Prospect Profile #29: Kelvin De Leon, RF

by Sean P on November 19, 2009

Year Age Lg G PA AB R H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS TB GDP HBP
2008 17 DOSL 63 281 235 43 68 16 2 9 8 3 34 74 .289 .399 .489 .888 115 1 10
2009 18 GULF 56 221 201 28 54 13 0 7 5 1 16 61 .269 .330 .438 .768 88 2 3
2 Seasons 119 502 436 71 122 29 2 16 13 4 50 135 .280 .369 .466 .834 203 3 13
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/19/2009.

Background: Kelvin De Leon was the key free agent international signing for the Yankees in 2007. Born in Boca Chica De Leon is a 6’2” 180 lb outfielder that first caught scouts eyes in 2006. The Dominican Republic native De Leon signed for 1.2 million dollars as a 16 year old. Some will remember De Leon as the first piece to the scouting scandal that was uncovered in 2008 (De Leon unknowingly was fleeced for 100K by two MLB scouts). As an extremely raw potential talent the Yankees decided to send him to the Dominican summer league in 2008.

2008

De Leon’s big problem early was defense. The first day of minor league spring training in 2008, De Leon took an improper route to a ball in right centerfield and knocked out CJ Henry who was playing center. The admittedly raw De Leon made it a goal to prioritize defense when he was sent south for the summer but it was his bat that stood out. De Leon hit .289/.399/.489 with 9 home runs which was part of the 27 extra base hits he compiled in just 235 at bats. He didn’t have two consecutive games without at least 1 hit until the last 3 of his season. More importantly, coaches and scouts came away more impressed with his effort and recognized his improving defense. Typical for young players, he did struggle with pitch recognition and strikeouts. De Leon struck out 74 times in 08 compared to just 34 walks.

2009

De Leon has struggled in his time with the Yankees to overcome the perception that he doesn’t give 100% the entire time he plays. He would have a good chance to prove the doubters wrong the GCL in 2009.

After 2008 De Leon was looking more like a slugger but helped to regain that 5 tool moniker that was associated with his name in 2007. He hit .239/.330/.438 in 201 at bats with 7 home runs, 5 stolen bases and 12 doubles. Again he struggled with the strikeout- 30% of his at bats ended with one. 2009 was more about getting familiar with the United States (he’s still learning English) and improving his overall game. The increase in hustle and uptick in effort was evident for manager Tommy Slater as was De Leon’s defensive improvement. During instructional league play in Dominican Republic, De Leon continued to improve and impressed scouts defensively and again turned heads with his hustle. Additionally its reported evidence of his improved strike zone judgment was seen- he’s still prone to swinging and missing on breaking pitches but seems to have improved his ability to lay off pitches out of the zone.

2010

De Leon will probably start off in the GCL next year unless he does something really impressive during the spring. Much of his game is still very raw and his pitch selection and ability to cut down on the strikeouts has not been improved enough to warrant any sort of promotion. De Leon can mash though and his power to all fields should be interesting to watch in 2010 as he continues to grow into his body. He may see time in Charleston depending on what he can do early in 2010.

Scouting Report

Hitting: De Leon can drive the ball well to all fields. He has easy power the opposite way and the only thing more impressive than the power he’s displayed so far is his future potential. As mentioned earlier De Leon struggles most with pitch recognition however this is fairly typical of international free agents of his ilk. He’s previously displayed patience and the ability to wait on good pitches to hit and most feel that if he develops as expected, he’ll be an offensive force.

Defense: Defense is probably De Leon’s biggest weakness at this point. He has a very good arm and great natural quickness so many feel he’ll easily be able to mature into a great defender. The Yankees have taken the better part of two years in order to teach him proper routes and the ability to read the ball off the bat and the consensus seems to be that it’s paying off. No one is raving about his defensive ability yet but he certainly has a room to be at worst, an average defender.

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Rule 5 Draft: Who Should the Yankees Protect?

by Greg Fertel on November 18, 2009

There may be one or two of you out there who cares what I think about the Rule 5 draft, so I figured it was worth taking the time to put a post up about it. The Rule 5 draft is always fun for prospect enthusiasts, so lets take a look at what I think the Yanks should do.

If a player is selected, they have to remain in the majors for the entire season. If the team can't keep them there, they are offered back to the original organization. In 2008, the Yankees lost Reegie Corona, Ivan Nova, Zach Kroenke, and Jason Jones in the Rule 5 draft.

The Yankees took the first three back, and worked out a deal with the Twins to let them retain Jason Jones. There are three players eligible for the Rule 5 draft who are locks to be added to the 40 man roster. I believe that the deadline for them to be added is November 20th, and the actual Rule 5 draft will take place on December 10th. Austin Jackson, Ivan Nova, and Kevin Russo will all be added to the roster.

They are all players who have had success at AAA, meaning it wouldn't be too difficult for another team to hold them on their roster all season. These guys all have futures with the Yankees, so they need to be retained.

After adding those three, I believe that the Yankees will have room to protect two more players. The notable guys to look out for are pitchers Grant Duff, Romulo Sanchez, Kanekoa Texeira, Zach Kroenke, Kevin Whelan, George Kontos and position players Reegie Corona, Eduardo Nunez, and Colin Curtis.

Romulo Sanchez put together a very nice season for the Yankees, and I ranked him as the 27th best prospect in the Yankee organization. He was hitting 98-99 as a starter, while getting a ton of ground balls and a strikeout per inning.

He'll be 26 in 2009, a bit old for a prospect, but an arm like that is worth keeping around. After the top three guys, Romulo is my first choice to be protected. The X-factor here is that Romulo is a fun name to say, giving him an extra edge.

Grant Duff is another guy who is a bit older and also has a huge fastball. He pitched well in AA and has been pitching pretty will in the Arizona Fall League. I'm not too high on him, but he is a guy who would almost definitely be snatched away in the Rule 5. With his fastball, he could stick as the last guy out of the bullpen for another team.

Kanekoa Texeira was thrown into the Swisher deal and was effective and versatile for Trenton in 2009. He throws a heavy fastball that generates ground balls and he doesn't walk too many hitters. He is definitely a risk to be taken and warrants being protected.

Zach Kroenke is a lefty with fringy stuff who put up a low ERA in Scranton in 2009. With Phil Coke, Mike Dunn, and Damaso Marte fighting for appearances in 2010, I don't see room for a guy like Kroenke on the 40-man.

Kevin Whelan has always tantalized with his stuff, but his control issues are severe. These problems didn't go away in 2009, as he walked 5.5 batters per nine innings. If another team takes him, it's hard to see him sticking in the majors with control issues like that.

I don't see the Yankees protecting George Kontos, as he is out with Tommy John Surgery, but he could definitely be taken in the draft. He was next in line for a call-up to the majors before succumbing to injury. If another team takes him, they can stash him on the DL, give him some time to rehab and then have to keep him on the major league roster for a year. Before his injury, he was basically big league ready, so a team would be smart to grab him from the Yankees for nothing.

The position player who is garnering the most support to be protected is Eduardo Nunez. I have frequently voiced my thoughts that he is overrated, but others still really like the guy. The reason I don't think he needs to be protected is because I don't see any way he can stick with a major league team. He hit well in AA, but his bat is nowhere near major league ready.

The more glaring reason is his defense. He has a strong arm, but is a pretty bad defensive shortstop at this point. If another team drafted him and kept him, they would pretty much be playing with a 24-man roster all season long, so it is very doubtful he needs to be protected.

Colin Curtis and Reegie Corona don't really do anything to stick out. They play solid defense, but don't possess much power and don't project to be regulars. They are both guys who could be taken and stick as bench players, but it wouldn't be much of a loss for the Yankees.

This leaves two spots for Romulo Sanchez, Grant Duff, and Kanekoa Texeira. I would make sure to protect Romulo, because he could help the team in 2010. If the Yankees do in fact have room for another player, I would add Texeira. He has had more success than Duff at a younger age and is more versatile.

Cashman said these things tend to work themselves out, so I wouldn't be too concerned about the Rule 5 Draft. If the Yankees let someone get a way, they likely don't believe he is a future regular for them. The depth of the system ensures that the Yankees will lose a few players, and when that happens, be happy for the player who is getting a chance to stick in the majors; don't be upset that the Yankees are losing them.

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Checking in on the Yankees in the Dominican Winter League

by Greg Fertel on November 17, 2009

Here's a rundown of how everyone in the DWL is doing:

Juan Miranda, 1B: 21 AB, 10 H, 3 2B, 1 HR, 2 BB, 3 K, .476/.560/.762 - Recently learned that the Yankees received an extra option on him, so he will remain with the organization in 2010.

Eduardo Nunez, SS: 3 AB, 1 H, 1 BB, .333/.500/.333 - Hitting .333, maybe I was wrong about him after all!

Abraham Almonte, OF: 7 G, 5 AB, 1 H, 1 BB, 2 K, .200/.333/.200 - Looks like he isn't starting over there.

Ivan Nova, RHP: 5 G, 4 GS, 25.2 IP, 17 H, 3 ER, 4 BB(1 IBB), 17 K, 1.05 ERA - Very impressive stuff from Nova. He's one of the sure bets to be added to the 40-man this week.

Jose G. Valdez, RHP: 12 G, 12.2 IP, 7 H, 2 ER, 0 BB, 10 K, 1.42 ERA - No walks in nearly 13 IP, solid.

Jonathan Ortiz, RHP: 6 G, 4 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 3 K, 0.00 ERA

Wilkins Arias, LHP: 13 G, 10 IP, 6 H, 6 ER, 4 BB, 8 K, 5.40 ERA

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New York Yankees Minor League Free Agents

by Greg Fertel on November 17, 2009

The Game of Baseball Blog hits us with the complete list of minor league free agents. Here are the Yankees on the list:

N.Y. Yankees (17)
Pitchers: RHP Paul Bush, RHP Michael Gardner, RHP Justin Pope, RHP Humberto Sanchez, RHP Jason Stephens, RHP Jose Valdez
Catchers: Brian Peterson, Chris Stewart
Infielders: Doug Bernier, Eric Duncan, Carlos Mendoza, Cody Ransom, Marcos Vechionacci
Outfielders: Edwar Gonzalez, Freddy Guzman, Richie Robnett, John Rodriguez

The two names that stick out at me are Eric Duncan and Humberto Sanchez. Eric Duncan was the Yankees' top prospect for a few years but never really developed into anything. You should check out what Steven Goldman has to say about Duncan. If the Yankees don't bring Duncan back, and I doubt they will, I wish him well with his next organization.

I expect the Yankees to bring Humberto Sanchez back on a minor league deal. They were able to do it before the 2009 season, so I expect them to be able to bring him back again. There is still some hope for him to be a middle reliever.

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Random Yankee-Related Links 11/17

by Greg Fertel on November 17, 2009

The guys over at Pinstripe Alley had some questions for Frankie Piliere, former SaberScouting writer and former Rangers' scout. Gotta give credit to them for asking good questions, and it's nice to see an unbiased take on the farm system. Regarding Zach McAllister, Piliere says, "It would have to be intriguing to see how his already good stuff translated to short relief.  I'm a big fan of breaking these guys in in the pen." If you're going to turn a starter into a relief pitcher, it should be done with a guy like McAllister over someone like Hughes or Joba. I agree with Frankie here, though. I think it's a good idea to break young starting pitchers into the big leagues in a relief role.

Project Prospect released a list of their top 15 center field prospects. Slade Heathcott came in at 14th on the list; surprisingly, Austin Jackson didn't even make the cut. I asked Adam Foster, the guy who put together the list, why he didn't include Jackson. His response was, "I don't really see a high ceiling or floor w/ him." This is a definite change of heart, as Austin Jackson was ranked tenth on this same list last year, and on 2007, Foster also described Jackson as having "immense talent."(h/t Jamal) I've said it before, but this is just further evidence that A-Jack's stock fell this year, not rose.

Chris Jaffe, Hardball Times writer and author of a new book, "Evaluating Baseball's Managers", hooks us up with an excerpt from the book on famed Yankee skipper Billy Martin. It's a very good read, and Jaffe is the go-to-guy when it comes to exploring whether or not a manager was effective or not.

Sean S. over at Yankees Daily put together a profile of Reegie Corona. He didn't make our top 30, so we won't be profiling him here. Luckily, there are a ton of Yankee resources around, so you can go check it out over there.

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Yankees’ 2010 Prospect Profile #30: Brad Suttle, 3B

by Greg Fertel on November 16, 2009

Brad Suttle

Year Age Tm G PA AB H 2B 3B HR SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG
2008 22 Charleston 96 428 377 102 23 7 11 2 1 45 93 .271 .348 .456
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table Generated 11/14/2009.

Drafted: The Yankees' selected Suttle in the 4th round of the 2007 draft as a Draft-Eligible Sophomore out of the University of Texas.

Background: The switch-hitting third baseman was born in San Antonio, TX and attended the University of Texas for two years before being drafted by the Yankees in 2007. Previously, he was drafted by the Angels in the 21st round of the 2005 draft. He had a strong commit to UT, so would have required a well-above slot bonus to sign out of high school.

As a draft-eligible sophomore, he had leverage in his negotiations with the Yankees, and ended up signing for a hefty bonus of $1.3 million, a record for a fourth round pick. Suttle is a type 1 diabetic, so that is a big hurdle he has had to overcome to get this far.

Injuries: Bradley Suttle missed the entire 2009 season with shoulder injuries. Immediately after the 2008 season, he had labrum surgery, and was expected to miss some of 2009, but get some action as a designated hitter. Then, in June of 2009, he had another surgery on the same shoulder.

Arm strength is important for Suttle over at third base, so it remains to be seen whether he'll recover fully from his surgeries. With no further setbacks, he's on track to be available at the start of the 2010 season.

Hitting: Entering the 2007 draft, scouts raved about Suttle's hitting ability. Baseball America was especially impressed, naming him the best pure college hitter available in the draft. He struggled with the transition to a wooden bat in the Hawaii Winter League, so the Yankees revamped his swing prior to the '08 season. Scouts preferred his swing from the left side of the plate, and that held up through his first professional season. He had an OPS of .864 against righties and .647 versus lefties in Charleston over the 2008 season.

While Suttle only hit eleven home runs, he does have quite a bit of power potential. Right now, his line drive swing doesn't get much lift and results in lots of doubles. As he continues to mature as a hitter, we can expect to see more power from him.

Defense: When Suttle was drafted, there were questions about whether or not he would be able to stick at third base. After a complete season in the South Atlantic League, where he was voted the best defensive third baseman, those questions were largely quelled.

The numbers backed this assessment up as well, as TotalZone rated Suttle as +21 runs per 150 games played. I had heard he had soft hands and an accurate arm, but he didn't have great lateral movement. The award and these numbers suggest that maybe his range is pretty good.

Progress: Up until his injury, Suttle had showed a very good amount of progress. Yankee coaches and staff had been impressed with his improvements, and his stock was steadily rising. Baseball America's John Manuel rated Suttle the Yankees' 10th best prospect, directly following Mark Melancon. His injuries have halted his progress, but if he has a strong season, he could jump right back into the Yankees' top 10 prospects.

2010 Outlook: If Suttle's shoulder is back to complete health, he can really break out in 2010. He had a successful season in 2008 while battling groin and shoulder injuries, so it will be interesting to see what he can do if he's healthy. He should start the season in Tampa as a 24-year-old. Suttle will be a little old for the level, so it will be very interesting to keep an eye on him and see how he performs.

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Sean Smith Projections

by Sean P on November 15, 2009

Name HR SB AVG OBP SLG R150 0.349 0.427 6
Melky Cabrera 12 11 0.284 0.349 0.427 6
Brett Gardner 3 28 0.267 0.353 0.38 -1
Kevin Russo 5 8 0.276 0.331 0.396 -5
Austin Jackson 5 15 0.253 0.311 0.37 -15
Shelly Duncan 24 3 0.257 0.34 0.512 16
Reegie Corona 4 14 0.247 0.308 0.345 -20
Ramiro Pena 3 7 0.251 0.309 0.35 -21
Francisco Cervelli 3 1 0.256 0.307 0.366 -15
Hideki Matsui 19 1 0.266 0.357 0.452 13
Johnny Damon 17 16 0.268 0.355 0.43 8
Jose Molina 3 0 0.223 0.281 0.312 -34

These are the projections that Sean Smith has put out for his site baseballprojection.com. To see the entire Yankee team, click through to his page. I added HRs and SBs just for kicks really but since each player has a projected amount of ABs they really don't mean much. R150 for anyone who was wondering can be explained as:

"The R150 column is linear weights runs per 150 games, or 625 plate appearances. This figure is based on what the player projection would have looked like in a neutral park and league, not on the projected stats for the park they are playing in"

Here are my quick thoughts:

-The Shelly Duncan projection is pretty nutty. The way projection systems work can be lead to big misses like that sometimes but I wouldn't seriously expect anywhere near that kind of production from Shelly.

- When you take Gardners defensive advantage over Melky's you have two similarly valuable players. I still like Gardner though.

- As high as Bill James was on Austin Jackson, Sean Smith I think comes a little closer to reality.

-Matsui's and Damon's numbers are pretty similar. Considering Damon at least has (some) utility as an outfielder I think this is a pretty clear wash as well. I'd say both of those projections are fair, however you'll probably see a slightly better performance from each playing in Yankee stadium.

- I wouldn't have thought Kevin Russo would project to hit that well for the Yankees next year. Obviously that projection isn't stunning, but it is interesting that its much better than Cervelli's and Pena's projections.

- The difference between Molina and Francisco Cervelli is hard to figure out because catching defense is a huge part of their values. I think everyone is in agreement though that Cervelli is the better choice for backing up Posada in 2010.

Let's hear what you think.

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Checking in on the Yankees in the Arizona Fall League

by Greg Fertel on November 14, 2009

Sorry I haven't really been doing a good job of giving you guys updates since the minor league seasons ended. Lets take a look at how everyone is doing in the AFL so far.

Austin Romine, C: 15 AB, 6 H, 1 BB, 4 K, .400/.438/.400 - Left the AFL with a mild injury.

Colin Curtis, OF: 67 AB, 26 H, 7 2B, 2 3B, 3 HR, 8 BB, 10 K, .388/.453/.687 - Has stolen two bases and been caught twice. He has hit well, but the AFL is a notorious hitters league.

Brandon Laird, 3B: 83 AB, 26 H, 7 2B, 6 HR, 7 BB, 19 K, .313/.374/.614 - Got off to a blazing start but has cooled down a bit. This is the highest level of competition he's faced, so he has definitely impressed.

Grant Duff, RHP: 8.1 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 5 BB, 4 K, 3.24 ERA -  velocity has been in the 94-95 range. He went in with the opportunity to secure a 40-man spot, but I'm not sure he's done anything to do so.

Michael Dunn, LHP: 8.1 IP, 8 H, 4 ER, 2 HR, 7 BB (1 IBB), 15 K, 4.32 ERA - He's been throwing heat, getting up over 96 on PitchFX. The strikeout numbers are ridiculous, but the walk rate continues to be too high.

Ian Kennedy, RHP: 24.2 IP, 25 H, 13 ER, 1 HR, 5 BB, 23 K, 4.74 ERA - Very encouraged by his performance so far in the AFL. The ERA isn't too concerning considering it's the AFL, and the K:BB ratio is nice. His velocity has been in the 90-91 range.

Zach Kroenke, LHP: 14.1 IP, 13 H, 8 ER, 2 HR, 4 BB, 12 K, 5.02 ERA - The strikeouts are nice, but I'm still not a big fan of Kroenke. The Yankees have Marte, Coke, Dunn, and de la Rosa on the 40-man so I don't see a spot for him.

Next up, prospects in the DWL.

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A Scout’s Take on Montero, Brackman, Banuelos, and Hector Noesi

by Greg Fertel on November 13, 2009

Former Texas Rangers scout, Frankie Piliere, discusses some Yankee prospects on Fanhouse. He runs down Jesus Montero, Andrew Brackman, Manny Banuelos, and Hector Noesi. I already know a ton about the first three guys, but the Hector Noesi report really intrigued me. As far as unheralded guys in the system go, Noesi's 2009 numbers really stand out. Here's what Piliere has to say about him:

Hector Noesi, RHP -- He does not have the gifts or feel for pitching that Banuelos has, but that is certainly no insult. Noesi is the type of prospect that shows up in deals quite frequently. He's a little older than you'd like for a pitcher below Double-A, but has the stuff of a No. 3 big-league starter. Another reason you may not know much about Noesi is because in 2008 he was much shorter in his arsenal than he is today.

When I had the chance to see him then, he was pitcher severely lacking in secondary pitches despite his good velocity and fastball command. This year was a much different story. He displayed downright dominance at times, especially in his stint with at low Single-A Charleston (S.C.). Maybe most impressive of all was his stamina; his stuff would sometimes improve as his pitch count mounted. Although he still likes to mostly to work of his well spotted 90-94 mph fastball, this year there was the curveball as well. With good 12-6 action, the curveball came out whenever Noesi seemed to need it this year. He had a feel for just how much to mix it in and varied the speeds from 72-76 mph. With a second pitch that now shows flashes of being plus, and an occasional changeup mixed in, Noesi showed tremendous growth in 2009 and became a complete pitcher. He could be a guy that continues to emerge in a hurry and may not be far off from the big leagues.

That's high praise for a guy who I neglected to include in my top 30 prospects. It's not just a scouting improvement, check out this graph:

Book1_21764_image001

Noesi will be 23 for the 2010 season and should start in AA. Piliere mentions that you would prefer a guy to make it that far at a younger age, but he's really not too far behind. Noesi has now struck out over one batter per inning for his minor league career, and has walked less than two per nine innings. If that's not a recipe for success, I don't know what is. Noesi has a lot of things going for him; he's steadily improved, and his repertoire has gotten much stronger. His stock has risen quite a bit, and he probably deserves a spot in the top 30. I believe he is eligible for the Rule 5, but I don't think he'll need to be protected given the fact that he hasn't pitched above A-level ball. This guy is a definite sleeper for 2010 and worth keeping an eye on if the Yankees retain him.

Thanks to Frankie for the good info. I know he is always clamoring for Twitter followers, so if you're on Twitter, follow him @FrankiePiliere. While you're at it, follow me as well @GregFertel.

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Rule 5 Musings on the Yankees Around the Blogosphere

by Greg Fertel on November 12, 2009

It looks like the deadline to protect players from the Rule 5 draft will be sometime around November 20th. It's getting close, so prognosticators have started to look into the question of who the Yankees should protect. I haven't gotten around to it, but others have done a great job of breaking down the problem and suggesting a solution of their own. Cashman said that these things tend to work themselves out, as they did with the trade for Nick Swisher last offseason.

Chad Jennings broke it down extensively in two parts: Part I and Part II. He 'guesses' that Ivan Nova will be protected, but isn't positive. I think Nova is probably the surest thing to be protected. He really broke out and will be an injury or two away from getting a few spot starts in the majors in 2010.

Mike Axisa breaks down every single guy he thinks is an option, and chooses personal favorite Romulo Sanchez to take the last spot.

EJ Fagan chimes in as well. He doesn't get as in-depth as Mike, but still shows us who is available and who is at risk.

I should get around to giving you my thoughts next week. I'm glad I waited, because these guys all give me a great starting point.

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