We’ve reached the point in the NFL season where the Redskins need to be treating their team not as playoff contenders, but as resources with respect towards the next team with a chance to make the playoffs.

While these might sound like the words of a man who is ready to give up on the season, I write from a perspective that really is not much different from the status quo. Nothing that will be suggested in this analysis should overshadow the need for this team to make corrections in the short term and salvage some wins in a division that, for everyone but the Redskins, is very much up for grabs. But the Redskins, more than any other team in the division, need to understand what is working and what is not working because the only thing that’s been proven in the NFC East over the first half of the 2009 season is that the Redskins need to make big changes to their football equation.

This three part series will compare where the Redskins are right now to other teams around the league who also need to make those changes, and I’ll be taking a cursory look at free agents and draft eligible college seniors to try to forecast exactly where the Redskins sit in terms of the market right now.

All assumptions made will be based on the “uncapped year” premise.

NFL Quarterback Market

The 2010 offseason quarterback market appears to include 10 to 12 NFL teams ranging from the teams who are starting players on the verge of retirement (Kurt Warner and Brett Fav…actually just Warner), to teams like Jacksonville and San Francisco who have somewhat young in-house options at the quarterback position, but might choose to go in a different direction. The number of quarterbacks who actually have expiring contracts, who also would be eligible for unrestricted free agency is very limited, but a market for quarterbacks is nearly certain to be created by the uncapped year. Problem is, every quarterback in the market (sans Chad Pennington and Daunte Culpepper) will have to have been released from his contract.

There’s also a significant quarterback trade market that appears to be developing, of which Jason Campbell will be a part of, along with Brady Quinn, Matt Leinart, Alex Smith (possibly), Vince Young, and Kellen Clemens. While none of these players are headed for unrestricted free agency, they all range from age 25 in 2010 (Quinn) to age 28 (Campbell). If Pennington chooses not to retire, he will land somewhere as a starter, and at starter quality money.

This also sets the freely available talent market with names like Marc Bulger, Shaun Hill, Daunte Culpepper, Byron Leftwich, Jake Delhomme, and Kerry Collins.

The most interesting name that could get released is Matt Hasselbeck. The scoop I’m hearing is that the Seahawks will either make a play for a player such as Campbell or Quinn, someone who could take over the offense next year, or they will address this position in the draft. It’s unclear what will happen to Hasselbeck, but the Seahawks may choose to use the uncapped year to rid themselves of what has become a cumbersome contract. Hasselbeck will be 35 next September, so it’s most likely that he will end up wherever Mike Holmgren lands, as a potential placeholder for a rookie second round draft pick in that city.

The NFL draft QB market is going to force a lot of names to a backup role. Those six veterans listed in the freely available column are unlikely to land anywhere in a starting capacity, and as mentioned above, Hasselbeck likely ends up somewhere starting in name only, on a team that is starting over.

Just to put faces in new places: lets’ project Jason Campbell to Arizona, Brady Quinn to Minnesota, Matt Hasselbeck to Cleveland, and Matt Leinart to Seattle. None of that is based on any insider information, and the locations aren’t really relevant. It’s just to pull some names out of the market of players for the QBs in the draft. Given the above, it gives Cleveland an option (but not the obligation) to pass on a quarterback in the first round of the draft. A team like St. Louis is probably set on taking a quarterback, no matter what, which may be the only reason they aren’t likely to get involved in the trade market. With Tennessee and Oakland liable to jump in as well, it makes the market for the top-end quarterback talent very heated, which means that where the Redskins are picking (looks like the 6 to 9 range at this point), there won’t be a very good chance of getting into the action.

To summarize: the draft market will be highly competitive ahead of where the Redskins are picking, but at the point where they are likely to choose, there will be plenty of competent prospects they could “reach” on, but the truth of the matter is that the prospects available at where the Redskins pick in the first round aren’t appreciably better than the ones that will be available in the second round. However, if the Redskins are willing to shoulder additional financial risk (in the form of Sam Bradford’s shoulder, or say, Tim Tebow’s slow release), they can land a potential franchise quarterback with their first round pick. As the free agent or trade market breaks down, you’re giving up the chance at that franchise QB, but you gain the benefit of the “option year,” which would allow the Redskins to address QB via the draft in 2011.

The big picture: if the Redskins aren’t willing to risk the next three years of opportunity cost behind a high-risk, high-reward rookie QB (which assumes that no one ahead of them is willing to take a greater financial risk on the same players), the only way to get improved quarterback play is to throw significant money at Chad Pennington to be the quarterback for the next two years. Even there, you’re looking at a lot of money for a guy who, historically, can’t stay healthy. Plan B is to use the second round pick to either trade up for the system QB of preference, or take the best available player.

NFL Running Back Market

The draft class at running back is conditionally strong, depending on how many juniors declare for NFL draft riches. Unlike at quarterback, however, the number of teams that need to add a top-level running back is somewhat limited. The Redskins are in this group, however, as their need for a RB at this point is at least as great as their need for a QB.

Running Backs are no longer considered to be a premium position in the NFL, but that doesn’t mean that runners can’t also be premium players.

The free agent market offers names like Ricky Williams, Willie Parker, and I’ll throw Darren Sproles in here since he is currently under the franchise tag, and would cost eight figures for the Chargers to keep as an RFA. The Chargers, of course, are one of the teams that needs to address their RB position in the draft, and 11 million is a lot of money to pay for a complementary running back. Laurence Maroney could be a release candidate in New England as well.

With the exception of Sproles, none of those players truly offer a long term solution for any team, so it looks like it’s the draft or bust for seven plus teams: Washington, San Diego, NY Giants, Houston, Buffalo, Cleveland, Seattle, and then debateably Atlanta, Green Bay, and Miami.

It’s enough of a demand where the Redskins might not have their pick of running back should they wait until the second round. But because of the RB fungibility concept, the market for this position does not figure to ever really heat up. Historically, first round quality backs have been available very early in round two, which is the position at which the team should first be considering that this position be addressed. If you bring in people who are very good at finding RBs (or at least better than Vinny Cerrato), however, a fourth or even a fifth round pick is sufficient to find that one guy who makes the position a strength.

The Big Picture: Whereas the Quarterback market looks highly competitive, the running back market appears to be a buyer’s market, although if a bunch of top-end juniors return to college, a bunch of teams could decide that these might not have such a huge need here after all.

NFL Wide Receivers Market

Similar to the running backs, the receivers are not a particularly strong draft class, but gets a lot better if you include underclassmen–Oklahoma State’s Dez Bryant seems particularly likely to declare following an NCAA violation. The free agent market is comprised of soon-to-retire vets (Terrell Owens/Derrick Mason/Issac Bruce), and complementary receivers (Josh Reed/Arnaz Battle), and Antonio Bryant, who is clearly the cream of the crop.

Unlike the running backs, there are certain to be salary dumps at receiver of players who could be valuable to a team. The Eagles could cut the cord on Kevin Curtis’ contract, the Cowboys could kill off Roy Williams’ dead weight, Steve Smith’s (of the Panthers) name could legitimately surface in trade discussion. The Jags could cut bait with Torry Holt after one year. Anquan Boldin still wants to be traded. It’s hard to see the Raiders extending the Javon Walker experiment any longer. I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that Randy Moss will be back in New England for the last year of his contract. Don’t you forget about Chad Ochocinco either.

What’s clear is that this years’ receiver market will be set by the satisfaction level of the NFL’s brand of divas. Following the model popularized by the Giants and Texans, every team would love to draft and develop it’s own receivers. But for some teams, like the Redskins, it just hasn’t worked out that way.

Some teams who will certainly be more inclined to enter the competitive area of the receivers market include the Patriots, Bills, Jaguars, Ravens, Chiefs, Cowboys, Falcons, Panthers, Bucs, Bears, Rams, and possibly Titans. That looks like a long list, but given how wildly the type of scheme can affect who will fit in the offense, it’s worth pointing out that 2/3rds of the league looks set at this position for 2010.

The Big Picture: Unlike QB and RB, which must be addressed one way or another no matter who the next head coach is, the Redskins may or may not be in the market for a receiver. You could see the team use a first round pick there if they fall for Brandon Lafell of LSU, or for Dez Bryant, but in most cases, you’ll likely see the Redskins avoid this position in the draft, opting instead to look at players released by other teams.

The Redskins appear to be looking at a highly competitive quarterback market, a relatively non-competitive running back market, and a wide receiver market that will be somewhere in the middle, but set by the going rate of disgruntled “stars”.

Part II to come this weekend, as we look at the market for offensive lineman.