November 7, 2008

Riding The Horses - 2008 NL Pitchers

A whole lot of people seem to think there are an abundance of pitchers who pitch all of their starts and throw 200 innings.

So let's check it out. Looking at the NL in 08,

let's first see how many pitchers started 25 or more games:

34 games - 8 pitchers
33 games - 11 pitchers
32 games - 8 pitchers
31 games - 10 pitchers
30 games - 5 pitchers

Adding this up - a total of 42 pitchers in all 16 NL teams threw 30 or more games. That's it. Which isn't even 3 guys/team. And actually, only 19 guys didn't miss a single start. That's not exactly a whole lot of horses out there, is it? If you want to use 32 games as the not missing a start cutoff, you up it to 27 pitchers. Not even 2/team.

29 games - 4 pitchers
28 games - 1 pitcher
27 games - 1 pitcher
26 games - 2 pitchers
25 games - 4 pitchers

And that is only 12 pitchers. That is IT.
There just are NOT that many starters who pitch a complete season out there. The 25-29 group has not only Wandy in it, but Moehler and Peavy and Marquis.

OK. Let's look at IP (including starting + relieving)

>200 IP - 18
190-199 IP - 8
180-189 IP - 10
170-179 IP - 3
160-169 IP - 9
150-159 IP - 5
140-149 IP - 5
130-139 IP - 6
120-129 IP - 0

Guess those self same 19 guys who didn't miss a start are all the guys who threw 190+ innings.

Let's go at this again - there are 16 NL teams. 18, 19 guys, a little over 1/team, starts all of his starts and manages to eat at least 190 innings.

Let's do a little math, for all yall grousing about all the starters who think that if they finish just 6 IP in each of their starts, they have done a great job:

if you complete 34 starts x 6 IP/GS = 204 IP
if you complete 33 starts x 6 IP/GS = 198 IP
if you complete 32 starts x 6 IP/GS = 192 IP

which makes you one of the top 26 "horse" SP in the NL.

Not 1 SP, not even Santana or Lincecum, managed to average 7 IP/GS. (Roy Halliday did in the AL, and CC did between the NL and the AL.)

So how many of the "horses" managed at least 6 IP/GS?

started 34 games: 5 of 8
started 33 games: 7 of 11
started 32 games: 6 of 8  (total - 18 of 27 managed)

started 31 games: 3 of 10
started 30 games: 3 of 5   (total - 6 of 15 managed)

and the, um, almost horses?

started 29 games: 2 of 4
started 28 games: 0 of 1
started 27 games: 1 of 1
started 26 games: 0 of 2
started 25 games: 1 of 4

Total 28 of 54 guys managed to average at least 6 IP/GS.

One more time - there are only 27 guys in the entire NL who managed to start every game. Not even 2/team. Only 18 of those managed to average at least 6 IP/GS.

Conclusion:

1 - averaging 6 IP/GS these modern days is excellent.

2 - darn few guys manage to start every game.

3 - there are exactly 18 NL pitchers who completed all their starts and managed at least 6 IP/GS.

AND only 12 of 16 teams had at least 1 starter who started 32-34 games.

Therefore, guys who can start all their games and can manage to average at least 6 IP/GS are VERY valuable and are going to command a LOT of money as FA.

In case yall curious, of the Astros starters,

Randy Wolf started 33, did not average 6 IP/GS (5.2)
Roy Oswalt started 32, DID average at least 6 IP/GS, Which is why he is an ace.
Brandon Backe started 31, did not average 6 IP/GS (5.1)
Moehler started 26, did not average 6 IP/GS (5.2)
Wandy started 25, did not average 6 IP/GS (5.2)

And by the way, if Backe had forgone his last 3 starts, in which he was clearly no shape to throw a baseball, he also would have averaged 5.2 IP/GS over 28 games.

I KNOW you wanna know which teams had the 18 aces:

LAD - 2
CHC - 2
MET - 2
ARI - 2
SFO - 2
FLA - 2
STL - 2 (and another guy was 1/3 IP from making it 3)
PHI
COL
HOU
CIN

Yes, that's right. The Marlins, Giants, Dbax and Cards all had 2 aces and didn't even sniff the playoffs. Of course, it helps to have position players who can do stuff like hit and field...

Philly had only 1 ace, but they rode him all the way to the WS championship.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tags: Houston Astros, MLB

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