MVN: Most Valuable Network

Roster decisions and concerns are starting to come up on the radar of this site's readers, and now that the Tigers probably have their 40-man roster close to where it will be for the rest of the regular season it seems appropriate to consider what decisions the Tigers face in the pending offseason. Please understand. I'm not talking about major league roster decisions like finding a capable shortstop or shoring up the bullpen. I'm mostly talking about what minor leaguers they stand to lose if they don't take steps to retain them.

Let's start with the Tigers' current 40-man roster.

Pitchers:

Jeremy Bonderman

Eddie Bonine

Freddy Dolsi

Kyle Farnsworth

Casey Fossum

Armando Galarraga

Gary Glover

Todd Jones

Chris Lambert

Aquilino Lopez

Macay McBride

Zach Miner

Rick Porcello

Clay Rapada

Nate Robertson

Fernando Rodney

Kenny Rogers

Bobby Seay

Virgil Vasquez

Justin Verlander

Dontrelle Willis

Joel Zumaya

Position Players:

Miguel Cabrera

Brent Clevlen

Curtis Granderson

Carlos Guillen

Mike Hessman

Mike Hollimon

Brandon Inge

Matt Joyce

Jeff Larish

Magglio Ordonez

Placido Polanco

Ryan Raburn

Edgar Renteria

Ramon Santiago

Dusty Ryan

Marcus Thames

Clete Thomas

Dane Sardinha

Gary Sheffield

Vance Wilson

First of all, you may notice there are 42 players listed there. That's because Vance Wilson and Jeremy Bonderman are on the 60-day disabled list and therefore do not count as being on the 40-man roster. That's important to keep in mind because it means removing Wilson from next year's roster doesn't free up a spot and a spot does need to be cleared for Bonderman. It's also important should the Tigers decide to add Freddy Garcia to the 40-man because it means somebody will have to go. My money's on Virgil Vasquez.

Okay, those particulars out of the way with the current roster, we can move on to who we think will be removed before it has to be prepared for the Rule 5 draft in December. Of the players listed, I would count the following as good bets to be gone from the 40-man roster once the season is over:

Kyle Farnsworth

Casey Fossum

Gary Glover

Todd Jones

Kenny Rogers

Virgil Vasquez

Dane Sardinha

Vance Wilson

Mike Hessman

Let me explain my reasoning. Kyle Farnsworth, Casey Fossum, Todd Jones, Kenny Rogers and Vance Wilson will all be free agents and I don't really see the Tigers being jazzed about extending any of them an offer to prevent their free agency. Kenny Rogers probably has the best shot of returning if he's interested, but they didn't offer him arbitration last year and I don't expect anything different this year.

Gary Glover is arbitration eligible and if the Tigers go that route to fill one of their bullpen spots, MVN may need to find a new minor league blogger for the Tigers. That leaves us with Virgil Vasquez, Dane Sardinha and Mike Hessman. I just see those guys as the easiest decisions to remove if and when such decisions need to be made. Even if the Tigers want to keep them around, they'll probably clear waivers when the time comes to removed them from the 40-man roster.

There are clearly more people on the 40-man roster who could certainly be taken off during the offseason, but I don't want to stray too far from certainty in this early assumption. That's because it could throw off the rest of this exercise. So let's take a look at who the Tigers might be interested in adding to the 40-man. Thanks to the diligent efforts of Eddie over at Tigers Thoughts, we have a list I feel comfortable is comprehensive for this task. In considering additions, we'll think of seven spots open on the 40-man roster as open. It's not nine (the number listed above) because Vance Wilson doesn't count and Jeremy Bonderman will need to be added back at some point.

Guys in the minor league ranks who will or could become free agents include:

Yorman Bazardo

Francis Beltran

Francisco Cruceta

Scot Drucker

Freddy Garcia

Jeremy Johnson

Josh Kite

Blaine Neal

Ian Ostlund

Max St. Pierre

Erick Almonte

Caonabo Cosme

Kody Kirkland

Derek Wathan

Pedro Cotto

Freddy Guzman

Timo Perez

To be frank, Freddy Garcia is the complete universe of players on this list I see the Tigers being concerned with adding to their 40-man roster. Even he could easily be removed by the time Rule 5 preparations must be made if he or the Tigers decide he should be allowed to explore free agency. So on our 40-man roster tally sheet, we will consider Freddy Garcia as taking up one of our seven open spots.

From there, we'll move on to players in the system who will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft. These are players who signed their first contract at 19 or older four years prior to the Rule 5 draft or signed their first contract at 18 or younger five years prior to the Rule 5 draft (simple, right?). Again, this list of players is what was provided by Eddie and was looked over by people who are similarly meticulous about knowing who's eligible for the Rule 5 draft so I trust it. The players are:

Luis Arlet, OF

Dario Carvajal, P

Kelvin Cedano, P

Danny Christensen, P

Sandy De La Cruz, P

Santo De Leon, 3B

Brent Dlugach, SS

Alfredo Figaro, P

P.J. Finigan, P

Angel Flores, C

Jeff Frazier, OF

Luke French, P

Ramon Garcia, P

Wil Garcia, P

Luis Gil, P

Andrew Graham, C

Gabriel Herrera, P

Justin Justice, OF

Jeramy Laster, OF

Max Leon, IF

Luis Marte, P

Cory Middleton, OF

Santo Mieses, P

Guillermo Moscoso, P

Louis Ott, IF

Orlando Perdomo, P

Kyle Pearson, P

Josh Rainwater, P

Carlos Ramirez, IF

Wilkin Ramirez, OF

Will Rhymes, 2B

Ryan Roberson, 1B

Matt Rusch, P

Jay Sborz, P

Zach Simons, P

James Skelton, C

Jordan Tata, P

Brandon Timm, OF

Casper Wells, OF

Brendan Wise, P

Danny Zell, P

If you remember from above, there are six spots I'm assuming will be open. If when we're finished perusing this list we think we need more, more room could be cleared without too much trouble. For example, Edgar Renteria may very well not be on the 40-man roster when the Rule 5 is taking place. I wouldn't be terribly surprised if he was joined in removal by Ramon Santiago and Aquilino Lopez, who are both arbitration eligible and fairly easily replaceable.

But before we take a hatchet to the 40-man, let's consider how many spots might be needed. A very preliminary first pass through the list gives me 13 players for whom the thought of losing gives even the slightest pause. They are:

Danny Christensen, P

Brent Dlugach, SS

Alfredo Figaro, P

Luke French, P

Luis Marte, P

Guillermo Moscoso, P

Wilkin Ramirez, OF

Will Rhymes, 2B

Ryan Roberson, 1B

Jay Sborz, P

Zach Simons, P

James Skelton, C

Casper Wells, OF

Before you call me a crazy optimist for casting such a wide net, remember this is just the (very generous) first cut. If the Tigers truly only have six spots open for additions, I see them adding Alfredo Figaro, Luis Marte, Guillermo Moscoso, Wilkin Ramirez, Zach Simons and James Skelton. If more spots are open, I could see them protecting a couple of the guys listed who are higher up on the organizational ladder. However, I wouldn't shed any tears over any of the other players being lost and I wouldn't trim Eddie Bonine or Chris Lambert from the 40-man to make room for any of the remaining players.

For that reason, I won't speculate on who else might be added because those open roster spots would likely go to players expected to contribute in 2009 (free agents, trade acquisitions or their own Rule 5 pick) anyway. Having completed this exercise, I feel reasonably comfortable of two things. First, the Tigers won't be hurt this year by the Rule 5 draft. Also, the Tigers can pretty easily clear roster room if they want to make a couple of savvy roster additions in the offseason. If you had fears otherwise on either of these topics, I hope they have been capably assuaged.

Fire away with comments, corrections or points to be considered.