November 25, 2008

2009 projections from Statistically Speaking

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By Matt Bandi

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Last week, Brian Cartwright released his 2009 offensive projections over at Statistically Speaking. I figured I would take a look at the Pirates' numbers. A quick warning...they're pretty ugly.

Here is a look at projected wOBA in graphical form. In short, wOBA is a stat created by Tom Tango that combines the value of on-base skills and power into a single number that is a more accurate measure than OPS. It is on the scale of on-base percentage, with an average hitter coming in around .340.

 

2009 Projection

 

Player wOBA
Pearce 0.349
Ad. LaRoche 0.348
Doumit 0.345
McLouth 0.340
Moss 0.327
An. LaRoche 0.323
Sanchez 0.320
Bixler 0.312
Morgan 0.308
Wilson 0.306
Diaz 0.304
Cruz 0.274

 

For more perspective, here are some Pirate wOBA's from 2008.

 

Actual 2008
 
Player wOBA
Ad. LaRoche 0.362
Doumit 0.371
McLouth 0.372
Sanchez 0.315
Morgan 0.339
Wilson 0.303
 

As you can see, Brian has a few Pirates in the average range and the rest as depressingly mediocre hitters. There are a few issues I have with the projections. I don't see McLouth or Doumit, particularly McLouth, regressing quite so much. Also, I don't think Pearce will outperform Andy LaRoche to this degree. Freddy Sanchez may rebound a bit more than this. Other than that, this is probably about what we can expect next season. It could get ugly.

Head over to Statistically Speaking to check out the rest of Brian's projections. Some very good stuff there.

 

EDIT: It looks like the graphs are not showing up correctly in certain browsers, so I added lists so that everyone can see the numbers.

Tags: MLB, Pirates, Pittsburgh Pirates

Discussion

2 Comments on "2009 projections from Statistically Speaking"

#1

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Posted by Brian Cartwright, November 25, 2008 8:25 PM

I'm a lifelong Pirate fan, so I have a little more expertise here.

Pedro Alvarez is already the best hitter in the Pirates system. He had an injury in 2008, which kept his PAs and his production down. He has very good offense for 3b, above avg for 1b. Walks a little above avg, strikes out a lot. A lot like Jason Bay.

Andy LaRoche also had a 2008 injury. The two previous years his projected wOBA was .344, above avg for 3b.

Steve Pearce was up in 2007, down in 2008. Every year his projections have him virtually a rh clone of Adam LaRoche. Let him play rf.

Brandon Moss has been in the .330s for four years. That sucks for an outfielder. He's also dreadfully slow on the bases and not a great fielder.

Andrew McCutchen is just below average for cf, but with speed and defense, so I'm in favor of him being the starting cf in 2009, moving Nate to lf and benching or trading Moss. Let Morgan be the backup of.

Neil Walker sucks and will likely never be a major league starter.

Jamie Romak looks promising, on the Craig Wilson level. His normalized, single seasons wOBAs the past 3 years have been .365, .376, .367. Tremendous power, lots of K's. 250/340/530. If he can do the same in 2009 at AA/AAA, put him in rf in 2010 and move Pearce to 1b.

Jim Negrych moved to 3b in 2008. I'd move him back to 2b, where he could hit 292/355/420, wOBA in the 340's. A lefty Freddy.

Matt Hague looks like he could be a good hitter at 3b, 280's with avg power.

Shelby Ford is avg at 2b.

That's all folks

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#2

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Posted by Brian Cartwright, November 25, 2008 8:28 PM

Forgot Brian Bixler. Could actually hit just about the same as Jack, supposed to be fairly good defensively. Luis Cruz is a horrible hitter.

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