MVN: Most Valuable Network

One of my goals in joining Tribe Report was to bring a fresh point of view to the site. I want to share my blend of being an average "everyday fan" that will get excited over things (or not, depending on the move), with my growing desire to become one of the growing sector of baseball fandom that is driven by the desire to more accurately judge a players skill level with the alphabet-soup of acronyms from BABIP to wOBA.

Don't get me wrong. I still love to look at the classic stat lines that television and radio announcers drone on about. It takes me to my childhood days of looking at the back of baseball cards to figure out which players I will trade for that elusive Joe Carter card that I wanted so badly.

But for me, after growing up and dedicating myself to watching and now studying the game of baseball, I find those ways of looking at a player dated. I now thirst for knowledge about how the game is played and won in a deeper way that only sabermetrics can offer. So to that point, as I continue to study and learn, I will share my ideas, research and analysis here with you on Tribe Report.

I hope that this will not only provide some insights into why you may hear that a player is currently overrated when he just hit over .300 in his first extended playing time of his career - cough, cough, Shin-Soo Choo - but maybe even inspire those of you who have yet to make the transition into this side of the game begin to learn and understand it yourselves.  

Just recently while reading over one of my new favorite sites, Beyond the Box Score, I stumbled across this post by one of their contributors, Sky Kalkman. As a numbers guy on a numbers heavy site, he also grew tired of the mainstream ignorance of some of the new age statistics, and decided to start a feature to help fans understand them a bit deeper.

As a part of this initiative, I am taking his "homework assignment" and providing it here in an analysis of the Indians pitching staff heading into 2009. The topic of this first post is batting average on balls in play, or BABIP for short.

What is BABIP?

What better source to get a definition from for this than arguably the top source for sabermetrics, Baseball Prospectus?

"A pitcher's average on batted balls ending a plate appearance, excluding home runs. Based on the research of Voros McCracken and others, BABIP is mostly a function of a pitcher's defense and luck, rather than persistent skill. Thus, pitchers with abnormally high or low BABIPs are good bets to see their performances regress to the mean. A typical BABIP is about .290."

If you are also interested in a formula to calculate BABIP I have listed it below. There are variations to this, one of which is noted in the Beyond the Boxscore column, but this is a great place to start.

(Hits-HR)/(AB-K-HR+Sacrifices)

As noted in the Baseball Prospectus definition, BABIPs do tend at times to stray away from the typical .290 that is suggested (This number varies depending on where you read, but it typically tends toward the .290-.310 range of averages). Thus, if we begin to see that a certain pitcher has unusually high or low BABIPs, then we should then begin to analyze the team defense behind them, or realize that some luck (good or bad) has been a part of his success rather than a new found skill level.

Take for example Jeremy Sowers in his rookie 2006 season. Indians fans remember how impressive he was during that second half. He had many dreaming of him becoming the next Tom Glavine. Sowers finished 7-4 with a 3.57 ERA as a 23-year-old. But what many never mentioned is the fact that Sowers had a very low .257 BABIP to aid that ERA and win total. The next season Sowers' BABIP jumped to a much more average .308 mark, along with a bump in walks, and his ERA skyrocketed to 6.42. From there we have come to know what to expect of Sowers.

Want to go the other way? Go to 2007 with Fausto Carmona. He suffered through a rough rookie season being bounced all over from minors to the Indians bullpen to the rotation. He posted a 5.42 ERA with a .341 BABIP. Definitely on the high side of the range, thus we should have expected a regression to the mean, which as we know happened in 2008. Carmona "broke out" to become a solid rotation figure that nearly won a Cy Young. That season he did however benefit a bit from a .281 BABIP, but it then regressed to a normal .297 average last season.

So you can see with some recent examples that an unusually high or low BABIP can show that a relatively great/poor season has more to it than just the ERA and win-loss record. Before I get to the listing of the Indians pitching staff and their recent history of BABIP, I want to cover a few stats, other than the K/9, BB/9, and HR/9, that I have added to my study to help zero in on what may be in store for the Indians staff this upcoming season.

Left on Base % - strand rate as you may hear it called, is a percentage of runners that a pitcher strands on base. A percentage of less than 70% is viewed as unfortunate, and over 75% is fortunate.

Fielding Independent ERA (FIP) - This is a stat that helps one to understand how well a pitcher has performed when taking defense away from the equation. It looks at specifically what a pitcher controls, including strikeouts, walks, home runs, and HBP. Over time, this number and ERA typically converge within a close range of each other.

Using these statistics, here is a look in on a listing of Indians pitchers who pitched at least 40 innings in the major leagues last season and remain on the roster as of today, plus 2007 numbers if applicable. I also bolded a few interesting numbers.

Player	Year	BABIP	LOB%	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	FIP	ERA
Rafael Betancourt	2008 2007	.323 .246	70.1 86.4	8.11 9.08	3.17 1.02	1.39 0.45	4.40 2.22	5.07 1.47
Fausto Carmona	2008 2007	.297 .281	64.0 77.6	4.33 5.73	5.22 2.55	0.52 0.67	4.89 3.94	5.44 3.06
Zach Jackson	2008 2007	.315 -	63.2 -	4.94 -	2.30 -	1.15 -	4.63 -	5.60 -
Masa Kobayashi	2008 2007	.318 -	72.7 -	5.66 -	2.26 -	1.29 -	4.55 -	4.53 -
Aaron Laffey	2008 2007	.296 .313	70.5 65.5	4.13 4.56	2.98 2.19	0.96 0.36	4.88 3.73	4.23 4.56
Cliff Lee	2008 2007	.305 .313	78.3 62.5	6.85 6.10	1.37 3.33	0.48 1.57	2.83 5.48	2.54 6.29
Jensen Lewis	2008 2007	.309 .339	80.0 81.5	7.09 10.43	3.68 3.07	1.09 0.31	4.59 2.49	3.82 2.15
Rafael Perez	2008 2007	.313 .248	74.3 83.7	10.14 9.20	2.71 2.23	0.94 0.74	3.22 3.01	3.54 1.78
Anthony Reyes	2008 2007	.275 .287	83.6 60.3	4.59 6.20	2.76 3.61	0.73 1.34	4.15 5.25	2.76 6.04
Jeremy Sowers	2008 2007	.307 .308	62.7 63.2	4.76 3.21	2.90 2.81	1.34 1.34	5.05 5.57	5.58 6.42
Indians Pitching Staff	2008 2007	.307 .308	70.7 71.9	6.18 6.44	2.78 2.52	1.06 0.90	4.33 4.06	4.46 4.05

First things first, I would like to start in the bullpen. That was where the main issues surfaced in 2008. Based on the evidence provided in the chart, should we really have been shocked that Rafael Betancourt and Perez both showed an increase in their ERA from '07 to '08? They had unbelievable marks for both BABIP and LOB% in 2007.

For Perez in particular, his FIP stayed fairly close to 2007, showing that his performance didn't actually change that much at all, it had more to do with that regression of the BABIP and LOB%. Going forward, we should not expect too much deviation from this skill level. It may improve some as he hits his prime years as a 27-year-old, but Perez will likely plateau in the very near future.

Unfortunately for Betancourt, his regression occurred at the same time that he was having problems finding the strike zone with his always-excellent fastball (which he threw noticeably less last season). This accelerated the regression not only in his BABIP, but LOB%, BB/9, and FIP.

Assuming that Betancourt is not pitching through a serious injury, and that a fresh start aids mentally in re-finding the strike zone, Betancourt should get back to his usual mid-3.00 ERA and again be a force in the bullpen. Even when as bad as he was in '08, Betancourt's ERA was not representative of his actual performance, which said that he should have had a 4.40 ERA, nearly seven tenths of a run better than his actual ERA.

Looking at Jensen Lewis, it is hard to surmise exactly what level of production to expect, as he was very inconsistent between his time as a middle reliever and as the closer. The numbers as a closer were much more indicative of his 2007 rookie season, but you have to include the whole body of work, and with that, the noticeable drop in K/9 is interesting.

This caused a significant change in his ERA, and FIP (which said he was a very average 4.59). BABIP in particular did regress to .309 after an unfavorable rate his successful rookie season. With that, Lewis is likely closer to the upper level of the FIPs than the amazing rookie numbers. Best bet is an ERA in the high 3.00s or low 4.00s. He is a good reliever, but not great, which is why the Indians continue their search for a true closer.

I'll include Zach Jackson in the bullpen, as he is likely to be included as a long man this year. He, along with Masa Kobayashi were a tad on the less fortunate side of the BABIP average, with .315 and .318 averages respectively. These are not high, but there is a hint of hope that those numbers could decrease, and if all else remains unchanged, give them lower ERA's next season. But, with the weaker skill sets in K/9, and already solid control, the upside of any improvement is limited. Optimistic projections would be in the low 4.00's for an ERA.

Switching to the rotation, let's start with Cliff Lee to see if BABIP had much to do with his turnaround?

You might think that it would have, but, it actually only went from .313 to .305. The main difference, besides the increase in ground balls that I don't show here, is his immediate turnaround in his command of the strike zone. He struck out more and walked significantly less.

This is a real improvement in skill. Granted it may have gone to an extreme level, 1.37 BB/9, and is likely not to happen again, but the drop off should not be drastic. Lee's LOB% was slightly favorable at 78.3, but it was much more normal than his terribly unfavorable 62.5%, which should have given fans a sign that an improvement was coming.

It is pretty much common sense that Cliff Lee cannot duplicate his numbers from this Cy Young season, but don't expect a big drop. His turnaround was more Lee himself than a fabrication of favorable rates such as BABIP or LOB%. On top of a BB/9 regression, his HR/9 will also regress toward 1.0 this year, aiding in an ERA rise that should bring Lee to the mid-to-upper 3.00s and a chance to repeat his 18-win 2005 season.

On the flip side of Lee, look for an improvement from Fausto Carmona. The BB/9 cannot be that terrible again, and if it is, the Indians are in trouble. With the walks coming within range of an acceptable level, Carmona's LOB% will then return to normal as there will be less men on base to strand. These two changes alone will bring down Carmona's ERA significantly.

Looking at Carmona's BABIP, we see that his .297 average was well within the normal range. This goes to prove that his sudden wildness had everything to do with his jump in ERA in 2008. Expect a drop as the walks subside, but don't get your hopes up too high. Carmona is being projected as a pitcher who will have an ERA in the low 4.00 range. This should not be a huge surprise as his FIP was 3.94 during his excellent 2007 performance.

Moving on to the soft lefties, Aaron Laffey and Jeremy Sowers both had BABIPs in the normal range during both of the previous two seasons. It is looking as if these two have been pitching right at their true abilities.

Aaron Laffey in 2007 had the best season between these two, but looking, we see that it was in part due to a low 0.36 HR/9 that regressed to a rate closer to 1.0 last season. Laffey is still learning to pitch to major league hitters, so his K/BB numbers should improve, but the ceiling to Laffey's ability should be viewed as a #3 starter at most, and more likely a #4 guy.

Sowers on the other hand, with the lesser ability to induce groundballs mixed with a low strikeout rate, should not be viewed as anything much more than a #5 starter. Sowers has exhibited some poorer luck with LOB%, which does hint that he can have a sudden improvement in ERA, but these LOB% rates are low because he doesn't close down innings with strikeouts or groundballs (which obviously can help with double plays) as well as others. Sowers is what he is, don't expect much more.

Finally, Anthony Reyes is an interesting case. Looking at his numbers we see a very high LOB% for a starting pitcher, 83.6 percent, and low .275 BABIP. Some of his improvement was true, a significant decrease in BB/9, but the decrease in K/9 and favorable rates make one nervous about Reyes entering this season.

And looking at FIP vs. ERA, we see that Reyes had an ERA nearly a run and a half lower than it was suggested that his ERA should have been. It will be very hard to parlay this success into similar numbers once again. Indians fans should just hope that his FIP of 4.15 is right about where his talent sticks.

That would give a solid return on the Indians investment and make Reyes a solid number three, but this article on mechanical flaws in Reyes' delivery worries me. I have been following this on a few sites now, the other being chrisoleary.com, and with the arm problems that ended Reyes' season, it makes you wonder how much the Indians can actually count on him going forward. The problem has to do with how far Reyes pulls his elbows back in his delivery to where it forms the shape of an upside down, or inverted W. This puts more pressure on both the shoulder and elbow, which in turn causes arm problems. I'll let these sites explain it in more detail if you desire.


Sunday Night Update...

James Pete explained earlier in a post that Jhonny Peralta has been playing third base in the Dominican Winter League, and admitted that the Indians desire him to play there in 2009. What has broke later in the day, is that days after talks between the A's and Furcal broke off, the Indians have resurfaced as potential suitors, according to Jon Heymon.

It still remains unclear if any negotiations have begun, or what the offer would be, but the Indians have been reluctant in previous talks to guarantee the years that Furcal is asking. Though, with less of a market, will he be willing to take a step backwards? We'll soon start finding out this week at the WInter Meetings, it should be an exciting week.

* all numbers in column used from fangraphs.com