Tag Archives: Bill Belichick

Patriots have another tough game ahead

The New England Patriots welcome back Randy Moss and a Minnesota Vikings team that play better than their 2-4 record.

As much as fans were worried the San Diego team could have been a trap game for the Patriots, this week should raise moreĀ  about Patriots team will show up on Sunday afternoon.

The Patriots have outperformed so far this year with a record of 5-1 (the loss coming against the Jests). Accordingly, what seemed like a tough schedule has turned into a schedule of the unknown.

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Patriots lose ugly on national stage to New Orleans Saints

Minutemen with cell phones

Two years ago, when the Saints and Patriots met, it was the Patriots who were perfect. This time, the quarterback touching lofty new heights of perfection was wearing black and gold.

In pure football terms, it could turn out to be a watershed game, a kind of coming-out party for Drew Brees, who has already been the talk of the league this season, but joined the likes of his opponent tonight and Peyton Manning with a five-touchdown game through which he had a near-perfect passer rating. The Saints are playing a kind of football the Patriots should recognize–the kind we were witnessing two years ago. To an objective observer, they put on a beautiful show.

If you’re a Patriots fan, though, this game was ugly and excruciating.

It began competitively enough, with the Patriots ahead 7-3 midway through the first quarter. They scored that early touchdown on a beautiful line surge with a two-back set that left the New Orleans defense grasping at air, while Laurence Maroney scooted past them, between Stephen Neal and Nick Kaczur on the right side of the line, into the end zone. Then, the Patriots defense forced a Saints punt, and Wes Welker slipped away from at least two tackles on his way across midfield to begin another drive deep in Saints territory.

Around my office today, I’d been engaged in the usual pregame banter and predictions, and I had to be honest: I wasn’t expecting the Patriots to come out on top in this game. Though they’d barely been edged by also-undefeated Indianapolis, the Saints seemed like an even more formidable foe, especially with Fantasy Football stud Drew Brees at the helm. But by the time Tom Brady stepped to the line after that Welker runback, I was beginning to think, O me of little faith.

And that’s about when Brady, flushed out of the pocket and scrambling, spotted Moss down-field and heaved the ball hopefully in his direction, only to have the route jumped by Mike McKenzie for an interception.

That was bad enough, but on the ensuing Saints possession, the defense also began to go south. Brees completed a swing pass to runningback Pierre Thomas in the backfield on a 4th and 1. The primary Patriots defender, Derrick Burgess, dove at Thomas’s feet and missed just past the line of scrimmage. Adalius Thomas seemed to leave another engagement along the right sideline too slowly as the runningback swerved upfield, and also missed. By the time Vince Wilfork made a desperate effort to catch Thomas coming from midfield, he had no chance; Thomas also passed a seemingly apathetic Jonathan Wilhite on his way into the end zone.

In various midgame analyses, that interception and ensuing score were emphasized as the turning point of the game. Much was made of Brady’s miscues and the absence of Sebastian Vollmer (as well as the side drama of Belichick’s particularly acerbic responses to questions about Vollmer’s condition). A collapsing pocket and deceptive looks from the New Orleans defense were giving the Patriots offense fits, of that there is no doubt.

But I was more upset about the defense. If the offense this year has been mediocre, the defense, at times like tonight, has been terrible. With about ten minutes remaining in the first half, Brees faked as if he was going to make another short pass to Thomas, bringing Brandon Meriweather up while Devery Henderson ran behind him (Wilhite had let him go). Then Brees turned and fired downfield, completing a deep pass to Henderson that laid bare, once and for all, just how bad the Patriots defense can look. The offense wasn’t exactly piling up points, but that coverage was FUBAR.

If I had to pick one especially bad performance among a Patriots secondary that all shared a really bad night tonight, it would be Wilhite’s. He was lifted for a while in favor of Darius Butler after stumbling, staggering and getting burned for another touchdown in the third quarter; his back was literally to the ball and his man when the pass came in. Pathetic.

As the second half opened, there was still hope, especially after the Patriots offense clawed back within a score at 24-17, featuring a long completion (finally!) between Brady and Randy Moss and another Maroney run into the end zone. That is, until the Patriots secondary once again was left with their pants around their ankles on the next New Orleans possession, and the game began to slip away, 31-17.

There was one last gasp for New England as they drove down the field in the third quarter, ultimately facing a fourth down and four deep in New Orleans territory, but an attempt to get the first down with a pass to Moss was once again thwarted by McKenzie, who played a superior game tonight. Another quick slice and dice of the Patriots secondary by Brees, and the game was well out of reach, 38-17.

I had thought it might be bad, but I still didn’t know quite how bad it would feel, especially watching Brady actually sidelined by the end of the game, standing grim-faced with Bill Belichick on the sideline as the final minutes played out.

Worse, all of the above only served to underscore themes that have already become all too familiar this season–this was no one-off fluke. “This whole game,” tweeted Joe Haggerty of Hacks with Haggs, “is Exhibit A in the case of Bill Belichick vs the people of New England on 4th and 2.”

We’re at the point in the season when team identities are starting to form, and while the Saints are looking downright magical, the Patriots seem to be establishing themselves in the middle of the pack — over .500 and capable of beating up on bad teams, but not flying among the class of the league this year. There will be no Comeback Player of the Year Award for Brady, as New England fans may have fantasized before the season began. And it’s even beginning to feel like the zeitgest of the league has begun moving away from us, to the west, and south.

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The Belichick Debate

I'm the boss...need the info...I thought if there was ever a cause for unanimity in the sports world, it would be in the reaction to Belichick’s call on Sunday night. Everyone outside New England hates him and will jump at the chance to dog him, I thought, and New England fans would be so distraught over the game they’d be desperate for someone to blame.

But this is the Internet. And so a contrarian view began to spread yesterday, virally. A view I believe started with someone’s desire to take a fresh angle on the obvious story, but that’s neither here nor there.

Every one of these analyses seems rooted in a statistical argument encapsulated in a Deadspin post entitled “Bill Belichick Was Right.”

With 2:00 left and the Colts with only one timeout, a successful conversion wins the game for all practical purposes. A 4th and 2 conversion would be successful 60% of the time. Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position. The total WP for the 4th down conversion attempt would therefore be:

(0.60 * 1) + (0.40 * (1-0.53)) = 0.79 WP [win probability]

A punt from the 28 typically nets 38 yards, starting the Colts at their own 34. Teams historically get the TD 30% of the time in that situation. So the punt gives the Pats about a 0.70 WP

I wasn’t going to harp on it anymore, because it’s ultimately a matter of opinion, not fact, and I can scream my conclusion till I’m blue in the face and it’s not going to make anyone agree with me, nor should it. But I’ve been irked to see this argument passed along uncritically, and spent so much time repeating myself on Facebook, on IMs, etc. having this same conversation that I just want to put my argument up and then be able to send someone a URL whenever I want to continue making the same points.

First off, this isn’t baseball. The sports are apples and oranges, to begin with. Also, football is far behind baseball in terms of the fine-grained statistics that are gathered (though places like Football Outsiders are doing a great job of changing that picture).

Thus I find especially suspect the reliance on the calculation that “Historically, in a situation with 2:00 left and needing a TD to either win or tie, teams get the TD 53% of the time from that field position.”

Not Peyton Manning, specifically. Not the Colts. This means that throughout all time, teams, which means everyone from the Sisters of the Poor to the top flight of the league, have a 53 percent chance of scoring. I think that statistic is debatable, to say the least.

To me it is not as debatable as it’s being made out to be that if you gave Peyton Manning the ball with 2 minutes on the opponent’s 30 yard line, given the other two insanely quick scoring drives that had just transpired and the way the Pats defense was playing late in the game, that he was going to score. I don’t care what the overall team’s red zone efficiency states, in that game, in that moment, with the Pats defense shortstaffed because of injury, clearly losing steam and also losing momentum, there’s no way IMO the Pats are going to make a goal-line stand and win the game.

There’s also no guarantee that a punt meant the defense would be able to stop him, either, but I find it really hard to believe that the odds of Manning scoring from his own 30 are lower higher than scoring from the New England 30. That’s the information that matters with 2 minutes left in the game. I’m finding it really hard to stomach ppl weighing in with overall historical fourth-down conversion stats to essentially argue that giving Manning the ball on the New England 30 was somehow preferable or at least neutral compared to giving him the ball on the Indianapolis 30. It’s like arguing in baseball that a runner on first has a better chance of scoring than a runner on third.

Similarly, it was brought up yesterday morning on WEEI that the Patriots have a 63% fourth-down conversion rate this season (also heard 60%, 73%…) But that statistic also doesn’t account for time to go and game situation. It’s not a stat that’s representative of situation the way baseball stats are — where you say with less than 2 outs or with a man in scoring position. This is just conversion rate each time they’ve faced a fourth down, not accounting for the yardage to go, score, time remaining, opponent…

D&C’s point was that you can’t go by that statistical calculation, because in many cases when a team goes for it on fourth down, they’re behind significantly and the other team is playing a softer containment defense, or the game is imbalanced in some other way. This wasn’t a decision you could make in a vacuum just looking at the overall conversion statistic.

In short, if you could tell me that on fourth and 2 in the final three minutes of a game against AFC opponents ranked 5th or higher overall, the Patriots, specifically, have a 63% conversion rate, that might be different.

I will concede the point that focusing overmuch on the 4th and 2 decision isn’t wise, either, since there were so many other factors that led up to that situation, and a series of decisions that followed it that were in some ways equally inexplicable. There was also Maroney’s fumble in the end zone (he’s lucky Belichick is drawing the amount of attention he is this week), and the notion, which I expressed at the time, that if they’re playing at Gillette, I wonder if the ref sees Faulk “bobble” the ball.

But if the percentages really line up in favor of Belichick’s decision, if it’s really been mathematically demonstrated it’s the right call to risk giving it up on downs deep in your own territory up by less than a score with two minutes to go in the game, why does the punt exist in football at all?

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Patriots' Brady & Moss Show prevails over Miami Dolphins

Randy Moss and Tom Brady on the sideline

The game first got going in its early minutes with a spectacular play from one of the Dolphins’ rookie defensive backs, Vontae Davis. He timed his leap perfectly with the much taller Randy Moss’s jump for the ball, which happened to be slightly underthrown, and snatched it away for an interception the Dolphins would convert into three points.

On their next possession, Tom Brady and Moss took the field with Davis clearly in their sights. After a run from Laurence Maroney, Brady heaved a bomb downfield for Moss again, wasting almost no time in creating a rematch with Davis. This time, Moss big-leagued the rookie with a one-handed circus catch just hovering at the comprehensible limits of human ability. Jump that route, kid.

Back to Maroney again, who executed another crisp run off tackle, his third in as many handoffs, into the end zone for a 7-3 Patriots lead.

The offensive line, which last week committed 9 of 10 Patriots penalties, played most of the first half like a well-oiled machine, until Dan Koppen left the game with what looked like a right leg injury. After that, Brady found himself with a few more grass stains than might’ve happened otherwise, and an offense that put on a laser show at times during a roller-coaster first half had to settle for field goals more frequently than they otherwise might have.

The Dolphins, unlike the Buccaneers and Texans, were also formidable opponents, on both sides of the ball. Their first drive of the second quarter, featuring the Wildcat anchored by second quarterback Pat White and a bruising running game featuring Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams, was a brilliantly coached, brilliantly executed onslaught you just have to give Miami credit for.

Still, every time the Patriots got smacked in the mouth in this game, they bounced back instantaneously. Moss and Brady’s treatment of Vontae Davis would become a parable for the way the rest of the team responded to a series of clever attacks from the Dolphins.

As for Davis, he had a long rest of the afternoon following his early moment of glory, including an absolutely savage stiffarm from Moss in the third quarter that served the dual purpose of ridding the sprinting wide receiver of the rookie’s coverage and propelling Moss forward toward the end zone.

Meanwhile, by halftime, the core that’s emerging at the heart of this defense, Brandon Meriweather, Jerod Mayo and Adalius Thomas, was beginning to clamp down on the Dolphins’ running game. At which point the Dolphins took to the air, keeping the score within a touchdown until the final seconds of the fourth quarter ticked down.

In the end, though, Henne and his receivers were no match for the Brady / Moss show, especially once Brady started mixing in the seemingly indestructible Wes Welker, the way a pitcher mixes in an off-speed pitch after establishing his fastball. With a fatigued and shortstaffed offensive line, the running game also didn’t look quite as sharp as in the first half, but Maroney remained mostly effective heading into the later minutes.

After the Wildcat and the running game overwhelmed the Patriots defense, Belichick hunkered down with his defenders on the sideline, scribbling on his whiteboard and talking a mile a minute. Slowly, the Patriots began to contain the running game. After Chad Henne and his receivers beat the Patriots deep, the New England defensive backs retook the field with a fixation on creating a turnover, which they very nearly did, and for a touchdown, no less, were it not for a helmet-to-helmet hit on Henne by rookie Patrick Chung.

In the end, though, that particular touchdown didn’t matter. What mattered was the aggression and redoubled determination the defense was playing with, and the quickness with which they were adapting. By the time the Dolphins were running an attempted double-reverse at the end of the third quarter, Adalius Thomas was there to stop Chad Henne cold–for a loss. At third down and a train ride, there was Thomas again, right beside Davone Bess, thwarting an attempted screen.

This is the Bill Belichick New England fans focus on, the Bill Belichick standing among his defensemen on the sideline with a whiteboard. A man who so commands their respect, loyalty and trust, and who does it with such discipline, that his team responds immediately, elegantly, with an almost religious zeal.

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Seau returns to New England (again)

The Versus Network, which is debuting a new show called “Sports Jobs with Junior Seau,” is reporting that Junior Seau
has un-retired once again to play football in New England. Seau’s
return has been rumored for a couple of weeks, but the network he was
working for is the first to report that he has indeed signed with the
Patriots to return for a 20th season. With the current youth movement
on defense, I’m still trying to figure out why exactly Bill Belichick
would bring in a 40-year-old linebacker. The defense, overall, hasn’t
been bad, and has actually come up with stops when needed. The problem
in Denver this past Sunday was the offense not capitalizing on anything
in the second half, being completely shut out.

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UnPatriot-like problems continue to hurt – will they rebound before the bye week?

After the loss to Josh McDaniels and the Denver Broncos, it is time to reflect a bit more on the 2009 New England Patriots.

This is not your team of the decade as the Patriots continue to struggle offensively with Tom Brady playing the lead role in disappointment. Add to this the poor performance of a third receiver like Joey Galloway – oh I’m sorry he doesn’t play, just practicing and getting a paycheck – so not having a third or fourth receiver threat, a first round bust in Laurence Maroney and poor coaching decisions on defensive packages and play calls and you have a recipe of something you would not even want your mother-in-law to have.

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Last minute thoughts on Patriots v Bronco

As always each week brings a new challenge and there is more news than just that Coach Belichick will face off versus his undefeated pupil Josh McDaniels. McDaniels knows om Brady and the Patriots offense well having coached them over the past four years, but that is not the only area of concern.

Two veterans signed in the off season will not be playing today, while another veteran is expecting to join the team in the near future. Running back Fred Taylor, aka Fragile Fred, has has an ankle injury and subsequent surgery that may or may not be season ending. Taylor has been a boost for the team as Laurence Maroney still looks like he has been practicing for ‘Dancing with the Stars’ rather than the NFL.

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Building on a tough win, Patriots still have work to do

A win is a win and two in a row over teams that had success in the playoffs last year and expecting to be there again this year is a good sign.

As much as I enjoyed watching the game late night in Geneva, at times it was frustrating and I was concerned by the lack of consistency with the offense. The running game was a bit awkward but did enough to keep the Ravens in check. No real big gains, but two touchdowns – one from Sammy Morris and the other a QB sneak by Tom Brady was enough of a threat in the redzone where in previous weeks there was none.

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Consistently inconsistent, will Patriots remain above .500?

Always take the ‘W’ no matter how you get it. During a tremendous comeback versus Buffalo in week one, a loss to the Jets in week two and a win versus a solid Falcons team in week three, The Patriots did something they do not often do. They did settled for field goals when normally they would have scored touchdowns.

The team mantra still seems to be inconsistency on offense, whether it is coming from Tom Brady, Sammy Morris or coach Bill Belichick. Missed opportunities converting on third and fourth downs, Brady overthrowing receivers or receivers dropping balls.

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Patriots face Falcons expect them to air it out

If anything has been proven over the past two games it is that Brady is throwing the ball alot. Over 100 times in fact versus the team running the ball just over 40 times.

This is not a balanced attack, but also do not expect it to change much this week. OK maybe a bit more balanced, however, facing a stout Falcons run defense will not help Brady. The Falcons defense have been successful in turnovers having five forced fumbles and an interception.

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