MVN - Most Valuable Network

Hamburg Thursday + Djokovic/Nadal: Blood on the Horizon

Hamburg action, and some new thoughts as the trivalry heats up on clay.

Nadal/Murray was a disappointment, to say the least. A few of today’s other matches were equally routine, while others were fairly surprising. Verdasco was able to repeat his clay victories over Ferrer at last year’s French Open and in Stuttgart. Ferrer pulled out a tight match between the two in Valencia a few weeks ago, but it’s obvious that Verdasco feels very capable of taking out his higher-ranked countryman on clay just as Ferrer gains confidence against Nadal on hard courts. Ferrer’s clay resume is much greater than Verdasco’s, and I haven’t seen any of their clay matches, but I assume Verdasco’s advantage is that Ferrer can’t put balls away as easily as he can on the dirt–just as Rafa can’t put balls away as easily as Ferrer on hard courts.

Tipsarevich got obliterated by Montanes, as did Monaco by Seppi. Tipsy played well in Monte-Carlo, but his outrageous shot-making seems to me much more tailored for hard courts or grass than clay. Monaco, though, won three clay titles last year (not to mention his good showing at the U.S. Open), only to go away almost completely so far this season. Federer routined Soderling, a guy I keep thinking should be able to give him trouble, and a guy who keeps posting some pretty good wins on clay despite being a fast-court player, through and through. Djokovic did what he had to do against Karlovic, which is all that can be asked of anyone. Moya dismissed Safin after a tight second set, and he gets Rafa as a reward.

The most interesting match that I saw today was Kiefer/Davydenko. The German veteran showed that an experienced all-court game can work on…all courts–taking Davydenko out on clay in two tough sets. Again, the dirt conspired against the more clay-accomplished player, serving to neutralize Davydenko’s considerable foot-speed advantage. Kiefer was able to get back plenty of ferociously struck balls that even Nadal wouldn’t have gotten to on hard courts, and Davydenko crumbled at just the right moments to allow him the victory. But Kiefer’s serve was the real story of the match. He hit his spots so well–time and again on the big points–that another considerable asset of Davydenko’s, his return, was thoroughly neutralized. Great win for the likably-unlikable(?) German, and on home soil.

Tomorrow, Fed gets Verdasco in the lead-off match. Hard to see him losing that one. Verdoq’s weapon is his forehand, and Federer’s is biggerer. Plus the Spaniard possibly eclipses Tomas Berdych as the least mentally disciplined of extremely talented players on tour. Montanes/Djokovic should be a joke. Kiefer/Seppi could go any which way, but if Kiefer can keep serving like that he has the advantage. Nadal, obviously, you can already write in over Moya.

Given the match-ups, you really have to like Fed’s chances of getting to the final, even though a match against Kiefer could be a bit more similar to playing Stepanek than Fed might like. On the other side of the draw, though, you have the huge drama of Nadal/Djokovic looming in the semis. This is the biggest match in men’s tennis since Federer/Djokovic in the Australian semis. First off, the winner of the match will be No. 2 in the world when the new rankings come out on Monday! That’s right, for the first time in two years, Rafa’s position is literally up for grabs, and it will be settled in a single match against his would-be usurper. It’s also important because Djokovic has clearly surpassed him on hard courts, and is perhaps the only player on tour who currently has a sizable mental advantage over Nadal. It would be hard not to favor Djokovic in a grass-court meeting (despite Nadal’s two Wimbledon finals), so clay represents the only remaining strong-hold for any lingering notion of Nadal’s superiority to–or even equality with–Djokovic. Nadal looked healthy today, and provided he doesn’t waste too much time with Moya (as he did on hard courts earlier in the year), he should be able to perform well against Djokovic. Likewise, unless all the pressure of the situation suddenly gets to the Djoker (not holding my breath), he should be able to deal with Montanes efficiently, and take into his match against Rafa the freshness he lacked in last year’s French Open semi. So I’m anticipating an epic, blood-on-the-wall struggle between them Saturday morning, definitely getting up to blog that one live.

Federer certainly hopes that match goes the distance, so he can sit back and poach the title from the relative comfort of his own side of the draw. An interesting thought occurred to me the other day, though. Let’s say Nadal fends off Djokovic for now, and either repeats his finals appearance last year or actually wins the title. Then let’s assume he defends his points at Roland Garros, but that Federer is unable to get back to the final for a third straight year (certainly not too far-fetched a scenario). Now, what if Federer also loses at Wimbledon, with Djokovic winning the title and Rafa makes, say, the semis. What I’m driving at is: is there any way Rafa might remain at No. 2, with Djokovic rising to No. 1 within the next month or so, and Federer suddenly down at No. 3? I’m not in the mood to do all the necessary rankings calculations right now, but it’s a strange thought, isn’t it?

This entry was posted on Thursday, May 15th, 2008 at 1:01 pm and is filed under Carlos Moya, Ivo Karlovic, Janko Tipsarevic, Robin Soderling, Juan Monaco, Nikolay Davydenko, David Ferrer, AMS Hamburg, Wimbledon, Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, French Open. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.