December 12, 2008
Could Luis Valbuena be a less-polished version of Carlos Baerga?
Luis Valbuena wasn't on my radar before Wednesday. Luis Valbuena wasn't on any Cleveland Indians fans' radar until the Tribe sent Franklin Gutierrez to the Seattle Mariners in a three-team trades that saw the Indians acquire the hefty second baseman, as well as right-handed sub-mariner, Joe Smith from the New York Mets.
Obviously Valbuena's status as a second baseman made me curious. Was this kid a top prospect? Was he a player that had an opportunity to start for the Indians right away, or was he another prospect in the mold of LaPorta and Brantley that needs at least a half-season of seasoning in AAA before he makes his Indians debut? Even after research, that's not a questions easily answered for Cleveland's new second baseman prospect.
Valbuena didn't register as a top ten Mariners prospect in the recent BaseballAmerica.com prospect report. Of course, what does that really mean. He did register as the top player in the organization with regards to plate discipline, which is something the Indians seem to be focusing on over the past year. Bleeding Blue and Teel felt a bit differently about Valbuena, ranking him in their top ten. You can go round and round with these rankings, but at the end of the day, most are based on numbers and nothing more or less. Rarely are these players scouted heavily before reported on, so it's all subjective.
Is there more than meets the eye with Valbuena?
I can't help but shake thoughts of Carlos Baerga when thinking about this kid. Granted, I'm basing this thought on his stocky build and only a small sample-size of offense (he had a solid 2008 season, but has been below average offensively before that). There has been similar comparisons to Baerga prior to the deal with the Indians.
Here's a site for Mariners' prospects comparing Baerga and Valbuena, at least in build. No, Valbuena isn't a switch-hitter, but he seems to have shown the ability to hit lefties and righties. Scout.com also found the similarities to Baerga in build and play clear back in 2005, when Valbuena was only 19-years old.
Now certainly that's only a surface comparison, as there are several contrasts between the two. Baerga was a free swinger, while Valbuena's attitude at the plate is far more conservative. I doubt very much you'll see Valbuena challenge 100 strikeouts in a season. I think the general consensus is also that Valbuena has the potential to carry a better glove in the field than Baerga, although this is all pure speculation.
Baerga had some incredible years as an Indians second baseman, and I am certainly nowhere near the realm of knowing what kind of ballplayer Valbuena will ultimately end up being with Cleveland. What I do know is that there may be more there than meets the eye. As several before me have already eloquently stated, we've taken Seattle to the shed in several deals. There's no reason to think we haven't done it again.
My thoughts on Valbuena are pretty simple right now. He has upside, and a chance to give the Indians another option at second. Maybe the Tribe did it as a wake up call to Josh Barfield. Maybe the Indians did it to trade Barfield. Maybe the Indians did it because they really think this kid is going to be a good one. Either way, it gave the Indians a better than decent addition to a position of need.
Look for Valbuena to contend sooner, rather than later at second base.
Discussion
11 Comments on "Could Luis Valbuena be a less-polished version of Carlos Baerga?"
#1
Posted by Jon @ bleedingblueandteal.com, December 13, 2008 4:22 AM
Valbuena was the biggest loss for Seattle in the trade, but no one is complaining much, because we are all thrilled to have Gutierrez. Val was one of my favorite prospects, though I tended to see a touch more upside than the average person.
The consensus seems to be that Valbuena's absolute upside is a Luis Castillo with more power and a bit less speed, if that makes sense. He looks a lot like Castillo in the box, at least. Is that Baerga? I didn't see him enough to know for sure.
Scouts have compared his swing to that of Rafael Furcal's, for what that's worth.
Still, Valbuena doesn't have the track record to show if he'll be a legitimate MLB starter. He has some pop tucked away in there with a quick, compact swing, and is slightly above average defender at this point. The best part of him is that he understands the importance of walking, and has talked about it as something he prides himself on and is trying to improve on.
That's rare to find in young players, especially Latin ones. If he realizes how important it is, it is possible for him to become a very disciplined hitter. It's the prospects that would rather hit than walk that won't learn.
Enjoy Valbuena. He's a fun little player to watch. I saw him a few times in AAA and of course during his stint with Seattle. He's an exciting guy.
Hey, at least we got something back in return this time, unlike the Cabrera and Shoo trades!
#2
Posted by James Pete, December 13, 2008 9:48 AM
Perhaps that's why the deal was made Jon, from the Indians' perspective...with regards to Furcal. From what I've been gathering, Furcal was high on their list if they could get him cheaper than the $12 million it's believed Furcal is asking for. Perhaps when the price didn't drop, they looked for a similar alternative...without the speed of course.
Unfortunately, Valbuena isn't a lead-off hitter, which is what I was hoping the Indians would be shopping for.
My biggest worry is that we really have one good year to base any hope on. That, quite often, isn't good enough.
Still, Cleveland does seem to be looking at more players with plate discipline...they strike out a lot.
Thanks for the comments Jon...and for the prospect insight...
#3
Posted by Jon @ bleedingblueandteal.com, December 13, 2008 4:18 PM
If Val pans out, I think he could have the discipline and gap power to be a solid number 2 hitter, or he'll make a great 9 hitter (aka second leadoff man). For not I'm unconvinced that he could be a leadoff guy in the bigs, but he's very young and things can change.
Just curious... I haven't looked around at the Indians sites much, what do fans in general (and you) think about the trade? I feel like the Indians definitely got the worst end of the deal, but I don't really know what's going on in Cleveland, so who knows..?
#4
Posted by Matt, December 13, 2008 4:50 PM
Jon, I don't feel the Indians got the worst end of the deal. They have a stocked cupboard of outfielders. None of them aside from Choo and Sizemore play anywhere close defensively to Gutierrez, but the Indians realize now that they cannot keep having dead weight in their lineup. They need to look at guys who can put up offensive numbers while still being decent in the outfield. Franklin is a guy who really had no place with the better offensive games of Choo and Francisco, the pickup of LaPorta, and the emergence of other guys in the organization such as Brantley and Crowe. They got rid of a guy who, like Brandon Phillips, they realized wasn't going to give them everything they need in Cleveland (but could do well elsewhere). In return they got help in the infield and more importantly in the bullpen. If Franklin can get going offensively and if Val pans out, I think everyone in this trade won, but it was certainly low-risk high-reward for the Tribe.
#5
Posted by Rlaninthesun, December 13, 2008 5:11 PM
Gutierrez may just break out, but the Indians gave him every oppertunity to establish himself. Unfortunately it was Shoo who did instead.
To get a young hurler like Smith along with a potential 2B is, in my view, an outstanding deal.
Besides we have two outstanding pickups via the CC deal in Brantley and La Porta. I doubt Gutierrez will dissapoint to put this trade in Shoo/Cabrera territory, but I hail it as another shrewd move for Shapiro.
#6
Posted by Jon @ bleedingblueandteal.com, December 13, 2008 5:38 PM
That's good to hear. Everyone is happy with the deal. The savvy Mariner fans are estatic, Mets fans think they "got a steal", and you Indians fans seem happy. Good trade all around.
#7
Posted by James Pete, December 13, 2008 10:23 PM
It's interesting Jon...
If you weight the three deals on players alone, and not on trades, the Indians certainly come out on the bottom. The Mariners received 35 minor leaguers in the deal, with some major league ready players as well. The Mets received Poootz...
and the Indians got a submariner, middle reliever, and a one-year (so far) wonder in Valbuena (discounting the fact that many had him rated high early in his career).
It seems like the Indians took a beating. But, they did only give up Franklin Gutierrez. His defense truly is top five in the game, and I'm not going to agree with everyone that says the Indians are deep in the outfield as we speak.
They have potential. Choo exploded last year during the second half. He should continue, but there's really no proof that he will. Ben Francisco can hit, and is solid unto himself, but again, there's no proof that he's any more than a .280 hitter with little pop in the bigs. Dellucci sucks. Gutz was the best defender of them all, but out of position. He couldn't get regular at bats because he never exploded as Choo did.
At the end of the day, Gutz has as much potential to explode as the other Indians outfielders this year, if given regular time. It had to be frustrating for him to constantly have to share time.
That said, Cleveland's top three fielding prospects in AAA are all outfielders, in Trevor Crowe, Michael Brantley and Matt LaPorta.
They won't be ready in the front of 2009, but should be ready soon thereafter (Crowe would be a big leaguer right now if they could manage to deal Looch. So, they are deep in that they have a bunch of guys and prospects, but no clear sign that any, other than Choo, are going to be serviceable early, and there are even questions about Choo.
At the end of the day, they needed to improve their pen (they did, although I worry about an NL arm coming to the AL) and they needed middle infield help (got it).
There isn't a massive downgrade talentwise, if any...so yeah...
this is a rare deal where all three teams are likely smiling...
#8
Posted by Jon @ bleedingblueandteal.com, December 13, 2008 10:41 PM
Indeed.
Everyone over here is raving about Gutierrez's defense-- as am I-- but I feel like I'm the only one talking about his offensive upside as well. He was a 5-tool prospect not that long ago, and has shown glimpses here and there in limited playing time at age 26. Given 600 plate appearances as Seattle's CF next season, I think he has really breakout potential.
If his bat were to hold steady where it is now, he'd still be an above average center fielder, so I am ecstatic about the possibilities here. I really hope he pulls through and makes this a great trade for Seattle, because we need it after the Bill Bavasi era.
Bavasi dealt Carlos Guillen for a bench player right before he exploded. He dealt a great reliever in Rafy Soriano for a non-tender candidate in Horacio Ramirez. He dealt Freddy Garcia in what looked like a solid trade, but it just didn't work out. He dealt Asdrubal Cabrera and Shin-Soo Choo to you guys for Broussard and Perez.. bleh. Then of course the Bedard trade, where he dealt the guy that would be the top prospect in our system right now in Chris Tillman and the guy that would be the starting CF in Adam Jones. It's time for some good trades in the Zduriencik era!
#9
Posted by James Pete, December 13, 2008 10:51 PM
I hear you about the good trade aspect. We've joked awhile over here about ripping off the Mariners, since way back when we dealt you Felix Fermin and Reggie Jefferson for Omar Vizquel...but for sure, you guys got a solid ballplayer in Gutz...
Gutz was one of my favorite Indians, but his struggles were weighing on me, and obviously the big club as well.
I do believe his offensive struggles are based on his irregularity in playing time, as well as the likelihood of irregularity in playing time.
He's a centerfielder, but found himself playing all three outfield positions at times...was benched at times...and was rubberbanded.
Some players can respond to that...but he didn't seem to do that.
He certainly does have the tools to be that five-tool guy. I would say realistically, you're looking at a guy in his best days that could hit 25-30 homers, in the 80 RBI area (depending on the lineup). He could hit .280 or so, and steal you 10-20 bases.
I used to project a higher ceiling...but right now, I think even the ceiling I just gave you is a question mark. Perhaps in Seattle, with two outstanding outfielders around him, and a lock on the job...he could explode.
He does have that upside.
#11
Posted by Dave Zimmer, December 15, 2008 8:52 PM
I have watched virtually every Indians game that Gutz has played. He is an outstanding fielder in right. While supposedly a pure centerfielder he never had the opportunity due to two time gold glover Grady Sizemore. Unfortunately he has very poor plate discipline and is unable to hit any pitch that is not straight. He had many opportunites and was never able to consistently warrant continuous playing time. He is a sucker for the outside breaking pitch. He does not walk and strikes out way too much. You will be amazed at how many pitches he misses. While I'm not aware of an actual stat his % of swings and misses appears to be unusually high. It is very noticable when you watch him every day. He would strike out in any situation. Never seemed to be any ryme or reason for them. In my opinion this is a great deal for the Tribe as I believe by the end of next year Gutz will be exposed as agreat defender who will never hit major league pitching. A change of scenery may help, but his plate discipline and inability to make contact is so bad that i can not imagine much improvement.
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