If he can stay on the floor, Roy Hibbert can easily average a double-double
First of all, apologies for the long hiatus. The blog’s transition to Wordpress took much longer than expected, and during this time, the offseason ended and the regular season commenced.
All the things I had wanted to say and the posts I had prepared have been rendered pointless now by the lengthy delay, so all I will do here is offer a brief recap.
Preseason round up
Since the Pacers dropped their second preseason game to Denver Nuggets in Beijing, they topped the Houston Rockets 119-104, lost to the New Orleans Hornets 108-96, got thrashed by the Orlando Magic 117-87, and finally edged the San Antonio Spurs 114-112 to finish up their preseason an uninspiring but not devastating 3-4.
Regular season thus far
So far, so bad for the Indiana Pacers in the 2009-2010 regular season. Things kicked off with a loss to the Atlanta Hawks, 120-109. The game was close until the Hawks pulled away in the 4th quarter. Despite a sore heel, Danny Granger was superb, scoring 31 points, while reserves Earl Watson and Dahntay Jones added 20 and 17, respectively. The Hawks are a team looking towards the top 4 seeds in the East, so the outcome was not totally unexpected, though it would have been good to open the season with a victory.
Brandon Rush has really struggled so far
Moving on, game 2 saw the Pacers lose their home opener to the Miami Heat, 96-83, where Jermaine O’Neal lit up his former squad with 22 points and 12 rebounds. Strangely, O’Neal said after the game that he no longer felt animosity towards the Pacers, who not only took a gamble on him (as a young propsect from Portland) but also developed him into an All-Star and fringe MVP candidate. Honestly, what did O’Neal have to complain about? Yes, he was injured a lot, and that probably wasn’t his fault, but perhaps the loyal Indiana fans just weren’t happy with his lack of leadership skills and inability to take the team to the next level. And it was recently revealed that Jermaine had requested to be traded long before the Pacers put him out of his misery, so there must have been some resentment for his perceived disloyalty when things turned sour after the Detroit brawl, which he was an integral part of (including the hilarious ’sliding punch’).
The third game of the season was brutal, and it demonstrated the difference between the preseason and the regular season. The Denver Nuggets pummeled the Pacers 111-93 in Indiana. The game was all but over after the first quarter, when the Nuggets raced off to a 30-13 lead.
So 3 games, 3 losses, and a 0-3 record to start off the season. The Pacers are playing the New York Knicks at the Garden tonight, so if there’s a time to break out of a slump, this is it!
Injuries
I recall a time during the offseason when the injury situation (something that has plagued the Pacers for what feels like forever) seemed pretty rosy. Mike Dunleavy was set to return at the start of the season (apparently), Tyler Hansbrough’s injury wasn’t reported, and everyone else was in tip top shape.
However, as usual it was just another spin job by the Pacers, and in reality the injury situation doesn’t look too bright right now. Dunleavy’s return date has been reset to ‘unknown’, and there’s no word on when Hansbrough will be in playing shape. Granger has been struggling with his shot, and I imagine it has something to do with his sore foot. Jeff Foster injured his ankle and Troy Murphy his back. Travis Diener still has that mysterious injured toe.
Hopefully the injury bug won’t linger for too much longer, or else this season could start to look very grim.
Thoughts
The Pacers are not playing cohesively right now, and I’m not sure if it’s the injuries or just the lack of chemistry. It certainly can’t be the new ‘defensive’ mindset they had been talking about all summer. Through 3 games, the Pacers have allowed 109 points per game, while only putting up 95 in return. Keep in mind that the opponents they have faced thus far are regarded as playoff teams, but it doesn’t excuse the fact that all 3 losses were by double digits.
Danny Granger has been forcing his shot since the first game, shooting just 6-20 against Miami and 6-16 against Denver. The problem is, without more output from his teammates, Granger hasn’t really had much of a choice. Coupled with the injury, this must be a tough stretch for Danny.
Dahntay Jones has brought his offense along with his defense to the Pacers
As it turns out, the problem with the Pacers hasn’t been the new players they brought in over the summer. Guys like Dahntay Jones (14.3ppg), Luther Head (9.3ppg), Earl Watson (8.0ppg) and Solomon Jones (6.3ppg) have all been solid. Unfortunately, they have not appeared to affect the ‘defensive mentality’ of the team whatsoever.
On the other hand, it is the incumbent players that have been struggling. Granger is playing injured so he will get a free pass for now, but Brandon Rush, the starting shooting guard, has been playing awful so far, averaging just 5.3 points. Roy Hibbert is the one that has visibly stepped up his game, averaging 9.3 points and 9.0 rebounds, but he’s still racking up 4.3 fouls in just 25 minutes a game. The expectations on Rush and Hibbert in only their second year seem to be unreasonably high, but for now the Pacers look to be content to allow the guys to find their own way for the benefit of the future at the expense of some wins in the present.
The guy that has underperformed the most in my mind has been TJ Ford, who still doesn’t look comfortable in the O’Brien offense. With Jarrett Jack out of the way, many thought he would emerge as the undisputed starting PG of the team this season, but his play to start the season has been downright dreadful, averaging just 7.7 points and a jaw-dropping 1.7 assists on 29.2% shooting from the field. If TJ keeps this up the Pacers might as well give JT (Jamaal Tinsley) a call.
Outlook
I never got to put in my predictions for the Pacers before the season commenced. I have been critical of the basketball experts for overlooking the Pacers, with most predicting another disappointing season out of the playoffs and a finish of around 11th to 14th in the East. I believe only Chad Ford from ESPN gave the Pacers half a shot:
“The Pacers were the best team no one paid attention to last season. Riddled with injuries, the team still almost made the playoffs and could score on anyone. They didn’t add star power this summer, but they did shore up their defense. If Mike Dunleavy gets healthy, they’ll surprise a lot of people.”
Thanks Chad, but even his prediction was qualified by Dunleavy’s health.
So having regard to the current injury situation, and keeping in mind that it is a long season, I’m going to predict that the Pacers will win 38 games this season, which will be good enough to earn them either another 9th place finish or a first round sweep at the hands of the first seed!
As for the immediate future, I am hoping that they can take down the Knicks before hosting Washington and Golden State. My guess is that if the Pacers can end the month of November with a record of 7-9 then they will be happy with the way things are progressing. However, I can just as easily see then drop to 5-11, and if so, it’s going to be a long road back.
