MVN: Most Valuable Network

#1

Posted by jinaz, October 31, 2008 9:04 AM

Nice article--as a new PA resident, I'll be watching Bucs games a bit more often now, so it will be interesting to see how this develops. My Reds let Griffey play CF for years a while back due to seniority and his offense, despite the fact that his defense became so bad it almost negated his value. Hopefully that will not happen with the Pirates.

FWIW, Rally's defensive projections are probably the best we have available now. He has McLouth as a +1 fielder in an outfield corner, and -9 runs in CF. Not as extreme as the numbers I calculated, but any time a player is costing you a win on defense at a position, I agree that you need to think about moving him down the defensive spectrum.
-j

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#2

Posted by Sky, October 31, 2008 10:49 AM

Good stuff, Matt. Good use of the fielding stats.

Players switching positions is always a difficult topic. The position adjustments used by Justin are based on differences in difficult of position. For example, in general, players rate ten runs better by the fielding ratings in left field than center field, so we require them to be ten runs better at the plate to be equally valuable. For McLouth to be a more valuable overall player in left field, you'd need him to rate MORE than ten runs better over there.

For bad fielders, that usually happens. Center fielders are hit many more balls, highlighting their range (or lack thereof). Bad fielders get overexposed in center. So you'd assume that yes, McLouth would be a little more valuable in left. The other consideration is throwing arm, even though we're not measuring that here. Individual players can also have skills that fit better in left instead of center. Do Pirate fans notice anything like that?

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#3

Posted by Matt Bandi, October 31, 2008 1:26 PM

Thanks to Justin and Sky for stopping by to weigh in with their thoughts.

Probably the biggest issue with McLouth's potential move to left is that PNC Park's left field is a lot like playing center in another park. There is a ton of room, and I wonder if McLouth's lack of range would still be exposed.

I briefly touched on this in the article, but I think McLouth also gets shortchanged a bit by ZR stats. He always seems to do well with the little things that can't really be measured (throwing to the correct base, etc.). Obviously, those things can't fully make up for his defensive shortcomings, but it's something to keep in mind. I am very interested to see how he rates in Tom Tango's 2008 fan voting. I think he came in about average after limited playing time in 2007.

McLouth may be able to improve his numbers with better positioning. He made quite a bit of out-of-zone plays, which could indicate that he is starting off out of position. Or he may have just had more chances. He tends to play a pretty shallow center, and the majority of his issues seem to involve going back on fly balls.

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#4

Posted by Sky, October 31, 2008 4:39 PM

STATS zone rating doesn't even count out-of-zone plays, so if McClouth's trading in-zone plays for out-of-zone plays, it might be underrating him.

Hardball Times (from John Walsh) has arm ratings (not 2008 yet):

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/stats/players/?lastName=mclouth&firstName=

Eye-balling it, he's below-average.

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