onset of the Berlin Wall, his reserve number came up. He thus only served the Lakers on leave and weekends. He couldn’t practice with the club. Nonetheless, the NBA’s first frequent flyer averaged nearly 40 points, 19 rebounds was a routine evening, and when double-teamed, the creative passer dissed to open teammates. Dude attempted 13.1 free throws a night! His Lakers met Boston in the 1962 NBA Finals. One wonders in retrospect what manner of career digits Baylor may have amassed had he not hurt one knee badly during the 1963 campaign, and shattered his other kneecap in 1966. Or if arthroscopic surgery had existed then.

OSCAR ROBERTSON, CINCINNATI ROYALS, 1961-62, Vitals: 30.8 ppg., 12.4 rebounds, 11.5 assists.

It is one thing to be a team’s playmaker. It is generally another to be a 30 point-per-game producer. For NBA guards, however, only Oscar has managed a season where double-digit rebounds were the norm. No one else has come remotely close (even in this era of larger guards than he). We’re talking about a one-man revolution- a guard who, as a rookie in 1960-61, destroyed the season scoring average record for guards by eight points per game! Robertson’s contemporaries say he was the first player they ever picked up on defense at three-quarters court length. Silky feints, deft, pinpoint passes, tenacity under the boards- the three-time NCAA scoring champ had it all, and this season was a testament.

SPENCER HAYWOOD, DENVER ROCKETS, 1969-70, Vitals: 30 ppg., 19.5 rebounds.

Surprised? Don’t be. The juco player who became Olympic Games MVP at age 19, was only 20 when this season began. Blessed with agility, enormous hands, and the confidence of a king, Spencer was a manchild long before Darryl Dawkins, Shaq or LeBron. This was no brute- he shot better than 81% on his free throws in six season, huge mitts and all (compare that to Shaq & Wilt). He could play a little defense too. Court woes over jumping leagues, and other problems hampered his NBA career, but in 1970, and other seasons, Haywood demonstrated why he was the first “hardship case” to be allowed to play ABA or NBA ball before his college class graduated.

RICK BARRY, SAN FRANCISCO WARRIORS, 1966-67, Vitals: 35.6 ppg. 9.6 rebounds, 3.6 assists.

Before the 1965 NBA Draft, some g.m.’s fretted that Miami scoring machine Rick Barry might prove to frail for frontcourt play. Teams slated to select early, instead focused their sights on Princeton’s mercurial Bill Bradley, 6′8″, 230 lb. Davidson phenom Fred Hetzel, and 6′7″, 250 lb. Michigan bulwark Bill Buntin. The Warriors took a chance on the Hurricanes’ whippet as the fourth pick overall, and in his second campaign, he put up the aforementioned numbers. Barry thus became the first NBA player to lead the circuit in scoring since 1959-60 whose last name was not “Chamberlain”. More on the other guy later. The early Barry was not the deep shooter 1970’s fans recall, but a slasher in the mold of contemporary Billy Cunningham (minus “The Kangaroo Kid”s legendary hops). He could give it to you underhand, reverse, with “english”, hook, or stuff it in your face. Barry is also widely considered the best passing small forward other than Larry Bird who has ever played the game (Baylor fans would differ). As for his trademark underhand free throws, Barry sank 88.4% of those this sophomore sesaon. Oh- and the kid led Frisco to the NBA Finals. No wonder ABA owners in Oakland lured him away. As for Michigan’s Bill Buntin? He can tell his grandkids “I was drafted before Rick Barry”.

WILT CHAMBERLAIN, PHILADELPHIA 76′ers, 1965-66, Vitals: 33.5 ppg., 24.6 rebounds, 5.2. assists, 47.3 minutes per game.

Nobody roots for Goliath, but numbers don’t lie. This less selfish version of The Big Dipper, teamed with capable scorers such as Hal Greer and Chet Walker, shared the basketball, dominated the backboards, and led his new team to the NBA’s Eastern Finals vs. the rival Celtics. The Big Guy, never fouled at (a stat he maintained for his entire career), and played nearly every minute of every contest- despite double teams, covert banging, responsibilities on both ends of the floor. If they had dunk contests at All-Star Games in those days, perhaps he’d have donned a Superman cape as Dwight Howard recently did. Even Bill Russell couldn’t stop Wilt, though the Celts as a team often bested Wilt’s Warriors and Sixers (though not the next season, when Chamberlain averaged 7.8 assists and Philly won 45 of its first 49 games en route to a title).

NATE ARCHIBALD, 1972-73, KANSAS CITY-OMAHA KINGS, Vitals: 34.0 ppg., 11.4 assists, 84.7 FT %, 48.8 fg %

“Tiny”, by NBA standards, he was. Timid, he was not. Archibald was every bit as fast as AI, only he focused his drives north and south. The southpaw possessed a masterful handle, spectacular court vision, and the guts of a burglar. In an era of burly bigs such as Chamberlain, Willis Reed, Bob Lanier, and Wes Unseld, time after time he slipped into the lane to magically score. Contrary to popular belief, he was not “the only player ever to lead the NBA in scoring and assists”. Oscar Robertson accomplished the feat in 1967-68, but since “The Big O” only played in 65 games, due to injury, Dave Bing won the league’s scoring crown- which was then awarded the player with the most total points, not the highest average. By today’s standard’s, Robertson’s 29.2 ppg. and 9.7 assists led in both. Spotting Oscar at least five inches, and 50 pounds, “Tiny” became the second player in the history of the Royals-Kings franchise, and indeed the league, to be the premier scorer and playmaker in the same season.

KAREEM ABDUL-JABBAR, MILWAUKEE BUCKS, 1971-72, Vitals: 34.6 ppg., 16.6 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 57.4% FG

The man fans had become accustomed to calling “Big Lew” had all the gifts. He was graceful, he had rise, he could handle the basketball the length of the floor, and he had a nice touch. Forget the balding Laker pivot with the goggles- this was a dominant force for several seasons. No center has averaged 34 points since, and none might. The rebound average speaks to a Jabbar with a lot of spring in his step (Cap played 20 years) and tenacity in his game. The dimes? This was the second season Oscar Robertson was schooling the 7′2″ former Uclan to the ways of passing out of the double-team. These Bucks went 63-19- the season before they’d swept a talent-laden Bullets team in the NBA Finals.

MICHAEL JORDAN, CHICAGO BULLS, 1988-89, Vitals: 32.5 ppg., 8 rebounds, 8 assists, 2.9 steals

This was Jordan before he became Lord of the Rings- when his teammates included Sam Vincent, Brad Sellers and Charles Davis. Of whom much is given, much is asked. Probably the closest anyone has come to putting up Robertsonesque numbers. 32, 8 and 8 is a standard King James might shoot for. All achieved by a player often charged with watching the most dangerous offensive member of the opposition. Bird and “Magic” Johnson were garnering the headlines and the jewelry, but the 25-year old Bull was the darling of the dunk contest, and the hardest working man in pro sports.

ADRIAN DANTLEY, UTAH JAZZ, 1982-83, Vitals: 30.7 ppg, 6.4 rebounds, 4.8 assists, made 9.7 of 11.3 FT per game, 58% FG

The face of the Utah franchise before the arrivals of Stockton and Malone. Few NBA or ABA combatants 6′4″ and under have posted a shooting percentage of better than .550. AD did it six times, five of them in consecutive seasons. One has to have pretty savvy post moves to play power forward when one’s giving up five to seven inches in height to one’s average opponent. This was a season for the books, accomplished far from the limelight. Hall of Fame careers are not comprised of a season, but Dantley netted similar numbers from 1980 to 1986. Remember the context too- on a nightly basis, he faced players such as Kevin McHale, Dominique Wilkins, Marques Johnson, Larry Bird, Julius Erving and George McGinnis. Young guns seeking a primer on post play, and the triple-threat position, would do well to study Dantley’s feints, moves, and balance.

LEBRON JAMES, CLEVELAND CAVALIERS, 2007-8, Vitals: 30 ppg., 7.9 rebounds, 7.2. assists, 1.8 steals, 48.4 FG%

Had The King attended college for four years, last year would have been his rookie season in The League. He’s the reason the Cavs went 45-37. It’s not easy being a marked man every night, and finding teammates for open shots. Ballhandling duties, leadership, and court awareness mark his game. Unlike the legends listed above- he’s just getting started. Given his size, smarts, handle, and athleticism, he could approach Jordan’s best numbers in the major categories. The game has changed too much (less shots taken, less available rebounds) for him to average the unthinkable triple-double, though he’s far more suited to it than were Kobe Bryant or Jason Kidd. In the final analysis, the only number MJ was concerned with was the final score. LeBron will need better teammates if he hopes to match the six rings won by Abdul-Jabbar, “Magic” Johnson, and Michael Jordan.

BILL RUSSELL, BOSTON CELTICS, 1963-64, Vitals: 15 ppg, 24.7 rebounds, 4.7 assists

Often I wish the NBA had charted blocked shots when Russell, Chamberlain, and Nate Thurmond played. Only then would today’s fans truly appreciate the intimidation and evolution each brought to the game. Russ changed what had existed as basic basketball strategy for six decades before he played- work the ball as close to the basket as possible for the highest percentage shot. A 25 rebound average. What’s considered outstanding now, was a night’s work for Number Six. He could dish too- the Celtics’ half-court offense, such as it was, ran through the lanky lefty. But Red Auerbach’s teams preferred to run, and Russell’s rebounds triggered many a fast break, and 11 famous championships in 13 seasons.

HAKEEM OLAJUWON, HOUSTON ROCKETS, 1989-90, Vitals: 24.3 ppg. 14 rebounds, 4.6 blocks, 2.9 assists, 2.1 steals

If you’re looking for a quadruple-double on a given night- The Dream, and Nate Thurmond are your men. Scoring, assists, blocks, steals, boards- Olajuwon was a stat sheet filler and a born winner. While Russell was an agile, leaping defensive genius, no other center was as cat-quick on the offensive end as this half of Houston’s Twin Towers. In his heyday, he had as many moves as Earl “The Pearl” Monroe, and embarasses enemy pivots on the regular. Not even David Robinson could react quickly enough, or avoid being faked out of position by “The Dream Shake”. His 1990 numbers illustrate his superstar ability despite regular competition such as Ewing, Robinson and Robert Parrish.

Though by its very nature, and number of players per team, basketball is the ultimate team sport. Still, the prolonged individual efforts cited above are the gold standard of professional play. Some were achieved under a bright spotlight, others, by 2008 measures, in relative anonymity. As we approach a new season, they all deserve renewed attention.