November 19, 2008

Pirates defense according to PMR

Freddy Sanchez - Matt Bandi, MVN

David Pinto has been releasing his 2008 Probabilistic Model of Range (PMR) numbers, so I figured we should check out how the Pirates performed. PMR is a fielding metric that basically uses an assortment of play by play data from Baseball Info Solutions (such as direction and velocity) to determine an expected number of outs for each team or player. Using the expected number of outs and the total number of balls in play, David can calculate the expected Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER). Finally, he compares the actual DER and the expected DER to come up with the PMR ratio. A ratio above 100 signifies a positive defense, while a ratio below 100 indicates that the defense is hurting the team.  (Click here for more details.)

Dan Turkenkopf converted these ratios to defensive runs above or below average per 4000 balls in play, or approximately a full season.

Here is how the Pirates fared in 2008, position by position.

Position PMR RAA / 4000
OVERALL 99.42 -21.81
P 97.78 -2.97
C 109.03 2.88
1B 100.99 1.79
2B 97.43 -8.05
3B 100.64 1.88
SS 99.42 -1.84
LF 97.88 -4.88
CF 99.58 -1.34
RF 99.15 -2.39

Immediately, you can see that the Pirates were not very good. Overall, they lost about two wins merely on defense. They were slightly above average at only first and third base. Surprisingly, the catchers rated very well. (Keep in mind that these stats only account for balls in play. They only measure events such as bunts for catchers. Thus, the sample size is very small, and many aspects of catching are not included.)

The team was well below average at second base. Freddy Sanchez spent the bulk of the season at that position, and was spelled by guys like Luis Rivas and Chris Gomez. Not a good recipe for success. Jack Wilson's extended absences also hurt the team at short, and the outfield was poor across the board.

Now for the individual players with enough playing time to qualify.

Position Player PMR RAA / 4000
P Zach Duke 105.09 8.12
P Paul Maholm 103.69 5.4
P Ian Snell 90.85 -12.04
C Ryan Doumit 116.66 4.6
1B Adam LaRoche 98.85 -2.45
2B Freddy Sanchez 97.35 -8.31
3B Jose Bautista 100.85 2.61
3B Andy LaRoche 100.19 0.55
SS Jack Wilson 102.93 8.6
LF Jason Bay 94.71 -11.58
CF Nate McLouth 97.72 -7.08
RF Xavier Nady 96.07 -10.99

One aspect of the deadline trades that is often overlooked is the fact that the Pirates dealt away two pretty awful defenders. Brandon Moss, Steve Pearce and Nyjer Morgan are not much better as corner outfielders than Bay and Nady were, but the future looks more promising. An outfield down the road of McLouth in left, Andrew McCutchen in center and Jose Tabata in right is appealing.

If the Pirates want to see progress from the pitching staff, an improved defense would be a huge first step. Unfortunately, that is not an easy task.

Tags: MLB, Pirates, Pittsburgh Pirates

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