Pats should be picking from the linebacker crop

He had better not be giving away any trade secrets…(Boston.com photo, via Yanksfan vs. Soxfan)
First things first–the biggest news in football today is the appearance on Saturday Night Live last night by Peyton Manning.† And if you haven’t seen the “United Way” spoof sketch yet, you really should. I have been known to hate on Peyton Manning as much as the next red-blooded American, but even I have to give it up for that sketch. It really is actually funny, which is more than I expected from Manning and more than I can say for SNL for most of the last two years.
I also enjoyed the joke Peyton worked into his opening monologue: “What do Tom Brady and the circus have in common? They both have two more rings than [I] do.”
But, as spring training contests grow more meaningful and intermittent†bursts of snow and freezing rain are interspersed with 70-degree days in New England, the football-minded are turning their thoughts toward the draft, particularly this year, when it’s widely agreed upon that the team has plenty of building to do, and now that the WR holes have been filled, the defensive backfield has to be the next consideration.
I have to admit I am not an expert on the draft–I’ve never even drafted a fantasy football team, and I have to say I’ve rarely, if ever, even paid attention on draft day. But in my reading so far this year, it seems there are two standout possibilities for the Pats’ first pick (No. 24, which they received for Deion Branch), both linebackers: Jon Beason out of Miami and Patrick Willis, from Mississippi.
Patrick Willis is widely considered the best in the draft at his position, and recently made scouts’ eyes pop at the combine, according to SI.com, “by running 4.4 in the 40 after weighing in at 238 pounds.” By now it’s all but a foregone conclusion that Willis will be gone by the time the Pats have a pick (the assumption being the Pats aren’t going to be trading up to go after him). And so Mike Reiss and Pro Football Weekly have made the prediction in a sidebar that’s part of today’s Football Notes column in the Globe that Beason will be the pick.
According to a Patriots Football Weekly article written shortly after the combine,

PFW started the Patrick Willis bandwagon two months ago but unfortunately, too many people are now riding that train. Willis has propelled himself into the top 20, which means the Patriots would have to trade up to get him. If heís gone, Beason would be a nice consolation prize. Primarily an outside backer at Miami, Beason would move inside for the Patriots. The athletic linebacker has drawn comparisons to Jonathan Vilma, a player Bill Belichick always speaks highly of.
On the surface, Beason looks like a Tampa 2 outside linebacker but thatís not necessarily the case. People at the Combine said Beason has the physical ability to move inside and play the MIKE in a 3-4 scheme. That would give the Patriots the luxury of grooming Beason behind Tedy Bruschi and using him on passing downs as a rookie because of his good coverage abilities. Beason is also a big hitter and solid special teams player. He would add some much needed youth and athleticism to an ageing position.
There isnít a lot of buzz about Beason yet, but heís shooting up draft boards and NFL Networkís Mike Mayock believes heíll be selected in the first round. With his physical skills and instincts on the field, Beason would be a good fit in New England.

Meanwhile, some experts, which include my father (his credentials: high school quarterback, 1961-1964, high school football coach, 1970-c.1990; Patriots fan since 1960) like Paul Posluszny, out of Penn State. My father’s reasoning is that Penn State has a better reputation for producing linebackers (this is quite an admission for him as an Ohio State fan, you must also understand).
Still, I have to believe that the Patriots are eyeing players in general like Beason, who is lauded for his football intelligence. (How smart can he be? was my father’s rejoinder. He went to Miami.) Unlike Beason, however,†Posluszny has some experience on the inside, and has shown the flexibility to play in both positions, while Beason is a relatively unknown quantity on the inside.
Let’s throw out the “Linebacker U” factor with Posluszny–previous performance, even of the same player, does not indicate future results, and certainly the performance of previous alumni does not indicate what Posluszny will do just because he went to the same school. The only thing giving Posluszny any edge, in my mind, is the fact that he has experience going inside rather than just a vote of confidence that he can do it. However, Beason has an edge to match there, with his special-teams versatility.†
A dark-horse candidate †is David Harris out of Michigan, which PFW ranks right behind Willis in a more recent article on inside linebacker prospects:

Harris is arguably the fastest of all the inside linebackers. He has the speed to run down receivers and running backs in the open field and moves well laterally sideline-to-sideline. While Willis is the best run stuffing inside linebacker in this class, Harris is the best in coverage. Because he runs like a safety, Harris has no problem covering tight ends and even slot receivers on occasion. Another quality Harris possesses is his ability to read and react. He diagnoses a play quickly and is usually in the hole before the ball carrier is. Harris is much faster on the football field than he is on a track and that shows up when you see him on tape.
Weaknesses: The Michigan back seven is a tough group to assess because its front four dominated most of the time. Harris does make a lot of tackles in the backfield. Although, one reason for that is because Alan Branch was so disruptive, he was always occupying two or three blockers at a time, allowing Harris to run free. Now, you canít blame Harris for playing on a great defense but he didnít have to take on blockers very often because the Wolverines front four was constantly collapsing the pocket. When he did get tangled up with bigger linemen, he had some trouble breaking free. Harris is physical, so he doesnít mind mixing it up, but heís at his best when playing in space.

When in doubt, with Belichick and Pioli, expect the unexpected. This means I’m personally paying more attention to Harris than I might if he was being considered by other NFL decision makers. Keep in mind the Pats already signed Adalius Thomas, whom some pundits have already compared favorably with Willie McGinest.
And all of this, of course, is presuming the Pats will even select a linebacker in the first round at all. Compounding the difficulty of a prediction here is that All Things Bill Belichick’s history of draft choices shows that Belichick has only drafted a linebacker in the first round once, Craig Powell in 1995, a man not exactly destined for Canton. In fact, the inscrutability of Belichick is apparent in this week’s Globe Football Notes chart showing all the mock draft projections for the Patriots first round. Eight experts were polled; none named the same picks at No. 24 and 28; only one player, Beason, was named the first pick twice. Everything else seemed to be a crapshoot.
Mock drafts, too, seem to be a crapshoot. As one columnist put it:††”when you hear about a player moving significantly up or down the draft board based on his pro day workout, it’s a pretty safe bet that it’s the media scrambling to get a handle on the player’s correct value, not the NFL scouts.”
In the end, though, while I’m hedging my bets heavily, my bet is still on Beason. I believe the Patriots will select a linebacker first this draft because the position has†the best crop of prospects, and while it’s no secret that the Pats are trying to rebuild at†several defensive†positions, they also have been stalwart in the past about selecting the best player available, rather than solely by position. I believe Willis will go too early and there’s a chance they could pick Harris up with a later pick. With Thomas filling the rush coverage gap left by McGinest, I have to believe the Patriots want a quick, smart, almost†safety-like linebacker who can work in pass coverage, a description that best fits either†Beason or Harris. It also helps that he’s†a lesser-known quantity, a perfect fit for the Pats’ M.O.
P.S. Not to harp on this point, but huzzah for a fact-filled Football Notes column this weekend, including a highly non-confrontational and informative†Belichick interview, no coincidence as it was authored in Borges’ absence by the Globe’s most knowledgeable football staffer, Mike Reiss.