November 29, 2008
The 2008 Top 13 and Roddick's New Coach
Starting with, of course, those terrifying year end lists. It's not just that I'm startled to see another year sneak up on me much, much faster than I imagined possible - the worst part is realizing I'm not much closer to some of my dearly held goals than I was at the beginning of the year, it's the task of predicting the future of tennis players who's psyches may not be up to the task of being the next big thing.
Who'd thunk that Juan Martin del Potro would bust out and win four straight events and have the nerve to stand up to David Nalbandian by putting the year end championships ahead of the Davis Cup as if there were all the time in the world for Argentina to win its first Cup? In del Potro's mind, there probably is plenty of time.
Del Potro is my pick for the ATP most improved player and here are the rest of the top 13 categories. I don't want to spend too much time on this because I want to talk about the prospects for Andy Roddick's new coach, Larry Stefanki. Can he bring something new to Andy's game? But let's go through them for a few minutes.
1. ATP player of the year. Rafael Nadal absolutely. And I'm willing to bet that this is his highlight year, particularly with the Olympic gold medal thrown.
2. WTA player of the year. This is tough because no one dominated and Jelena Jankovic is the weakest number one we've had in terms of slam credentials. But Jelena wins it because she was by far the most consistent player while everyone else was either injured or unable to deal with injury - Ana Ivanovic's thumb injury affected her confidence as much as it did her thumb, or unable to win a final - Svetlana Kuznetsova lost all five finals she played this year.
3. ATP match of the year (I know, I know, but maybe some people may disagree). The Wimbledon final between Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. But I will say this, I still think the 1980 Wimbledon final between John McEnroe and Bjorn Borg with that 18-16 fourth set tiebreak was better.
4. WTA match of the year. I'm picking the Wimbledon final between Serena and Venus only because it's so good to see them go toe to toe in a slam final again.
5. ATP most improved player. JMDP. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga gets an honorable mention.
6. & 8. The WTA most improved player. Dinara Safina without a doubt. And whoever it was that surrounded her with so much positive support that she positively busted out of her former insecure and self-lacerating persona, deserves the WTA coach of the year award.
7. ATP coach of the year. You know what, I'm giving it to Toni Nadal, Rafa's uncle, because I don't think he gets the props he deserves. Rafa's game had improved every year and surely Toni deserves some of the credit.
9. Player who abused the medical timeout rule the most. This was just a weak attempt on my part to bring up the subject of Novak Djokovic because he didn't fit into any other category, and he's known for racking up impressive lists of injuries which don't seem to keep him from winning matches. Maybe the category should have been "Player who most got in his own way," because Nole managed to piss off the US Open crowd after Roddick teased him about his injuries, and he persists in being in your face arrogant. Still, I have him winning at least two or three more slams if he would just grow up.
10. ATP player who is most likely to drop far down the rankings next year. People have been picking James Blake but I think he's still got another year or two in the top 10 or 15 before he sinks. He's thirty years old but he doesn't have a lot of miles on his body. I'm more concerned about David Ferrer's confidence and, even though I've been wrong about him the past two years, David Nalbandian's motivation.
11. WTA player who is most likely to drop far down the rankings next year. Far is a relative term. If you started the year at number two and ended the year at number eight, that's a big drop. For that reason, my pick is Kunetsova because Ivanovic and Maria Sharapova will be back next year and Serena Williams and Venus Williams are now regular tour members.
12. ATP Player who is most likely to rise far up the rankings next year. I'm with Jenny on this one. Marin Cilic is now the number one player in Croatia and he's up to number 22. He's got a pistol whip of a forehand and great movement. He's got so much game that it still might take him a year or two to reach the upper regions, but I'd put my money on him.
13. WTA Player who is most likely to rise far up the rankings next year. Agnieszka Radwanska is a teenager, she's in the top ten, she played in the year end championships. She's my pick and does she look like Dinara Safina's sister or what?
While Andy Roddick's recent coach, Jimmy Connors, was getting himself arrested for failing to disperse after getting into a tiff with the police at a UC Santa Barbara basketball game - this happened, by the way, before the game had even started, Andy's new coach, Larry Stefanki, was figuring out what possible changes he could bring to a veteran's game.
As you could guess by now, the number one priority is Roddick's return of serve. Tennis players today are vastly improved when it comes to return of serve. Federer is right at the top and Nadal is not far behind. And I remember watching Rik De Voest, who's now ranked number 154, return Andy's serve pretty handily at the Los Angeles ATP event and thinking that Andy was in trouble.
But he's not. He held serve 91% of the time this year and that's the best percentage on tour. In an interview with tennis writer Charlie Bricker, Stefanki didn't exactly talk about Andy improving his return of serve as much as changing his attitude:
Confidence is built on the right mechanics and having the right philosophy in your head. Andy, especially on second serve returns, needs to get more aggressive. Not necessarily going for everything, but not just sitting back and returning the ball.
And this too:
He's not a David Ferrer 5-foot-9 roadrunner. You've got to take more risks and unless you do you're not going to create that presence you want on the court.
First of all, if you're not a good returner, at least act like one. No standing way off in the hinterlands to return serve - as Roddick used to do awhile back. Players can smell fear a mile away and nothing buoys confidence like fear in an opponent. Bunting a second serve back into the court falls into the same category. It's not the same as backing up, but it's passive at the very least.
And, if you're deficient in a particular skill, you have to take more chances. That should be easier for Andy than many other players as Stefanki also pointed out. If your serve is deficient and you take chances by going for winners, you could easily lose your serve. If your ground strokes are deficient and you aim for the lines, you'll run up unforced errors. But Andy will hold his serve 9 out of 10 times; he can afford to take a few whacks at second serves.
Works for me. Andy ended the year at number 8 but he was number 6 when he went into the year-end championships. If he ends 2009 at number 6, that would be a major victory considering the emergence of Tsonga, Gilles Simon, and del Potro.
Andy dropped out of the year-end championships with an ankle injury and he missed some tournaments this year with a shoulder problem. Athletes are like cars. Once they start having problems, it's often downhill from there. For his sake, I hope he's got a few more years on him because he's a guy who does as much with what he has as any other player out there, and I appreciate that.
Discussion
13 Comments on "The 2008 Top 13 and Roddick's New Coach"
#1
Posted by zola, November 29, 2008 10:26 PM
Hi Nina, Thanks for the nice article, as always.
I think Rafa should be the most improved player of the year too. He improved his results imopressively on hard courts and grass. two titles on grass including Wimbledon and two titles on hard courts including the olympics. JMDP won four titles, but they were not master series and he did not beat anyone of significance. He then lost in Shanghai and in Davis Cup.He never reached a master series or a major final.
Andy Murray, However, can one of the most improved players right fater Rafa. He has more control over his emotions, his fitness has improved and his serve, return of serve and movement on court have been fantastic. He has won fed, Rafa and Djoko. He played the US Open final and Shanghai semis and has 5 titles including his first master series title.
#2
Posted by tennisbro, November 30, 2008 5:46 AM
How could I have overlooked "Uncle Tony" as the best coach - and of course you're right - and Rafa as the most improved - well, I just think of him as "Warrier #1" - but Murray's right up there with him. Also agree with the Venus/Serena match at Wimbledon.
And for all you Roddick fans - I just don't see it happening for him even with a new coach. And when is he planning to get married? Isn't that an indication of "winding down" a career - unless he's thinking like Agassi and is marrying someone like Stephi - it's a "Deal or NO DEAL" sorta thang, I'm afraid.
#3
Posted by Kim, November 30, 2008 7:37 AM
Fabulous list and I agree on many points.
I'm a big fan of Cilic. He has a huge serve and a powerful forehand. I thought at the US Open he had a great chance to beat Novak but it seemed like nerves and some shot control issues took over in the end.
Dinara's coach is Zeljko Krajan and she credits him often for the change in her play. It's nice to see someone who many wrote off as just the little sister of a superstar make a name for herself.
#4
Posted by lana, November 30, 2008 11:25 AM
I can see you are Roddick's fan, not good to show partiality when writing a general article.
The most improved player is definitely Andy Murray BY A LONG MILE.
As for Novak Djokovic, he deosn't play mind games and give cliches at press conferences, which is what a lot ofpolitically correct brain-washed minds like you cannot stomach.
So, the advice to you is: get off the bandwagon, start using your own head.
#5
Posted by tennisbro, November 30, 2008 12:34 PM
Lana, giving stats of a player is not showing partiality but demonstrates objectivity in presenting facts that we may have overlooked. It's alright to disagree without insulting people who may have a different opinion. I'm not a Roddick fan but I respect his performance record and appreciate when someone points it out for me.
#6
Posted by Nina Rota, November 30, 2008 1:17 PM
I chose Juan Martin del Potro over Andy Murray because Murray started the year inside the top ten while del Potro started at number 50 and ended in the top ten. You could make a good argument for either player.
I've probably been more supportive of Nole than Roddick at times. I'm the one who expects Nole to win at least a few more slams. He's got all the game he needs. But just as I show appreciation for players, I'm frustrated when they get in their own way. If you act like it's you against the world, you'll have fans working against you instead of with you and that just makes your job harder, especially in slams, and that was evident at the Australian Open final.
After watching David Ferrer fall down and out of the top ten this year, it gave me renewed appreciation for Roddick because he's been supplanted by Federer, Rafa, Davydenko and some of the younger players, and yet he still made it to the Masters Cup for the sixth straight year.
Lana, I'm assuming your Serbian because of your username. This is the second time in the past few weeks that a Serbian reader has left unpleasant remarks in support of their players. We welcome you here because it's boring when everyone agrees, but please respond to the issues we've raised rather than personally criticizing the writer.
#7
Posted by zola, November 30, 2008 1:19 PM
I am not a Roddick fan either and I think it is possible for him not to be able to catch up with the up and coming young guns next year.
But what is wrong with trying to improve? The guys is still trying to stay in top form and improve his game. As long as a player is trying to get better, they deserve all the praise and encouragement and Roddick is no exception. we are sometimes so quick in judging the players for things we don't like in them. So it is only fair to point out the positives as well.
I think Stefanki is a great coach and hope this relationship helps Andy get better.
and I can't agree more: "It is allright to diagree without insulting people"!
#8
Posted by Patricia Davis, December 1, 2008 10:55 AM
I've tried to become more of a Roddick fan this year too, as I have a Sharapova fan. It takes some patience to watch Andy, he has patches, then he goes away. He does some things well, and then he throws in some clunkers. And yet as people say, he is still there in the Top Ten so that speaks to some of his capabilities. Must confess though I was a little puzzled by the Stefanki pick. Not because he's not a great coach, certainly one of the best, but I am unsure what he will add to Roddick's game that has not been said before by other coaches. I think Andy knows what is needed but he gets off track a bit, needs reminding. In this sense he is like the big kid whose mom still keeps at him to clean his room. I think Andy may need some sort of working father-figure image to help this along, and that role Stefanki could fulfill I think. Stefanki's comment from the presser about Andy simply staying more aggressive is the key. Not only on the returns of serve but other moments too.
#9
Posted by Nina Rota, December 1, 2008 6:57 PM
Andy has always responded well to strong coaching. I figure Stefanki must be good if he got Fernando Gonzalez to the Australian Open final and he survived Marcelo Rio. Stefanki took some years off because his kids were younger but now he's got a contract to travel with Roddick for 25 weeks but he said he could do more if necessary and that's important because Jimmy Connors didn't want to travel enough. Sometimes we forget how unique Federer is as far as being coachless. It gets lonely out there :0)
#10
Posted by joel-la, December 2, 2008 9:13 AM
I would pick Murray as most improved, since he's definitely an improved "player", which is what the category implies, as opposed to improved "ranking" where I think Del Potro fits better. Murray is improved with regards to focus, aggression, belief and fitness, as was evident at the Masters Cup. Also evident at that event is the fact that Del Potro is improved somewhat but still has a fair bit of work to do.
I think the category made deliberately to single out Nole --in a negative way-- is rather unfair. I disagree with people who say he is still "in your face arrogant" as I think he really made a move inward this year; instead of putting pressure outward, by claiming his prowess, he put pressure inside, on himself, and thats what really hurt him because he was focused on the rankings rather than on his game. I think he's learned from that judging by his post-masters-cup interviews. Moreover, if you go back and watch the video at the USO website, the post-match interview after the Roddick fiasco, Nole seems quite sincere and genuinely hurt by the accusations. Not arrogant in any way shape or form. Perhaps, and maybe this is way off base, he has a weaker immune system or disposition than some. Maybe he pulls out of matches sooner that he should or calls for trainers more than he should, but that does NOT mean he's "abusing" the system or "Faking". Jim Courier said everything Nole did in his match against Rodredo was completely within the rules, and thus no abuse occurred.
I would venture, something most will think is outrageous probably, that if you want to make an argument for a player "who most got in his own way," you could make a strong case for Roger! The man is in some serious form of denial. He took virtually no time off for a serious illness, the mono, and that meant that his illness carried through and affected his entire season, till he all but imploded in the French Open final. Had he rested through Dubai, IW and Miami, he may've been in top form for the clay-grass swing. As we saw, he also had some major chokes on clay against Rafa; he denied his problems all year; and later in the season, he didn't take much time off after the USO when he announced he'd take a hiatus. Essentially, one could argue that he shot himself in the foot by not listening to his body as well as by denying there is any sort of problem with his game. And yet, if we look back at matches as far back as Spring 2007, there was evidence even then of a drop in the level of his play. But he insists and persists that he's still got it all going on, that he will get back the number 1 ranking, and so forth. His stubborn attitude, and his denial, could easily be construed as his "getting in his own way." I would say, that for Roger to get out of his own way, to dig down and really show people his best again, he needs to wake up and smell the coffee!
#11
Posted by tennisbro, December 2, 2008 10:07 AM
GOOD POST JOEL-LA - as I think about it I'm still sticking with Murray for most improved as he had further to go than Rafa.
I don't have any problems with Djoko's time-outs or personality - he's basically a good kid that's very competitive - like all high level performers.
He has breathing problems and he is right to take care of himself during matches within the rules.
As you know I'm a diehard Fed Fan - but you are DEAD-ON RIGHT about Roger - and if he doesn't get it right in 2009 - he should pay for it and I will be right there "yelling at him" again. He needs a coach just to keep him honest with himself and balanced at this point in his career.
#12
Posted by joel-la, December 3, 2008 9:04 AM
Thanks Tennisbro. I think Roger has been living a dream for so long, winning almost everything for almost 4 years!, that it's understandable that he's not really accepting the change of fate. Besides, I also think most good champions have a stubborn streak so that too is understandable. But I do believe that the mono may have come at the worst time, in a way. Because it allowed him--and many others-- to believe it was the sole reason for his less that perfect season (but still an excellent season by any standards!).
Roger could've lost the USO final to Nole in 07, but Nole choked badly, having had 2 sets on his racquet. Rafa was also very CLOSE to taking Wimbledon from Roger in 07, dominating through at least one set. Some say Rafa hurt his knee during the 4th set in 07 and that's why he lost it. And, in 07, Roger lost earlier than usual in some MS events. So there were signs of his game dipping and his timing going off long before the mono.
Moreover, I really feel that had there not been a rain delay, Rafa could've won Wimbledon this year in straight sets, and that, if Murray and Rafa didn't have to play two days in a row, Murray would certainly have pushed Roger harder in the USO final.
So I think that the gap between Roger and the competition has really closed in the last year and a half. That's why I think if Roger wants to stay at the top, he has to get a coach, as you say, to "keep him honest with himself". There is no doubt the guy loves to win and that he has immense talent. But that doesn't mean it can't all slip away. We've seen it happen with other players many times.
And now the field is getting deeper, seemingly all the time! Which is great for the sport. But it means the "older" guard will have to fight hard. Roger has that fighting instinct on the court. But will he do what he needs to do off the court? There's no doubt he'll train. But will he evolve his game? Look for ways to improve timing, shorten points, etc? I guess that is what remains to be seen.
#13
Posted by tennisbro, December 3, 2008 9:51 AM
In the last couple of months Roger has stated what he was going to do to prepare for 2009 - and he was right - he's an intelligent guy - PROBLEM - he hasn't done ANY of those things - and I don't recall him ever mentioning getting a coach.
SOooo, I expect that he will continue to go on as before. But if so - & next year ALL SLAMS elude him - do you think he'll get it then - and if so, will it be too late for him to turn things around?
All of the top 4 can and have beat each other, except for Roger beating Rafa in 2008. If Roger doesn't up his game next year - he won't be able to beat Murray either.
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