MVN: Most Valuable Network

KC won the toss, deferred, and would come to regret that.  Miami returned the kickoff 60 yards to the KC 31.  On the very first play from scrimmage, Chad Pennington faked the handoff to Ronnie Brown, gave the ball to Ted Ginn on the reverse, and Ginn streaked down the sideline for the touchdown.  18 seconds in, 7-0 Miami.

A few minutes later, the Dolphins would extend their lead after an interception by Andre Goodman at the 18 yard line.  But only after getting a good break.  On 1st and 10, Chad Pennington passed left to Ronnie Brown.  Brown was hit in the backfield and lost the ball, recovered by the Chiefs.  However, KC was called for unnecessary roughness, giving the ball back to Miami.  They didn't do much with it, but that was easily close enough for Dan Carpenter to hit a 34 yard field goal, making it 10-0 Miami.

But the Chiefs didn't plan to roll over at home.  They took the ball at their 35 and only need 3 plays to get to the endzone.  Thigpen to Darling for a 33 yard touchdown catch, narrowing the score to 10-7.

The Dolphins punted on their next drive, and the Chiefs tried a new strategy.  No huddle, shotgun, and began methodically driving down the field.  They would take the lead on a textbook drive, 17 plays covering 80 yards.  They converted two 4th downs, including 4th and 1 at the 8, Thigpen hitting Gonzalez who plowed his way into the endzone.  Early in the 2nd, the Chiefs had the lead at 14-10.

That was really when the fireworks began.  The Dolphins answered that score with a quick but long drive.  72 yards in just 5 plays.  Pennington lofted a pass to David Martin for the 11 yard touchdown.  17-14 Dolphins.

Back came the Chiefs.  Thigpen hit Charles on a short pass that got way downfield, 75 yards.  On 1st and goal from the 2, Larry Johnson plowed into the endzone, giving the Chiefs back the lead at 21-17.

Dolphins answered right back.  7 plays covering 66 yards.  Mostly Pennington passing, and he hit the other tight end, Anthony Fasano, for a 14 yard score.  The Dolphins had snatched the lead back at 24-21.

The Chiefs would answer right near the end of the half, after getting a huge defensive stop.  The Dolphins decided to go for a touchdown, 4th and 1 on the Chiefs 5.  The Chiefs held, giving them back the ball.  They then went on an 8 play drive covering 95 yards.  Thigpen scrambled 8 yards for the touchdown, and the Chiefs would lead at the half, 28-24.  But a quick kudos to the Chiefs.  They got the ball back with 15 seconds left.  What can you do, right?  But the Chiefs didn't kneel, taking 3 shots down the field before time ran out on them.

KC had the ball to start the second half.  The Chiefs went back to the no huddle shotgun, and it once again worked.  The only 4th down the Chiefs faced was 4th and 6 from the Miami 9, where they kicked a 27 yard field goal to extend their lead to 31-24.

The Dolphins took over at their 40 after a kickoff out of bounds penalty.  It didn't take them long to get it down the field, covering the 60 yards in just 5 plays and 2:25.  For the score, Ricky Williams ran around the left end to get to the endzone.  Miami had tied it up at 31.

Heading into the 4th, the Dolphins would take the lead for good.  Starting on their 15, the Dolphins once again went on this classic, Chad Pennington led, clock-eating, ball-controlling, game-settling drive.  They took the ball with 12:41 left.  They went on a 13 play drive, covering all 85 yards.  Pennington hit Fasano again for a 14 yard touchdown, with the clock reading 4:08.  The Dolphins took the lead 38-31 and that would be the final score.

THREE UP, THREE DOWN

Three Above Zero...

1) Chad Pennington - In a game that turned out to be a battle against the elements and the other team, Pennington once again kept the troops calm and collected.  Another day that wasn't stunning, 26/34 for 235 yards, 3 touchdowns and 1 rare interception (only his 6th of the year against 14 touchdowns).  But doing all he has to when he has to makes Pennington the Dolphins best QB since Marino.

2) Anthony Fasano - 3 catches, 47 yards, 2 touchdowns.  Quickly becoming Pennington's favorite target.

3) Ted Ginn - Not the breakout game we were looking for.  But Ginn did score on a sweet reverse on the game's first play.  And though he only caught 4 passes (on a day the Dolphins spread the ball to 7 different receivers), his 44 yards receiving did lead to a sweet 11.0 YPC average.

Honorable mention to the Dolphins secondary, which picked off the Chiefs 3 times.  Andre Goodman, Renaldo Hill, Nathan Jones.  Good job, guys!  That secondary is really coming around.

Three Below Zero...

1) Defense - Surprisingly tough day for them.  Larry Johnson is a great back (just 12 carries but 108 yards), Tyler Thigpen may be an emerging QB (20/41 for 320 yards and 2 TDs with 3 picks), and their receiving core may be good as well (Tony Gonzalez 7 catches, 64 yards and a TD, Jamaal Charles 3 catches for 102 yards).  But it was still surprising for a team that didn't give up an offensive TD for over 3 games to suddenly give up 31 points to a 2 win team.

2) Coaching of Ronnie Brown - Not bad numbers for what he got.  4.0 YPC.  The problem?  8 carries.  EIGHT, for 32 yards.  Ricky Williams got more carries (hey, he did get a TD).  4 more carries, and only 2 more yards.  This was a day with the cold where Miami needed to pound the rock, and Miami stuck fervently to their 20 carries combined method.  When you have two starter-quality (yes, I AM saying that about Ricky) running backs, you can run upwards of THIRTY times, even near 40 times, without overusing them.

3) Lack of passing yards - This sounds a little contradictory after I went nuts about the Dolphins needing to run the ball in the cold.  But if they insist on passing...Pennington only passed for 235 yards passing to 7 different receivers!  9.0 YPC for them.  The Chiefs only passed to 5 different receivers, and passed for 320 yards, 16.0 YPC.  This may be a symptom of Miami's short passing game, but I'd still like to see those passing yard numbers get a little higher.

But in the end, who cares about passing yards when you are winning?  This is 4 straight and 8-1 in the last 9.  Miami has taken care of business, navigating (however treacherously) through the weak part of their schedule.  They might be overlooked for that, but the Jets now need help to win the division even with a win, because they couldn't beat teams they should.

Speaking of which, here on one of the last pieces of Polaroid film, is the Dolphins playoff picture.  Folks, I ran these numbers my own self, on real cut from trees paper!  Yahoo has a great online simulator, that lets you pick games and see what happens to the playoff picture, but it wasn't updating quite fast enough.  So I pulled up the NFL Standings and Tiebreaker Scenarios, and did it myself.  When the Simulator caught up, I checked my work and was right on the money.  Here we go.

Here is the complicated, difficult, algebra and calculus formula the Dolphins must follow to make the playoffs.  Win.  That's it.  No help needed.  Beat the Jets next week and the Dolphins win the AFC East and make the playoffs.  The Dolphins own the tiebreaker with the Patriots.  If the Jets win, the Dolphins lose the tiebreaker with them head-to-head anyway.  The Dolphins have been eliminated from Wild Card contention.  If they lose to the Jets, the best they can finish is tied with the Ravens, who beat them earlier this year.  If they win, they win the East anyway.

For the record...The Titans clinched the #1 seed in the AFC today by pounding the Steelers, who get the #2 seed.  The AFC East winner will be the #3 seed because 8-7 Denver and 7-8 San Diego will play next week and determine the AFC West winner and #4 seed.  The Colts have clinched the first Wild Card as the #5 seed, and will play their first playoff game on the road at the West winner even with a superior record.  

The Jets beating Miami will not be enough to win the East.  They need the Bills to beat the Pats to win the East.  If the Pats win and the Jets win, the Pats win the East.  Again, all Miami needs to do is win.  The Ravens win the other Wild Card (a trip to the East winner) if they win, if they lose they need a Pats loss.  The Pats and Jets each need to win for a shot at the Wild Card, along with Baltimore losing to 5-10 Jacksonville.  Along with that, the Pats need the Jets to lose, but the Jets would take the Wild Card if the Pats win (if the Pats lose, the Jets would win the division as long as they beat Miami).

If you are confused, don't worry about it.  As Dolphins fans, all we need to do is win.  Win and we're in, AND AFC East Champs for the first time since 2000.  Lose, and we're out.  We've won 10 games and no matter what, that's amazing.  But it would still be bitterly disappointing to have this strong a resurgence and come 1 game short of the playoffs.

So Dolphins, give us fans a slightly late Christmas present.  Beat the Jets, and win the AFC East!  You know a preview will be coming at The Cockpit, probably just as soon as you finish reading the Chiefs recap over at Home of the Chiefs.