November 20, 2008

Baseball America Top 10: Adam Miller No Longer Top Indians Prospect

Carlos Santana is the new number one Indians Prospect.--photo courtesy of mwlguide/flickr

After four consecutive years of being slotted as Cleveland's number one overall prospect, Adam Miller's injury bug has him slipping in the latest rankings according to Baseball America. This should actually come as no surprise to anyone after how events unfolded this past summer.

Miller started behind the eight ball during spring training with blister problems on his pitching hand middle finger and eventually found his way into the Buffalo rotation a few weeks into the season, going 28.2 innings with a 1.88 ERA. He then again went on the disabled list with the callus problem in late-May. It was decided at that point that surgery was needed to repair the flexor tendon in the finger that was causing the issue, ending Miller's season.

Meanwhile, as the Indians struggled through the first-half of the season, new talent was acquired with the CC Sabathia and Casey Blake deals that added to the Indians farm system, and as we see today, put a few prospects on the big board ahead of the fallen right-hander Miller.

With that said, here is how the 2009 top 10 shakes out.
1.    Carlos Santana, C
2.    Matt LaPorta, LF/1B
3.    Nick Weglarz, LF
4.    Adam Miller, RP
5.    Beau Mills, 1B
6.    Lonnie Chisenhall, IF
7.    Kelvin de la Cruz, SP
8.    David Huff, SP
9.    Michael Brantley, OF
10.  Carlos Rivero, SS

What Stands Out?

First, while compiling this list in my head before the revealing, I would have projected David Huff to continue his climb up the rankings into at least the top-five. He was ranked tenth in 2007, eighth in 2008, and after his best season to date, Huff held a steady eighth.

Though, if you think about it, he really has moved up the chart, it is just that the prospect chart has moved up along with him. Enough that an 11-5 record, 2.52 ERA and 5:1 K/BB ratio did not work to his advantage, at least for this one pre-season prospect ranking.
 
Another startling conclusion that I see is, how in the world did the Dodgers trade Carlos Santana, now listed as an overall number one prospect in a deep talent pool, for a 35-year-old run-of-the-mill third baseman in Casey Blake (who is now a Free Agent) while also giving up a solid relief talent in Jon Meloan?

If everything that we are hearing holds true about Santana and possibly even Meloan, this may be a trade that will go down in history as one of Mark Shapiro's best moves, if not one of best trades by any organization in at least the past decade.  Right now he, not Kelly Shoppach, looks to be Victor Martinez' successor behind the plate.

Santana not only hit a combined .326 with 21 home runs, 117 RBI, 39 doubles, scored 125 runs, and walked more than he struck out, he was also named the California League MVP despite not playing the leagues full season, and was recently tabbed by MLB.com as the best hitter in Class-A. The fact that Santana is a switch-hitter with defensive potential is just icing on the cake.

The last point that was a bit of a surprise to me was that a few names that I had expected were left off of the list. Guys like Wes Hodges, Hector Rondon, and especially Tony Sipp did not crack this list, which to my first fact just goes to prove how high the bar has been raised in the Indians farm system over the past season.

All Hodges has done this season, is hit .290 with 18 home runs and 97 RBI while with AA Akron, and crush the ball in the Arizona Fall League with a .954 OPS, six home runs and 26 RBI in the leagues first 24 games. Hodges was number four on this list just one short season ago. He will be starting 2009 in  AAA Columbus and most likely will get his first crack at major league pitching by the end of '09.

Rondon showcased a solid fastball-slider combination at High-A Kinston to a tune of an 11-6 record, 3.60 ERA and 145 strikeouts in 145 innings of work. He also walked just 2.6 batters per nine innings, which was actually his highest in his three professional seasons, showing that he projects to have good command with strikeout potential. The 20-year-old also pitched in the Futures Game in Yankee Stadium during All-Star weekend as a member of the World Team.

And Sipp. He did not return this season from his Tommy John Surgery until late-June, so again he was someone who was behind to start the season, but when he was ready to go, he was lights out. Sipp threw 33.2 innings split between three levels of competition, striking out 46 hitters to 11 walks, and allowing just 23 hits. His ERA was just 2.67.

Just two seasons earlier, before surgery, Sipp struck out 80 while giving up just 44 hits in 60.1 innings at Akron. As soon as this season he may become a force in the Indians bullpen and again, he did not crack the top 10 after being fourth on the list in 2006 when he was healthy, as he is again.

Other Notes

2. Matt LaPorta was not the number one prospect as many probably would have thought, including myself. Hard to say if it was his rough finish to the season or not, but he is also not performing up to standards in the winter Carribean League, hitting .164 with two home runs in 64 at-bats. It's way too early to worry about this. LaPorta has gone through constant adjustments in his life since the trade occurred. It will do him some good to get away for a bit and return for steady play in one location. He remains on target to hit the big leagues in '09.

3. Nick Weglarz moving into the top-three was a bit of a surprise to me after his power output fell dramatically this season to 10 home runs after 24 in '07. However, he continued to post excellent on-base numbers, and scouts do project that his power to develop. This may be more of a higher ceiling pick than a reflection of what his actual numbers represent.

5. Beau Mills actually slid in the rankings a bit to fifth after a number three listing in '08. That again had nothing to do with performance on the field, and had all to do with the improving talent surrounding him. Mills completed a full season at High-A Kinston where he hit .293 with 21 home runs and 90 RBI. He also showed improved plate discipline and power while playing in increased competition.

6. Lonnie Chisenhall was the Indians first-round draft pick this past summer and has a great line drive stroke that he hits to all fields. It is the main reason that he was selected that high by the Tribe, even though speed, home run power, and defense are still question marks as he begins his professional career. Regardless, it all transferred quite well into Low-A Mahoning Valley where Chisenhall hit .290 with five home runs and 45 RBI in 276 at-bats. The best stat, he only struck out 11 percent of his plate appearances.

7. Kelvin de la Cruz, aka Fausto-lite, because of the high number of groundballs induced, makes his debut in Baseball America's top 10 ranking after a season that saw him off to a terrific start at Low-A Lake County. In 18 starts, de la Cruz went 11-4 with a 1.69 ERA and 96 strikeouts. He however still showed himself a raw talent when faced with the greater challenges of High-A Kinston and AA Akron with 25 earned runs in 34.1 innings for a 6.55 ERA. Debatable top 10 pick, but not a surprise.

9. Michael Brantley is a new piece to the Indians outfield puzzle after being named last month as the player to be named in the Sabathia deal. Brantley comes to the Indians and projects to be the future leadoff hitter who will allow Sizemore to drop down into the third spot in the order. That may be some pressure for a young prospect, but Brantley has shown the skills to get on base and not strikeout. If you can believe it, Brantley struck out just 27 times in 420 at-bats this season at AA Huntsville. He also has speed stealing 28 bases last season.

10. Carlos Rivero was maybe the most interesting selection to be ahead of some of the previously mentioned names that were left off. He has not shown great numbers offensively as of yet, but again I think that this is a ceiling pick. He remains just 20-years-old, has a solid glove, and is improving his power game. His ISO power, which is batting average subtracted from slugging percentage, was a career best .129 last season. That is not great, but as it has been pointed out, a certain other player from Detroit had a similar start to his career. You never know.

Heading for Home

Whether you agree or disagree with the final rankings or even my thoughts on the rankings, one thing should become crystal clear. The Indians depth in the minor league system is stocked once again with quality talent, top to bottom.

Heck, when you can pretty fairly project that guys who just missed the cut and are in the 11-15 prospect range are soon ready to make the plunge into the big leagues, and not just perform, but produce, that is impressive.

So in the end, will it really matter who was where? The mere fact that there are so many quality bats and arms in the system should be making the Indians and their fans smile that there will be a steady flow of talent for the foreseeable future.

Who knows, will this crop of talent be reminiscent of the Indians of the '90s? Probably not, that was a once in a lifetime crop, but if you take a look, there are some comparisons in there that may make you think twice about saying no so quickly.

Click Here for Baseball America's Listing

Tags: AL, AL Central, Cleveland Indians, Indians, MLB, MVN, Tribe Report

Discussion

3 Comments on "Baseball America Top 10: Adam Miller No Longer Top Indians Prospect"

#1

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Posted by joe loudmouth, November 20, 2008 6:10 PM

What is really nice about this list is that includes so many different positions. Balance like this is rare.

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#2

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Posted by jque, November 20, 2008 6:53 PM

Nice looking prospects. I thought you may see Beau Mills in this mix.

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#3

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Posted by James Pete, November 20, 2008 7:13 PM

Michael...excellent first post.

My thoughts.

1. Carlos Santana--I am absolutely surprised that he's ranked #1, if only because he's only done it for a year (what a year though), and he's still so young. That said, this kid looks like something incredibly special. What a steal. He'd be in my top two for sure.

2. Matt LaPorta--He'd be my #1 for a couple of reasons. He can play more than one position, and even though his defense isn't stellar, it's not as bad as has been promoted. He struggled down the stretch, but he has had quite the incredible few months. LaPorta has pedigree and pop...he should be the #1, with Santana, Weglarz and Mills as 1a,b and c.

3. Weglarz--You said it all. He's going to have massive numbers, and has an advanced swing. He's not horrid defensively either. He's young, and will only get better. He'd be my #3 easily.

4. Miller--I wouldn't have the kid in my top ten right now. He did nothing last year. He's got amazing potential however, but I think his value drops out of the pen. Yeah, it will get him to Cleveland, and he may be lights out in his roll, but he should be valued much higher as a starter.

5. Mills-The ONLY reason I don't have Mills higher than Weglarz is because he's older. I think this kid will develop faster, and be a factor by 2010. I think this kid may be the best player in the top five when it's all said and done. There's something about his demeanor and history that I like, although LaPorta is similar in many ways.

6. Lonnie Chisenhall-I don't know much about this kid other than what I've read. He's top ten, but this is high.

7. de la Cruz-He fits here. I'd likely have him down around 10, but he had an incredible year, and deserves notice. We'll see if there's longetivity.

8. Huff-He fits here as well, although he is likely in the majors either out of spring, or before the summer starts. This kid is a winner, and will be a major factor in this rotation for years to come.

9. Brantley-I'm convinced that this kid will rocket through our system. I'm not saying he's much better, or even at all better than the kids in front of him, but he has major league ready-now pieces. He'd likely be my #5.

10. Rivera...seriously...no idea where this came, although my pops has chatted up this kid to me.

Tribe Report will be throwing our hat into the prospect arena soon...

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