Miami Picks and Preview
My co-writer Nate just looked at the possible usurper to Roger Federer’s crown and found it hard to crown anyone but Novak Djokovic. A usurper is one who illegally seizes the crown of another and there’s nothing illegal in this case, it just seems that way because some of us might prefer the passionate Rafael Nadal or the promising Jo-Wilfried Tsonga to the sturdy but unspectacular Djokovic.
Djokovic will take one step closer to the kingdom if he sweeps the Indian Wells-Miami twofecta. That used to be Federer’s bailiwick – Federer swept these two tournaments in 2005 and 2006. Can Djokovic do it? Fatigue has been an issue for him and he seldom does well at consecutive Masters Series events with the exception of these two events last year: he reached the final at Indian Wells and took the title at Miami. However, he faced exactly one top ten player in each tournament and it was the same guy – Nadal.
I saw Nadal fend of three sets of howitzers from both Tsonga and James Blake at Indian Wells last week and I marveled at it until I saw him play Djokovic in the next match. Nadal’s racket was so slow by that point that he couldn’t handle Djokovic’s topspin shots and Djokovic is not known for topspin. Nadal had picked off two very troublesome players for Djokovic and paid for it.
This week, the rest of the field could well hand Djokovic the same gift by picking off those troublesome players before they get to him.
Federer’s Quarter
What about Federer? By the time he got to Mardy Fish last week he had nothing. All respect to Fish but Federer was out to lunch. It was probably a combination of two things: mononucleosis and discombobulation from the effects of mono. He reached the semifinals at the Australian Open and Indian Wells then suffered straight set losses presumably because he ran out of energy. Meanwhile, illness throws off your rhythm and feel. Sometimes he looks good and sometimes he doesn’t. I, for one, do not expect ever to see the Federer I saw before, at least not on a consistent basis.
Even if he fully recovers from mono, his psychological advantage is dissipating by the week and the rhythm in his game is way out of kilter. He may recover his rhythm and, if someone else besides Djokovic doesn’t come along in the next few years, the two of them will share some non-French Open slam wins, but I’m going to have to look elsewhere to see someone reach down and shift into a second and third gear in the middle of the second set and I miss that already.
The matchup everyone wants to see is Federer vs. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. As much as I’d love to see Tsonga win a tournament one of these days, he’d have to get past Andy Roddick to do it and Miami is a lot faster than Indian Wells and that’s a good thing for Andy. It’s a good thing for Jo-Willy too but I haven’t seen enough consistency from him yet to put him in the quarterfinals.
Federer could face Robin Soderling in the third round and the pesty Lleyton Hewitt in the fourth round but he looks pretty good in the early rounds and, of course, he’d love to meet up with Roddick and get his twelfth straight win over him.
Davydenko’s Quarter
Davydenko has never made it past the fourth round in Miami. Trust the little bugger to throw everything into chaos by getting out of this quarter but it’s doubtful because Mario Ancic, Andy Murray, Mardy Fish and David Ferrer are here too.
Ancic just recovered from mono himself and we could have some fun if Federer met up with him in the semis – mono a mono as Pat Davis puts it – and I can’t wait for Ancic to get to full strength because he tore up the tour in 2006. He plays well on all surfaces. He has an exceptional record indoors and a good record outdoors with a similar winning percentage on both clay and hard court. He’s not quite there yet, though, and Murray beat him indoors in Marseilles this year.
I don’t think Fish can continue the magic and as for David Ferrer, what is up with him? Anyone have a clue? Hyung-Taik Lee took him out in Indian Wells last week. If Murray gets past Ancic, he should be in the semis.
Nadal’s Quarter
Nadal could have faced Tommy Haas in the third round but Haas pulled out. He’s probably still suffering from the sinus infection that scratched him from his quarterfinal match with Federer last week. Poor guy, Haas is jinxed. My sympathy is tempered, though. He’s had three shoulder surgeries yet he hasn’t changed his service motion which is an over the top motion that strains the shoulder. If you keep doing the same thing and expect a different result, Einstein has a word for you: insanity.
James Blake and David Nalbandian lurk in the upper part of this quarter. Nalbandian might have to get past Radek Stapanek but I’m assuming Nalbandian won’t lose the second set to him 6-0 before waking up as he did in Indian Wells. Stepanek wins with smoke and mirrors and a bit of gamesmanship thrown in and Nalbandian should not be fooled twice.
I’m gonna take Blake over Nalbandian because Blake beat him on the indoor slick courts at the year end championships two years ago. While Miami is hardly slick, Blake looked pretty good on the rather slow courts in Indian Wells last week. That sets up another Nadal-Blake showdown.
With Haas out, Nadal should be well rested and should be able to shoot Blake down again because Blake seems to become satisfied when he reaches a quarterfinal. He doesn’t scratch and crawl to win matches and he doesn’t scratch and crawl to win tournaments. He does as well as he can and leaves it at that. Nadal does whatever it takes until he just can’t move any more.
Djokovic’s Quarter
Neither Tomas Berdych or Richard Gasquet has ever won more than two matches here. Evidently this is not their favorite tournament. Gasquet could win a few more matches this time but I don’t see him beating Djokovic.
Picks
There you have it. Everyone picks off the tough players, Murray beats Federer in one semifinal, Djokovic beats Nadal in the other and, yes, Djokovic sweeps. Get used to it.
Extra points if you can pick out the player outside the top twenty who gets to the quarterfinals because, for sure, there will be at least one. Who will it be?
This entry was posted
on Wednesday, March 26th, 2008 at 10:53 pm and is filed under Tommy Haas, James Blake, David Nalbandian, Andy Murray, Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Robin Soderling, Mardy Fish, Tomas Berdych, Radek Stepanek, Andy Roddick, Nikolay Davydenko, ATP Players, Body Mechanics, AMS Miami, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Richard Gasquet, David Ferrer, Novak Djokovic, ATP Tournaments.
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60 Responses to “Miami Picks and Preview”
March 27th, 2008 at 2:53 am
I can’t understand for the life of me why would anyone call Djoko’s game “unspectacular”, I just don’t get it. The guy’s a delight to watch. Other than less-then stellar volleys and sometimes a dropshot overdose, he has a clean, proactive, intelligent, resilient, surprising game. A great versatile forehand (he can hit it flat, loopy, spinny, even with that funny defensive slice on the stretch), the best 2-hander in the game, top-notch serve, return, a quick tactical mind. I really don’t know what more you want to see, Nina Rota. So, Nadal’s relentless moonballing is somehow spectacular, but Djoko’s not? As for the promising Tsonga, in their only encounter Djoko hit more winners and won more points at the net than him. Nothing against Tsonga, I’d be happy to see him in the Top 10 (Nadal’s another matter, I never want to see his hideous game at the top spot, ever), but his game’s too flawed - big serve, big forehand is a very old recipe, and one that gets figured out sooner rather than later.
As for Ferrer, there’s nothing wrong with him, imo, he’s just returning to his true level after catching a wind in the second half of the 07. Happens often enough.
Excuse me my tirade. It’s just that constant putting down of Djoko that really gets my goat.(”he doesn’t have any big weapons” is another pet peeve of mine - don’t you guys see that every one of his shots is a weapon? Gah). A great article all the same.
March 27th, 2008 at 3:31 am
Tanya, you must be the one of the few people who actually LOOK at who’s on the other side of the net when Nadal is playing! Unconventional style or not, he is absolutely scintilating and mesmorising out there, the only gladiator in the arena.
On the Miami draw, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if young Djokovic came a cropper after his Indian Wells high. My hunch is he won’t make the semis.
March 27th, 2008 at 4:45 am
Charleston, i so agre with you.
I love watching Rafael Nadal play, I was losing interest in tennis until Nadal exploded on the scene.. Djokovic plays a good game, but I would rather watch the person across the net from Djokovic.
Nadal played 2 excellent matches in IW. Haas has pulled out,so it remains to be seen who wins in the SF, Djokovic or Nadal.
March 27th, 2008 at 5:08 am
Federer to the finals is sure thing. This draw is just what doctor ordered - tougher opponents than at PLO. He has them all figured out, and apart from initial surge caused by idea that Fed is in a slump, I dont see anyone with enough game to gun him down. He is motivated as hell (for obvious reasons), and I get the feeling that the reasons for Fish result are more down to Fed than Mardy.
Every tournament has its surprise, and I’ll pick Super Mario on this one. Guy is due, and there is no one he cant handle. Murray you say? Overrated - simply don’t see the base for argument that he’s “intelligent” player. Fish, Ferrer, Davy you say? Not here and not anywhere soon.
Agree totally on Nadal.
And finally - You guys guys better get used to Djokos game, cause its there and it ain’t gonna go away. I get the feeling that the main reason some people label his game “unspectacular” is because he lacs that “dancing” style Fed got us used to. Well, guess what, Djoko showed that you don’t have to be “dancing” to win. You just have to be big enough in ALL of the apartments. It’s the new generation tennis. Simple as that.
charleston.b just might be right, though. Djoko is thinking bigger than KB. He is thinking gold, and that might be he’s undoing.
March 27th, 2008 at 6:00 am
You give us more to think about Nina. In all honesty, I can’t see beyond Djokovic at the moment, he does have the big game, I agree with Tanya on that one. In many ways I think it all boils down to who you warm to. I’ve always been a Fed fan because he too had [has] the game, I like him also. I have an older friend [who even remembers seeing Laver play], but still prefers to watch Nadal. She loves his raw energy and passion and sees a beauty in it. She will always say Federer is overall the better player [other than clay] , but finds him boring, doesn’t warm to him and sometimes chooses not to watch his matches, I don’t understand it either, but there you go. Nadal’s personality has grown on me a lot, and I can now see where my friend is coming from. Infact there were many knowlegeable fans rooting for Rafael at Wimbledon last year, is it because he’s a better than Federer on grass, of course not, they were rooting for the man. Many found Borg and Sampras boring too, but you could hardly criticise their game.
Re David Ferrer, my rainbow warrior. I know he doesn’t have the power or big serve, although when he gets that first serve in, it’s pretty accurate, I’ve observed nice deft touches too and good groundstrokes, plus speed and returns. I’ve heard some put him down and dismiss his game and that peevs me too. I’m not making excuses for his disappointing form thus far, he did suffer injury early on but should be well over it. Imo, David seems to do rather better coming from behind in the rankings. He seems to be more comfortable sneaking through unnoticed. I’m sure he’s chuffed with his current spot, he deserves it. I’m not so sure about the spotlight that comes with it though. His demonic performance on court masks his naturally unassuming sensitive persona, a little like Davydenko, although I would hardly call Nikolay demonic! Confidence has always been a factor with David, a real Jekyll & Hyde, so more of the Mr Hyde please Ferru!
All in all, I still think Miami is wide open.
March 27th, 2008 at 6:55 am
I cannot see Djokovic winning this tournament. It’s true he is a solid machine like player when fit, but theres no way he is going to be 100% going into this. I tipped him up for the last tournament on my site but I have not done so here. He’ll suffer a massive ‘upset’ a couple of rounds in when nobody takes into account his physical condition. I fancy Fernando Gonzalez to beat him and advance into the latter stages. As for Federer I have a hunch we may see the same sort of performance as last week - cruise through early rounds and then get beaten convincingly. Have a look out for Kohlschrieber in this tournament.
March 27th, 2008 at 7:05 am
Nadal is an OK player. All he has is clay and on any other surface he has no skills, as we have seen he struggles on anything other then clay, typical Spaniard.
It is Novak “AintNo” Djokovic’s time and he will easily beat Nadal again to go to the Finals.
As for Federer, who knows what to expect now. I hope he makes it to the finals for once this yr so that Novak “AintNo” Djokovic can beat him again to prove to the nay sayers that he trully is the best right now.
March 27th, 2008 at 7:30 am
I agree with Tanya - Djokovic’s game is pretty spectacular from where I am watching! Maybe you have rose-colored (swiss-colored?) glasses on NR? What’s with the site? The previous article on “pretenders” was trying to find someone other than Djokovic because so many people “hate” him! And now you call his game “unspectacular” - a little bias going on here or something? If you call yourself a sports journalist, try to be a little more objective.
Begin by rewatching the Djokovic vs. Tsonga AO final; at times Djokovic had a pretty low 1st serve % but Tsonga still couldn’t get past him; in fact, Tsonga’s taking of that first set was a tiny bit lucky don’t you think? (Recall that he hit that fabulous shot to the corner - but who’d've thunk it? Surely the gods were smiling just a little).
Anyhow, the Djoker is the one to watch - enjoyably so - in my books.
March 27th, 2008 at 8:31 am
The article is blatantly biased. Federer is back on track. He will hoist the shield in Miami. He is the Miami Master!!!
March 27th, 2008 at 8:33 am
Federer is the Miami Master, having won the tournament in 2005 and 2006 and he will hld the trophy this year–No doubt!!
March 27th, 2008 at 8:45 am
Mjusa, I respect you’re not into the Spanish style. However, I would hardly call Feliciano Lopez a typical claycourter, he’s the most ‘un-Spanish’ player I’ve seen, great serve/volley and net skill, Fernando Verdasco isn’t a typical claycourter either. I always thought Nadal’s first final at Wimby in 2006 was a fluke and an easy draw, last year was no fluke, he reached the final fair and square and you don’t get that far without talent.
March 27th, 2008 at 9:57 am
A player outside the top 20 to reach the semis? A good challenge, that.
I think quarters 2 and 4 are the most likely loci for such an occurrence. I think the 10-20 seeds in the second quarter are too strong — Murray and Youzhny — so I will settle on the fourth quarter and pick the one and only Radek Stepanek. Although how I would love it to be Fabrice.
March 27th, 2008 at 10:41 am
Wow, thanks everyone for tuning in. This is a great discussion! Nolo could well crash out in Miami but when I saw him taking in the Lakers game Sunday night he looked pretty chipper to me. Maybe that’s because he was driven up from Indian Wells (or flown?) while I had to drive myself in bumper to bumper traffic back to LA. (Nolo’s countryman Vlad Radmanovic plays for the Lakers who almost came back from a 26 point deficit to win the game, almost).
Joel, you bring up a very good subject which is something that has been in the news lately - journalistic bias. This week in the New Yorker there was another “death of the newspaper” article. New media - online media - appears to be killing newspapers for many reasons. One of them is that online commentary doesn’t pretend that journalism is objective because it’s not.
For instance, when the New York Times showed images of all 4000 U.S. casualties in Iraq in its paper last week, was that journalism or an obvious show of disdain for the war? And in today’s paper when the Times wrote a piece comparing Deval Patrick, the black governor of Massachusetts, to Barack Obama - Patrick is presented as a gifted orator but an ineffective legislator - wasn’t that a very thinly veiled slap at Obama?
“New” media is popular, in part, because blogs creates community and people like to join in and express their opinion. They are no longer passive readers. The blogger is just another member of the community expressing their presumably well-informed opinion.
If I’m not well-informed or I’m out of step and I can’t justify my position, that’s a problem. But if I can get people involved in the discussion by presenting something interesting to think about and they can be informed by me and I can be influenced by them, then I think I’ve done my job.
Having said that, we have been ragging on Nolo and it’s not his fault. It’s tough for someone having to follow a legend - Roddick suffers at the hands of Pete Sampras for instance. And both Sampras and Federer played transcendent tennis on occasion. However, Nolo is a tough dude and I think he’s up to the task and what usually happens in these situations is that we’re slow to warm up to someone but if they repeatedly come through, we come to love them.
March 27th, 2008 at 10:45 am
For the record, I don’t consider myself one of the Djokovic haters. I was rooting for him over Federer in Australia, and will be rooting for him in general against Federer at least for the time being. But reading comments on this and other tennis sites, it’s clear to me a lot of people aren’t big on his game. That was the point of the “Pretenders” post.
For a more objective analysis of his game, an earlier post:
http://mvn.com/tennis/2008/02/01/the-once-and-future-king/
March 27th, 2008 at 11:03 am
Am rooting for a Federer rout as well, despite the odds being stacked against him. The Djoker is a chump, and yes, this is partisan bashing, but I can’t see him having the gravitas to sustain this level of tennis beyond a few flashy weeks. And Murray, sigh, what a terrible state tennis will be in if he wins this tournament. I know that dourness is all the rage with his team, but seriously, he does need a haircut and a better personality. Clearly, I’m focused more here on non-tennis intangibles!! Seriously, Miami might be a wide-open field in many ways, and if Federer doesn’t win it, I wager someone from the wild side will win! Speaking up, can someone please tell me why Marat Safin is battling it out with #900 and whatever Bobby Reynolds?? He would have been the perfect foil to Mr. Fed.
March 27th, 2008 at 11:23 am
Sakhi, what’s with the hair thing :0) In my youth, I never trusted anyone who didn’t have long hair. Admittedly I’m not wild about wild hair and the basketball shorts that look like skirts seems silly to me but that’s individual style. I like the Spanish longhairs.
By the way, when are we playing tennis?
Safin, omigod he’s down to number 90. Poor guy couldn’t even get up the mountain he wanted to climb last year. I think he needs to set a few smaller goals for the meantime and aim for that.
mjusa - we now have an official nickname: “AintNo” Djokovic” And while we’re at it, just a quick throw out - who plays Nadal, Federer and Djokovic in the movie?
Here’s where we are for over-20-ranked darkhorses that get to the Miami quarters: Mark has Kohlschreiber though I think he might make a bigger breakout on clay; smox has SuperMario and that’s hard to disagree with though it’s not a breakout as much as a comeback; Ed T has Stepanek. I’m tempted to go with Mathieu.
Anyone else?
March 27th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
Nate said:
For the record, I don’t consider myself one of the Djokovic haters. I was rooting for him over Federer in Australia, and will be rooting for him in general against Federer at least for the time being. But reading comments on this and other tennis sites, it’s clear to me a lot of people aren’t big on his game. That was the point of the “Pretenders” post.
……..
Ok, fair enough, but for the sake of argument, lets scrape out the fact that Djokovic is the leading pretender to Fed’s crown. Or in another words - lets try to compare top players games in terms of “beauty”, “spectacular” or “attractive”. Or even in another words, lets simply try to delete Fed’s fans (who are the most numerous on forums and blogs) natural resentment over their fave’s opposition. Or jet in another words, lets try to be objective on above mentioned merits. (hope I’m clear on this). Would you think that “a lot of people would not be big on his game”?
I would think not. And that does not mean that “a lot of people” would find his game more “spectacular” than Feds. Hell, I don’t, and I’m a Djoko supporter. After all, Fed has put some high standards out there. But, he is not the only one playing the game.
March 27th, 2008 at 12:32 pm
btw, the same point I tried to make above stands to personality issues as well.
March 27th, 2008 at 1:24 pm
I’ll go for a fit Fed and for the fun of it a fully focused David Nalbandian.
March 27th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Nina, I think the “hair thing” is not that we want Murray to have shorter hair, he looks better with it longer anyway, but it looks so unkempt, that’s all. He should take lessons from the Spaniards, they have great hair.
Well, no fish fry this week, Mardy’s already lost in two rather meek sets to Clement. What’s with these guys that they have a phobia almost about repeating themselves? Geez. So picking the Fourth Man to get to the semis is really tough.
These were my quarters when Fish was still alive:
Federer-Roddick
Murray-Fish (make that Davydenko now)
Gasquet-Djoko
Blake-Nadal
OK, I’m going to throw in Canas, it’s about time for him to make a noise or two, hopefully he’ll remember the fun he had here last year. He’s my official Wild and Crazy pick.
March 27th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
I wouldn’t disagree on Canas, Pat - forgot about him. I would imagine the Spanish hotties go to the stylist and Murray goes off to the barber LOL
March 27th, 2008 at 2:58 pm
NR - you’ll notice that when I made the journalism comment I said “a little more objective,” not that you need to (or even could) become “completely” objective. (I’ve always found the NY Times to be anti-Hillary - go figure.)
But it does seem to be almost blatantly biased to call Djokovic’s game - and let’s not forget that he is arguably the best hardcourt player in the world at the mo - “unspectacular”. I just don’t get it and I’ve been following tennis for about 30 odd years.
Many of the “Djokovic-haters” are simple “Federer-fanatics” (not fans because that’s less zealous); others say he’s too “arrogant”. Whatever. His game rocks and he should be given credit now; I don’t see why “warm up” to him. That the dominance of Roger & Rafa is now being challenge by a young gun who is completely unafraid is, put simply, a breath of fresh air. After all, Borg & Mac also had Connors, and Sampras had Agassi but also Edberg. The more the merrier.
March 27th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
Joel, I’ve been at this about thirty years too, and I feel the same as Nina about Djoko. Really, it’s not his personality for me so much as just his style of play. It is unspectacular, although I would put it this way instead myself, namely that I haven’t seen anything really out of the ordinary yet from him. He has not distinguished himself enough from all the other big hitting baseline guys. It’s more than just consistency. It’s the variety, or lack thereof, that he employs. That’s just a personal thing though. I happen to love flamethrowers, and serve and volleyers, people in general who have interesting games to watch with a lot of variety. Djoko just isn’t there yet, and I am not sure if I can even add a “yet” to that, but let’s say for now we can. I think he’s good for the mix at the top, but I don’t know that he will be a perpetual Number One for several years at a time.
March 27th, 2008 at 5:32 pm
Joel - I guess I went a bit overboard on my answer, huh? Yes, I am having a hangover from Fed, it is true. But you know, someone like Tsonga is someone that grows on you more quickly than Djokovic. That’s true for Baghdatis too. There’s a joy in their game that’s easy to warm too. Not that Fed is all warm and fuzzy, he’s not, it’s his game that’s appealing.
Nolo is a bit offputting in the way that someone is when they are overtly confident, it’s a bit in your face and initially you are back on your heels a bit. After a while, when he delivers, then you appreciate it more.
I’m not sold on Canas, he has a poor record at Miami. This is beginning to get exciting.
March 27th, 2008 at 6:16 pm
hi nina
i must mention that i`m totally disagree with what you said about the court speed:
miami is played on a medium-slow,high bouncing laykold cushion surface(the same surface at last week`s bmw challenger in sunrise[won by haase]),and they use the heavier penn atp balls(the same as in indian wells).although the surface is similar to that in indian wells,the overall conditions in miami are vastly different.serving is often made more difficult by the wind and the venue being open to the wind and by the high humidity.
in i.w. because the humidity was low the balls traveled through the air much more quicker than in miami.
so overall i should say miami is even slower than indian wells.
March 27th, 2008 at 8:40 pm
NR - Yeah, Baggy is warm, personality-wise and his game, when on, can be a beaut. But that’s just it. Where has it got him? He never seems to win the big matches, and Tsonga may have the same problem. Too soon to tell on that one. Tsonga’s a little bit overbearing on the court, though, urging everyone to cheer for him and jumping up and down. It was interesting at the AO, because of his fantasy run there, but the act seemed a little tired by IW. He needs to focus more; he hasn’t been able to dig in mentally when he’s needed to in the finals at the AO and the quarters against Rafa.
Patricia, “I haven’t seen anything really out of the ordinary yet from him”
This doesn’t make sense - how does a guy come along and beat the top three guys at a tournament (Montreal 07) and back it up with a US Open final and then win the AO not present to you as anything “out of the ordinary”? Are we watching the same matches!? In Montreal, for instance, did you see those great droppers to draw Fed to the net, and then the lovely lobs that went right over the champs head to sending him running, not gracefully b.t.w., to the back of the court only to miss? Djoker did that TWICE - in tiebreakers no less.
His game is brilliant all around (what can’t he do? He serves great; his returns are remarkable; he’s great off both wings; his down-the-line shots are like threading a needle; he keeps players deep [Tsonga] or draws them in [Fed] depending on the player; he is competent and getting better at net) and on top of all that he’s smart on the court and amazingly focused at important moments in big matches. If this is “ordinary” well then I’m a monkey’s uncle. (And I am not buying the evolution argument in this case.)
March 27th, 2008 at 8:58 pm
That said, I am not sure he’ll win at Miami; it’s tough to get the coastal sweep and Djoko is due for a loss given his steady results so far this year; if he faces a focused Nalbandian I can see a loss there, and maybe even before depending on who he runs into. I can’t see Nadal beating him on hardcourts (unless the aggressive Rafa of Dubai 06 shows up). On the top half I’d like to see Tsonga play Fed and win through; then I’d like to see Murray and Tsonga have a rematch and Murray get some vengeance. Murray is another player I like but he’s got to work on adding a bit more offense to an already nicely varied game. I’d like to see him win the tourney even. But wouldn’t be disappointed if Djoko or Rafa took the hardware home.
March 27th, 2008 at 9:38 pm
Farid - I’m going by number of games played per set, meaning that it’s easier to hold serve on a faster court. I’m using tennisinsight.com’s numbers for Miami: versus their numbers for Indian Wells (2008).
Yeah, I keep hoping for Murray but he doesn’t appear to have the killer gene. He has more of it than Gasquet but nowhere near as much as Djokovic. Murray appears to be experimenting a lot as though he’s got a toy and wants to see what it’ll do. It could be that it’ll just take him a longer time to develop and I do expect him to win some slams but he’s not likely to win as many as Djokovic.
March 27th, 2008 at 9:47 pm
“Murray appears to be experimenting a lot as though he’s got a toy and wants to see what it’ll do.”
Great analogy - seems to fit well.
March 28th, 2008 at 1:07 am
Agree with joel completely - how could anyone see a dropshot/volley lob combo on matchpoint in Montreal and not go “wow”? Or the insane dtl winner to break Fed in the 2nd set of the AO semi? Or 3 aces (the middle one on the 2nd serve) to draw even from 0-40 in the IW final? How is that not awesome? Noone could hit ridiculous winners 24/7 evetry tourney, and it’s unreasonable to expect such a young guy to hit them constantly when his game hasn’t fully developed yet. I watched the Agassi-Fed Miami final (2001 I think) recently, and I highly recommend it to anyone who thinks that Fed was born hitting stiletto-like bh dtl shots. It’s quite amazing how raw and erratic his game was in 2001. The backhand was a riot.
Anyh00, what impresses me the most about Novak, is indeed not the insane winners (though it’s amazing how he can pull them out of his pocket in the most crucial times), but his variety and adaptability. Whoever said that his game is not versatile is being willfully blind, sorry. Look at his forehand - it’s not as penetrating as fed’s or Blake’s, but he can do everything with it - every angle, every spin. Djoko is nothing if not versatile. His can morph his game into anything depending on the opponent and the circumastances - he can grind, retrieve, be an all-out aggressor, counterpunch drawing an error, charge the net (though not very successfully recently, but in this case it’s the intention that counts), hitting wide angles, overpowering his opponent, you name it. Sure he can’t do all that at the equally high level, but that’s how his game is the work in progress. Watching this young man harness his abilities and develop in a champion in his own right was so far a pleasure and an honor.
March 28th, 2008 at 1:17 am
Oh, and I also agree that Djoko won’t win Miami. Nor do I want him to - going on such a mad tear at such a young age won’t be good for his future prospects, I think. A loss there will bring him down to Earth. Or I’m just jaded from following Safin for so long.
As for a below 20-ranked player in the quarters - my bet would be Ancic.
March 28th, 2008 at 6:12 am
Joel and Tanya, I’m with you on this. Novak is from my country so I can be called biased or whatever, and it would not be far from the truth. But that does not mean I can not try to distance my self from that fact and look at his game purely game-wise. He does not have that versatile swings from wrist, cat-like movement and statuesque backhand that Fed has, or even spring looking serve; but what he does have and Fed lacs is more power of both wings (partly due to effort to ever come Fed and alike). Remember Fed - Safin at AO, he was hitting those forehands IO winers jumping like a rabbit (cute one), using every muscle of his body. Novak doesn’t have to do that. And backhand… really, nothing to be said here. As for point construction and shot versatility, you guys said enough. The point is, Patricia and Nina, that nobody is forcing you to like his personality (I’m not the biggest of fans too, although I think it is good for the game and all that marketing stuff), but not paying proper respect to his game, and putting him in the same line with - take a pick - is plain ridiculous and goes beyond of what you (rightly) said about blogosphere freedom of opinion. If for nothing else, than for the results. Don’t tell me that those are accidental or some kind of aberration that will go away once “proper” order is restored.
March 28th, 2008 at 10:31 am
This Anderson guy - won got to the finals in Vegas this year - has quite the serve. Djokovic isn’t able to crack it as of yet and the kid is serving at 83% first serves. Good stuff. Djoker better take care of his own serve if he wants to survive the 1st round.
March 28th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
mjusa,
Nadal has nothing but clay? I’ve heard this argument bandied about a number of times but never by writers who really try to be unbiased.
Take away all of Nadal’s ranking points from matches played on clay in 2006 or 2007 and he would still be in the top 10. (Right now he is ranked 2 in the 2008 race, all from hardcourt tournaments)
And did you follow Wimbledon ‘07? His run to the final was nothing if not challenging. And throughout the final he was neck-and-neck with the king of grass. Did you watch that match? They were both exhibiting top-caliber grass-court play throughout the five sets. Too bad about Nadal’s injury during the fourth set - if it weren’t for that surely the fifth would have been contested even more closely - and who knows who would have won? I’d like you to name one, two or three other players who have exhibited this level of play on grass against Federer for five straight sets — and if you can manage that I’d like you to also write about them that they have nothing on grass.
As for hardcourt, it’s true that Nadal rarely wins a tournament on this surface. He did win at least one, though, every year, and he makes it more and more often into QF or SF… not something you can say about every top 10 player.
I’ve been wondering why some people make this sort of blanket statements about Nadal and clay. Perhaps - for some of them - because they’re peeved that he’s beaten Federer on so many important occasions, including some on clay…
In conclusion, mjusa, if you want to be respected by readers who do not necessarily agree with you, try to write based on facts and try to be more or less unbiased.
March 28th, 2008 at 12:22 pm
What do you know?
Some of you were right about the possibility of Djokovic being beaten before going deep into this tournament …
Kevin Anderson has just played himself into some notoriety.
March 28th, 2008 at 12:26 pm
Regarding my first post (the longer) one, when I wrote ‘including on clay’ I meant to write ‘including on hardcourt’.
(And Nadal taking the Wimbledon title last summer almost happened.)
March 28th, 2008 at 2:08 pm
Djoko loses…I tipped it up on my blog.. People forget although his playing standard and mentality are at levels way above his years, his body is still that of a skinny 20 year old and does not allow him to play at the level he can week after week without enough rest…
March 28th, 2008 at 3:07 pm
Well…he was due for a loss, let down, so in the big picture it’s okay; in terms of points it’s a knock for Djoko, but he’ll maybe pick them up on clay. He doesn’t need to rush for no.1 or 2. He’s got plenty of time.
So who’ll win it now? Murray? Roddick? Rafa? … Fed? Djoko’s loss may just inspire the Swiss.
Gasquet is also out first round.
March 28th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Kevin Anderson??? Well, I saw his matches in Vegas and was impressed by his win over Ginepri. I liked his chances against Sam in the final, but then he lost, so I thought he’d drop out of the limelight a bit like guys tend to do when they break through. Relapses seem inevitable. So suddenly he’s baaacckkkk!
Did anyone actually see their match today? Djoko talked about how he wasn’t moving well to the returns of serve, so I wondered if he was having trouble deciphering Anderson’s big serve and guessing where he’d put it or whether the movement thing really reflected fatigue.
Mark, do you really think Djoko’s body needs that much rest? I thought 20-year-olds ran forever(!) Fish mentioned after he lost about keeping it going mentally, so maybe that was more of Novak’s problem. This 60plus body needs to believe that 20 year olds have it really good(!)
Gasquet went out also, in three sets to the Terse One. When I saw that match-up I thought, “hhmmm, could that be trouble? Nah, Gasket will get by him.” Famous last words haha
Well, they haven’t even started the TV coverage and already I feel like Miami is going to make us all look like blithering idiots. You thought IW was wild and crazy, just wait.
March 28th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
Rafa should’ve (and could’ve) won Wimbie last year; there’s no doubt he can play on more than clay.
March 28th, 2008 at 3:16 pm
Wow, and Gasquet lost too, to Tursunov. I think players really do not like consecutive Masters Series events. I picked Djokovic to last through both tournaments because he did so well in them last year but, then, he wore himself out at the end of last year and he had problems with getting tired earlier this year.
I would not like to be a gambler right about now and I’m betting that the ATP Fantasy Tennis game will be pretty up and down too.
It’s hard to know about Anderson. He certainly has more game than John Isner but I didn’t see him get around the court any better than Querrey who’s a bit underappreciated from the baseline. He’s got Andreev next who must think Gasquet is the entire tour at this point: he’s already played him three times this year beating him once.
I’m close to getting really really frustrated with Gasquet.
March 28th, 2008 at 3:44 pm
Nina, are you really getting frustrated with Gasquet? lol I’m really frustrated with his twin Head Case, Berdych, but he just rolled over Querrey today very easily.
Suddenly, my Wild Pick of Canas looks good in that corner, that was Djoko’s corner and Canas could have a good shot there now.
March 28th, 2008 at 4:08 pm
Guess-quet you mean? Who knows what’s going on with him. Your guess is as good as mine. I see Nalbandian went on walkabout again in the first set against Malisse; no telling if he’ll be back or not. Maybe he’s racing cares in that mind of his.
Djoker? Probably just tired. Didn’t see it but the Anderson serve seemed the thing. And Djoker’s serve wasn’t doing it for him today. But PD’s gotta be right that it’s somewhat mental too - lots of wins and pressure. This will allow him a breather, might be a good thing who knows.
NR - I’d hold onto my cash through the 08 season - it’s a mad one.
PD - yep, your man Canas may go deep there.
March 28th, 2008 at 4:28 pm
Whatever’s going on in Miami?! Apart from the high profile losses, Ljubicic taken out by Santoro, Nalby about to go back to the Argentinian lakes or his rally cars. I’m completely confused now. Well, I suppose Canas and Nadal still there. Any thoughts on the overall winner? LOL
March 28th, 2008 at 4:37 pm
Anyone see the Nalby match? I know Malisse is a quality player, but how did Nalby lose it?
March 28th, 2008 at 5:09 pm
Canas is actually ranked higher than his possible next opponent Gonzalez and he beat him in their only match. Of course, that was in 2002.
No footage, legal or otherwise, in the U.S. till Saturday. I assume the Euro stataions will be using Fox’s feed which means they’re in the same boat. Can’t somebody just put a 24/7 webcam on each court for heaven’s sake?
I did notice that Nalbandian got less than 50% of his first serves in for the match while Malisse got over 70% in. That goes a long way to explaining it. Still, Nalbandian must have been half asleep to love to Malisse. The chaotic nature of the draw at the moment seems to be affecting everyone. When things get chaotic, that means there’s more opportunity but also more pressure. If the same person wins week in and week out, players have a built in excuse.
March 28th, 2008 at 5:15 pm
We’re not getting anything till Sunday, then it’s all systems go. Thanks for the response Nina.
March 28th, 2008 at 5:41 pm
Jenny, if there’s any god in this world, Nalby will drive off in his racing car into an Argentine lake! lol Maybe the chilly waters will revive him.
Boy what is with the guys? I am having a secret theory here that Federer’s sudden shakiness has traumatized them all, oddly enough. Does this seem logical to you guys that this could happen? Are they taking his losses to heart too? The way the knights of Arthurian legend would mourn the death of a king. It has that ring about it. Maybe psychologists have a term for this.
Maybe I should go join David in that lake haha
March 28th, 2008 at 7:09 pm
If we consider who lost early (surprisingly, that is) -
Fish (round 1)
Djokovic (round 2 bye)
Nalbandian (round 2 bye)
Gasquet (round 2 bye)
- all of these guys did great at IW (semis or better), except for Gasquet (not sure what’s up with him), but as for the rest of them, maybe they were tired.
Look at IW as another example - Roddick & Lopez, who contested the final at Dubai, both lost in the 1st round at IW.
This has been said before, but it seems like the players need a little more of an “off season”. Or maybe it’s the “let-down” of coming off a big win, or a few big wins, in a row.
Anyhow, will be interesting to see what upsets the tournament still may produce.
March 28th, 2008 at 7:21 pm
How funny Pat, I was thinking the same thing, the Fed trauma and the ripples. I began to think the same last week when Rafa lost only to be followed by Fed. Those two seem to fire each other up. Don’t get me wrong, change is good for tennis but are we and the players ready for it! btw, I heard there’s a rally event in Cordoba this weekend, I think you should go there armed with a big slap, and another two for Nate and me!
March 28th, 2008 at 9:37 pm
Djokovic was up 2-0 in the third set and serving when the chair umpire gave him a warning for taking too much time - bouncing the ball too much. He won the next point then lost 13 in a row. He unraveled. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen him get a time code warning before, has anyone else? Maybe it threw him off.
March 28th, 2008 at 10:37 pm
NR (not Nino - right? Did you also compose the music for the Godfather?)
He got a warning against Federer in the semi of the AO this year; it was on an important point (deuce I think) and Djokovic was serving, but he won that point and the game. Didn’t unravel.
He also got a warning at IW last week - against Wawrinka and this time it was on a break point I believe. Anyhow, that time he pulled through too.
From what I’ve read, the crowd was booing Djokovic when he made the subsequent, post-warning point today in Miami, and then they cheered when he missed the next point.
It sounds like he got out of rhythm and lost his focus. And because it was a tight, “first” round match against an unknown, it made it all the more costly. I suspect if it were a bigger match further into the tournament, Djoko would’ve been able to regroup as he has in big matches in the past.
Credit to him for never blaming umpires for doing their jobs and calling him fairly on time violations; the only complaint I’ve read was that he wishes they would pre-warn him - say, in the previous change-over, tell him he’s taking too long, and then if he goes over again, give him the official warning - seems fair enough I guess.
But like I said before, I think he was a bit burnt out (he said he was slow on the court) coupled with the fact that Anderson played well too.
It’ll be interesting to see how Djoko does on clay this year. He won Estorial and got to the semis of RG in 07, but everything else was Qs or less I think.
Any calls on Fed-Monfils or Murray-Ancic, people?
March 29th, 2008 at 2:38 am
Patricia, yes I do think Djoko’s body needs a fair amount of rest after winning a tournament.
The conditioning of a 20 year old is far different from say a 26 year old who is in physical prime and his muscles and joints are far from the finished article. Playing 6 matches in a week at world class level takes its toll on anyone. Imagine he had a week off before playing that match, it would without a doubt been a standard straight sets day at the office.
“Well, I tried to recover, but obviously I was a little bit tired from the start. But it was okay, you know.”
Basically he is saying he wasnt fit for the match but played anyway.
As for the time warning, I think it is wrong to suggest he lost the match because of this. This is the number three player in the world we are talking about and he did not get there by being put off by umpires.
March 29th, 2008 at 9:03 am
It’s not clear to me why the crowd turned against Djokovic. Did they think the excessive ball bouncing was unsportsmanlike? The poor guy had the crowd against him at the Australian too though for different reasons.
Wow, Dudi Sela took Robredo out. Remind me to talk about ranking bonus points some time or other because they predicted that Robredo would sink in the rankings this year and they also help explain why Kuznetsova doesn’t win many finals (she doesn’t have a good record against players ranked higher than 50). I heard at Indian Wells that the ATP is going to bring bonus points back, I hope so.
Fed should not have any trouble with Monfils, he’s a bit of a mess. As for Murray and Ancic, Murray beat him in Marseille earlier this year. Murray is a pretty good strategist and he’s just seen Ancic’s game so I’m going with him.
Joel, Nino was my father.
March 29th, 2008 at 9:45 am
Well Nino made GREAT music; it must’ve been nice to be around that. Lucky you.
I don’t know why the crowd turns against Djoko either - lots of Fed fans? Apparently Djoko yelled out or something after he won the point following the warning. Some tennis people don’t like excessive emotion and as I think you said already, some are already “back on their heels” about Djoko’s personality so they jump all over him.
Robredo is still in top 20 - amazing after his results this year so far.
March 29th, 2008 at 10:34 am
Wow! I don’t think I’ve ever seen 53 comments about an article! I think it’s interesting that someone mentioned about the other players having a sort of psychological slump because of the Artful one. It’s like someone sneezing and then the whole room is sneezing. I kind of support the idea of these young bodies that just haven’t finished growing and so have problems with stamina over a consistent long haul. I hope there’s not a syndrome brewing where the person that knocks out a top ten players imediately falls in the next couple of rounds. Now that Kevin’s picked off Joko, how far will he go? Since he’s come out of the “woodwork”, can he stay out and do some dammage, or will he fade back in. This is what makes tennis really interesting to me! when Serena won the Australian open last year, I was going “yes!!” because she came from the “woodwork” section. it didn’t matter that she’d been number one once in her life, she wasn’t numbr one then, but number 81 and although that’s not the back of he cabinet, it’s in the cabinet with the doors closed. Kevin Anderson is in the back part of the cabinet since he’s below 100. I hope Joko gets some rest. I hate him having to lost a bunch of points, but since Rafa lost a bunch by not winning Indian Wells, in a way they are even. I noticed that Roger went up a little bit so that widened the gap between him and Rafa. I really don’t think Joko will be number one any time soon as the spirit may be willing, but the body may not. Aren’t guys still growing a bit at that age. We’ve got a clump of guys in the 20 to 21 age bracket. Juan-Martin Delpotro has gone and gotten himself really injured and he’s 19. Rafa got so injured at that age that he was always talking about “working on my comback” when he started playing again. when I was 19 and 20 I used to get these awful pains in my legs. I was told they were literally “growing” pains. Once I got into my twenties, they stopped. Now I’m in my fifties, I have different kinds of pains in my legs! lol I can’t imagine who will be in the finals. I’m sure Rafa will “fight, fight, fight” until he can’t move, and if Roger puts on his dancing shoes, he may just glide through to the final. Of my six, my lest likely person to be in this final is James Blake, although I’d love it! Actually, the person who really has my admiration even though I’m not particularly drawn to him is Fabrice Santoro. He gets that 35-year-old body outthere and really goes for it. Has he ever won a Masters? I know he participated in one of the longest tennis matches and won it. Jenny, drop me a line and tell me about Ferer and Nalby. I know David F is a good friend of Rafa’s and that David N. teams up with Carlos Moya to play computer soccer against Rafa and David F. I’m really annoyed that the Miami final will not be on Masters TV in the U.s. How come?
March 29th, 2008 at 12:07 pm
Fabrice has never won a Masters or appeared in a Masters final. Kohlschreiber is out already and Roddick lost the first set to Troicki. I haven’t seen Troicki play, has anyone else?
Maybe I should do a research project: look at 19-20-21 year olds in recent tennis history and see how well they’ve fared.
March 29th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
Robredo, Hewitt are also out. Jose Acasuso, my goodness, he seems to have awoken from his slumber of late..I saw Troiki play last year, it was only once, so can’t remember too much about his game, I did think he’s one tough cookie though.
March 29th, 2008 at 5:02 pm
Debra, the final will be on CBS, that’s why, and that’s great news. Even better, we’ll be live blogging so feel free to comment and we’ll post comments in the blog live throughout the match.
Ancic is the winner over Murray in the third set tiebreaker. Wha’? Fox Sports did not broadcast its scheduled 2 hours of Miami today (hockey instead) and Tennis Channel has cut away from Miami after one hour and is now showing Chris Myers interviewing Mats Wilander. The interview is interesting, Wilander is explaining that he burned out because he had to work so hard mentally to win each match because he didn’t have the big shots, but what is it doing here? I’m verging on disgust mixed with complete frustration.
April 3rd, 2008 at 3:09 am
[…] also wrote my opinons on the MVN.com tennis diary regarding Miami. Here are my comments and also a response from […]
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